Well's Draw, Utah  - ut527 
Additional Information 
Steve Gray             

Purpose of Collection: Climatology - Snowpack reconstruction

Reference: 
Pederson, G.T., S.T. Gray, C.A. Woodhouse, J.L. Betancourt, D.B. Fagre, 
J.S. Littell, E. Watson, B.H. Luckman, and L.J. Graumlich. 2011. 
The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. 
Sciencexpress, Published online 9 June 2011. 
DOI: 10.1126/science.1201570

COFECHA output: 



      Chronology file name   : UT527.CRN
      Measurement file name  : UT527.RWL
      Date checked           : 07JUN11
      Checked by             : B. Bauer
      Beginning year         :  887
      Ending year            : 2001
      Principal investigators: Steve Gray                               
      Site name              : Well's Draw
      Site location          : Utah         
      Species information    : PIED PINYON
      Latitude               :   3950
      Longitude              : -11010
      Elevation              : 2145M

      Series intercorrelation: 0.824
      Avg mean sensitivity   : 0.436
      Avg standard deviation : 0.101
      Avg autocorrelation    : 0.549
      Number dated series    : 31
      Segment length tested  : 50

      Number problem segments: 0
      Pct problem segments   : 0.00



 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw                                           16:55  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   5

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span    950  975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425

                          999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 1374 1399 1424 1449 1474

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

   5 wed401a  1416 2001                                                                                             .82  .82

   6 wed404b  1392 2000                                                                                        .69  .65  .70

   7 wed412a  1363 1772                                                                                   .65  .68  .74  .56

   9 wed403a  1272 1750                                                               .81  .86  .87  .86  .84  .85  .83  .83

  10 wed730b  1262 1578                                                               .78  .83  .82  .85  .85  .84  .88  .87

  11 wed535b  1396 2001                                                                                        .80  .80  .83

  13 wed531a   887 2001   .58  .55  .41  .63  .78  .54  .52  .70  .57  .59  .82  .83  .76  .61  .65  .80  .86  .83  .83  .88

  14 wed534a   952 2001   .65  .66  .47  .66  .77  .69  .70  .76  .83  .85  .71  .56  .75  .82  .71  .71  .77  .82  .81  .73

  15 wed411b  1357 1817                                                                                   .89  .84  .83  .88

  16 wed533a  1346 2001                                                                              .88  .90  .85  .84  .90

  18 wed731b  1337 1953                                                                              .76  .82  .75  .75  .80

  19 wed411a  1329 1823                                                                              .78  .85  .84  .86  .90

  20 wed729b  1290 1651                                                                    .77  .76  .92  .83  .68  .76  .85

  21 wed533b  1339 2001                                                                              .84  .86  .84  .84  .87

  24 wed535a  1420 2001                                                                                             .89  .89

  25 wed813b  1279 1668                                                                    .73  .74  .81  .87  .83  .85  .91

  27 wed403b  1307 1636                                                                         .84  .88  .96  .94  .93  .93

  28 wed534c  1154 1398                                           .74  .83  .87  .79  .80  .77  .71  .84  .87

  29 wed534b  1061 1447                       .79  .76  .82  .76  .79  .86  .81  .71  .64  .55  .62  .85  .87  .88  .84

  30 wed730a  1213 1546                                                     .79  .80  .73  .81  .83  .85  .85  .87  .89  .86

  31 wed730d  1190 1682                                                .79  .80  .81  .83  .87  .84  .82  .80  .84  .89  .86

 Av segment correlation   .62  .60  .44  .64  .78  .66  .68  .74  .73  .78  .80  .75  .76  .76  .76  .83  .84  .81  .83  .83

 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw                                           16:55  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   6

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span   1450 1475 1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925

                         1499 1524 1549 1574 1599 1624 1649 1674 1699 1724 1749 1774 1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

   1 wed727a  1888 2000                                                                                        .62  .91  .92

   2 wed536b  1890 2001                                                                                        .78  .84  .88

   3 wed527a  1455 2001   .67  .86  .68  .73  .83  .64  .60  .78  .83  .84  .84  .84  .90  .90  .86  .86  .87  .83  .85  .89

   4 wed728a  1559 2001                       .78  .81  .83  .86  .90  .90  .81  .85  .92  .92  .90  .90  .90  .75  .76  .83

   5 wed401a  1416 2001   .88  .80  .81  .87  .63  .65  .76  .78  .82  .75  .70  .81  .88  .90  .89  .88  .88  .82  .79  .86

   6 wed404b  1392 2000   .76  .72  .69  .75  .79  .74  .74  .82  .77  .78  .81  .81  .84  .88  .83  .83  .83  .73  .74  .81

   7 wed412a  1363 1772   .56  .77  .81  .77  .51  .51  .73  .78  .81  .82  .77  .80

   8 wed531d  1475 2001        .85  .88  .86  .88  .83  .81  .85  .86  .88  .89  .90  .93  .93  .91  .92  .92  .91  .89  .87

   9 wed403a  1272 1750   .87  .92  .89  .85  .84  .82  .84  .82  .83  .82  .82  .82

  10 wed730b  1262 1578   .83  .81  .79  .84  .84

  11 wed535b  1396 2001   .90  .75  .70  .87  .85  .80  .80  .86  .92  .88  .89  .93  .94  .91  .89  .91  .89  .86  .88  .90

  12 wed404a  1487 1980        .88  .82  .73  .78  .71  .72  .82  .87  .85  .75  .79  .90  .89  .87  .88  .87  .77  .67  .68

  13 wed531a   887 2001   .89  .89  .87  .87  .92  .90  .89  .90  .90  .85  .87  .88  .91  .92  .89  .88  .88  .88  .91  .90

  14 wed534a   952 2001   .73  .81  .80  .83  .89  .88  .82  .80  .87  .88  .85  .83  .88  .87  .87  .90  .85  .67  .82  .84

  15 wed411b  1357 1817   .90  .90  .87  .83  .79  .83  .88  .86  .86  .87  .86  .84  .88  .79

  16 wed533a  1346 2001   .90  .91  .67  .70  .89  .88  .87  .84  .82  .70  .62  .76  .90  .87  .83  .83  .86  .94  .91  .90

  17 wed811q  1543 2001                  .86  .85  .87  .83  .87  .92  .87  .84  .85  .88  .86  .86  .89  .91  .84  .87  .90

  18 wed731b  1337 1953   .77  .71  .70  .53  .38  .57  .74  .71  .72  .54  .54  .69  .76  .79  .70  .65  .70  .80  .78  .73

  19 wed411a  1329 1823   .89  .91  .91  .91  .89  .83  .80  .84  .89  .87  .89  .87  .88  .95

  20 wed729b  1290 1651   .88  .90  .90  .81  .82  .90  .86  .83

  21 wed533b  1339 2001   .89  .89  .87  .83  .85  .88  .85  .83  .79  .79  .89  .92  .92  .92  .91  .84  .82  .87  .91  .91

  22 wed529a  1641 2001                                      .81  .82  .89  .92  .91  .92  .94  .94  .94  .92  .92  .92  .94

  23 wed529b  1624 2001                                 .81  .82  .81  .81  .84  .86  .91  .91  .88  .90  .92  .92  .91  .94

  24 wed535a  1420 2001   .86  .86  .90  .90  .90  .83  .79  .84  .84  .88  .92  .94  .93  .91  .93  .93  .91  .89  .91  .85

  25 wed813b  1279 1668   .88  .83  .83  .86  .85  .82  .79  .73

  26 wed401b  1471 2001   .73  .77  .82  .83  .71  .68  .74  .82  .85  .82  .72  .81  .89  .89  .90  .86  .85  .79  .77  .85

  27 wed403b  1307 1636   .90  .91  .91  .92  .87  .90  .91

  30 wed730a  1213 1546   .88  .87  .84

  31 wed730d  1190 1682   .87  .83  .82  .88  .88  .72  .66  .83  .88

 Av segment correlation   .83  .84  .82  .82  .80  .78  .79  .82  .85  .82  .81  .84  .89  .89  .87  .87  .87  .82  .84  .86

 PART 5:  CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: Well's Draw                                           16:55  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page   7

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Correlations of  50-year dated segments, lagged  25 years

 Flags:  A = correlation under   .3281 but highest as dated;  B = correlation higher at other than dated position



 Seq Series  Time_span   1950 1975

                         1999 2024

 --- -------- ---------  ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

   1 wed727a  1888 2000   .64  .57

   2 wed536b  1890 2001   .85  .87

   3 wed527a  1455 2001   .80  .82

   4 wed728a  1559 2001   .85  .85

   5 wed401a  1416 2001   .85  .86

   6 wed404b  1392 2000   .74  .70

   8 wed531d  1475 2001   .87  .87

  11 wed535b  1396 2001   .91  .90

  12 wed404a  1487 1980   .71

  13 wed531a   887 2001   .86  .87

  14 wed534a   952 2001   .71  .74

  16 wed533a  1346 2001   .86  .88

  17 wed811q  1543 2001   .86  .87

  21 wed533b  1339 2001   .78  .81

  22 wed529a  1641 2001   .87  .88

  23 wed529b  1624 2001   .88  .88

  24 wed535a  1420 2001   .73  .76

  26 wed401b  1471 2001   .88  .89

 Av segment correlation   .81  .82

 PART 7:  DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: Well's Draw                                                      16:55  Tue 07 Jun 2011  Page  13

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



                                                Corr   //-------- Unfiltered --------\\  //---- Filtered -----\\

                           No.    No.    No.    with   Mean   Max     Std   Auto   Mean   Max     Std   Auto  AR

 Seq Series   Interval   Years  Segmt  Flags   Master  msmt   msmt    dev   corr   sens  value    dev   corr  ()

 --- -------- ---------  -----  -----  -----   ------ -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --

   1 wed727a  1888 2000    113      5      0    .647    .26    .53   .104   .380   .434   2.74   .435  -.005   1

   2 wed536b  1890 2001    112      5      0    .829    .23    .44   .084   .377   .363   2.57   .477  -.027   1

   3 wed527a  1455 2001    547     22      0    .810    .25    .81   .116   .494   .400   2.64   .347   .010   1

   4 wed728a  1559 2001    443     18      0    .846    .21    .55   .080   .257   .402   2.75   .393   .004   2

   5 wed401a  1416 2001    586     24      0    .815    .17    .42   .076   .581   .366   2.64   .388   .026   1

   6 wed404b  1392 2000    609     25      0    .761    .23    .70   .108   .694   .358   2.44   .285   .001   1

   7 wed412a  1363 1772    410     16      0    .691    .24    .59   .088   .568   .300   2.49   .305   .015   6

   8 wed531d  1475 2001    527     21      0    .885    .21    .65   .118   .545   .506   2.69   .388   .022   1

   9 wed403a  1272 1750    479     20      0    .848    .22    .77   .118   .704   .386   2.63   .388   .006   1

  10 wed730b  1262 1578    317     13      0    .836    .19    .67   .110   .722   .407   2.44   .335  -.011   1

  11 wed535b  1396 2001    606     25      0    .866    .24    .94   .148   .507   .484   2.93   .427   .010   1

  12 wed404a  1487 1980    494     20      0    .795    .20    .51   .079   .547   .340   2.56   .356   .019   1

  13 wed531a   887 2001   1115     42      0    .788    .17    .75   .104   .532   .540   2.55   .258  -.004   1

  14 wed534a   952 2001   1050     42      0    .786    .16    .70   .076   .585   .434   2.54   .338   .000   9

  15 wed411b  1357 1817    461     18      0    .851    .23    .73   .108   .686   .372   2.54   .341   .012   1

  16 wed533a  1346 2001    656     27      0    .847    .21    .61   .107   .606   .437   2.64   .330   .023   1

  17 wed811q  1543 2001    459     19      0    .862    .30    .85   .131   .501   .379   2.65   .367   .004   1

  18 wed731b  1337 1953    617     25      0    .725    .13    .28   .049   .416   .376   2.49   .294  -.010   1

  19 wed411a  1329 1823    495     19      0    .871    .20    .71   .122   .769   .402   2.48   .304   .014   1

  20 wed729b  1290 1651    362     15      0    .837    .23   1.00   .143   .617   .540   2.67   .440  -.006   1

  21 wed533b  1339 2001    663     27      0    .872    .20    .53   .103   .482   .525   2.72   .394   .026   1

  22 wed529a  1641 2001    361     15      0    .892    .23    .75   .114   .291   .540   2.64   .382  -.014   1

  23 wed529b  1624 2001    378     16      0    .882    .26    .78   .131   .447   .493   2.58   .373   .005   1

  24 wed535a  1420 2001    582     24      0    .890    .22    .59   .107   .339   .527   2.67   .410   .023   1

  25 wed813b  1279 1668    390     15      0    .819    .22    .73   .128   .698   .469   2.49   .352  -.006   1

  26 wed401b  1471 2001    531     22      0    .814    .17    .42   .071   .534   .363   2.60   .307   .018   1

  27 wed403b  1307 1636    330     13      0    .895    .19    .58   .099   .567   .482   2.63   .465   .004   1

  28 wed534c  1154 1398    245      9      0    .807    .13    .28   .052   .428   .433   2.43   .297  -.016   1

  29 wed534b  1061 1447    387     15      0    .782    .14    .32   .055   .432   .397   2.45   .279   .000   1

  30 wed730a  1213 1546    334     13      0    .855    .19    .67   .112   .729   .445   2.46   .320  -.016   1

  31 wed730d  1190 1682    493     20      0    .836    .19    .69   .115   .735   .448   2.54   .337  -.042   1

 --- -------- ---------  -----  -----  -----   ------ -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  --

 Total or mean:          15152    610      0    .824    .20   1.00   .101   .549   .436   2.93   .349   .005

