RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park DENSITY_MINIMUM PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 704012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1975 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 704031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1934 1938 / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 704032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 704042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 704051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 704062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 2 GAPS / 1769 1785 / 1895 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 704101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1782 1786 / 1834 1840 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 704102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1807 1811 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 704112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1865 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 704131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1703 1709 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 704141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1664 1668 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 704152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1852 1856 / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 704172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.290 0.026 0.291 2.972 0.058 0.674 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.271 0.020 0.754 3.499 0.050 0.580 3 704031 1836 1983 148 0.229 0.020 0.777 3.520 0.055 0.635 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.234 0.027 -0.281 3.577 0.068 0.688 5 704041 1866 1983 118 0.258 0.018 0.670 5.605 0.061 0.326 6 704042 1873 1983 111 0.247 0.020 0.903 4.382 0.054 0.599 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.327 0.036 1.531 5.813 0.056 0.757 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.337 0.045 0.813 3.795 0.060 0.815 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.266 0.021 0.219 2.733 0.054 0.634 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.273 0.020 0.360 2.956 0.058 0.464 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.312 0.031 0.966 4.308 0.055 0.696 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.295 0.022 0.968 4.668 0.055 0.471 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.301 0.023 0.795 3.963 0.048 0.676 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.314 0.042 0.891 4.160 0.045 0.901 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.317 0.050 0.801 3.146 0.058 0.851 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.335 0.037 0.777 3.784 0.060 0.717 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.351 0.033 1.424 6.050 0.060 0.625 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.348 0.040 1.006 4.844 0.066 0.723 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.291 0.028 0.561 3.258 0.068 0.580 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.307 0.046 0.714 2.767 0.071 0.824 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.373 0.037 0.957 4.183 0.051 0.780 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.372 0.045 1.244 4.902 0.051 0.833 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.369 0.042 0.144 2.970 0.056 0.795 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.368 0.040 1.022 5.007 0.059 0.718 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.353 0.030 0.304 3.496 0.054 0.602 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.357 0.038 0.814 4.905 0.061 0.718 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.313 0.039 2.081 7.771 0.047 0.848 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.309 0.031 0.025 2.184 0.050 0.777 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.330 0.033 1.304 5.263 0.054 0.749 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.301 0.024 0.546 3.063 0.051 0.672 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 0.312 0.032 0.779 4.118 0.056 0.691 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.041 0.009 0.476 1.209 0.006 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 301 0.313 0.032 0.798 3.879 0.055 0.707 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 170 0.058 0.017 0.422 1.756 0.009 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.229 0.018 -0.281 2.184 0.045 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 163 0.290 0.023 0.546 3.146 0.051 0.625 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 0.348 0.040 0.968 4.902 0.060 0.780 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 0.373 0.050 2.081 7.771 0.071 0.901 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.168 0.244 0.012 -0.130 2.674 -0.558 0.733 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.558 SERIES 704051 AND 704112 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.733 SERIES 704111 AND 704131 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.148 0.129 0.324 0.265 0.276 0.174 0.184 0.160 0.271 0.363 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.229 0.324 0.283 0.299 0.262 0.297 0.283 0.285 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.050 0.061 0.026 0.027 0.024 0.027 0.022 0.019 EPS 0.314 0.454 0.832 0.839 0.859 0.771 0.791 0.781 0.890 0.935 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.240 0.255 0.233 0.241 SDEV 0.242 0.224 0.252 0.264 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.897 0.909 0.901 0.905 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.328 0.027 3.206 26.363 0.037 0.749 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.275 -0.179 0.101 74 359 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.28 1.00 1.05 1.32 7.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.747 0.622 0.577 0.536 0.496 0.472 0.433 0.402 0.403 0.388 PACF 0.747 0.145 0.164 0.081 0.049 0.060 -0.001 0.019 0.073 0.021 95% C.L. 0.096 0.140 0.163 0.181 0.195 0.207 0.216 0.224 0.231 0.237 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.687 0.451 0.239 0.202 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 1 0.08365687 0.05306354 0.00000000 0.28009316 2 704012 1 0.04547260 0.03975777 0.00000000 0.26468623 3 704031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005914 0.22568814 4 704032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039622 0.20611566 5 704041 1 0.03850593 0.09518526 0.00000000 0.25444424 6 704042 1 0.04139105 0.03711567 0.00000000 0.23721570 7 704051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004942 0.31841698 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028868 0.29178280 9 704061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001077 0.26439556 10 704062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001315 0.27544543 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004631 0.30465910 12 704072 1 0.04603681 0.01512898 0.00000000 0.28558779 13 704081 1 0.05982763 0.05462254 0.00000000 0.29451388 14 704082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024852 0.35770231 15 704091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029218 0.37535837 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010960 0.35306302 17 704101 1 0.13913661 0.06118400 0.00000000 0.34066671 18 704102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009264 0.33728206 19 704111 1 0.04095237 0.07504688 0.00000000 0.28693908 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041285 0.27232730 21 704121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008127 0.38598812 22 704122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001231 0.37025803 23 704131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005827 0.35814047 24 704132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007668 0.35109636 25 704141 1 0.02167985 0.02888399 0.00000000 0.35061720 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000110 0.35711333 27 704151 1 0.19079904 0.06802294 0.00000000 0.29893321 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023812 0.28752637 29 704171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006564 0.31949714 30 704172 1 0.07186626 0.00562489 0.00000000 0.25872019 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.070 -0.117 2.996 0.058 0.474 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.061 0.419 2.842 0.050 0.400 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.089 0.861 3.755 0.054 0.656 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.094 0.574 4.681 0.067 0.488 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.066 0.162 4.418 0.061 0.245 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.066 0.310 3.219 0.054 0.403 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.110 1.360 5.531 0.055 0.755 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.103 0.306 3.484 0.060 0.705 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.079 0.237 2.700 0.054 0.631 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.071 0.357 2.983 0.057 0.460 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.099 0.912 4.218 0.055 0.694 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.065 0.869 4.683 0.055 0.289 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.064 0.275 3.059 0.048 0.531 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.102 1.028 5.364 0.045 0.831 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.999 0.126 0.698 3.078 0.058 0.782 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.103 0.783 4.084 0.059 0.680 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.066 0.318 3.140 0.059 0.321 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.111 0.930 4.524 0.066 0.704 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.090 0.602 3.334 0.067 0.545 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.133 0.443 2.492 0.069 0.777 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.096 0.645 3.759 0.051 0.760 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.120 1.238 4.899 0.051 0.831 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.114 0.193 2.902 0.056 0.794 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.105 1.113 6.845 0.059 0.695 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.084 0.451 3.719 0.054 0.592 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.106 0.817 4.911 0.060 0.716 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.065 1.086 5.091 0.046 0.559 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.096 0.403 2.913 0.049 0.760 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.099 1.466 5.623 0.054 0.739 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.062 0.407 3.496 0.050 0.459 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.091 0.638 3.958 0.056 0.609 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.021 0.389 1.069 0.006 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.095 0.588 3.737 0.055 0.668 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.039 0.593 1.624 0.008 0.281 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.999 0.061 -0.117 2.492 0.045 0.245 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.066 0.318 3.059 0.051 0.474 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.105 0.912 4.683 0.059 0.755 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.133 1.466 6.845 0.069 0.831 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.064 -0.050 3.103 0.058 0.390 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.057 0.444 3.052 0.050 0.333 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.082 0.857 3.920 0.054 0.604 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.999 0.074 0.428 5.132 0.067 0.124 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.064 0.136 4.138 0.061 0.205 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.064 0.363 3.284 0.054 0.367 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.084 1.230 5.562 0.056 0.601 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.096 0.519 4.403 0.060 0.665 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.068 0.093 2.686 0.054 0.500 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.064 0.229 2.915 0.058 0.334 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.085 0.722 4.221 0.055 0.587 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.065 0.897 4.793 0.055 0.284 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.060 0.363 3.334 0.048 0.474 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.999 0.091 0.658 4.851 0.045 0.782 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.999 0.084 0.525 3.772 0.058 0.535 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.082 0.887 4.795 0.059 0.514 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.064 0.332 3.039 0.059 0.284 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.081 1.023 5.364 0.066 0.444 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.074 0.692 3.724 0.067 0.356 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.999 0.088 0.756 3.091 0.069 0.507 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.087 0.812 3.957 0.051 0.707 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.999 0.098 0.852 4.190 0.051 0.748 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.999 0.085 -0.168 3.591 0.056 0.641 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.099 1.159 7.007 0.059 0.660 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.076 0.554 3.992 0.054 0.501 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.092 0.678 5.062 0.061 0.626 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.053 0.496 3.748 0.047 0.358 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.051 0.151 3.265 0.049 0.208 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.999 0.088 1.211 4.861 0.054 0.676 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.058 0.248 3.539 0.050 0.399 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.076 0.570 4.080 0.056 0.480 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.014 0.364 0.965 0.006 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.078 0.540 3.939 0.055 0.501 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.001 0.022 0.520 1.511 0.008 0.270 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.999 0.051 -0.168 2.686 0.045 0.124 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.999 0.064 0.332 3.284 0.051 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.087 0.852 4.795 0.059 0.626 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.099 1.230 7.007 0.069 0.782 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.205 0.138 0.007 -0.137 3.167 -0.302 0.568 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.302 SERIES 704031 AND 704052 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.568 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.125 0.019 0.350 0.235 0.267 0.195 0.204 0.182 0.314 0.323 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.261 0.298 0.263 0.269 0.246 0.235 0.251 0.222 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.057 0.056 0.024 0.025 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.275 0.099 0.848 0.816 0.853 0.795 0.811 0.806 0.909 0.923 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.256 0.284 0.256 0.257 SDEV 0.210 0.190 0.225 0.225 SERR 0.012 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.905 0.921 0.912 0.912 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.057 1.600 11.632 0.044 0.441 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.036 0.018 0.046 165 268 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.49 1.00 1.10 1.58 8.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.334 0.318 0.300 0.222 0.167 0.121 0.109 0.093 0.062 PACF 0.440 0.174 0.153 0.112 0.007 -0.015 -0.031 0.003 0.008 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.096 0.113 0.122 0.129 0.136 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.143 0.143 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.290 0.284 0.140 0.147 0.136 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.272 0.226 0.282 0.283 0.220 0.165 0.162 0.121 0.156 0.074 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.272 2 0.227 0.164 3 0.193 0.117 0.206 4 0.159 0.097 0.173 0.170 5 0.146 0.084 0.166 0.158 0.075 6 0.145 0.083 0.165 0.157 0.074 0.008 7 0.145 0.082 0.163 0.155 0.073 0.006 0.012 8 0.145 0.082 0.165 0.159 0.077 0.008 0.015 -0.025 9 0.147 0.081 0.164 0.155 0.069 0.000 0.011 -0.032 0.050 10 0.149 0.080 0.165 0.155 0.072 0.007 0.018 -0.029 0.057 -0.043 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2398.13 2366.90 2357.11 2340.30 2329.66 2329.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2331.18 2333.13 2334.86 2335.77 2336.95 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.146 0.084 0.166 0.158 0.075 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.66 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.146 0.105 0.194 0.219 0.164 0.102 0.103 0.100 0.083 0.0660 0.057 0.051 0.044 0.037 0.032 0.027 0.023 0.020 0.017 0.0148 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0032 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 5 0.244 0.264 0.120 0.234 0.035 -0.026 2 704012 5 0.237 0.250 0.231 -0.062 0.204 -0.015 3 704031 5 0.397 0.521 0.094 0.138 -0.105 0.031 4 704032 5 0.129 0.094 0.205 -0.052 0.190 0.067 5 704041 5 0.072 0.245 -0.140 0.084 -0.119 0.010 6 704042 5 0.176 0.395 0.032 -0.156 0.171 -0.121 7 704051 5 0.422 0.452 0.110 0.124 -0.061 0.147 8 704052 5 0.514 0.409 0.183 0.123 0.123 -0.016 9 704061 5 0.330 0.312 0.210 0.130 0.022 0.047 10 704062 5 0.253 0.138 0.173 0.265 0.084 0.037 11 704071 5 0.428 0.350 0.281 0.112 -0.008 0.033 12 704072 5 0.122 0.217 0.152 0.073 0.054 -0.007 13 704081 5 0.268 0.373 0.122 0.108 0.059 -0.035 14 704082 5 0.682 0.457 0.164 0.227 0.039 0.009 15 704091 5 0.394 0.280 0.220 0.088 0.112 0.091 16 704092 5 0.322 0.351 0.172 0.100 0.040 0.047 17 704101 5 0.095 0.269 0.010 0.059 0.034 0.052 18 704102 5 0.290 0.266 0.114 0.171 0.117 0.055 19 704111 5 0.142 0.371 -0.021 -0.064 0.067 0.034 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 5 0.324 0.339 0.209 0.078 0.042 0.037 21 704121 5 0.556 0.482 0.118 0.070 0.182 -0.008 22 704122 5 0.637 0.396 0.161 0.156 0.140 0.041 23 704131 5 0.487 0.399 0.121 0.141 0.121 0.041 24 704132 5 0.522 0.420 0.144 0.164 0.053 0.055 25 704141 5 0.353 0.273 0.145 0.129 0.115 0.114 26 704142 5 0.479 0.353 0.199 0.164 0.041 0.064 27 704151 5 0.212 0.255 0.038 0.099 0.172 0.084 28 704152 5 0.140 0.120 0.079 0.205 0.031 0.154 29 704171 5 0.533 0.398 0.185 0.050 0.083 0.137 30 704172 5 0.184 0.335 0.093 0.083 0.032 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.331 0.326 0.131 0.101 0.069 0.039 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.168 0.104 0.085 0.092 0.080 0.058 MEDIAN 5 0.323 0.344 0.144 0.110 0.057 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.295 0.134 0.091 0.083 0.086 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.072 0.094 -0.140 -0.156 -0.119 -0.121 LOWER HINGE 5 0.184 0.264 0.094 0.073 0.034 0.001 UPPER HINGE 5 0.479 0.398 0.185 0.156 0.121 0.064 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.682 0.521 0.281 0.265 0.204 0.154 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.056 -0.062 2.734 0.065 -0.005 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.051 0.417 2.801 0.057 -0.005 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.064 0.157 4.295 0.073 -0.010 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.069 0.220 4.918 0.070 0.006 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.061 0.029 3.474 0.067 0.005 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.058 0.301 3.614 0.063 -0.006 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.064 0.558 4.750 0.070 0.011 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.067 0.459 4.073 0.073 0.001 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.055 0.089 3.193 0.064 -0.003 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.055 0.204 3.416 0.062 -0.004 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.064 0.955 6.344 0.067 -0.004 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.061 1.144 6.205 0.061 -0.003 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.051 0.384 3.227 0.059 -0.007 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.051 0.287 3.898 0.057 -0.001 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.065 1.032 5.080 0.068 -0.002 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.067 0.715 5.046 0.071 -0.002 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.061 0.439 3.187 0.067 0.004 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.068 0.526 3.583 0.075 -0.001 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.069 0.264 2.796 0.080 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.073 0.533 3.405 0.082 -0.006 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.058 0.081 3.336 0.063 0.000 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.059 0.855 5.411 0.062 -0.005 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.061 -0.016 3.731 0.068 -0.006 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.067 0.383 5.055 0.072 -0.019 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.061 0.851 5.471 0.063 0.001 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.067 0.112 3.704 0.072 0.001 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.048 0.330 3.381 0.052 0.007 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.047 0.121 3.242 0.051 -0.009 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.060 0.197 4.461 0.066 -0.003 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.052 0.123 3.173 0.060 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.060 0.390 4.034 0.066 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.007 0.322 1.009 0.007 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.061 0.315 3.659 0.066 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.011 0.410 1.675 0.009 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.047 -0.062 2.734 0.051 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.055 0.123 3.242 0.062 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.067 0.533 4.918 0.071 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.073 1.144 6.344 0.082 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.284 0.099 0.005 0.140 3.546 -0.022 0.641 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 704042 AND 704082 111 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.641 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.400 0.456 0.306 0.260 0.251 0.281 0.264 0.203 0.298 0.291 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.136 0.148 0.145 0.156 0.157 0.160 0.151 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.028 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.637 0.825 0.821 0.835 0.843 0.862 0.858 0.826 0.902 0.912 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.319 0.344 0.337 0.327 SDEV 0.142 0.144 0.153 0.157 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.928 0.939 0.938 0.936 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.040 0.643 4.909 0.044 -0.082 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.128 0.061 -0.017 141 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.51 1.00 1.08 1.60 40.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.082 -0.093 0.004 0.032 0.005 -0.017 -0.039 0.008 0.033 -0.003 PACF -0.082 -0.100 -0.013 0.022 0.009 -0.011 -0.041 -0.003 0.026 0.004 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.019 -0.092 -0.108 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.008 0.002 -0.008 -0.012 -0.013 -0.035 0.005 0.029 -0.001 PACF 0.000 0.008 0.002 -0.008 -0.012 -0.012 -0.035 0.005 0.029 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.001 -0.001 0.008 0.003 -0.008 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.998 0.043 0.769 5.551 0.039 0.256 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.205 0.253 0.248 0.184 0.120 0.087 0.103 0.097 0.052 PACF 0.255 0.149 0.186 0.147 0.058 -0.013 -0.034 0.009 0.024 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.096 0.102 0.106 0.111 0.116 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.150 0.154 0.104 0.168 0.152 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES