RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park WIDTH_RING PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1785 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.028 0.457 0.845 3.392 0.201 0.819 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.760 0.237 0.705 3.003 0.190 0.731 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.347 0.435 0.757 2.898 0.158 0.811 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.889 0.463 0.856 2.873 0.183 0.920 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.259 0.308 0.341 2.802 0.180 0.576 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.866 0.366 -0.071 2.616 0.171 0.426 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.302 0.172 1.130 4.338 0.177 0.929 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.452 0.235 1.022 3.244 0.159 0.901 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.426 0.218 2.292 9.704 0.145 0.867 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.393 0.221 2.568 12.540 0.153 0.852 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.376 0.169 1.226 4.299 0.238 0.713 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.400 0.159 0.994 4.661 0.243 0.625 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.342 0.119 0.371 2.716 0.150 0.844 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.374 0.204 0.598 2.823 0.163 0.914 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.316 0.182 0.695 3.550 0.226 0.874 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.357 0.269 1.223 4.025 0.208 0.919 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.670 0.203 1.248 6.654 0.192 0.551 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.747 0.239 0.519 2.631 0.202 0.671 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.853 0.357 1.565 5.603 0.171 0.842 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.066 0.382 1.632 5.522 0.174 0.806 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.367 0.128 0.407 3.623 0.188 0.744 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.371 0.150 0.609 3.402 0.183 0.833 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.419 0.299 1.523 5.088 0.170 0.935 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.460 0.272 1.242 4.151 0.154 0.926 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.445 0.179 1.314 5.187 0.211 0.770 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.501 0.239 1.399 5.637 0.196 0.869 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.089 0.402 0.309 2.064 0.152 0.888 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.939 0.376 0.325 2.016 0.146 0.907 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.343 0.168 1.087 5.364 0.182 0.881 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.638 0.254 1.161 4.705 0.198 0.758 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 0.660 0.262 0.996 4.371 0.182 0.803 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.382 0.100 0.580 2.218 0.026 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 304 0.456 0.238 1.008 3.824 0.181 0.843 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 169 0.515 0.177 0.650 2.314 0.039 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.302 0.119 -0.071 2.016 0.145 0.426 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.374 0.179 0.598 2.873 0.159 0.744 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 0.889 0.357 1.248 5.187 0.198 0.901 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.866 0.463 2.568 12.540 0.243 0.935 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.235 0.314 0.015 -0.251 2.325 -0.579 0.920 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.579 SERIES 704032 AND 704121 143 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.920 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.563 0.834 0.349 0.685 0.520 0.270 0.320 0.250 0.389 0.465 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.276 0.089 0.279 0.318 0.266 0.342 0.367 0.318 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.060 0.017 0.025 0.029 0.024 0.031 0.028 0.021 EPS 0.773 0.966 0.847 0.969 0.945 0.855 0.888 0.862 0.932 0.956 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.316 0.236 0.253 0.387 SDEV 0.283 0.373 0.328 0.252 SERR 0.016 0.020 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.927 0.901 0.911 0.950 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.544 0.248 1.168 4.525 0.148 0.890 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.065 0.038 0.206 194 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.82 1.30 1.00 1.28 2.58 16.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.888 0.838 0.795 0.753 0.727 0.706 0.705 0.691 0.681 0.669 PACF 0.888 0.236 0.086 0.024 0.075 0.062 0.138 0.022 0.040 0.014 95% C.L. 0.096 0.154 0.192 0.220 0.243 0.262 0.279 0.295 0.310 0.323 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.831 0.589 0.204 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313576 1.28492391 2 704012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048721 0.79970783 3 704031 1 1.35895252 0.01271645 0.00000000 0.73862958 4 704032 1 1.43295109 0.02878339 0.00000000 0.55126530 5 704041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00307510 1.44195127 6 704042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080370 1.82084846 7 704051 1 0.60789120 0.02327051 0.00000000 0.21909995 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088500 0.31357950 9 704061 1 0.93590862 0.03083340 0.00000000 0.34072125 10 704062 1 0.94075990 0.02482809 0.00000000 0.28984445 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00091943 0.23341374 12 704072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010208 0.38365889 13 704081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105643 0.24815390 14 704082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00116181 0.17069460 15 704091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079207 0.15499853 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00144936 0.11168320 17 704101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206875 0.89243782 18 704102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00271571 1.04260242 19 704111 1 1.29292512 0.08025726 0.00000000 0.70678222 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348643 1.35385001 21 704121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013344 0.34645703 22 704122 1 0.39937332 0.02131497 0.00000000 0.31867486 23 704131 1 0.99853623 0.01656335 0.00000000 0.27183330 24 704132 1 0.85535824 0.00983824 0.00000000 0.26326230 25 704141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063158 0.55444854 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092844 0.65003914 27 704151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00173880 1.25288033 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348020 1.24906003 29 704171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108721 0.17726029 30 704172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054667 0.69454134 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.998 0.424 1.033 3.990 0.201 0.795 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.310 0.730 3.091 0.189 0.724 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.215 0.578 4.284 0.157 0.537 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.001 0.340 -0.111 2.658 0.182 0.783 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.230 0.479 3.401 0.178 0.510 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.196 -0.082 2.634 0.170 0.419 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.431 1.003 4.425 0.177 0.886 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.009 0.546 1.793 6.815 0.159 0.890 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.999 0.281 1.018 5.186 0.144 0.754 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.999 0.255 0.201 2.741 0.152 0.676 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.003 0.382 0.871 3.654 0.237 0.638 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.397 0.967 4.460 0.243 0.625 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.998 0.335 1.142 4.134 0.149 0.850 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.032 0.582 1.473 6.491 0.163 0.869 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.030 0.704 2.012 8.975 0.220 0.872 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.065 0.832 1.619 5.101 0.206 0.903 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.221 0.803 4.573 0.191 0.251 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.002 0.229 0.590 3.528 0.202 0.344 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.267 0.167 2.586 0.167 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.298 0.989 3.707 0.173 0.714 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.352 0.584 4.408 0.187 0.736 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.347 0.376 3.143 0.183 0.789 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.526 1.637 6.344 0.170 0.907 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.001 0.390 1.072 4.672 0.153 0.869 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.999 0.364 1.172 5.356 0.211 0.727 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.994 0.424 1.306 5.228 0.195 0.836 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.999 0.351 0.197 2.145 0.151 0.867 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.993 0.326 0.051 2.250 0.145 0.848 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.017 0.408 0.126 2.979 0.182 0.839 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.388 1.031 4.418 0.197 0.746 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.005 0.378 0.828 4.246 0.181 0.730 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.014 0.144 0.566 1.523 0.026 0.170 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.352 0.919 4.209 0.180 0.768 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.002 0.142 0.765 2.010 0.039 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.993 0.196 -0.111 2.145 0.144 0.251 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.999 0.281 0.376 3.091 0.159 0.676 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.001 0.424 1.142 5.101 0.197 0.867 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.065 0.832 2.012 8.975 0.243 0.907 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.981 0.330 1.058 4.847 0.199 0.702 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.996 0.273 0.472 2.776 0.189 0.633 3 704031 1836 1983 148 0.997 0.198 0.551 4.584 0.157 0.459 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.985 0.255 0.057 2.718 0.182 0.630 5 704041 1866 1983 118 0.999 0.212 0.291 2.791 0.178 0.447 6 704042 1873 1983 111 0.999 0.190 0.079 2.670 0.170 0.382 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.983 0.236 -0.029 3.122 0.177 0.610 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.989 0.339 1.065 3.784 0.158 0.804 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.996 0.238 0.709 4.172 0.144 0.669 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.996 0.235 0.248 2.793 0.153 0.626 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.994 0.348 0.663 3.205 0.237 0.590 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.994 0.364 0.872 4.054 0.243 0.579 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.990 0.248 0.843 3.382 0.149 0.700 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.982 0.396 0.749 4.147 0.163 0.842 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.960 0.388 1.634 7.607 0.220 0.743 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.960 0.605 2.843 13.058 0.205 0.885 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.211 0.773 4.631 0.191 0.190 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.998 0.213 0.423 3.142 0.201 0.248 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.992 0.205 0.233 3.228 0.166 0.472 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.991 0.249 0.844 3.365 0.173 0.599 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.992 0.258 0.198 2.918 0.187 0.588 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.994 0.322 0.361 3.139 0.183 0.755 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.981 0.335 1.331 4.983 0.170 0.788 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.994 0.346 0.778 3.576 0.153 0.844 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.998 0.346 0.889 4.303 0.211 0.700 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.995 0.327 0.896 4.526 0.195 0.719 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.989 0.233 0.316 4.100 0.151 0.645 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.991 0.216 0.417 4.666 0.146 0.625 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.987 0.330 0.144 2.720 0.182 0.790 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.994 0.323 0.774 3.398 0.198 0.671 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 0.990 0.292 0.683 4.080 0.181 0.631 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.010 0.086 0.565 1.980 0.026 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 0.993 0.266 0.686 3.487 0.180 0.639 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.009 0.106 0.581 1.405 0.039 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.960 0.190 -0.029 2.670 0.144 0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.987 0.233 0.291 3.122 0.158 0.588 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 0.996 0.339 0.872 4.526 0.198 0.743 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 0.999 0.605 2.843 13.058 0.243 0.885 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.326 0.163 0.008 0.031 3.321 -0.179 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.179 SERIES 704041 AND 704091 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.660 0.760 0.585 0.538 0.473 0.252 0.393 0.320 0.427 0.441 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.175 0.257 0.323 0.233 0.272 0.293 0.291 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.027 0.033 0.023 0.029 0.021 0.025 0.022 0.019 EPS 0.837 0.947 0.936 0.944 0.935 0.843 0.916 0.898 0.942 0.952 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.309 0.264 0.297 0.397 SDEV 0.264 0.275 0.289 0.258 SERR 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.925 0.913 0.927 0.952 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.976 0.207 0.489 3.086 0.142 0.640 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.388 0.183 0.031 132 301 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.73 1.00 1.07 1.80 14.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.638 0.569 0.513 0.462 0.416 0.386 0.359 0.278 0.245 0.228 PACF 0.638 0.274 0.136 0.068 0.033 0.039 0.032 -0.082 -0.020 0.019 95% C.L. 0.096 0.129 0.151 0.166 0.178 0.186 0.194 0.200 0.203 0.206 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.467 0.414 0.197 0.110 0.069 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.562 0.549 0.479 0.462 0.444 0.376 0.333 0.229 0.212 0.189 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.562 2 0.371 0.340 3 0.324 0.288 0.139 4 0.307 0.254 0.101 0.118 5 0.295 0.244 0.076 0.087 0.099 6 0.297 0.246 0.077 0.091 0.104 -0.015 7 0.296 0.248 0.080 0.093 0.110 -0.007 -0.027 8 0.293 0.248 0.094 0.105 0.121 0.026 0.012 -0.130 9 0.288 0.248 0.095 0.109 0.124 0.029 0.020 -0.120 -0.036 10 0.289 0.249 0.095 0.109 0.123 0.028 0.020 -0.122 -0.038 0.010 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3769.66 3607.14 3555.88 3549.38 3545.32 3543.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3544.93 3546.61 3541.21 3542.66 3544.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.295 0.244 0.076 0.087 0.099 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 42.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 172.72 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.295 0.332 0.246 0.264 0.288 0.227 0.212 0.187 0.176 0.1623 0.146 0.134 0.122 0.111 0.102 0.093 0.085 0.077 0.070 0.0643 0.059 0.054 0.049 0.045 0.041 0.037 0.034 0.031 0.028 0.0258 0.024 0.021 0.020 0.018 0.016 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.0103 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005 0.005 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 5 0.565 0.415 0.161 0.118 0.146 0.017 2 704012 5 0.497 0.380 0.279 0.116 0.097 -0.092 3 704031 5 0.261 0.383 0.105 0.162 -0.078 0.005 4 704032 5 0.496 0.401 0.118 0.121 -0.005 0.201 5 704041 5 0.251 0.381 0.245 -0.116 -0.013 0.063 6 704042 5 0.196 0.397 0.049 -0.215 0.105 0.106 7 704051 5 0.413 0.464 0.113 0.060 0.020 0.108 8 704052 5 0.672 0.612 0.144 0.025 0.023 0.075 9 704061 5 0.470 0.545 0.132 0.009 0.072 0.001 10 704062 5 0.445 0.453 0.182 0.037 0.043 0.060 11 704071 5 0.434 0.354 0.260 0.061 -0.001 0.119 12 704072 5 0.418 0.354 0.257 0.011 0.083 0.079 13 704081 5 0.544 0.664 0.142 -0.137 -0.051 0.163 14 704082 5 0.736 0.659 0.130 0.081 0.082 -0.063 15 704091 5 0.589 0.538 0.246 0.028 0.047 -0.044 16 704092 5 0.794 0.746 0.154 0.085 0.018 -0.117 17 704101 5 0.082 0.164 0.153 0.002 0.085 -0.012 18 704102 5 0.086 0.214 0.125 -0.033 0.048 0.069 19 704111 5 0.266 0.367 0.121 0.061 0.024 0.086 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 5 0.405 0.457 0.074 0.114 0.067 0.046 21 704121 5 0.396 0.442 0.128 0.032 0.096 0.058 22 704122 5 0.632 0.436 0.196 0.132 0.096 0.021 23 704131 5 0.661 0.534 0.189 0.074 0.090 -0.012 24 704132 5 0.729 0.657 0.192 0.045 0.037 -0.057 25 704141 5 0.544 0.466 0.189 0.057 0.045 0.082 26 704142 5 0.555 0.524 0.200 -0.003 0.042 0.061 27 704151 5 0.507 0.465 0.316 -0.109 0.127 -0.015 28 704152 5 0.504 0.392 0.417 0.006 -0.059 0.003 29 704171 5 0.673 0.485 0.230 0.082 0.076 0.015 30 704172 5 0.469 0.639 0.003 -0.053 0.121 0.041 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.476 0.466 0.175 0.028 0.049 0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.182 0.130 0.083 0.086 0.055 0.071 MEDIAN 5 0.496 0.455 0.158 0.041 0.048 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.184 0.155 0.106 0.080 0.071 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.082 0.164 0.003 -0.215 -0.078 -0.117 LOWER HINGE 5 0.405 0.383 0.125 0.002 0.020 -0.012 UPPER HINGE 5 0.589 0.538 0.230 0.082 0.090 0.079 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.794 0.746 0.417 0.162 0.146 0.201 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.218 0.604 3.764 0.235 -0.001 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.196 -0.089 3.149 0.219 -0.018 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.171 0.354 4.441 0.184 -0.004 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.182 0.406 3.647 0.203 0.023 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.183 0.153 2.765 0.205 -0.009 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.170 0.174 2.465 0.195 -0.002 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.181 -0.015 3.515 0.205 -0.008 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.194 0.602 4.152 0.212 0.001 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.173 0.606 4.176 0.182 0.001 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.175 0.305 3.920 0.184 -0.011 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.261 0.498 3.975 0.279 -0.008 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.278 0.867 4.835 0.284 -0.003 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.167 -0.153 2.967 0.190 0.012 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.202 1.547 11.796 0.197 -0.009 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.249 0.327 5.056 0.267 0.000 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.003 0.260 1.141 8.473 0.270 0.029 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.203 0.696 4.585 0.205 -0.010 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.204 0.227 2.842 0.220 -0.004 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.176 0.376 3.591 0.193 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.192 0.460 3.800 0.210 0.002 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.200 0.064 3.223 0.227 -0.008 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.195 0.342 3.888 0.216 -0.003 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.195 0.779 4.829 0.207 0.001 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.180 0.547 4.153 0.197 0.002 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.233 0.600 3.780 0.257 -0.003 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.219 0.633 3.814 0.231 0.005 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.164 0.496 5.847 0.177 0.002 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.154 0.336 3.920 0.167 -0.002 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.189 0.461 3.776 0.209 0.000 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.236 0.530 3.875 0.252 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.200 0.462 4.301 0.216 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.001 0.032 0.346 1.791 0.031 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.195 0.460 3.881 0.208 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.042 0.298 0.850 0.036 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.154 -0.153 2.465 0.167 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.176 0.305 3.591 0.195 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.218 0.604 4.441 0.231 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.003 0.278 1.547 11.796 0.284 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.429 0.096 0.005 0.435 4.092 0.150 0.792 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.150 SERIES 704042 AND 704062 111 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.792 SERIES 704101 AND 704102 214 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.667 0.696 0.491 0.528 0.510 0.402 0.412 0.350 0.396 0.472 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.111 0.109 0.140 0.177 0.168 0.187 0.160 0.124 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.021 0.013 0.016 0.015 0.017 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.841 0.928 0.909 0.941 0.943 0.915 0.922 0.910 0.934 0.958 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.415 0.325 0.426 0.495 SDEV 0.130 0.158 0.142 0.126 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.951 0.934 0.957 0.967 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.995 0.144 0.310 3.588 0.165 -0.092 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.273 0.114 0.017 143 290 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.48 1.00 1.08 1.56 17.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.091 -0.043 0.044 -0.008 -0.031 0.025 0.063 -0.037 0.004 0.020 PACF -0.091 -0.051 0.035 -0.003 -0.028 0.018 0.066 -0.021 0.002 0.013 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 -0.092 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.025 0.061 -0.031 0.007 0.026 PACF 0.001 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 0.006 0.025 0.061 -0.032 0.007 0.026 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.001 0.001 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.994 0.188 0.358 3.096 0.139 0.564 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.563 0.549 0.476 0.457 0.444 0.390 0.369 0.288 0.274 0.246 PACF 0.563 0.340 0.133 0.114 0.106 0.013 0.021 -0.074 -0.013 0.000 95% C.L. 0.096 0.123 0.144 0.158 0.169 0.180 0.188 0.194 0.198 0.201 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.422 0.298 0.248 0.070 0.081 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.36 MINUTES