RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK007L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK007L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 719 1 Glenn Highway, 10m sźdl. WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 719 2 United States of America White Spruce 100 6120-14935 1770 1983 - 719 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 719011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 719082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 719101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1869 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.138 0.116 2.881 14.657 0.256 0.661 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.105 0.032 0.078 2.462 0.183 0.748 3 719021 1906 1983 78 0.180 0.078 1.332 4.392 0.237 0.741 4 719022 1908 1983 76 0.218 0.069 0.479 2.971 0.227 0.596 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.196 0.230 4.566 27.854 0.364 0.533 6 719032 1820 1983 164 0.107 0.041 2.188 11.622 0.233 0.618 7 719051 1788 1983 196 0.134 0.058 1.015 3.875 0.201 0.764 8 719052 1771 1983 213 0.150 0.081 3.726 29.721 0.226 0.475 9 719061 1867 1983 117 0.174 0.058 1.170 4.158 0.269 0.452 10 719062 1902 1983 82 0.174 0.052 0.905 3.750 0.246 0.455 11 719071 1770 1983 214 0.111 0.053 2.245 9.522 0.206 0.808 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.117 0.048 1.344 5.831 0.233 0.611 13 719081 1882 1983 102 0.207 0.086 1.724 7.541 0.315 0.340 14 719082 1889 1983 95 0.210 0.070 0.629 3.496 0.280 0.388 15 719091 1898 1983 86 0.177 0.122 5.647 36.508 0.235 0.585 16 719092 1862 1983 122 0.145 0.056 1.759 6.939 0.244 0.608 17 719101 1817 1983 167 0.115 0.068 3.231 16.023 0.245 0.620 18 719102 1827 1983 157 0.150 0.117 2.857 11.445 0.249 0.676 19 719121 1810 1983 174 0.129 0.039 0.696 3.553 0.231 0.468 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.123 0.036 1.024 4.934 0.244 0.406 21 719131 1827 1983 157 0.134 0.046 1.203 6.543 0.211 0.625 22 719132 1828 1983 156 0.224 0.157 2.788 11.894 0.239 0.727 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 143 0.155 0.078 1.977 10.440 0.244 0.587 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.038 0.047 1.408 9.450 0.038 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 153 0.147 0.063 1.534 6.741 0.238 0.610 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.057 0.038 1.841 8.019 0.021 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.105 0.032 0.078 2.462 0.183 0.340 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.123 0.048 1.015 3.875 0.227 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.180 0.086 2.857 11.894 0.249 0.676 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.224 0.230 5.647 36.508 0.364 0.808 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.188 0.216 0.014 -0.101 2.409 -0.298 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.298 SERIES 719022 AND 719071 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 719032 AND 719091 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.192 0.319 0.150 0.209 0.202 0.203 SDEV 0.156 0.213 0.290 0.213 0.208 0.227 SERR 0.049 0.026 0.033 0.019 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.701 0.864 0.742 0.840 0.848 0.849 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.133 0.041 5.111 48.488 0.145 0.422 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.823 0.700 -0.044 109 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.11 2.11 1.00 1.28 3.39 54.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 72. 76. 102. 174. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.420 0.330 0.287 0.223 0.199 0.165 0.158 0.151 0.169 0.132 PACF 0.420 0.186 0.120 0.043 0.046 0.020 0.037 0.036 0.064 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.137 0.159 0.171 0.180 0.185 0.189 0.192 0.194 0.196 0.199 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.254 0.272 0.228 0.137 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00111714 0.05033174 2 719012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059556 0.07214414 3 719021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134916 0.23341991 4 719022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023773 0.22665264 5 719031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110219 0.11519540 6 719032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013690 0.09590080 7 719051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056192 0.07898744 8 719052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027953 0.11985561 9 719061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009823 0.16805039 10 719062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036297 0.18908763 11 719071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010053 0.10022114 12 719072 1 0.08211753 0.00719952 0.00000000 0.07367489 13 719081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103211 0.26050669 14 719082 1 0.05917275 0.01783932 0.00000000 0.18042618 15 719091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141214 0.11508345 16 719092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057901 0.10947297 17 719101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080175 0.04618651 18 719102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131358 0.04648212 19 719121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028355 0.15394858 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 1 0.08360019 0.03011953 0.00000000 0.10866403 21 719131 1 0.07683861 0.05746501 0.00000000 0.12586683 22 719132 1 0.43368962 0.04268476 0.00000000 0.16069080 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.990 0.660 2.490 9.973 0.253 0.656 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.999 0.243 0.044 3.507 0.182 0.624 3 719021 1906 1983 78 0.997 0.366 0.883 3.488 0.235 0.634 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.315 0.486 3.029 0.224 0.585 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.996 1.039 4.513 29.291 0.362 0.527 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.364 1.649 8.253 0.232 0.603 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.003 0.346 0.602 3.712 0.201 0.677 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.002 0.578 5.730 57.676 0.226 0.368 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.335 1.174 4.148 0.267 0.448 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.291 0.787 3.359 0.243 0.436 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.453 1.790 7.359 0.205 0.794 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.380 1.214 4.861 0.232 0.573 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.382 1.578 6.616 0.312 0.255 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.333 0.767 3.485 0.274 0.379 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.009 0.544 3.926 23.078 0.234 0.562 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.002 0.335 0.901 3.995 0.243 0.527 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.017 0.404 1.811 7.888 0.257 0.476 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.024 0.555 2.101 8.081 0.249 0.574 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.293 1.362 6.490 0.230 0.385 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.243 0.327 2.798 0.243 0.205 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.332 1.659 9.585 0.210 0.591 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.454 1.552 5.757 0.238 0.664 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.002 0.420 1.698 9.838 0.243 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.007 0.176 1.396 12.504 0.038 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.365 1.457 6.124 0.236 0.568 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.003 0.122 1.024 4.746 0.027 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.990 0.243 0.044 2.798 0.182 0.205 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.332 0.787 3.507 0.226 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.002 0.454 1.811 8.253 0.253 0.624 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.024 1.039 5.730 57.676 0.362 0.794 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 719012 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 719021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 719022 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 719031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 719032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 719051 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 719052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 719061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 719062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 719071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 719072 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 719081 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 719082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 719091 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 719092 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 719101 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 719102 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 719121 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 719131 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 719132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.969 0.535 2.683 13.178 0.252 0.561 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.997 0.215 -0.142 3.479 0.182 0.512 3 719021 1906 1983 78 0.989 0.272 0.533 2.721 0.233 0.403 4 719022 1908 1983 76 0.996 0.222 0.372 3.625 0.226 0.178 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.960 0.817 4.432 27.259 0.362 0.407 6 719032 1820 1983 164 0.993 0.298 1.120 5.165 0.232 0.466 7 719051 1788 1983 196 0.991 0.307 0.819 3.892 0.200 0.618 8 719052 1771 1983 213 0.981 0.402 2.952 22.251 0.226 0.408 9 719061 1867 1983 117 0.998 0.326 1.246 4.557 0.267 0.417 10 719062 1902 1983 82 0.996 0.266 0.592 2.879 0.243 0.357 11 719071 1770 1983 214 0.995 0.319 0.571 3.999 0.206 0.661 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.992 0.350 1.376 5.732 0.232 0.481 13 719081 1882 1983 102 0.997 0.367 1.494 5.946 0.312 0.228 14 719082 1889 1983 95 0.998 0.324 0.718 3.259 0.274 0.362 15 719091 1898 1983 86 0.996 0.385 2.658 15.180 0.234 0.429 16 719092 1862 1983 122 0.993 0.266 1.081 5.852 0.242 0.329 17 719101 1817 1983 167 0.998 0.348 1.451 6.574 0.257 0.394 18 719102 1827 1983 157 0.990 0.444 1.988 9.276 0.248 0.501 19 719121 1810 1983 174 0.998 0.278 1.756 10.525 0.230 0.288 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.238 0.373 2.860 0.243 0.168 21 719131 1827 1983 157 0.993 0.293 1.218 6.206 0.210 0.530 22 719132 1828 1983 156 0.995 0.374 1.205 4.676 0.237 0.552 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 0.991 0.348 1.386 7.686 0.243 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.010 0.129 1.046 6.487 0.038 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.995 0.322 1.212 5.448 0.236 0.412 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.005 0.102 1.164 5.651 0.025 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.960 0.215 -0.142 2.721 0.182 0.168 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.991 0.272 0.592 3.625 0.226 0.357 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.997 0.374 1.756 9.276 0.252 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.999 0.817 4.432 27.259 0.362 0.661 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.232 0.132 0.009 0.037 3.162 -0.128 0.616 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.128 SERIES 719022 AND 719072 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.616 SERIES 719021 AND 719022 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.243 0.275 0.141 0.164 0.229 0.258 SDEV 0.171 0.202 0.228 0.195 0.180 0.172 SERR 0.054 0.025 0.026 0.018 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.760 0.837 0.727 0.796 0.867 0.884 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.968 0.204 2.325 17.033 0.148 0.396 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.645 0.462 -0.195 67 147 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.53 1.01 1.15 2.68 18.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.394 0.207 0.108 0.009 0.003 -0.058 -0.058 -0.024 -0.015 -0.066 PACF 0.394 0.061 0.009 -0.056 0.011 -0.065 -0.015 0.018 0.003 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.137 0.157 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.160 0.394 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.555 0.244 0.121 0.059 0.009 -0.094 -0.095 -0.088 -0.056 -0.096 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.555 2 0.605 -0.092 3 0.609 -0.113 0.035 4 0.609 -0.114 0.040 -0.009 5 0.609 -0.113 0.037 0.007 -0.027 6 0.605 -0.112 0.042 -0.007 0.048 -0.122 7 0.609 -0.113 0.042 -0.008 0.051 -0.138 0.026 8 0.610 -0.119 0.044 -0.008 0.052 -0.143 0.051 -0.041 9 0.611 -0.120 0.047 -0.009 0.053 -0.144 0.053 -0.054 0.022 10 0.613 -0.125 0.052 -0.023 0.058 -0.145 0.058 -0.066 0.082 -0.099 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1631.72 1555.04 1555.24 1556.98 1558.97 1560.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1559.58 1561.44 1563.08 1564.98 1564.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.555 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.76 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 144.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.555 0.308 0.171 0.095 0.052 0.029 0.016 0.009 0.005 0.0028 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 719011 1 0.316 0.562 2 719012 1 0.272 0.518 3 719021 1 0.180 0.405 4 719022 1 0.049 0.182 5 719031 1 0.193 0.412 6 719032 1 0.250 0.470 7 719051 1 0.386 0.618 8 719052 1 0.229 0.477 9 719061 1 0.177 0.418 10 719062 1 0.129 0.359 11 719071 1 0.450 0.662 12 719072 1 0.234 0.482 13 719081 1 0.066 0.228 14 719082 1 0.137 0.369 15 719091 1 0.212 0.430 16 719092 1 0.111 0.333 17 719101 1 0.156 0.395 18 719102 1 0.291 0.505 19 719121 1 0.112 0.324 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 719122 1 0.029 0.169 21 719131 1 0.282 0.530 22 719132 1 0.309 0.556 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.208 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.108 0.130 MEDIAN 1 0.203 0.424 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.152 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.029 0.169 LOWER HINGE 1 0.129 0.359 UPPER HINGE 1 0.282 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.450 0.662 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.001 0.440 3.543 23.748 0.331 -0.010 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.183 -0.053 3.256 0.224 -0.040 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.249 0.501 2.635 0.281 -0.058 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.218 0.551 3.691 0.249 -0.026 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.743 5.430 37.411 0.412 -0.069 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.263 0.857 4.120 0.291 -0.087 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.241 0.578 3.803 0.261 -0.049 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.003 0.328 2.867 20.637 0.275 -0.028 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.296 0.959 3.542 0.309 0.025 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.248 0.632 3.424 0.281 0.001 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.239 0.748 4.528 0.278 -0.094 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.001 0.303 1.154 7.577 0.300 -0.008 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.357 1.546 6.086 0.349 -0.028 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.301 0.759 3.635 0.333 -0.012 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.348 2.321 11.482 0.285 0.079 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.251 0.969 5.307 0.279 -0.005 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.320 1.874 8.868 0.299 0.003 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.382 2.950 18.066 0.310 -0.115 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.263 1.626 10.691 0.274 0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.235 0.438 2.828 0.262 0.001 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.248 1.277 7.539 0.265 -0.010 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.311 0.930 4.671 0.302 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.308 1.475 8.979 0.293 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.001 0.114 1.273 8.720 0.039 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.280 0.964 4.989 0.283 -0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.080 1.242 7.055 0.035 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.183 -0.053 2.635 0.224 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.248 0.632 3.635 0.274 -0.049 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.328 1.874 10.691 0.309 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.003 0.743 5.430 37.411 0.412 0.079 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.201 0.109 0.007 0.434 3.728 -0.049 0.605 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.049 SERIES 719022 AND 719072 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.605 SERIES 719021 AND 719022 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.176 0.207 0.182 0.186 0.175 0.208 SDEV 0.152 0.152 0.167 0.161 0.153 0.153 SERR 0.048 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.678 0.780 0.783 0.820 0.823 0.852 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.983 0.176 1.945 13.876 0.181 -0.036 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.535 0.338 -0.112 72 142 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.14 1.00 1.11 2.25 11.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.036 0.011 0.039 -0.060 0.041 -0.072 -0.052 0.049 0.047 -0.057 PACF -0.036 0.010 0.039 -0.058 0.036 -0.070 -0.054 0.041 0.062 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.012 0.037 -0.058 0.037 -0.072 -0.053 0.048 0.047 -0.055 PACF 0.000 0.012 0.037 -0.058 0.036 -0.073 -0.050 0.045 0.058 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.983 0.213 1.156 7.591 0.143 0.562 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.559 0.318 0.176 0.051 0.022 -0.044 -0.036 0.023 0.030 -0.012 PACF 0.559 0.008 -0.008 -0.067 0.029 -0.075 0.030 0.069 -0.004 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.137 0.174 0.185 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.189 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.313 0.560 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES