RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1785 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 6.296 0.481 -0.427 2.800 0.075 0.213 2 704012 1822 1983 162 5.745 0.623 -0.408 3.015 0.097 0.333 3 704031 1836 1983 148 5.352 0.536 -0.012 2.807 0.101 0.170 4 704032 1841 1983 143 5.124 0.593 -0.312 3.164 0.094 0.468 5 704041 1866 1983 118 5.703 0.458 -0.240 3.131 0.077 0.213 6 704042 1873 1983 111 5.646 0.415 -0.253 2.580 0.074 0.165 7 704051 1672 1983 312 4.795 0.613 0.901 3.242 0.075 0.719 8 704052 1673 1983 311 5.622 0.984 0.577 2.360 0.074 0.860 9 704061 1634 1983 350 5.219 0.564 0.139 3.052 0.082 0.510 10 704062 1621 1983 363 5.223 0.494 0.107 2.989 0.079 0.464 11 704071 1674 1983 310 5.188 0.654 0.321 2.400 0.073 0.708 12 704072 1663 1983 321 5.266 0.597 0.148 3.243 0.098 0.338 13 704081 1808 1983 176 4.954 0.384 -0.254 2.911 0.068 0.340 14 704082 1635 1983 349 5.246 0.504 0.086 3.140 0.088 0.311 15 704091 1622 1983 362 5.371 0.612 -0.101 2.696 0.072 0.656 16 704092 1663 1983 321 5.838 0.892 0.550 2.941 0.070 0.812 17 704101 1770 1983 214 6.722 0.681 0.573 3.247 0.091 0.312 18 704102 1767 1983 217 6.822 0.828 0.631 3.230 0.093 0.485 19 704111 1877 1983 107 6.142 0.830 0.264 2.536 0.114 0.413 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 6.101 0.732 -0.065 4.036 0.106 0.350 21 704121 1672 1983 312 6.302 0.826 0.072 2.512 0.085 0.642 22 704122 1631 1983 353 6.229 0.651 0.350 3.760 0.090 0.357 23 704131 1577 1983 407 6.279 0.745 0.169 3.305 0.104 0.336 24 704132 1551 1983 433 6.486 0.769 0.052 3.096 0.105 0.360 25 704141 1637 1983 347 6.548 0.619 -0.301 3.235 0.088 0.329 26 704142 1663 1983 321 6.626 0.764 -0.147 2.870 0.083 0.596 27 704151 1796 1983 188 6.255 0.543 -0.432 3.449 0.076 0.375 28 704152 1807 1983 177 6.204 0.474 -0.801 4.754 0.075 0.163 29 704171 1680 1983 304 5.194 0.794 0.033 1.978 0.080 0.780 30 704172 1778 1983 206 5.532 0.596 -0.061 2.373 0.087 0.470 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 5.801 0.642 0.039 3.028 0.086 0.442 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.582 0.149 0.377 0.538 0.012 0.199 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 304 5.724 0.616 0.043 3.034 0.084 0.368 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 169 1.032 0.228 0.516 0.547 0.019 0.267 MINIMUM VALUE 104 4.795 0.384 -0.801 1.978 0.068 0.163 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 5.246 0.536 -0.253 2.696 0.075 0.329 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 6.279 0.764 0.264 3.242 0.094 0.596 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 6.822 0.984 0.901 4.754 0.114 0.860 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.282 0.195 0.009 -0.463 3.012 -0.328 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.328 SERIES 704102 AND 704111 107 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 704081 AND 704171 176 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.656 0.683 0.639 0.564 0.411 0.343 0.385 0.441 0.374 0.296 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.120 0.168 0.227 0.239 0.238 0.204 0.246 0.283 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.032 0.021 0.022 0.022 0.019 0.019 0.019 EPS 0.834 0.924 0.948 0.949 0.918 0.893 0.913 0.936 0.929 0.914 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.287 0.374 0.313 0.327 SDEV 0.306 0.244 0.220 0.236 SERR 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.918 0.946 0.932 0.936 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 5.901 0.562 0.753 5.215 0.075 0.441 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.367 -0.198 1.934 45 388 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.34 1.00 1.04 1.38 2.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.457 0.434 0.387 0.406 0.374 0.365 0.422 0.335 0.380 PACF 0.440 0.327 0.214 0.107 0.134 0.078 0.065 0.155 -0.002 0.076 95% C.L. 0.096 0.113 0.129 0.142 0.151 0.161 0.169 0.176 0.185 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.381 0.134 0.197 0.178 0.099 0.134 0.080 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170746 6.43583965 2 704012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00453554 6.11464691 3 704031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00479455 4.99503565 4 704032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00587236 4.70096636 5 704041 1 0.63480228 0.00613531 0.00000000 5.25258636 6 704042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022833 5.63324976 7 704051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00261416 4.38565874 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00701395 4.52746296 9 704061 1 1.38284171 0.04121104 0.00000000 5.12466383 10 704062 1 0.96769536 0.02760544 0.00000000 5.12746191 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00436168 4.50915098 12 704072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108085 5.09215069 13 704081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00331784 4.66017818 14 704082 1 0.43854862 0.02476270 0.00000000 5.19610739 15 704091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019856 5.28710127 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00366774 5.19662285 17 704101 1 2.34039021 0.11141270 0.00000000 6.62968302 18 704102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079869 6.90908480 19 704111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01492136 5.34160423 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194926 5.94028378 21 704121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00381042 5.70591211 22 704122 1 1.20670533 0.00951516 0.00000000 5.88363886 23 704131 1 2.11710715 0.00132394 0.00000000 4.64315701 24 704132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066488 6.34174967 25 704141 1 0.81496567 0.00656228 0.00000000 6.22771645 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027418 6.58230495 27 704151 1 1.29104483 0.01883984 0.00000000 5.90461779 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163817 6.05838346 29 704171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00756851 4.03978252 30 704172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00394580 5.94052649 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.076 -0.283 2.809 0.075 0.196 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.102 -0.284 3.332 0.096 0.237 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.092 -0.134 2.560 0.100 0.038 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.107 0.062 3.532 0.093 0.376 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.079 -0.069 3.139 0.076 0.173 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.073 -0.260 2.581 0.074 0.163 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.118 0.784 3.528 0.074 0.663 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.133 0.260 2.522 0.074 0.736 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.098 -0.190 2.823 0.082 0.423 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.087 -0.094 3.164 0.079 0.366 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.100 0.126 2.685 0.074 0.541 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.112 0.102 3.271 0.098 0.312 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.070 -0.243 2.800 0.067 0.197 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.094 0.004 3.070 0.087 0.292 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.115 0.013 2.633 0.071 0.672 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.144 0.547 2.941 0.070 0.784 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.091 0.305 2.863 0.090 0.168 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.121 0.642 3.322 0.093 0.485 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.111 0.223 2.868 0.114 0.153 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.119 -0.084 3.850 0.105 0.343 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.121 0.196 2.627 0.085 0.564 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.090 -0.332 3.967 0.090 0.179 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.112 0.326 4.169 0.104 0.267 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.118 0.043 3.055 0.105 0.348 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.090 -0.252 3.477 0.088 0.252 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.115 -0.108 2.864 0.083 0.595 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.070 -0.687 4.117 0.076 0.024 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.075 -0.869 4.862 0.075 0.141 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.086 0.060 3.043 0.080 0.271 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.099 -0.199 2.586 0.087 0.360 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.101 -0.013 3.169 0.085 0.344 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.019 0.349 0.567 0.012 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.099 -0.033 3.049 0.084 0.302 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.028 0.438 0.676 0.019 0.306 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.070 -0.869 2.522 0.067 0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.087 -0.243 2.800 0.075 0.179 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.115 0.196 3.477 0.093 0.485 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.144 0.784 4.862 0.114 0.784 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.072 -0.288 3.022 0.074 0.123 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.091 -0.435 3.735 0.096 0.040 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.085 -0.272 2.801 0.100 -0.113 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.097 -0.182 3.650 0.093 0.242 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.074 -0.142 3.248 0.076 0.062 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.072 -0.248 2.735 0.074 0.138 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.091 0.601 3.962 0.074 0.441 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.999 0.118 0.101 2.588 0.074 0.673 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.088 -0.239 3.221 0.082 0.276 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.086 -0.087 3.012 0.079 0.342 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.999 0.091 0.054 2.703 0.074 0.446 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.105 0.080 3.653 0.098 0.215 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.068 -0.195 2.893 0.067 0.167 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.090 -0.006 3.255 0.087 0.225 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.999 0.096 0.352 3.358 0.071 0.543 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.132 0.877 3.806 0.070 0.749 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.086 0.178 2.875 0.090 0.098 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.104 0.420 3.175 0.093 0.302 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.999 0.099 0.102 3.000 0.114 -0.058 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.110 -0.249 4.058 0.105 0.225 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.112 0.168 2.574 0.085 0.503 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.088 -0.343 4.163 0.090 0.132 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.110 0.282 4.189 0.104 0.240 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.115 0.041 2.955 0.105 0.314 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.086 -0.291 3.617 0.088 0.176 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.090 -0.333 3.349 0.083 0.327 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.069 -0.705 4.121 0.076 -0.016 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.073 -0.900 4.972 0.075 0.083 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.084 0.134 3.374 0.080 0.235 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.090 -0.122 2.939 0.087 0.221 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.092 -0.055 3.367 0.085 0.245 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.016 0.362 0.573 0.012 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.090 -0.105 3.251 0.084 0.225 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.019 0.406 0.797 0.019 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.999 0.068 -0.900 2.574 0.067 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.999 0.085 -0.272 2.939 0.074 0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.104 0.134 3.735 0.093 0.327 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.132 0.877 4.972 0.114 0.749 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.352 0.153 0.007 -0.366 3.046 -0.155 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.155 SERIES 704092 AND 704112 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.685 0.700 0.655 0.567 0.433 0.368 0.411 0.447 0.383 0.321 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.098 0.168 0.197 0.216 0.214 0.193 0.243 0.256 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.021 0.032 0.018 0.020 0.020 0.018 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.852 0.929 0.952 0.950 0.924 0.903 0.922 0.938 0.931 0.922 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.307 0.374 0.325 0.342 SDEV 0.277 0.244 0.219 0.225 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.925 0.946 0.935 0.940 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.069 -0.496 4.245 0.076 -0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.059 0.024 0.044 134 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.00 1.06 1.40 16.19 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.028 0.051 0.029 -0.010 0.034 -0.024 -0.021 0.083 -0.095 -0.027 PACF -0.028 0.051 0.032 -0.011 0.030 -0.022 -0.025 0.082 -0.088 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.078 0.035 0.036 0.067 -0.003 0.007 0.043 0.097 -0.138 -0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.078 2 -0.075 0.029 3 -0.077 0.032 0.041 4 -0.080 0.030 0.047 0.072 5 -0.080 0.030 0.047 0.073 0.005 6 -0.080 0.030 0.047 0.073 0.005 0.001 7 -0.080 0.029 0.044 0.071 0.004 0.004 0.039 8 -0.084 0.029 0.043 0.064 0.000 0.001 0.047 0.100 9 -0.071 0.035 0.044 0.064 0.008 0.007 0.050 0.089 -0.128 10 -0.078 0.040 0.046 0.064 0.009 0.010 0.053 0.091 -0.132 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2760.51 2759.88 2761.51 2762.77 2762.49 2764.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2766.48 2767.83 2765.51 2760.34 2761.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.078 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 0.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 100.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.078 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 1 0.040 0.123 2 704012 1 0.074 0.040 3 704031 1 0.038 -0.114 4 704032 1 0.160 0.243 5 704041 1 0.015 0.063 6 704042 1 0.028 0.140 7 704051 1 0.222 0.444 8 704052 1 0.481 0.676 9 704061 1 0.124 0.276 10 704062 1 0.166 0.343 11 704071 1 0.285 0.446 12 704072 1 0.089 0.215 13 704081 1 0.029 0.167 14 704082 1 0.085 0.225 15 704091 1 0.363 0.545 16 704092 1 0.604 0.750 17 704101 1 0.014 0.098 18 704102 1 0.108 0.305 19 704111 1 0.018 -0.058 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 1 0.103 0.226 21 704121 1 0.340 0.504 22 704122 1 0.037 0.132 23 704131 1 0.111 0.241 24 704132 1 0.153 0.316 25 704141 1 0.054 0.178 26 704142 1 0.192 0.327 27 704151 1 0.009 -0.016 28 704152 1 0.017 0.084 29 704171 1 0.082 0.235 30 704172 1 0.091 0.221 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.138 0.246 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.146 0.201 MEDIAN 1 0.090 0.225 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.128 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 -0.114 LOWER HINGE 1 0.037 0.123 UPPER HINGE 1 0.166 0.327 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.604 0.750 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.072 -0.375 3.022 0.080 -0.019 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.091 -0.429 3.744 0.099 -0.011 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.084 -0.263 2.672 0.093 0.019 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.094 0.004 3.380 0.108 -0.080 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.074 -0.175 3.402 0.079 -0.006 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.072 -0.245 2.770 0.078 0.012 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.082 0.565 4.277 0.093 -0.075 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.087 0.055 2.999 0.100 -0.142 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.084 -0.223 3.499 0.095 -0.063 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.081 -0.200 3.200 0.095 -0.080 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.081 -0.160 3.537 0.095 -0.145 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.103 0.161 4.731 0.110 -0.045 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.067 -0.173 3.176 0.073 -0.006 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.088 0.053 3.406 0.098 -0.043 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.081 0.153 3.891 0.094 -0.166 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.087 0.037 4.997 0.101 -0.229 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.086 0.181 3.010 0.095 -0.007 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.099 0.366 3.703 0.109 -0.041 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.099 0.139 3.047 0.110 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.107 -0.311 4.032 0.119 -0.053 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.097 0.384 4.193 0.113 -0.171 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.087 -0.373 4.216 0.096 -0.019 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.107 0.328 4.546 0.118 -0.057 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.109 0.058 3.442 0.125 -0.078 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.085 -0.297 3.725 0.096 -0.025 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.085 -0.303 3.441 0.099 -0.100 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.069 -0.704 4.107 0.075 0.001 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.073 -0.905 5.039 0.078 -0.009 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.081 0.121 3.431 0.090 -0.040 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.088 -0.032 3.300 0.098 -0.047 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.087 -0.085 3.665 0.097 -0.057 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.011 0.320 0.627 0.013 0.061 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.085 -0.096 3.471 0.096 -0.044 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.014 0.436 0.907 0.015 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.067 -0.905 2.672 0.073 -0.229 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.081 -0.297 3.200 0.093 -0.080 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.094 0.139 4.107 0.108 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.109 0.565 5.039 0.125 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.438 0.109 0.005 -0.142 2.982 0.105 0.803 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.105 SERIES 704041 AND 704062 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.803 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.780 0.816 0.727 0.660 0.534 0.481 0.513 0.530 0.482 0.403 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.059 0.113 0.162 0.192 0.169 0.153 0.164 0.178 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.021 0.015 0.018 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.903 0.961 0.965 0.965 0.948 0.937 0.946 0.955 0.953 0.944 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.390 0.467 0.392 0.412 SDEV 0.186 0.168 0.168 0.179 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.946 0.962 0.951 0.955 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.071 -0.456 4.546 0.087 -0.311 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.034 0.012 0.046 117 316 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.32 1.00 1.05 1.37 2.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.311 0.055 0.011 -0.031 0.046 -0.031 -0.035 0.113 -0.112 0.001 PACF -0.311 -0.046 0.015 -0.023 0.031 -0.008 -0.051 0.094 -0.050 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.096 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.100 -0.313 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.039 0.020 -0.018 0.034 -0.034 -0.014 0.087 -0.096 -0.044 PACF -0.013 -0.039 0.019 -0.019 0.035 -0.035 -0.012 0.083 -0.094 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.067 -0.578 4.362 0.076 -0.088 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 -0.034 0.024 -0.023 0.038 -0.035 -0.019 0.095 -0.100 -0.034 PACF -0.088 -0.042 0.018 -0.021 0.036 -0.030 -0.021 0.088 -0.084 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.088 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES