RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK006X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK006X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 704 1 Denali National-Park DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCGL - 704 2 United States of America White Spruce 750 6340-14935 1554 1983 - 704 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 704071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1833 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 704091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 29 IN 1 GAPS / 1755 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 704092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1785 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 704111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1958 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 0.726 0.061 -0.286 2.729 0.077 0.310 2 704012 1822 1983 162 0.655 0.075 -0.475 2.965 0.102 0.342 3 704031 1836 1983 148 0.616 0.060 -0.005 2.951 0.100 0.106 4 704032 1841 1983 143 0.584 0.064 -0.371 3.580 0.095 0.397 5 704041 1866 1983 118 0.665 0.058 -0.083 3.103 0.083 0.259 6 704042 1873 1983 111 0.666 0.051 -0.308 2.897 0.080 0.095 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.518 0.077 0.958 3.191 0.079 0.760 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.619 0.117 0.457 2.169 0.081 0.854 9 704061 1634 1983 350 0.583 0.069 0.273 3.294 0.085 0.555 10 704062 1621 1983 363 0.583 0.059 0.126 3.022 0.081 0.490 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.573 0.081 0.263 2.425 0.078 0.741 12 704072 1663 1983 321 0.586 0.073 0.047 3.038 0.103 0.383 13 704081 1808 1983 176 0.542 0.048 -0.142 2.851 0.077 0.363 14 704082 1635 1983 349 0.577 0.061 0.065 2.778 0.093 0.354 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.588 0.078 -0.173 2.822 0.079 0.694 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.643 0.110 0.434 2.690 0.071 0.848 17 704101 1770 1983 214 0.760 0.082 0.564 3.312 0.097 0.303 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.778 0.098 0.517 3.112 0.100 0.450 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.696 0.099 0.278 2.788 0.116 0.433 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.696 0.088 -0.178 4.216 0.115 0.293 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.693 0.104 -0.074 2.470 0.091 0.683 22 704122 1631 1983 353 0.686 0.081 0.360 3.714 0.097 0.395 23 704131 1577 1983 407 0.693 0.095 0.216 3.095 0.114 0.399 24 704132 1551 1983 433 0.720 0.092 0.054 3.176 0.113 0.365 25 704141 1637 1983 347 0.733 0.075 -0.362 3.266 0.095 0.331 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.741 0.094 -0.079 2.763 0.089 0.614 27 704151 1796 1983 188 0.718 0.063 -0.660 3.615 0.081 0.316 28 704152 1807 1983 177 0.707 0.054 -0.948 5.093 0.077 0.092 29 704171 1680 1983 304 0.566 0.098 0.037 1.923 0.086 0.798 30 704172 1778 1983 206 0.619 0.072 -0.099 2.397 0.092 0.476 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1551 TO 1983 433 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 257 0.651 0.078 0.014 3.048 0.091 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.070 0.018 0.391 0.604 0.013 0.214 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 304 0.660 0.076 0.016 2.994 0.090 0.396 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 169 0.123 0.032 0.451 0.502 0.020 0.298 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.518 0.048 -0.948 1.923 0.071 0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.584 0.061 -0.178 2.763 0.080 0.316 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 333 0.707 0.094 0.273 3.266 0.100 0.614 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 0.778 0.117 0.958 5.093 0.116 0.854 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.293 0.202 0.010 -0.514 3.014 -0.321 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.321 SERIES 704051 AND 704151 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 704081 AND 704171 176 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.634 0.721 0.637 0.588 0.410 0.345 0.385 0.449 0.382 0.329 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.129 0.158 0.238 0.257 0.251 0.205 0.256 0.276 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.030 0.022 0.023 0.023 0.019 0.020 0.018 EPS 0.820 0.935 0.948 0.954 0.917 0.894 0.913 0.938 0.931 0.925 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.297 0.376 0.330 0.355 SDEV 0.316 0.247 0.228 0.243 SERR 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.921 0.946 0.937 0.943 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.660 0.070 0.587 4.259 0.081 0.480 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.377 -0.195 0.221 45 388 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.31 1.00 1.04 1.35 2.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 307. 183. 107. 164. 347. 433. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.479 0.499 0.478 0.428 0.449 0.421 0.418 0.480 0.397 0.437 PACF 0.479 0.350 0.230 0.107 0.140 0.086 0.079 0.179 0.013 0.078 95% C.L. 0.096 0.116 0.134 0.149 0.160 0.171 0.181 0.190 0.200 0.208 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 8 0.443 0.118 0.180 0.154 0.058 0.081 0.039 0.055 0.198 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024839 0.74631906 2 704012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054633 0.69915575 3 704031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048135 0.58022064 4 704032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049300 0.54828030 5 704041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041020 0.68949151 6 704042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010030 0.65996891 7 704051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029917 0.47071129 8 704052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080771 0.49283996 9 704061 1 0.19592871 0.03960789 0.00000000 0.56868780 10 704062 1 0.13058743 0.02658450 0.00000000 0.57014740 11 704071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055875 0.48636222 12 704072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014873 0.56247175 13 704081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045570 0.50199997 14 704082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001282 0.57460427 15 704091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008762 0.56532729 16 704092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049736 0.55589074 17 704101 1 0.30503967 0.13714375 0.00000000 0.75025606 18 704102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017077 0.79709291 19 704111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00164847 0.60746294 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013471 0.68443513 21 704121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047790 0.61847764 22 704122 1 0.16800292 0.01124103 0.00000000 0.64427912 23 704131 1 0.15081277 0.00675134 0.00000000 0.64198017 24 704132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002410 0.71444798 25 704141 1 0.13507158 0.00352526 0.00000000 0.65472895 26 704142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000443 0.74056345 27 704151 1 0.18403949 0.00613238 0.00000000 0.60930085 28 704152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010719 0.69718349 29 704171 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093875 0.42328817 30 704172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048283 0.66934168 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.083 -0.060 2.682 0.077 0.289 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.108 -0.285 3.220 0.101 0.250 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.091 -0.143 2.766 0.099 -0.004 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.106 -0.114 3.819 0.094 0.339 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.085 0.139 3.117 0.082 0.202 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.076 -0.334 2.933 0.079 0.091 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.138 0.828 3.487 0.079 0.717 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.001 0.148 0.245 2.589 0.080 0.743 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.103 -0.254 2.806 0.085 0.437 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.090 -0.173 3.107 0.081 0.361 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.111 0.163 2.551 0.078 0.574 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.122 -0.021 3.027 0.103 0.352 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.078 -0.068 2.675 0.077 0.189 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.106 0.079 2.798 0.092 0.352 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.135 -0.033 2.648 0.077 0.712 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.161 0.409 2.619 0.070 0.823 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.098 0.304 2.891 0.097 0.171 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.126 0.529 3.285 0.099 0.449 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.121 0.311 3.093 0.116 0.223 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.126 -0.203 4.065 0.114 0.290 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.139 0.092 2.572 0.091 0.616 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.098 -0.430 4.007 0.097 0.180 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.126 0.424 4.070 0.114 0.309 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.128 0.047 3.132 0.113 0.362 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.096 -0.346 3.480 0.094 0.233 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.127 -0.074 2.762 0.089 0.613 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.074 -0.684 4.441 0.080 -0.002 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.077 -0.964 5.131 0.076 0.086 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.096 0.105 3.209 0.086 0.298 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.105 -0.292 2.714 0.092 0.362 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.109 -0.027 3.190 0.090 0.354 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.023 0.361 0.630 0.013 0.219 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.106 -0.046 3.060 0.090 0.324 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.035 0.417 0.766 0.020 0.247 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.074 -0.964 2.551 0.070 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.091 -0.254 2.714 0.079 0.202 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.126 0.163 3.480 0.099 0.449 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.001 0.161 0.828 5.131 0.116 0.823 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 704011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 704012 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 704031 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 704032 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 704041 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 704042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 704051 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 704052 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 704061 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 704062 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 704071 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 704072 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 704081 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 704082 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 704091 -67 242 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 704092 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 704101 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 704102 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 704111 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 704112 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 704121 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 704122 -67 236 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 704131 -67 272 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 704132 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 704141 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 704142 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 704151 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 704152 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 704171 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 704172 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.077 -0.082 2.836 0.077 0.175 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.094 -0.421 3.558 0.101 0.014 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.085 -0.284 3.001 0.099 -0.135 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.098 -0.316 3.953 0.094 0.237 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.078 -0.010 3.025 0.082 0.074 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.074 -0.330 3.068 0.079 0.058 7 704051 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.101 0.526 3.838 0.079 0.475 8 704052 1673 1983 311 0.999 0.129 0.117 2.648 0.080 0.664 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.091 -0.342 3.189 0.085 0.282 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.089 -0.162 2.994 0.081 0.337 11 704071 1674 1983 310 0.999 0.100 0.038 2.611 0.078 0.487 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.114 -0.087 3.225 0.103 0.258 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.076 -0.015 2.673 0.077 0.148 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.097 0.043 3.124 0.092 0.238 15 704091 1622 1983 362 0.998 0.108 0.373 3.610 0.077 0.571 16 704092 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.144 0.915 3.957 0.070 0.788 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.092 0.166 2.918 0.097 0.082 18 704102 1767 1983 217 0.999 0.111 0.337 3.118 0.099 0.294 19 704111 1877 1983 107 0.999 0.105 0.049 3.071 0.116 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 0.999 0.118 -0.333 4.277 0.114 0.193 21 704121 1672 1983 312 0.999 0.128 0.075 2.489 0.091 0.557 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.096 -0.425 4.158 0.097 0.136 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.123 0.369 4.100 0.114 0.275 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.125 0.044 3.035 0.113 0.324 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.093 -0.358 3.612 0.094 0.174 26 704142 1663 1983 321 0.999 0.096 -0.279 3.246 0.089 0.324 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.072 -0.696 4.457 0.080 -0.045 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.075 -1.041 5.292 0.076 0.050 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.093 0.187 3.521 0.086 0.261 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.096 -0.190 3.102 0.092 0.225 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.099 -0.071 3.390 0.090 0.250 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.018 0.379 0.636 0.013 0.214 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.096 -0.049 3.157 0.090 0.238 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.001 0.023 0.446 0.837 0.020 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 107 0.998 0.072 -1.041 2.489 0.070 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.999 0.089 -0.330 3.001 0.079 0.082 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.111 0.117 3.838 0.099 0.324 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.144 0.915 5.292 0.116 0.788 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.364 0.157 0.008 -0.419 3.127 -0.169 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 704092 AND 704121 312 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.676 0.745 0.668 0.582 0.432 0.376 0.411 0.455 0.395 0.346 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.105 0.163 0.201 0.230 0.227 0.195 0.249 0.254 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.023 0.031 0.018 0.021 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.846 0.942 0.954 0.953 0.924 0.906 0.921 0.940 0.934 0.930 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.319 0.375 0.346 0.368 SDEV 0.284 0.250 0.224 0.230 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.928 0.946 0.941 0.946 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.075 -0.534 4.025 0.082 -0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.028 0.044 132 301 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.39 1.01 1.08 1.47 3.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.030 0.056 0.034 -0.019 0.045 -0.018 0.008 0.108 -0.076 -0.012 PACF -0.030 0.055 0.038 -0.020 0.040 -0.014 0.004 0.107 -0.069 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.067 0.043 0.061 0.079 0.027 0.023 0.071 0.123 -0.127 -0.001 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.067 2 -0.065 0.039 3 -0.067 0.043 0.067 4 -0.073 0.039 0.073 0.086 5 -0.076 0.037 0.071 0.089 0.034 6 -0.077 0.035 0.070 0.088 0.035 0.017 7 -0.078 0.033 0.065 0.084 0.033 0.022 0.061 8 -0.085 0.030 0.061 0.074 0.025 0.018 0.071 0.123 9 -0.070 0.039 0.063 0.077 0.034 0.025 0.075 0.112 -0.124 10 -0.075 0.044 0.066 0.078 0.036 0.028 0.077 0.114 -0.128 -0.044 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2835.17 2835.20 2836.56 2836.62 2835.37 2836.87 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2838.74 2839.11 2834.52 2829.76 2830.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 9 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.070 0.039 0.063 0.077 0.034 0.025 0.075 0.112 -0.124 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.26 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.55 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 9) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.070 0.044 0.057 0.070 0.029 0.030 0.082 0.113 -0.126 0.0413 0.014 0.008 -0.004 0.009 0.013 -0.006 -0.023 0.024 -0.005 -.0010 -0.001 0.003 -0.001 -0.004 0.000 0.005 -0.004 0.001 0.000 0.0005 -0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 704011 9 0.126 0.113 0.137 0.053 0.157 -0.007 0.076 -0.009 -0.088 -0.161 2 704012 9 0.190 -0.041 0.203 0.179 0.161 -0.001 -0.030 0.034 0.145 -0.154 3 704031 9 0.083 -0.121 0.131 0.045 0.104 -0.045 0.007 0.089 -0.020 -0.144 4 704032 9 0.223 0.093 0.283 0.171 0.013 0.021 0.048 0.079 -0.051 -0.235 5 704041 9 0.127 0.039 0.118 0.246 0.106 -0.109 0.053 -0.149 0.016 -0.025 6 704042 9 0.088 0.073 -0.117 -0.061 0.079 -0.160 0.086 -0.124 -0.118 -0.092 7 704051 9 0.288 0.346 0.148 -0.003 0.045 0.089 0.001 0.012 0.116 -0.019 8 704052 9 0.510 0.438 0.130 0.013 0.127 0.080 0.102 0.009 -0.008 -0.061 9 704061 9 0.161 0.182 0.180 0.098 0.012 0.072 0.015 0.083 -0.012 -0.052 10 704062 9 0.189 0.232 0.170 0.128 0.012 0.038 -0.067 0.097 0.020 -0.013 11 704071 9 0.356 0.291 0.258 0.122 -0.004 -0.023 -0.031 0.101 0.159 -0.126 12 704072 9 0.178 0.165 0.216 0.088 0.022 0.106 -0.092 0.044 0.119 -0.064 13 704081 9 0.097 0.117 0.043 0.033 0.072 0.007 0.138 -0.035 -0.082 -0.194 14 704082 9 0.137 0.135 0.138 0.170 0.078 0.031 0.021 -0.026 0.037 -0.006 15 704091 9 0.431 0.327 0.216 0.073 0.069 0.044 0.011 0.045 0.129 -0.104 16 704092 9 0.666 0.529 0.261 0.031 0.069 0.017 -0.021 0.081 -0.002 -0.148 17 704101 9 0.093 0.069 0.015 0.142 0.046 0.137 0.021 -0.002 0.127 -0.131 18 704102 9 0.237 0.247 0.049 0.072 0.118 0.158 -0.011 0.047 0.158 -0.311 19 704111 9 0.140 -0.051 0.092 0.053 0.261 0.053 0.099 0.086 -0.028 -0.149 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 704112 9 0.242 0.080 0.223 0.234 0.102 -0.133 0.066 0.107 -0.019 -0.194 21 704121 9 0.436 0.268 0.249 0.127 0.112 0.068 -0.051 -0.035 0.101 -0.023 22 704122 9 0.087 0.093 0.142 0.043 -0.017 0.132 0.032 0.050 0.082 -0.064 23 704131 9 0.196 0.119 0.155 0.130 0.077 0.092 0.063 0.069 0.057 -0.079 24 704132 9 0.218 0.200 0.193 0.103 -0.015 0.107 -0.005 0.025 0.139 -0.070 25 704141 9 0.094 0.121 0.128 0.081 0.068 0.083 -0.041 0.035 0.092 -0.078 26 704142 9 0.251 0.136 0.229 0.147 0.127 0.072 -0.001 0.041 0.036 -0.128 27 704151 9 0.092 -0.045 0.115 0.101 0.102 -0.150 -0.050 0.095 0.012 -0.103 28 704152 9 0.082 0.012 0.065 0.029 0.159 0.079 0.118 0.062 -0.014 -0.144 29 704171 9 0.135 0.186 0.146 0.058 0.097 0.053 -0.064 0.072 0.041 -0.045 30 704172 9 0.133 0.163 0.192 0.060 0.109 -0.038 -0.076 0.082 0.075 -0.112 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 9 0.209 0.151 0.150 0.092 0.082 0.029 0.014 0.035 0.041 -0.108 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.142 0.144 0.084 0.068 0.061 0.083 0.061 0.062 0.077 0.070 MEDIAN 9 0.169 0.128 0.147 0.085 0.079 0.049 0.009 0.046 0.036 -0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.145 0.159 0.098 0.086 0.068 0.090 0.094 0.073 0.130 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 9 0.082 -0.121 -0.117 -0.061 -0.017 -0.160 -0.092 -0.149 -0.118 -0.311 LOWER HINGE 9 0.097 0.073 0.118 0.045 0.045 -0.007 -0.031 0.009 -0.014 -0.148 UPPER HINGE 9 0.242 0.232 0.216 0.130 0.112 0.083 0.063 0.082 0.116 -0.061 MAXIMUM VALUE 9 0.666 0.529 0.283 0.246 0.261 0.158 0.138 0.107 0.159 -0.006 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 704011 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.072 -0.258 2.879 0.079 -0.008 2 704012 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.086 -0.297 3.111 0.095 -0.024 3 704031 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.082 -0.219 2.796 0.089 -0.012 4 704032 1841 1983 143 1.000 0.086 -0.111 3.068 0.096 -0.006 5 704041 1866 1983 118 1.000 0.073 -0.112 3.328 0.079 -0.006 6 704042 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.071 -0.261 3.065 0.078 -0.001 7 704051 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.085 0.545 4.237 0.093 -0.003 8 704052 1673 1983 311 1.000 0.090 0.085 3.443 0.096 -0.003 9 704061 1634 1983 350 1.000 0.084 -0.343 3.819 0.092 -0.005 10 704062 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.080 -0.262 3.504 0.090 -0.002 11 704071 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.081 -0.458 4.518 0.089 -0.008 12 704072 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.104 -0.164 3.854 0.108 -0.003 13 704081 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.072 0.047 2.840 0.079 -0.008 14 704082 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.090 -0.074 3.768 0.099 -0.001 15 704091 1622 1983 362 1.000 0.081 -0.045 3.934 0.090 0.003 16 704092 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.083 -0.052 5.462 0.089 0.003 17 704101 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.088 0.222 2.965 0.099 -0.002 18 704102 1767 1983 217 1.000 0.097 0.094 3.029 0.106 -0.004 19 704111 1877 1983 107 1.000 0.098 0.008 3.200 0.110 -0.018 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 704112 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.104 -0.423 3.454 0.115 -0.038 21 704121 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.096 -0.072 3.785 0.105 0.000 22 704122 1631 1983 353 1.000 0.092 -0.421 4.464 0.099 -0.001 23 704131 1577 1983 407 1.000 0.110 0.345 3.945 0.120 0.000 24 704132 1551 1983 433 1.000 0.110 -0.035 3.513 0.123 -0.002 25 704141 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.088 -0.320 3.775 0.098 0.005 26 704142 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.083 -0.317 3.657 0.092 0.002 27 704151 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.070 -0.589 4.067 0.076 -0.013 28 704152 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.072 -0.912 5.085 0.074 -0.009 29 704171 1680 1983 304 1.000 0.087 -0.027 3.605 0.093 0.003 30 704172 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.090 -0.143 3.590 0.096 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 259 1.000 0.087 -0.152 3.659 0.095 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.000 0.011 0.281 0.638 0.013 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 307 1.000 0.086 -0.128 3.597 0.094 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 183 0.000 0.011 0.290 0.823 0.010 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 107 1.000 0.070 -0.912 2.796 0.074 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.081 -0.317 3.111 0.089 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 347 1.000 0.092 -0.027 3.934 0.099 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 433 1.000 0.110 0.545 5.462 0.123 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 435 0.452 0.110 0.005 -0.249 3.086 0.100 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.100 SERIES 704041 AND 704062 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 704151 AND 704152 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.92 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 1. 1. 21. 28. 120. 120. 120. 120. 171. 231. RBAR 0.794 0.843 0.720 0.682 0.533 0.493 0.522 0.540 0.495 0.436 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.070 0.104 0.168 0.193 0.176 0.144 0.156 0.147 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.020 0.015 0.018 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.910 0.968 0.964 0.969 0.948 0.940 0.948 0.956 0.955 0.951 NSS 2.6 5.6 10.4 14.4 16.0 16.0 16.8 18.7 21.7 25.2 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 351. 435. 435. RBAR 0.433 0.475 0.427 0.427 SDEV 0.147 0.155 0.158 0.174 SERR 0.008 0.008 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.955 0.964 0.957 0.957 NSS 27.6 29.3 30.0 30.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.074 -0.574 4.550 0.087 -0.163 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.030 0.010 0.047 97 336 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.42 1.00 1.06 1.49 3.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.163 -0.059 -0.046 -0.077 -0.032 -0.030 -0.046 0.042 -0.015 -0.017 PACF -0.163 -0.087 -0.073 -0.107 -0.078 -0.075 -0.094 -0.013 -0.044 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.096 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.072 -0.215 -0.140 -0.126 -0.145 -0.108 -0.095 -0.096 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.008 -0.007 -0.011 -0.008 -0.014 -0.062 PACF -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.008 -0.007 -0.011 -0.008 -0.014 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 9 0.005 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.008 -0.007 -0.011 -0.008 -0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1551 1983 433 0.999 0.072 -0.624 4.379 0.082 -0.070 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 0.036 0.046 0.065 0.019 0.004 0.051 0.107 -0.141 -0.024 PACF -0.070 0.031 0.051 0.071 0.025 0.000 0.044 0.108 -0.135 -0.059 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.101 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 -0.070 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES