RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1785 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 3.410 0.259 0.346 2.471 0.049 0.683 2 704012 1822 1983 162 3.161 0.187 0.552 3.434 0.041 0.618 3 704031 1836 1983 148 2.667 0.195 1.109 5.110 0.046 0.647 4 704032 1841 1983 143 2.720 0.255 -0.002 3.006 0.051 0.748 5 704041 1866 1983 118 3.057 0.192 1.628 8.540 0.051 0.383 6 704042 1873 1983 111 2.969 0.200 1.520 7.052 0.045 0.595 7 704051 1672 1983 312 3.535 0.320 1.694 6.669 0.046 0.760 8 704052 1673 1983 311 3.779 0.523 0.934 3.371 0.050 0.880 9 704061 1634 1983 350 3.036 0.200 0.196 2.703 0.042 0.674 10 704062 1621 1983 363 3.104 0.182 0.430 3.302 0.043 0.534 11 704071 1674 1983 310 3.503 0.320 0.935 4.051 0.048 0.747 12 704072 1663 1983 321 3.358 0.223 0.699 3.737 0.047 0.527 13 704081 1808 1983 176 3.322 0.206 0.552 3.371 0.036 0.730 14 704082 1635 1983 349 3.475 0.362 0.675 3.482 0.039 0.884 15 704091 1622 1983 362 3.519 0.463 0.722 3.202 0.052 0.844 16 704092 1663 1983 321 3.764 0.397 1.175 4.909 0.051 0.797 17 704101 1770 1983 214 4.099 0.346 1.641 6.969 0.048 0.700 18 704102 1767 1983 217 4.041 0.420 1.348 5.458 0.053 0.787 19 704111 1877 1983 107 3.398 0.259 0.543 3.174 0.055 0.598 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 3.597 0.415 0.658 2.751 0.051 0.852 21 704121 1672 1983 312 4.150 0.306 0.580 3.361 0.041 0.719 22 704122 1631 1983 353 4.121 0.395 1.155 4.906 0.041 0.839 23 704131 1577 1983 407 4.112 0.371 0.074 3.000 0.046 0.770 24 704132 1551 1983 433 4.135 0.391 1.249 6.862 0.052 0.717 25 704141 1637 1983 347 3.987 0.290 0.227 2.913 0.045 0.691 26 704142 1663 1983 321 4.038 0.392 1.063 5.257 0.050 0.766 27 704151 1796 1983 188 3.616 0.402 2.249 8.546 0.046 0.817 28 704152 1807 1983 177 3.567 0.297 -0.064 2.157 0.038 0.802 29 704171 1680 1983 304 3.598 0.314 0.798 4.051 0.044 0.774 30 704172 1778 1983 206 3.435 0.311 1.249 4.417 0.042 0.791 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 3.542 0.313 0.865 4.408 0.046 0.722 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.425 0.092 0.560 1.784 0.005 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 304 3.527 0.312 0.760 3.609 0.046 0.748 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 169 0.665 0.170 0.706 2.083 0.009 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 104 2.667 0.182 -0.064 2.157 0.036 0.383 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 3.322 0.223 0.543 3.174 0.042 0.674 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 3.987 0.392 1.249 5.257 0.051 0.797 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 4.150 0.523 2.249 8.546 0.055 0.884 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.146 0.250 0.012 -0.158 2.471 -0.536 0.727 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.536 SERIES 704082 AND 704152 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.727 SERIES 704082 AND 704091 349 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.204 0.108 0.413 0.321 0.306 0.191 0.180 0.147 0.228 0.289 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.204 0.268 0.245 0.284 0.269 0.326 0.296 0.328 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.045 0.051 0.022 0.026 0.025 0.030 0.023 0.022 EPS 0.404 0.405 0.879 0.872 0.876 0.790 0.787 0.762 0.865 0.911 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.228 0.245 0.213 0.216 SDEV 0.265 0.251 0.278 0.277 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.891 0.905 0.891 0.892 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 3.706 0.284 4.163 35.900 0.033 0.755 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.394 -0.244 1.352 46 387 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.25 1.00 1.05 1.30 17.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.753 0.587 0.508 0.458 0.443 0.430 0.395 0.356 0.347 0.341 PACF 0.753 0.046 0.119 0.070 0.108 0.063 0.006 0.005 0.065 0.033 95% C.L. 0.096 0.140 0.162 0.176 0.186 0.196 0.204 0.211 0.217 0.222 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.681 0.567 0.163 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 1 0.66995555 0.03565959 0.00000000 3.29724622 2 704012 1 0.42506078 0.01961781 0.00000000 3.03419495 3 704031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010365 2.65930510 4 704032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00339497 2.47514224 5 704041 1 0.42264667 0.09441900 0.00000000 3.02128673 6 704042 1 0.45749551 0.03243926 0.00000000 2.84723616 7 704051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065301 3.43251610 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00368280 3.20445347 9 704061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001356 3.03376269 10 704062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028932 3.15698147 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125280 3.30773616 12 704072 1 0.52623016 0.02797087 0.00000000 3.29987979 13 704081 1 0.49729383 0.05770411 0.00000000 3.27408361 14 704082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00219791 3.85959196 15 704091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00282399 4.07351589 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036991 3.82675457 17 704101 1 1.45391572 0.05521220 0.00000000 3.97891450 18 704102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00083087 3.95077181 19 704111 1 0.42988181 0.08957227 0.00000000 3.35815072 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00314521 3.33710527 21 704121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037385 4.20879602 22 704122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027589 4.16954088 23 704131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035620 4.03959560 24 704132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073321 3.97539687 25 704141 1 0.23767097 0.01653279 0.00000000 3.94605064 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027137 4.08191490 27 704151 1 1.94665885 0.06982603 0.00000000 3.47251987 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249444 3.34477472 29 704171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145851 3.37534070 30 704172 1 1.05907714 0.00510398 0.00000000 2.78099823 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.061 0.595 3.846 0.048 0.521 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.048 0.218 3.389 0.041 0.411 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.073 1.152 5.288 0.046 0.642 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.079 0.916 4.017 0.051 0.636 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.057 1.137 6.561 0.050 0.272 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.054 0.754 4.767 0.045 0.378 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.089 1.573 6.329 0.046 0.747 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.100 0.325 3.302 0.050 0.785 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.066 0.200 2.702 0.042 0.672 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.058 0.342 3.270 0.043 0.520 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.085 0.597 3.559 0.048 0.716 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.058 0.329 3.225 0.047 0.393 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.055 0.198 2.924 0.036 0.632 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.081 0.666 4.510 0.039 0.806 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.099 0.627 3.334 0.051 0.752 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.103 1.178 5.070 0.051 0.784 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.054 0.005 3.354 0.048 0.328 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.103 1.261 5.065 0.053 0.779 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.072 0.727 3.598 0.055 0.528 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.107 0.374 2.443 0.051 0.826 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.073 0.451 3.266 0.041 0.709 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.096 1.179 4.958 0.041 0.836 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.090 0.127 2.963 0.046 0.765 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.092 1.490 9.860 0.052 0.694 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.072 0.392 3.214 0.044 0.677 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.097 0.989 5.142 0.049 0.761 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.059 1.049 4.141 0.045 0.468 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.077 0.271 2.717 0.038 0.761 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.080 1.374 5.405 0.044 0.726 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.068 1.210 5.322 0.042 0.636 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.077 0.723 4.251 0.046 0.639 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.018 0.452 1.526 0.005 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.075 0.646 3.722 0.046 0.685 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.033 0.822 1.804 0.008 0.240 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.048 0.005 2.443 0.036 0.272 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.059 0.329 3.266 0.042 0.521 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.092 1.152 5.070 0.050 0.761 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.107 1.573 9.860 0.055 0.836 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.059 0.626 3.830 0.048 0.491 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.047 0.185 3.445 0.041 0.378 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.066 1.000 4.736 0.046 0.572 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.061 0.754 4.061 0.051 0.365 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.055 1.146 6.802 0.050 0.248 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.052 0.838 5.120 0.045 0.339 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.072 1.316 6.070 0.046 0.637 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.097 0.323 3.538 0.050 0.769 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.057 0.207 2.814 0.042 0.569 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.052 0.289 3.352 0.043 0.409 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.071 0.582 3.727 0.048 0.603 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.057 0.308 3.434 0.047 0.364 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.050 0.228 3.240 0.036 0.561 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.073 0.382 4.318 0.039 0.761 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.999 0.073 0.596 4.155 0.051 0.553 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.088 1.038 4.817 0.051 0.717 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.052 0.064 3.227 0.048 0.293 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.075 1.328 5.662 0.053 0.587 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.063 0.859 3.860 0.055 0.391 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.999 0.073 0.756 3.010 0.051 0.621 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.067 0.572 3.376 0.041 0.656 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.999 0.080 0.898 4.455 0.041 0.766 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.999 0.070 -0.164 3.600 0.046 0.621 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.086 1.427 9.228 0.052 0.660 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.064 0.500 3.625 0.044 0.596 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.083 0.706 5.013 0.049 0.679 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.049 0.843 4.317 0.045 0.265 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.042 0.334 2.994 0.038 0.247 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.071 1.144 4.801 0.044 0.658 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.061 0.942 5.174 0.042 0.562 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.066 0.668 4.327 0.046 0.531 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.013 0.403 1.334 0.005 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.065 0.666 3.960 0.046 0.570 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.018 0.619 1.383 0.008 0.278 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.999 0.042 -0.164 2.814 0.036 0.247 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.055 0.323 3.434 0.042 0.378 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.073 0.942 4.817 0.050 0.656 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.097 1.427 9.228 0.055 0.769 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.194 0.146 0.007 0.022 3.523 -0.373 0.677 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.373 SERIES 704031 AND 704052 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.677 SERIES 704031 AND 704032 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.172 0.022 0.415 0.316 0.309 0.214 0.195 0.167 0.256 0.262 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.229 0.249 0.237 0.259 0.246 0.265 0.289 0.268 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.047 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.024 0.022 0.018 EPS 0.355 0.113 0.880 0.870 0.877 0.813 0.802 0.789 0.882 0.899 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.235 0.280 0.239 0.233 SDEV 0.228 0.219 0.245 0.246 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.895 0.919 0.904 0.901 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.053 1.829 14.279 0.043 0.441 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.024 0.011 0.043 187 246 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.54 1.00 1.11 1.64 4.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.291 0.231 0.177 0.153 0.094 0.050 0.038 0.029 0.008 PACF 0.440 0.121 0.083 0.035 0.040 -0.020 -0.026 0.000 0.002 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.096 0.113 0.120 0.124 0.126 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.246 0.356 0.133 0.117 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.287 0.205 0.229 0.202 0.169 0.081 0.080 0.077 0.072 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.287 2 0.249 0.133 3 0.228 0.094 0.156 4 0.213 0.085 0.133 0.098 5 0.207 0.077 0.128 0.085 0.059 6 0.210 0.081 0.133 0.088 0.067 -0.038 7 0.210 0.081 0.133 0.088 0.067 -0.038 -0.001 8 0.210 0.081 0.133 0.087 0.066 -0.039 -0.002 0.007 9 0.209 0.081 0.134 0.086 0.064 -0.041 -0.004 0.003 0.021 10 0.210 0.081 0.134 0.085 0.065 -0.039 -0.001 0.005 0.026 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2233.49 2198.22 2192.49 2183.86 2181.72 2182.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2183.59 2185.59 2187.57 2189.38 2191.14 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.213 0.085 0.133 0.098 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.213 0.130 0.179 0.175 0.091 0.071 0.064 0.049 0.034 0.0269 0.021 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.0019 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 4 0.296 0.367 0.177 0.164 -0.078 2 704012 4 0.210 0.263 0.135 0.074 0.158 3 704031 4 0.352 0.492 0.124 0.009 0.029 4 704032 4 0.237 0.244 0.284 0.031 0.061 5 704041 4 0.081 0.241 0.053 -0.004 -0.113 6 704042 4 0.133 0.342 0.025 -0.118 -0.033 7 704051 4 0.437 0.527 0.081 0.120 0.004 8 704052 4 0.624 0.586 0.039 0.146 0.090 9 704061 4 0.387 0.393 0.221 0.111 -0.006 10 704062 4 0.266 0.249 0.148 0.231 0.049 11 704071 4 0.452 0.340 0.280 0.130 0.036 12 704072 4 0.169 0.290 0.158 0.041 0.037 13 704081 4 0.351 0.480 0.074 0.148 -0.037 14 704082 4 0.649 0.448 0.213 0.146 0.073 15 704091 4 0.391 0.329 0.186 0.151 0.099 16 704092 4 0.553 0.506 0.180 0.114 0.017 17 704101 4 0.090 0.280 0.053 -0.007 0.001 18 704102 4 0.412 0.396 0.133 0.181 0.050 19 704111 4 0.169 0.446 -0.138 0.012 0.022 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 4 0.429 0.472 0.189 -0.014 0.100 21 704121 4 0.468 0.535 0.056 0.015 0.177 22 704122 4 0.640 0.479 0.149 0.139 0.113 23 704131 4 0.439 0.465 0.069 0.194 0.035 24 704132 4 0.504 0.496 0.104 0.162 0.037 25 704141 4 0.414 0.408 0.125 0.139 0.094 26 704142 4 0.531 0.412 0.174 0.151 0.098 27 704151 4 0.100 0.224 0.075 0.043 0.113 28 704152 4 0.141 0.175 0.141 0.144 0.022 29 704171 4 0.509 0.416 0.250 0.091 0.043 30 704172 4 0.336 0.504 0.043 0.134 -0.047 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.359 0.393 0.127 0.096 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.169 0.109 0.087 0.078 0.065 MEDIAN 4 0.389 0.410 0.134 0.125 0.037 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.258 0.190 0.111 0.116 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.081 0.175 -0.138 -0.118 -0.113 LOWER HINGE 4 0.210 0.290 0.069 0.031 0.004 UPPER HINGE 4 0.468 0.480 0.180 0.148 0.094 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.649 0.586 0.284 0.231 0.177 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.050 0.474 4.425 0.056 -0.003 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.041 0.080 3.733 0.045 0.002 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.053 0.790 7.376 0.058 -0.006 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.053 0.599 3.715 0.057 -0.008 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.053 0.704 4.728 0.057 -0.001 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.048 1.050 6.948 0.051 -0.002 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.055 0.371 5.186 0.060 -0.003 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.059 0.518 4.279 0.063 0.000 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.045 -0.025 3.093 0.050 -0.004 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.044 0.298 4.205 0.048 -0.006 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.053 0.635 5.047 0.056 -0.003 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.052 0.547 4.551 0.054 -0.003 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.040 0.193 3.245 0.046 -0.011 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.043 0.099 3.752 0.047 -0.006 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.057 0.825 5.470 0.060 -0.009 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.059 0.546 3.520 0.064 0.001 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.050 0.121 3.298 0.055 0.002 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.058 0.467 3.464 0.064 -0.007 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.057 0.390 3.449 0.066 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.055 0.407 3.788 0.064 -0.010 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.049 0.119 3.923 0.053 0.005 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.048 0.835 5.168 0.051 -0.010 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.053 0.043 3.530 0.057 -0.004 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.060 0.384 5.034 0.065 -0.028 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.049 0.696 5.302 0.053 -0.007 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.057 0.300 4.332 0.060 -0.006 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.047 0.743 4.315 0.050 -0.009 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.039 0.341 3.443 0.042 -0.007 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.051 0.294 4.291 0.054 -0.008 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.050 0.991 5.103 0.053 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.051 0.461 4.390 0.055 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.006 0.286 1.025 0.006 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.051 0.437 4.285 0.056 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.007 0.402 1.518 0.010 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.039 -0.025 3.093 0.042 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.048 0.294 3.530 0.051 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.055 0.696 5.047 0.060 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.060 1.050 7.376 0.066 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.296 0.108 0.005 0.396 3.734 0.004 0.680 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.004 SERIES 704051 AND 704112 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.680 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.501 0.507 0.436 0.425 0.312 0.293 0.278 0.253 0.314 0.290 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.136 0.118 0.153 0.170 0.168 0.167 0.190 0.172 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.022 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.726 0.852 0.889 0.914 0.879 0.869 0.866 0.863 0.909 0.911 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.305 0.383 0.335 0.312 SDEV 0.157 0.146 0.160 0.167 SERR 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.924 0.948 0.938 0.932 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.037 0.520 5.207 0.042 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.128 0.054 -0.017 151 282 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.55 5.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.069 -0.091 -0.050 -0.068 0.044 -0.015 -0.029 -0.006 0.019 -0.023 PACF -0.069 -0.097 -0.064 -0.088 0.021 -0.030 -0.036 -0.019 0.013 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.030 -0.092 -0.121 -0.079 -0.091 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.009 0.005 -0.004 0.014 -0.038 -0.039 -0.019 0.016 -0.028 PACF 0.002 0.009 0.005 -0.004 0.014 -0.038 -0.039 -0.018 0.017 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 0.002 0.010 0.006 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.039 0.821 6.431 0.036 0.290 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.289 0.200 0.211 0.175 0.101 0.034 0.010 0.006 0.015 -0.029 PACF 0.289 0.127 0.137 0.076 -0.003 -0.050 -0.037 -0.012 0.019 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.096 0.104 0.107 0.111 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.131 0.217 0.102 0.132 0.076 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES