Pacific Decadal Oscillation Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Pacific Decadal Oscillation Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 2/2005 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Rosanne D'Arrigo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2005-020 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: D'Arrigo, R., et al. 2005. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2005-020. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: D'Arrigo, R., R. Villalba, and G. Wiles. 2001. Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dynamics, Volume 18, Numbers 3-4, pp. 219-224, December 2001. ABSTRACT: Decadal-scale oscillatory modes of atmosphere-ocean variability have recently been identified in instrumental studies of the Pacific sector. The regime shift around 1976 is one example of such a fluctuation, which has been shown to have significantly impacted climate and the environment along the coastline of the western N and S Americas. The length of meteorological data for the Pacific and western Americas critically limits analyses of such decadal-scale climate variability. Here we present reconstructions of the annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index based on western North American tree-ring records which account for up to 53% of the instrumental variance and extend as far back as AD 1700. The PDO reconstructions indicate that decadal-scale climatic shifts have occurred prior to the period of instrumental record. Evaluation of temperature and precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series from the northeast Pacific as well as these reconstructions reveals evidence for a shift towards less pronounced interdecadal variability after about the middle 1800s. Our analyses also suggest that sites from both the northeast Pacific coast as well as the subtropical Americas need to be included in proxy data sets used to reconstruct the PDO. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Pacific Ocean PERIOD OF RECORD: 1700 - 1979 AD DESCRIPTION: D'Arrigo et al. 2001 Tree-ring based Pacific Decadal Oscillation Reconstruction. The reconstruction is based on tree-ring data from the PDO-sensitive regions of coastal Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (temperature sensitive sites) and subtropical North America (precipitation sensitive sites). Most of the tree ring data are available from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html Precipitation-sensitive sites are gridpoint PDSI reconstructions of Cook et al. 1999: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/newpdsi.html Temperature Sensitive Tree-ring sites: Eyak Mt., AK 60 36' N 145 40' W Nichawak Mt., AK 60 15' N 143 58' W Exit Glacier, AK 60 12' N 149 35' W Water Supply, AK 60 07' N 149 28' W Ellsworth, AK 60 05' N 148 58' W Rock Glacier, AK 60 04' N 148 50' W Hemlock Knob, AK 59 29' N 139 08' W Verstovia, AK 57 03' N 135 16' W Barlow Pass, OR 45 00' N 121 00' W Two PDO index reconstruction series and 1900-1997 AD instrumental PDO are presented. The 1790-1979 AD series is based on all 11 tree ring predictors. The 1700-1979 AD series is based on 8 of the predictors which extend to AD 1700. DATA: D'Arrigo et al. 2001 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Reconstructions YEAR 1700 recon 1790 recon actualPDO 1700 0.2146 1701 -0.1672 1702 -0.4883 1703 0.2607 1704 -0.277 1705 -0.0881 1706 0.5387 1707 -0.3202 1708 -0.2541 1709 -0.745 1710 0.5914 1711 0.3363 1712 0.9336 1713 0.5002 1714 0.1069 1715 -0.1303 1716 0.0138 1717 0.1495 1718 0.769 1719 0.8237 1720 0.3046 1721 0.6899 1722 -0.1422 1723 0.8376 1724 -0.8493 1725 -0.0375 1726 -0.4278 1727 -0.1475 1728 -0.1632 1729 -0.3941 1730 -0.6755 1731 -0.5048 1732 -0.5657 1733 -0.3386 1734 0.2246 1735 0.5735 1736 0.2579 1737 0.6714 1738 0.1345 1739 -0.9327 1740 0.2925 1741 -0.532 1742 -1.3111 1743 -0.9875 1744 -1.1283 1745 -0.6958 1746 -0.0825 1747 0.6762 1748 -0.4642 1749 -0.7148 1750 -0.6263 1751 -0.1207 1752 -1.8356 1753 -0.3575 1754 -1.8575 1755 -0.6508 1756 -0.3883 1757 -0.4432 1758 -0.0681 1759 0.1656 1760 -0.0782 1761 0.442 1762 0.2266 1763 -0.2611 1764 -0.4056 1765 0.0735 1766 -0.0531 1767 -0.5114 1768 0.0377 1769 0.0578 1770 -0.0695 1771 0.1445 1772 -0.1296 1773 0.1159 1774 0.4607 1775 0.4345 1776 0.2466 1777 0.2321 1778 -0.8358 1779 -0.8108 1780 0.034 1781 -0.8829 1782 -0.6094 1783 -0.3197 1784 -0.072 1785 -1.0617 1786 -0.7987 1787 -1.0543 1788 0.2292 1789 -0.49 1790 -0.6736 -1.5795 1791 0.1622 -0.6864 1792 0.6586 0.096 1793 0.9027 0.0857 1794 0.6692 -0.3098 1795 0.8864 -0.0851 1796 0.69 -0.7514 1797 -0.2014 -0.8402 1798 0.1734 -0.9028 1799 0.0708 -0.6355 1800 -0.1892 -0.3423 1801 -1.5441 -1.2383 1802 -0.0337 0.1934 1803 0.0375 0.2673 1804 -0.2977 0.2412 1805 -0.4026 -0.1057 1806 -0.5954 -0.4608 1807 -0.2189 -0.3489 1808 -0.599 -0.714 1809 -1.3357 -1.0206 1810 -0.9488 -1.3919 1811 -0.8736 -1.0822 1812 -0.4501 -0.998 1813 -1.1997 -0.9381 1814 -0.4371 -0.2913 1815 -0.8092 -0.4846 1816 0.0926 0.6849 1817 -0.7573 -0.7372 1818 -0.3871 -0.4324 1819 -1.1192 -1.3887 1820 -0.7833 -1.2187 1821 -0.845 -0.8523 1822 -0.2557 -0.2197 1823 -1.2144 -0.8186 1824 -0.6909 -0.2722 1825 -0.0945 0.4308 1826 0.3806 0.4189 1827 -0.0807 -0.1614 1828 0.1749 0.2965 1829 0.494 0.8233 1830 0.2117 -0.1678 1831 0.3008 -0.344 1832 0.3592 -0.0357 1833 0.5665 0.2717 1834 0.655 0.2011 1835 0.7152 0.41 1836 0.1664 -0.0196 1837 -0.5351 -0.413 1838 0.0741 0.0044 1839 0.2318 0.4025 1840 -0.3719 -0.5638 1841 -0.7097 -0.7134 1842 -0.475 -0.6161 1843 -0.3515 -0.3006 1844 0.0099 0.1538 1845 0.3295 0.3242 1846 0.7414 0.1717 1847 0.0792 -0.4724 1848 0.8059 0.5676 1849 -0.4623 -0.5563 1850 0.6792 0.0889 1851 0.2047 -0.0507 1852 0.1928 -0.1269 1853 0.4274 0.006 1854 -0.5223 -0.9022 1855 -0.3447 -0.5251 1856 -0.073 -0.245 1857 -0.5542 -0.9064 1858 -0.0029 -0.1929 1859 -0.8813 -1.1657 1860 -0.5781 -0.7854 1861 -0.6466 -0.2584 1862 -1.4419 -1.4847 1863 -0.7267 -1.0043 1864 -0.5703 -0.6203 1865 -0.8129 -0.6317 1866 -0.6942 -0.6282 1867 -0.9659 -0.6015 1868 -0.3858 -0.1778 1869 0.5139 0.3646 1870 0.0055 -0.1151 1871 -0.1822 -0.5845 1872 -0.484 -0.6777 1873 -0.0446 -0.1292 1874 -0.1121 -0.0709 1875 0.2379 -0.3024 1876 -0.0783 -1.0285 1877 0.0971 -0.6164 1878 0.4098 0.0515 1879 -0.4461 -0.3513 1880 -0.8713 -0.9321 1881 -0.5019 -0.1183 1882 0.1816 -0.0735 1883 0.7077 -0.1856 1884 -0.3176 -0.4164 1885 0.5021 0.46 1886 -0.6465 -0.6663 1887 -0.8785 -1.1488 1888 0.0874 0.0851 1889 0.3006 0.1658 1890 -0.8726 -0.9201 1891 -0.0334 -0.0124 1892 -0.3645 -0.2741 1893 -1.367 -1.1526 1894 -0.7419 -0.8137 1895 -0.3321 -0.2558 1896 -0.3948 -0.6409 1897 -0.0968 -0.4892 1898 -0.0868 -0.3275 1899 -1.0041 -0.7815 1900 0.1946 0.2345 0.45 1901 -0.2811 -0.1373 -0.13 1902 -0.2787 0.0133 0.77 1903 0.5212 0.5933 0.16 1904 -0.2366 -0.5416 -0.25 1905 0.3258 0.6994 0.64 1906 0.0798 0.3459 0.49 1907 -0.1294 -0.2582 0.12 1908 0.2262 0.2692 0.38 1909 -0.7731 -0.9629 -0.12 1910 0.1081 -0.4307 -0.08 1911 0.1341 0.0299 -0.16 1912 -0.0905 -0.0847 0.15 1913 -0.2455 -0.2309 0.57 1914 0.2053 0.0602 0.16 1915 0.6539 0.6162 0.18 1916 -0.4013 -0.4903 -0.51 1917 0.094 -0.3807 -0.43 1918 -0.457 -0.5053 -0.14 1919 0.1869 0.2191 -0.1 1920 -0.5776 -0.6022 -0.91 1921 -0.1519 0.1811 -0.1 1922 -0.7322 -0.4165 -0.2 1923 0.1426 0.4377 0.48 1924 0.5881 0.7406 0.14 1925 -0.3254 0.31 0.19 1926 0.9737 1.0996 1.16 1927 -0.5474 -0.3116 0.14 1928 0.3458 0.5566 0.16 1929 -0.6856 -0.1732 0.4 1930 0.3761 0.5454 -0.1 1931 1.2025 0.993 0.74 1932 0.23 -0.3658 -0.02 1933 0.0865 0.1626 -0.68 1934 0.4123 0.4425 1.18 1935 0.3421 0.6397 0.8 1936 1.1218 1.2125 1.73 1937 0.0014 -0.0812 0.32 1938 0.2125 0.1608 0.16 1939 -0.3823 -0.1574 0.06 1940 0.5073 0.4248 1.77 1941 1.0316 1.173 1.99 1942 0.5889 0.3722 0.47 1943 0.6074 0.3558 0.11 1944 0.1362 0.2432 -0.13 1945 -0.2986 -0.1844 -0.19 1946 -0.7212 0.1071 -0.58 1947 0.0036 0.1732 0.5 1948 -0.6723 -0.4418 -0.87 1949 -0.3165 -0.4081 -1.23 1950 -0.919 -0.7187 -1.81 1951 -0.1312 -0.2331 -0.77 1952 -0.265 -0.343 -0.87 1953 -0.5143 -0.2779 -0.16 1954 -1.0872 -0.918 -0.29 1955 -1.2527 -1.2802 -1.95 1956 -0.5514 -0.7657 -1.8 1957 0.0024 -0.1895 0.23 1958 0.3191 -0.086 0.64 1959 -0.2864 -0.4743 -0.03 1960 -0.2481 -0.4471 0.06 1961 0.0942 -0.0427 -0.82 1962 -0.6851 -0.506 -1.16 1963 -0.0634 0.0827 -0.69 1964 -0.7925 -0.4915 -0.77 1965 -0.4461 -0.1385 -0.31 1966 -0.327 -0.2561 -0.46 1967 -0.1446 -0.5661 -0.73 1968 0.082 -0.4269 -0.4 1969 -0.1571 -0.5642 -0.1 1970 -0.3328 -0.7283 -0.4 1971 -0.8897 -1.4218 -1.29 1972 0.1462 -0.7258 -0.92 1973 -0.0709 -0.4542 -0.8 1974 -0.4046 -0.799 -0.34 1975 -0.357 -0.2871 -1.1 1976 -0.2611 -0.3117 0.01 1977 0.1264 0.2734 0.23 1978 -0.7105 -0.4575 0.24 1979 0.2328 0.7493 0.33 1980 0.6 1981 0.92 1982 -0.23 1983 1.28 1984 0.48 1985 0.09 1986 0.85 1987 1.43 1988 0.18 1989 -0.51 1990 -0.67 1991 -0.75 1992 0.57 1993 1.04 1994 -0.46 1995 0.31 1996 0.31 1997 1.12