Southwestern Turkey Spring Precipitation Reconstructions ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Southwestern Turkey Spring Precipitation Reconstructions LAST UPDATE: 6/2003 (Original Receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Ramzi Touchan, University of Arizona IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2003-039 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Touchan, R., et al., 2003, Southwestern Turkey Spring Precipitation Reconstructions, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2003-039. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Touchan, R., G.M. Garfin, D.M. Meko, G. Funkhouser, N. Erkan, M.K. Hughes, and B.S. Wallin, 2003, Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. International Journal of Climatology, 23:2, pp. 157-171, Feb. 2003. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Southwestern Turkey PERIOD OF RECORD: 1339-1998 AD DESCRIPTION: Two tree-ring-based reconstructions of spring (May-June) precipitation (mm) in southwestern Turkey. Multi-species reconstruction is based on 9 chreonologies, and extends from 1776-1998 AD. The J. excelsa reconstruction is based on 3 chronoogies, and extends from 1339-1998 AD. FUNDING SOURCE: National Science Foundation, USA. ABSTRACT: Two reconstructions of spring (May-June) precipitation have been developed for southwestern Turkey. The first reconstruction (1776-1998) was developed from principal components of nine chronologies of Cedrus libani, Juniperus excelsa, Pinus brutia, and Pinus nigra. The second reconstruction (1339-1998) was derived from principal components of three J. excelsa chronologies. Calibration and verification statistics of both reconstructions indicate reasonably accurate reconstruction of spring precipitation for southwestern Turkey, and show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation. The longest period of reconstructed spring drought, defined as consecutive years with less than 80% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1476-79). Only one drought event of this duration has occurred during the last six centuries. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a less than 33% probability that southwestern Turkey has experienced spring drought longer than 5 years in the past 660 years. Apart from the 1476-79 extended dry period, spring droughts of 3 years in length have only occurred from 1700 to the present. The longest reconstructed wet period, defined as consecutive years with more than 120% of normal May-June precipitation, was 4 years (1532-35). The absence of extended spring drought during the 16th and 17th centuries and the occurrence of extended wet spring periods during these centuries suggest a possible regime shift in climate. Preliminary analysis of links between large-scale climatic variation and these climate reconstructions shows that there is a relationship between extremes in spring precipitation and anomalous atmospheric circulation in the region. DATA: Southwestern Turkey Spring (may-June) Precipitation Reconstructions (mm). Note: Tree Ring chronologies used in this study are archived with the International Tree Ring Data Bank, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html Column 1: Year AD Column 2: J. excelsa May-June precipitation reconstruction (mm) based on 3 chronologies Column 3: Multi-species May-June precipitation reconstruction (mm) based on 9 chronologies Year 1339 Rec 1776 Rec 1339 99.376 1340 57.646 1341 106.915 1342 77.122 1343 77.808 1344 74.259 1345 73.116 1346 71.123 1347 55.351 1348 43.089 1349 73.14 1350 55.106 1351 83.568 1352 78.025 1353 50.634 1354 58.688 1355 72.909 1356 42.548 1357 76.217 1358 67.618 1359 83.927 1360 54.567 1361 59.279 1362 37.682 1363 94.645 1364 51.285 1365 83.691 1366 34.275 1367 57.591 1368 82.398 1369 58.669 1370 53.725 1371 56.159 1372 79.761 1373 47.995 1374 72.137 1375 32.641 1376 80.825 1377 71.083 1378 63.094 1379 74.391 1380 62.016 1381 72.029 1382 70.368 1383 59.482 1384 48.469 1385 80.323 1386 65.935 1387 106.386 1388 89.685 1389 47.012 1390 98.832 1391 50.067 1392 59.194 1393 77.065 1394 69.939 1395 53.489 1396 75.141 1397 84.541 1398 83.718 1399 82.572 1400 41.332 1401 61.871 1402 67.768 1403 75.42 1404 86.035 1405 58.74 1406 64 1407 35.921 1408 58.615 1409 71.068 1410 62.181 1411 73.608 1412 43.535 1413 72.801 1414 34.799 1415 77.55 1416 66.831 1417 67.134 1418 73.781 1419 54.194 1420 53.231 1421 51.857 1422 58.824 1423 84.967 1424 74.278 1425 72.632 1426 74.925 1427 68.727 1428 84.613 1429 120.574 1430 53.356 1431 62.445 1432 74.614 1433 80.237 1434 45.4 1435 59.311 1436 49.594 1437 79.775 1438 73.716 1439 80.946 1440 36.459 1441 74.666 1442 116.034 1443 64.462 1444 54.164 1445 44.669 1446 52.355 1447 78.902 1448 74.46 1449 94.881 1450 64.298 1451 47.098 1452 73.419 1453 66.448 1454 54.406 1455 70.018 1456 71.81 1457 66.268 1458 83.109 1459 104.258 1460 70.654 1461 49.565 1462 62.393 1463 39.274 1464 97.726 1465 54.496 1466 75.57 1467 62.73 1468 54.984 1469 56.742 1470 84.06 1471 75.679 1472 81.661 1473 84.816 1474 65.124 1475 83.511 1476 46.383 1477 24.173 1478 52.477 1479 43.54 1480 89.067 1481 68.507 1482 65.097 1483 51.03 1484 77.848 1485 70.071 1486 50.345 1487 59.981 1488 38.506 1489 49.592 1490 65.725 1491 63.486 1492 70.198 1493 63.815 1494 70.203 1495 28.15 1496 74.904 1497 66.895 1498 68.397 1499 74.803 1500 81.351 1501 56.037 1502 55.812 1503 87.635 1504 107.732 1505 39.612 1506 71.115 1507 95.742 1508 78.592 1509 56.768 1510 76.483 1511 91.744 1512 59.183 1513 74.054 1514 75.291 1515 61.224 1516 79.37 1517 51.31 1518 73.032 1519 104.952 1520 62.661 1521 56.401 1522 73.557 1523 83.224 1524 61.265 1525 90.363 1526 51.018 1527 67.847 1528 66.621 1529 46.131 1530 67.373 1531 58.111 1532 102.424 1533 96.668 1534 98.872 1535 89.735 1536 60.877 1537 61.316 1538 65.983 1539 84.951 1540 42.126 1541 61.637 1542 57.978 1543 61.88 1544 61.159 1545 91.24 1546 63.418 1547 91.078 1548 49.474 1549 49.484 1550 89.814 1551 58.067 1552 80.406 1553 63.79 1554 71.824 1555 63.371 1556 86.134 1557 25.461 1558 46.368 1559 102.623 1560 50.265 1561 55.569 1562 50.315 1563 69.502 1564 96.788 1565 118.875 1566 79.344 1567 33.789 1568 71.986 1569 79.392 1570 58.867 1571 63.167 1572 62.597 1573 54.671 1574 101.489 1575 73.017 1576 80.471 1577 74.801 1578 74.047 1579 46.989 1580 64.182 1581 51.59 1582 52.118 1583 79.501 1584 74.049 1585 53.428 1586 80.845 1587 79.176 1588 57.33 1589 92.058 1590 66.52 1591 53.966 1592 49.622 1593 44.85 1594 56.042 1595 60.408 1596 53.23 1597 61.304 1598 64.338 1599 67.39 1600 41.213 1601 73.577 1602 86.812 1603 73.33 1604 63.523 1605 78.301 1606 61.418 1607 27.814 1608 33.8 1609 61.715 1610 80.812 1611 64.438 1612 58.848 1613 28.07 1614 52.341 1615 82.357 1616 87.643 1617 57.447 1618 65.134 1619 57.187 1620 69.815 1621 95.834 1622 61.603 1623 65.122 1624 37.298 1625 55.692 1626 69.492 1627 39.7 1628 60.717 1629 90.939 1630 79.999 1631 62.799 1632 52.294 1633 55.481 1634 84.224 1635 64.552 1636 82.399 1637 76.071 1638 99.202 1639 79.05 1640 92.074 1641 86.739 1642 41.987 1643 66.633 1644 41.124 1645 65.468 1646 68.422 1647 56.19 1648 92.375 1649 52.363 1650 45.204 1651 74.007 1652 57.715 1653 72.91 1654 49.531 1655 71.098 1656 66.038 1657 78.599 1658 47.783 1659 88.451 1660 64.569 1661 97.534 1662 64.416 1663 89.857 1664 56.067 1665 97.7 1666 75.528 1667 68.03 1668 67.252 1669 57.879 1670 64.362 1671 62.322 1672 58.358 1673 67.983 1674 62.843 1675 45.288 1676 41.558 1677 76.32 1678 86.121 1679 46.21 1680 62.083 1681 98.264 1682 71.611 1683 49.531 1684 67.911 1685 38.585 1686 72.466 1687 69.404 1688 101.18 1689 95.062 1690 95.657 1691 77.741 1692 82.986 1693 44.289 1694 67.136 1695 65.205 1696 62.99 1697 77.301 1698 58.702 1699 57.682 1700 55.678 1701 59.41 1702 63.945 1703 61.048 1704 73.017 1705 51.331 1706 91.207 1707 58.307 1708 68.572 1709 102.524 1710 31.786 1711 52.829 1712 72.78 1713 63.87 1714 78.561 1715 60.889 1716 45.634 1717 87.075 1718 73.568 1719 77.983 1720 83.798 1721 61.874 1722 78.552 1723 62.517 1724 79.994 1725 47.912 1726 56.352 1727 85.161 1728 96.838 1729 63.316 1730 43.721 1731 49.719 1732 51.635 1733 75.358 1734 72.105 1735 69.756 1736 88.715 1737 63.441 1738 56.881 1739 82.713 1740 55.03 1741 57.255 1742 48.436 1743 86.246 1744 88.67 1745 77.496 1746 15.945 1747 97.471 1748 62.877 1749 60.276 1750 44.606 1751 84.885 1752 89.786 1753 80.113 1754 86.31 1755 112.185 1756 43.818 1757 61.333 1758 79.316 1759 45.094 1760 75.144 1761 67.506 1762 77.957 1763 42.107 1764 35.339 1765 63.806 1766 60.758 1767 56.517 1768 48.338 1769 81.638 1770 55.615 1771 86.129 1772 45.342 1773 65.135 1774 69.489 1775 45.233 1776 72.371 66.238 1777 51.403 53.101 1778 85.387 92.868 1779 48.155 29.829 1780 75.809 79.037 1781 51.11 49.401 1782 47.962 55.412 1783 85.636 75.822 1784 79.613 63.175 1785 70.807 70.987 1786 41.207 57.527 1787 78.352 71.978 1788 111.201 106.231 1789 63.387 66.897 1790 61.273 58.838 1791 77.777 79.419 1792 63.298 77.222 1793 73.895 66.821 1794 64.672 58.155 1795 95.642 103.593 1796 27.1 28.746 1797 58.319 62.694 1798 83.634 84.308 1799 45.016 41.801 1800 83.878 70.462 1801 75.61 81.554 1802 55.264 60.306 1803 78.821 83.056 1804 86.243 85.896 1805 85.684 72.423 1806 70.027 69.762 1807 83.616 69.601 1808 49.054 47.108 1809 102.68 97.908 1810 77.788 67.856 1811 73.747 74.771 1812 67.472 64.53 1813 48.946 42.365 1814 49.456 45.483 1815 52.727 54.248 1816 89.562 86.643 1817 60.78 45.788 1818 61.1 64.416 1819 57.077 49.186 1820 44.822 38.839 1821 86.447 77.161 1822 43.053 42.761 1823 62.033 59.546 1824 43.51 43.238 1825 51.7 57.078 1826 77.078 70.214 1827 127.848 130.308 1828 74.556 70.799 1829 57.898 61.234 1830 48.161 49.419 1831 65.757 71.668 1832 86.625 92.166 1833 70.56 83.665 1834 64.654 54.639 1835 90.454 85.778 1836 66.995 62.273 1837 55.098 67.616 1838 64.486 61.093 1839 57.898 50.36 1840 52.892 36.947 1841 77.912 88.774 1842 56.633 62.818 1843 53.255 60.403 1844 56.988 63.592 1845 71.449 77.86 1846 72.759 79.701 1847 44.014 48.615 1848 85.523 93.292 1849 63.382 50.154 1850 54.163 49.536 1851 57.108 62.299 1852 63.024 61.259 1853 57.879 70.94 1854 55.925 45.16 1855 91.265 93.44 1856 64.02 48.211 1857 77.732 66.698 1858 62.052 59.625 1859 69.918 81.177 1860 73.599 69.404 1861 71.736 50.814 1862 62.263 67.74 1863 58.671 54.67 1864 81.979 83.755 1865 86.956 77.471 1866 81.088 84.772 1867 41.766 44.532 1868 49.608 58.508 1869 45.761 40.426 1870 61.531 53.133 1871 66.642 68.014 1872 74.056 78.438 1873 65.137 61.383 1874 54.831 44.405 1875 61.569 65.375 1876 93.069 108.694 1877 82.811 79.375 1878 72.504 60.796 1879 71.199 66.528 1880 51.601 48.474 1881 102.822 92.833 1882 61.094 58.708 1883 69.915 75.866 1884 79.521 79.271 1885 76.2 91.266 1886 80.477 65.896 1887 31.413 19.479 1888 78.168 80.469 1889 75.253 85.464 1890 51.934 45.018 1891 70.945 72.733 1892 87.525 84.084 1893 45.852 38.861 1894 61.883 59.454 1895 84.638 79.414 1896 62.968 62.221 1897 98.572 92.078 1898 27.843 27.613 1899 63.292 55.015 1900 79.768 84.945 1901 109.049 107.935 1902 69.038 63.421 1903 65.634 78.427 1904 64.975 72.716 1905 56.316 55.112 1906 76.968 71.858 1907 35.18 34.143 1908 39.776 45.265 1909 58.453 44.586 1910 73.102 80.711 1911 57.711 55.557 1912 70.444 65.363 1913 103.975 102.642 1914 89.677 99.125 1915 60.971 63.764 1916 52.584 43.776 1917 80.811 73.503 1918 54.716 47.509 1919 86.428 78.79 1920 40.548 44.964 1921 74.975 73.237 1922 62.441 66.028 1923 54.92 40.674 1924 67.517 80.243 1925 77.452 68.851 1926 43.544 44.119 1927 44.843 36.144 1928 52.192 44.275 1929 59.217 64.491 1930 111.829 115.056 1931 83.335 74.739 1932 43.812 38.728 1933 62.042 58.917 1934 57.706 62.298 1935 47.796 39.562 1936 95.108 103.836 1937 67.924 58.948 1938 43.306 35.673 1939 71.218 76.004 1940 75.873 82.353 1941 56.927 45.001 1942 57.803 51.886 1943 79.066 72.457 1944 71.494 74.997 1945 43.205 41.376 1946 95.146 89.228 1947 84.479 77.987 1948 44.607 49.311 1949 45.521 48.47 1950 101.111 92.562 1951 95.818 84.616 1952 70.182 94.035 1953 66.86 65.49 1954 56.168 55.738 1955 56.483 61.032 1956 70.032 65.615 1957 72.023 78.865 1958 90.811 95.562 1959 74.001 82.8 1960 90.498 97.348 1961 52.884 43.028 1962 60.513 57.175 1963 81.096 90.783 1964 54.973 53.717 1965 44.92 52.94 1966 55.41 63.658 1967 61.528 60.536 1968 61.774 63.953 1969 65.366 61.988 1970 62.18 74.335 1971 57.481 56.645 1972 78.33 89.07 1973 37.183 43.272 1974 71.761 68.104 1975 105.804 97.584 1976 57.223 68.336 1977 74.726 72.899 1978 39.986 46.342 1979 70.577 75.759 1980 49.007 41.552 1981 67.897 69.091 1982 57.199 63.742 1983 60.986 66.874 1984 43.942 42.324 1985 66.006 59.283 1986 82.381 75.349 1987 64.488 63.284 1988 59.353 56.913 1989 71.648 70.519 1990 75.853 80.799 1991 78.925 77.42 1992 98.931 96.203 1993 69.742 70.487 1994 62.383 59.6 1995 56.877 49.499 1996 56.888 55.075 1997 69.573 70.399 1998 95.728 87.905