RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK007N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK007N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 719 1 Glenn Highway, 10m sźdl. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCGL - 719 2 United States of America White Spruce 100 6120-14935 1770 1983 - 719 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 719021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 719051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1929 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 719082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 719122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.355 0.047 0.095 1.973 0.049 0.869 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.328 0.031 1.183 5.195 0.058 0.646 3 719021 1906 1983 78 0.320 0.027 -0.263 2.757 0.057 0.670 4 719022 1908 1983 76 0.306 0.031 0.501 2.837 0.054 0.774 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.327 0.029 0.373 3.283 0.051 0.729 6 719032 1820 1983 164 0.336 0.028 0.625 3.291 0.051 0.662 7 719051 1788 1983 196 0.341 0.029 0.238 2.679 0.052 0.728 8 719052 1771 1983 213 0.336 0.036 1.022 5.047 0.048 0.807 9 719061 1867 1983 117 0.326 0.026 0.534 3.680 0.052 0.673 10 719062 1902 1983 82 0.310 0.020 0.220 2.551 0.058 0.294 11 719071 1770 1983 214 0.348 0.037 1.665 6.888 0.067 0.641 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.358 0.043 1.195 7.229 0.062 0.688 13 719081 1882 1983 102 0.309 0.020 0.323 2.533 0.051 0.540 14 719082 1889 1983 95 0.311 0.026 0.347 2.912 0.069 0.400 15 719091 1898 1983 86 0.317 0.018 0.358 2.958 0.047 0.409 16 719092 1862 1983 122 0.321 0.029 1.061 4.581 0.059 0.636 17 719101 1817 1983 167 0.328 0.048 0.821 3.477 0.051 0.861 18 719102 1827 1983 157 0.324 0.059 1.601 5.798 0.062 0.810 19 719121 1810 1983 174 0.325 0.023 -0.092 2.735 0.053 0.566 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.333 0.022 0.142 2.873 0.047 0.557 21 719131 1827 1983 157 0.330 0.031 0.879 3.710 0.049 0.762 22 719132 1828 1983 156 0.325 0.033 0.411 2.600 0.048 0.764 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 143 0.328 0.031 0.602 3.708 0.054 0.659 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.014 0.010 0.517 1.457 0.006 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.326 0.029 0.456 3.120 0.052 0.672 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.016 0.010 0.784 1.846 0.010 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 72 0.306 0.018 -0.263 1.973 0.047 0.294 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.320 0.026 0.238 2.735 0.049 0.566 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.336 0.036 1.022 4.581 0.058 0.764 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.358 0.059 1.665 7.229 0.069 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.266 0.241 0.016 -0.192 2.482 -0.373 0.848 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.373 SERIES 719021 AND 719052 78 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.848 SERIES 719101 AND 719102 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.296 0.138 0.176 0.468 0.182 0.236 SDEV 0.168 0.297 0.355 0.218 0.261 0.231 SERR 0.053 0.037 0.040 0.020 0.019 0.015 EPS 0.806 0.685 0.776 0.946 0.830 0.872 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.333 0.020 0.334 2.742 0.035 0.744 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.138 0.074 0.001 74 140 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.09 1.00 1.08 2.18 16.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 72. 76. 102. 174. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.741 0.636 0.603 0.564 0.540 0.498 0.499 0.491 0.500 0.486 PACF 0.741 0.194 0.184 0.084 0.087 0.011 0.101 0.056 0.102 0.025 95% C.L. 0.137 0.198 0.233 0.261 0.283 0.301 0.316 0.331 0.344 0.357 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.605 0.504 0.096 0.158 0.102 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081783 0.41913566 2 719012 1 0.08559953 0.02571537 0.00000000 0.30038947 3 719021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075523 0.28723058 4 719022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012249 0.30081055 5 719031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005999 0.32231033 6 719032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002563 0.33434910 7 719051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022131 0.36171219 8 719052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025096 0.36239216 9 719061 1 0.30812970 0.00140376 0.00000000 0.04195637 10 719062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023367 0.30066848 11 719071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006179 0.34176913 12 719072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009619 0.34844428 13 719081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008838 0.30417395 14 719082 1 0.04923327 0.12667429 0.00000000 0.30589026 15 719091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002585 0.31763613 16 719092 1 0.09271768 0.09155464 0.00000000 0.31346700 17 719101 1 0.19100767 0.01003035 0.00000000 0.23594075 18 719102 1 0.19167660 0.01954795 0.00000000 0.26516977 19 719121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012095 0.31476182 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 1 0.05141953 0.12310424 0.00000000 0.33055893 21 719131 1 0.08464685 0.00643194 0.00000000 0.27644062 22 719132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048005 0.36236313 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.079 0.771 3.936 0.049 0.671 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.064 0.607 4.963 0.058 0.272 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.070 0.092 2.926 0.056 0.476 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.102 0.465 2.679 0.053 0.762 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.088 0.433 3.441 0.051 0.723 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.082 0.664 3.328 0.051 0.658 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.079 0.189 2.620 0.052 0.671 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.097 1.376 5.629 0.048 0.772 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.067 0.181 3.599 0.052 0.527 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.061 0.004 2.588 0.058 0.240 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.105 1.503 6.487 0.067 0.632 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.118 1.229 7.256 0.062 0.679 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.066 0.257 2.436 0.051 0.526 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.080 0.493 3.436 0.069 0.331 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.057 0.359 2.961 0.046 0.406 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.074 0.603 3.324 0.059 0.482 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.060 0.212 3.158 0.051 0.347 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.090 1.124 5.077 0.062 0.429 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.069 -0.070 2.877 0.052 0.531 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.062 0.246 3.201 0.047 0.505 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.081 0.770 3.793 0.049 0.692 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.074 -0.092 3.995 0.048 0.542 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.078 0.519 3.805 0.054 0.540 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.016 0.458 1.298 0.006 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.077 0.449 3.382 0.052 0.529 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.023 0.581 1.069 0.009 0.243 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.057 -0.092 2.436 0.046 0.240 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.066 0.189 2.926 0.049 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.088 0.770 3.995 0.058 0.671 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.118 1.503 7.256 0.069 0.772 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 719012 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 719021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 719022 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 719031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 719032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 719051 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 719052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 719061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 719062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 719071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 719072 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 719081 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 719082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 719091 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 719092 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 719101 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 719102 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 719121 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 719131 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 719132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.065 0.369 3.884 0.049 0.528 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.061 0.487 5.219 0.058 0.194 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.056 -0.025 2.777 0.056 0.229 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.054 0.100 4.197 0.054 0.220 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.999 0.072 0.625 4.349 0.051 0.584 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.064 0.397 2.843 0.051 0.441 7 719051 1788 1983 196 0.999 0.066 -0.019 2.789 0.052 0.527 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.079 0.961 5.185 0.048 0.657 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.064 0.183 3.611 0.052 0.491 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.058 0.196 3.165 0.058 0.146 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.098 1.548 6.658 0.067 0.581 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.999 0.093 1.181 7.945 0.062 0.511 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.058 0.174 2.130 0.051 0.395 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.073 0.723 4.250 0.069 0.177 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.046 0.178 3.587 0.047 0.113 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.066 0.568 3.480 0.059 0.364 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.059 0.232 3.199 0.051 0.319 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.088 1.121 5.109 0.062 0.405 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.064 -0.062 2.981 0.053 0.461 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.059 0.241 3.509 0.047 0.454 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.070 0.661 3.733 0.049 0.589 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.069 -0.110 3.824 0.048 0.480 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.067 0.442 4.019 0.054 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.013 0.444 1.347 0.006 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.065 0.305 3.672 0.052 0.447 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.013 0.487 1.184 0.009 0.298 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.999 0.046 -0.110 2.130 0.047 0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.059 0.174 3.165 0.049 0.229 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.072 0.661 4.349 0.058 0.527 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.098 1.548 7.945 0.069 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.263 0.151 0.010 -0.011 2.823 -0.168 0.666 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.168 SERIES 719052 AND 719072 201 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.666 SERIES 719021 AND 719022 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.297 0.174 0.162 0.285 0.252 0.305 SDEV 0.185 0.277 0.304 0.232 0.213 0.167 SERR 0.059 0.034 0.034 0.021 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.807 0.740 0.759 0.888 0.881 0.906 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.998 0.040 0.413 3.412 0.036 0.383 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.184 0.105 -0.052 76 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.21 1.00 1.12 2.33 42.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.381 0.187 0.166 0.061 0.037 -0.015 0.040 -0.011 0.029 0.030 PACF 0.381 0.049 0.094 -0.044 0.010 -0.050 0.071 -0.052 0.060 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.137 0.155 0.160 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.148 0.382 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.366 0.211 0.222 0.079 0.067 0.049 0.114 -0.049 -0.023 0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.366 2 0.333 0.089 3 0.321 0.042 0.139 4 0.330 0.045 0.158 -0.061 5 0.331 0.041 0.157 -0.069 0.023 6 0.331 0.041 0.158 -0.069 0.026 -0.006 7 0.332 0.038 0.166 -0.087 0.021 -0.044 0.113 8 0.350 0.031 0.169 -0.100 0.047 -0.038 0.164 -0.156 9 0.353 0.028 0.170 -0.101 0.049 -0.041 0.164 -0.164 0.020 10 0.353 0.026 0.172 -0.102 0.049 -0.042 0.165 -0.163 0.024 -0.009 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 925.70 896.95 897.26 895.11 896.30 898.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 900.18 899.45 896.15 898.06 900.04 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.366 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 115.46 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.366 0.134 0.049 0.018 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 719011 1 0.289 0.530 2 719012 1 0.040 0.199 3 719021 1 0.055 0.231 4 719022 1 0.050 0.221 5 719031 1 0.373 0.589 6 719032 1 0.216 0.441 7 719051 1 0.286 0.529 8 719052 1 0.513 0.671 9 719061 1 0.262 0.495 10 719062 1 0.023 0.148 11 719071 1 0.362 0.584 12 719072 1 0.307 0.516 13 719081 1 0.209 0.395 14 719082 1 0.048 0.179 15 719091 1 0.014 0.119 16 719092 1 0.136 0.367 17 719101 1 0.121 0.320 18 719102 1 0.275 0.409 19 719121 1 0.222 0.461 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 719122 1 0.265 0.455 21 719131 1 0.444 0.599 22 719132 1 0.265 0.499 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.217 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.142 0.163 MEDIAN 1 0.242 0.448 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.234 0.298 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.014 0.119 LOWER HINGE 1 0.055 0.231 UPPER HINGE 1 0.289 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.513 0.671 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.055 0.381 3.392 0.062 -0.054 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.059 0.425 5.272 0.064 -0.006 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.055 0.109 2.578 0.059 0.008 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.053 0.248 3.845 0.060 0.008 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.058 0.722 4.321 0.067 -0.111 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.058 0.193 3.673 0.063 -0.071 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.056 0.107 2.864 0.065 -0.046 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.058 0.724 4.864 0.069 -0.240 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.056 0.389 3.373 0.064 -0.076 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.057 0.177 3.072 0.062 0.005 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.080 1.115 5.783 0.092 -0.101 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.079 1.349 10.673 0.084 -0.126 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.053 0.038 2.418 0.063 -0.097 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.072 0.975 5.390 0.076 -0.024 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.046 0.265 3.513 0.050 -0.007 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.061 0.244 2.919 0.071 -0.015 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.056 0.139 3.762 0.062 -0.045 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.080 1.250 7.051 0.080 -0.148 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.057 -0.038 3.320 0.066 -0.049 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.053 0.273 4.353 0.060 -0.123 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.056 0.306 2.931 0.069 -0.227 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.060 0.431 4.535 0.065 -0.091 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.060 0.446 4.268 0.067 -0.074 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.009 0.401 1.837 0.009 0.070 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.057 0.290 3.718 0.065 -0.063 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.004 0.545 1.792 0.007 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.046 -0.038 2.418 0.050 -0.240 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.055 0.177 3.072 0.062 -0.111 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.060 0.722 4.864 0.069 -0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.080 1.349 10.673 0.092 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.289 0.114 0.008 0.298 3.348 0.011 0.629 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.011 SERIES 719072 AND 719132 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.629 SERIES 719021 AND 719022 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.372 0.248 0.216 0.259 0.283 0.360 SDEV 0.095 0.213 0.194 0.170 0.157 0.120 SERR 0.030 0.026 0.022 0.015 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.854 0.818 0.817 0.874 0.897 0.925 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.036 0.468 3.246 0.043 -0.100 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.146 0.076 -0.030 78 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.00 1.01 1.10 2.11 11.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.099 -0.055 0.086 -0.029 0.013 -0.061 0.063 -0.048 0.029 0.029 PACF -0.099 -0.065 0.075 -0.017 0.018 -0.068 0.057 -0.048 0.039 0.017 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.099 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.057 0.080 -0.020 0.004 -0.054 0.054 -0.040 0.027 0.027 PACF -0.006 -0.057 0.079 -0.023 0.013 -0.064 0.059 -0.050 0.046 0.009 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.999 0.038 0.350 3.265 0.035 0.351 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.349 0.098 0.096 0.013 -0.004 -0.035 0.027 -0.014 0.020 0.016 PACF 0.349 -0.027 0.081 -0.051 0.006 -0.045 0.066 -0.051 0.054 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.137 0.152 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 0.155 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.123 0.350 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES