RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 704052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1822 1826 / 1833 1837 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 704062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 5 GAPS / 1738 1742 / 1806 1810 / 1879 1884 / 1918 1922 / / 1930 1935 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 704081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 33 IN 4 GAPS / 1752 1756 / 1769 1785 / 1870 1875 / 1903 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 2 GAPS / 1920 1925 / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 704121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1930 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 704122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1964 1969 / 1972 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 704131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1753 1757 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 704132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1793 1798 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 704141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 704171 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1881 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.171 0.098 2.241 10.397 0.282 0.609 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.131 0.039 1.362 5.151 0.205 0.587 3 704031 1836 1983 148 0.155 0.081 1.946 6.774 0.248 0.758 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.127 0.069 1.555 4.650 0.199 0.860 5 704041 1866 1983 118 0.174 0.054 1.070 4.396 0.229 0.464 6 704042 1873 1983 111 0.238 0.085 0.908 3.173 0.245 0.614 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.108 0.053 0.860 3.311 0.180 0.874 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.141 0.080 2.126 6.807 0.210 0.818 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.080 0.036 4.186 30.210 0.205 0.650 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.080 0.032 2.014 8.448 0.191 0.730 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.109 0.042 2.092 9.458 0.227 0.413 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.097 0.035 2.231 10.497 0.233 0.406 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.076 0.024 2.098 12.659 0.194 0.499 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.074 0.030 1.220 6.501 0.217 0.678 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.079 0.037 2.143 10.763 0.215 0.709 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.099 0.102 4.171 22.573 0.230 0.876 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.118 0.042 2.087 9.147 0.222 0.420 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.115 0.033 1.241 5.814 0.220 0.346 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.156 0.082 1.418 4.136 0.195 0.843 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.226 0.104 2.228 9.462 0.178 0.811 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.100 0.038 1.547 5.693 0.206 0.711 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.092 0.027 1.824 10.447 0.200 0.306 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.102 0.057 3.609 28.795 0.222 0.548 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.105 0.065 3.481 23.380 0.230 0.670 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.093 0.027 1.038 3.995 0.198 0.539 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.109 0.046 1.628 6.713 0.191 0.761 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.178 0.062 2.916 20.212 0.232 0.334 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.166 0.050 0.556 3.157 0.206 0.576 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.078 0.026 0.620 3.149 0.215 0.628 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.143 0.116 2.802 10.879 0.287 0.720 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 0.124 0.056 1.974 10.025 0.217 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 94 0.043 0.027 0.960 7.508 0.026 0.170 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 293 0.109 0.048 1.980 7.628 0.215 0.639 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 169 0.062 0.045 0.990 6.114 0.031 0.259 MINIMUM VALUE 98 0.074 0.024 0.556 3.149 0.178 0.306 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.093 0.035 1.241 4.650 0.199 0.499 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 0.155 0.080 2.231 10.763 0.230 0.758 MAXIMUM VALUE 427 0.238 0.116 4.186 30.210 0.287 0.876 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.130 0.235 0.011 -0.053 2.725 -0.478 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.478 SERIES 704031 AND 704131 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 704031 AND 704032 143 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.467 0.560 0.270 0.343 0.214 0.266 0.149 0.091 0.144 0.205 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.211 0.197 0.253 0.187 0.253 0.224 0.253 0.234 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.037 0.023 0.017 0.023 0.020 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.698 0.877 0.793 0.883 0.813 0.853 0.746 0.650 0.786 0.867 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.151 0.220 0.179 0.153 SDEV 0.214 0.251 0.242 0.227 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.831 0.892 0.868 0.844 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.115 0.056 4.986 38.265 0.163 0.631 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.074 0.031 0.034 234 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.68 1.60 1.00 1.20 2.81 33.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.629 0.577 0.436 0.371 0.341 0.322 0.370 0.357 0.367 0.353 PACF 0.629 0.300 -0.014 0.016 0.086 0.070 0.157 0.051 0.047 0.041 95% C.L. 0.096 0.129 0.151 0.162 0.170 0.176 0.181 0.188 0.194 0.201 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.581 0.390 0.354 0.096 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078602 0.23549648 2 704012 1 0.11381628 0.00465667 0.00000000 0.05132328 3 704031 1 0.26836449 0.02850067 0.00000000 0.09307273 4 704032 1 0.24369711 0.03604453 0.00000000 0.08061980 5 704041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070554 0.21596262 6 704042 1 0.22107883 0.03704509 0.00000000 0.18611026 7 704051 1 0.17372744 0.01132110 0.00000000 0.06089655 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029599 0.09371226 9 704061 1 0.13915294 0.03266574 0.00000000 0.06791312 10 704062 1 0.11889634 0.02443039 0.00000000 0.06590123 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012345 0.09016134 12 704072 1 0.17044252 0.11707234 0.00000000 0.09292118 13 704081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002065 0.07493337 14 704082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009467 0.05724434 15 704091 1 0.15337269 0.07745567 0.00000000 0.07093928 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021531 0.05988291 17 704101 1 0.10656878 0.06232600 0.00000000 0.10982663 18 704102 1 0.06185398 0.02045429 0.00000000 0.10106990 19 704111 1 0.30422220 0.04905279 0.00000000 0.09669909 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 1 0.22556904 0.00633009 0.00000000 0.08590581 21 704121 1 0.05320973 0.01090535 0.00000000 0.08469853 22 704122 1 0.05342602 0.04671486 0.00000000 0.08937719 23 704131 1 0.14318140 0.02675629 0.00000000 0.08876386 24 704132 1 0.18650945 0.01365611 0.00000000 0.07292639 25 704141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008659 0.10762624 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030407 0.15836371 27 704151 1 0.01415321 0.00413282 0.00000000 0.16778721 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038986 0.20040382 29 704171 1 0.05564119 0.01677144 0.00000000 0.06755139 30 704172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068803 0.21383283 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.996 0.511 2.263 10.040 0.281 0.534 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.252 1.050 4.400 0.204 0.462 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.243 0.695 4.333 0.247 0.082 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.001 0.273 0.352 3.065 0.197 0.561 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.277 1.454 6.689 0.228 0.345 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.278 1.095 4.428 0.242 0.341 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.001 0.292 0.329 3.393 0.180 0.669 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.005 0.496 1.810 6.163 0.210 0.739 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.254 1.342 5.852 0.205 0.304 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.226 0.517 3.666 0.187 0.398 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.002 0.362 1.915 9.093 0.225 0.398 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.313 2.063 11.542 0.232 0.220 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.306 1.899 11.625 0.190 0.499 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.003 0.405 1.466 6.819 0.216 0.654 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.421 2.111 13.624 0.209 0.695 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.989 4.507 26.153 0.224 0.862 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.333 2.699 14.539 0.221 0.314 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.259 1.429 6.662 0.220 0.228 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.234 0.916 4.237 0.195 0.313 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.377 1.489 7.249 0.178 0.747 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.332 1.198 4.671 0.203 0.631 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.264 1.430 8.217 0.200 0.257 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.999 0.462 2.631 17.048 0.221 0.566 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.379 1.945 10.258 0.228 0.471 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.270 0.867 3.639 0.199 0.499 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.297 1.584 8.684 0.190 0.576 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.349 2.784 18.824 0.231 0.333 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.274 0.570 2.859 0.205 0.485 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.282 0.506 3.721 0.214 0.464 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.997 0.636 2.377 9.358 0.286 0.656 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.355 1.576 8.362 0.216 0.477 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.002 0.153 0.896 5.393 0.025 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.301 1.460 6.754 0.212 0.478 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.001 0.109 1.148 5.925 0.029 0.298 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.996 0.226 0.329 2.859 0.178 0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.270 0.916 4.333 0.199 0.333 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.379 2.063 10.258 0.228 0.631 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.005 0.989 4.507 26.153 0.286 0.862 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.983 0.433 2.235 10.363 0.282 0.429 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.998 0.239 0.928 3.820 0.204 0.395 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.240 0.662 4.173 0.247 0.056 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.996 0.234 0.400 2.745 0.197 0.431 5 704041 1866 1983 118 0.999 0.268 1.272 5.893 0.228 0.313 6 704042 1873 1983 111 0.998 0.269 1.182 4.906 0.242 0.306 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.993 0.227 0.227 3.811 0.181 0.456 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.993 0.409 1.298 4.493 0.210 0.713 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.254 1.356 5.945 0.205 0.300 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.999 0.218 0.581 3.929 0.188 0.349 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.997 0.311 2.957 21.701 0.226 0.180 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.998 0.300 2.026 11.155 0.232 0.173 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.994 0.249 1.498 7.847 0.191 0.312 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.994 0.335 2.137 13.627 0.217 0.515 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.985 0.329 1.934 12.315 0.209 0.552 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.962 0.747 4.141 23.790 0.224 0.838 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.996 0.292 2.274 12.356 0.221 0.219 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.256 1.532 7.115 0.220 0.206 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.998 0.206 0.714 4.047 0.195 0.180 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.981 0.282 1.625 8.233 0.178 0.604 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.995 0.290 1.024 4.572 0.203 0.552 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.261 1.507 8.375 0.200 0.240 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.994 0.343 4.247 37.220 0.221 0.237 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.995 0.361 2.117 10.945 0.228 0.427 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.999 0.263 0.802 3.436 0.199 0.475 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.998 0.288 1.773 9.834 0.191 0.550 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.996 0.336 3.654 28.166 0.231 0.262 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.997 0.249 0.639 3.150 0.205 0.385 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.996 0.252 0.350 3.533 0.215 0.348 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.984 0.539 1.930 7.082 0.286 0.595 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 0.994 0.309 1.634 9.619 0.216 0.387 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.008 0.109 1.046 8.166 0.025 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 0.996 0.276 1.503 7.098 0.212 0.367 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.004 0.086 1.314 7.107 0.029 0.275 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.962 0.206 0.227 2.745 0.178 0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.994 0.249 0.802 4.047 0.199 0.240 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 0.998 0.335 2.117 11.155 0.228 0.515 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.747 4.247 37.220 0.286 0.838 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.144 0.126 0.006 0.208 3.280 -0.178 0.614 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 704042 AND 704051 111 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.614 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.436 0.488 0.293 0.248 0.181 0.212 0.169 0.113 0.143 0.200 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.208 0.193 0.210 0.171 0.210 0.187 0.223 0.210 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.045 0.036 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.017 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.671 0.842 0.811 0.826 0.779 0.811 0.774 0.704 0.784 0.863 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.156 0.209 0.200 0.163 SDEV 0.199 0.195 0.209 0.214 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.836 0.885 0.882 0.854 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.973 0.222 2.143 14.212 0.176 0.318 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.544 0.352 -0.126 182 251 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.05 1.00 1.10 2.14 24.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.318 0.287 0.224 0.175 0.138 0.170 0.146 0.090 0.141 0.079 PACF 0.318 0.207 0.100 0.046 0.023 0.084 0.044 -0.023 0.067 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.096 0.105 0.112 0.116 0.119 0.120 0.122 0.124 0.125 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.164 0.229 0.189 0.119 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.399 0.424 0.301 0.292 0.316 0.315 0.174 0.146 0.115 0.091 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.399 2 0.273 0.315 3 0.249 0.294 0.078 4 0.243 0.270 0.058 0.081 5 0.231 0.261 0.019 0.046 0.144 6 0.214 0.256 0.017 0.017 0.118 0.114 7 0.227 0.269 0.018 0.018 0.146 0.137 -0.110 8 0.220 0.278 0.028 0.020 0.147 0.155 -0.095 -0.066 9 0.219 0.278 0.029 0.020 0.147 0.155 -0.094 -0.065 -0.005 10 0.219 0.276 0.026 0.025 0.152 0.156 -0.093 -0.057 0.002 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3502.19 3429.07 3385.87 3385.23 3384.37 3377.28 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3373.64 3370.33 3370.42 3372.42 3374.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 7 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.227 0.269 0.018 0.018 0.146 0.137 -0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 28.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 140.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 7) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.227 0.321 0.152 0.143 0.230 0.270 0.096 0.143 0.074 0.0985 0.102 0.079 0.053 0.057 0.039 0.047 0.038 0.030 0.026 0.0233 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.0057 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0014 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 7 0.265 0.278 0.200 0.096 0.065 0.091 0.012 -0.117 2 704012 7 0.329 0.226 0.308 0.095 -0.028 0.125 -0.004 -0.073 3 704031 7 0.032 0.061 0.104 -0.106 -0.008 -0.062 -0.004 0.013 4 704032 7 0.235 0.371 0.080 0.002 0.130 0.127 -0.128 -0.018 5 704041 7 0.119 0.282 0.132 -0.019 -0.043 -0.030 0.059 0.014 6 704042 7 0.283 0.317 0.158 -0.116 -0.234 0.376 0.146 -0.198 7 704051 7 0.249 0.363 0.109 0.061 0.029 -0.028 0.119 0.010 8 704052 7 0.585 0.449 0.179 0.141 -0.004 0.137 -0.003 -0.045 9 704061 7 0.106 0.291 0.067 -0.059 0.026 -0.033 -0.043 0.099 10 704062 7 0.208 0.266 0.135 0.048 -0.017 0.027 0.246 -0.066 11 704071 7 0.125 0.102 0.249 0.053 -0.006 0.097 0.043 -0.005 12 704072 7 0.209 0.066 0.398 0.070 -0.076 0.021 0.111 0.016 13 704081 7 0.160 0.244 0.202 0.080 -0.074 0.086 -0.079 -0.036 14 704082 7 0.361 0.307 0.263 0.155 0.000 -0.043 0.040 0.003 15 704091 7 0.396 0.343 0.324 -0.002 0.015 0.033 0.018 0.026 16 704092 7 0.712 0.813 0.004 0.011 0.108 -0.025 -0.112 0.034 17 704101 7 0.191 0.158 0.278 -0.066 -0.007 0.015 0.234 -0.001 18 704102 7 0.150 0.124 0.287 0.135 -0.058 -0.054 0.040 -0.100 19 704111 7 0.187 0.195 0.084 -0.119 -0.269 0.210 -0.004 -0.009 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 7 0.472 0.364 0.230 0.096 0.133 -0.135 -0.042 0.176 21 704121 7 0.362 0.410 0.107 0.153 0.062 0.043 -0.059 -0.034 22 704122 7 0.139 0.144 0.126 0.108 0.061 0.063 -0.003 0.123 23 704131 7 0.098 0.179 0.113 0.062 0.103 -0.010 0.018 0.044 24 704132 7 0.266 0.292 0.197 0.047 0.125 -0.028 -0.011 0.068 25 704141 7 0.255 0.400 0.053 0.094 0.071 0.009 0.023 -0.030 26 704142 7 0.369 0.382 0.174 0.072 0.051 0.138 -0.047 -0.056 27 704151 7 0.097 0.275 0.006 -0.054 0.095 -0.055 0.137 -0.047 28 704152 7 0.229 0.294 0.154 0.003 0.060 0.194 0.031 -0.179 29 704171 7 0.264 0.132 0.166 0.100 0.106 0.166 0.068 0.017 30 704172 7 0.394 0.647 -0.056 -0.135 0.139 0.138 -0.096 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 7 0.262 0.292 0.161 0.033 0.019 0.053 0.024 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.150 0.160 0.103 0.085 0.097 0.105 0.090 0.078 MEDIAN 7 0.242 0.286 0.156 0.057 0.028 0.030 0.015 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.210 0.186 0.125 0.115 0.112 0.155 0.101 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 7 0.032 0.061 -0.056 -0.135 -0.269 -0.135 -0.128 -0.198 LOWER HINGE 7 0.150 0.179 0.104 -0.019 -0.017 -0.028 -0.042 -0.047 UPPER HINGE 7 0.361 0.364 0.230 0.096 0.095 0.127 0.059 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 7 0.712 0.813 0.398 0.155 0.139 0.376 0.246 0.176 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.371 2.159 11.210 0.321 -0.006 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.203 0.399 3.416 0.225 -0.020 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.236 0.642 3.841 0.254 -0.001 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.205 0.561 3.216 0.228 0.000 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.251 1.082 4.904 0.255 0.000 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.228 1.085 4.995 0.244 -0.013 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.196 0.582 4.322 0.214 0.001 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.263 1.213 7.377 0.256 -0.004 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.240 1.249 6.112 0.241 0.001 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.194 0.855 4.732 0.208 -0.003 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.291 3.236 25.845 0.235 0.000 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.268 1.622 8.438 0.251 -0.002 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.228 1.648 9.172 0.219 -0.001 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.268 2.805 24.410 0.248 -0.003 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.256 1.686 11.249 0.246 -0.004 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.006 0.374 3.207 22.646 0.331 0.100 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.263 1.936 10.876 0.241 0.000 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.236 1.402 7.287 0.229 -0.001 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.190 0.661 3.780 0.203 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.205 1.592 8.338 0.204 -0.016 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.233 0.607 4.379 0.246 0.003 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.243 1.846 10.429 0.220 0.002 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.326 5.012 48.931 0.243 -0.001 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.307 2.492 14.570 0.268 -0.010 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.227 0.775 3.462 0.243 -0.001 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.229 1.423 8.951 0.234 -0.004 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.319 3.842 30.742 0.265 0.000 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.219 0.639 3.552 0.233 -0.003 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.216 0.376 4.075 0.230 0.000 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.419 1.662 7.325 0.385 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.257 1.610 10.753 0.247 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.001 0.057 1.107 10.245 0.038 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.238 1.413 7.351 0.242 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.049 1.275 6.887 0.026 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.190 0.376 3.216 0.203 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.219 0.661 4.322 0.228 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.268 1.936 11.210 0.254 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.006 0.419 5.012 48.931 0.385 0.100 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.143 0.092 0.004 0.642 4.435 -0.113 0.582 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.113 SERIES 704031 AND 704072 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.582 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.448 0.460 0.287 0.255 0.191 0.162 0.135 0.101 0.115 0.169 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.220 0.191 0.156 0.146 0.192 0.200 0.155 0.154 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.036 0.014 0.013 0.018 0.018 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.682 0.827 0.807 0.831 0.791 0.755 0.724 0.677 0.739 0.837 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.164 0.193 0.205 0.159 SDEV 0.153 0.159 0.135 0.149 SERR 0.009 0.008 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.844 0.875 0.886 0.850 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.984 0.195 2.746 23.935 0.193 -0.076 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.618 0.434 -0.245 181 252 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.10 1.00 1.16 2.27 15.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.85 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.076 -0.011 0.018 -0.038 -0.044 0.044 -0.007 -0.016 0.101 0.017 PACF -0.076 -0.017 0.016 -0.035 -0.049 0.036 0.000 -0.016 0.095 0.033 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 -0.078 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.001 -0.003 0.003 0.004 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 0.100 0.024 PACF 0.002 0.001 -0.003 0.003 0.004 0.002 -0.004 -0.007 0.100 0.024 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.000 0.002 0.001 -0.003 0.003 0.004 0.002 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.986 0.231 1.770 11.752 0.170 0.414 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.413 0.428 0.310 0.299 0.323 0.307 0.182 0.188 0.191 0.139 PACF 0.413 0.311 0.081 0.083 0.143 0.094 -0.100 -0.006 0.068 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.096 0.111 0.126 0.132 0.139 0.145 0.151 0.153 0.155 0.157 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.302 0.234 0.266 0.038 0.035 0.143 0.113 -0.116 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES