RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK007T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK007T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 719 1 Glenn Highway, 10m sźdl. DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 719 2 United States of America White Spruce 100 6120-14935 1770 1983 - 719 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 14 719082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 6.909 0.720 0.648 2.595 0.062 0.723 2 719012 1873 1983 111 6.513 0.593 -0.167 2.543 0.063 0.643 3 719021 1906 1983 78 7.269 0.495 0.016 2.781 0.051 0.581 4 719022 1908 1983 76 6.982 0.583 0.148 3.129 0.059 0.584 5 719031 1839 1983 145 7.000 0.572 -0.491 3.676 0.070 0.356 6 719032 1820 1983 164 6.897 0.605 -0.202 3.046 0.072 0.469 7 719051 1788 1983 196 7.194 0.587 -0.709 3.204 0.055 0.657 8 719052 1771 1983 213 7.222 0.584 -0.431 2.869 0.060 0.570 9 719061 1867 1983 117 6.720 0.439 0.090 2.961 0.058 0.365 10 719062 1902 1983 82 6.814 0.407 0.170 2.438 0.053 0.413 11 719071 1770 1983 214 6.943 0.692 -0.388 2.833 0.072 0.624 12 719072 1783 1983 201 7.108 0.733 0.325 2.869 0.063 0.700 13 719081 1882 1983 102 6.881 0.520 0.118 3.946 0.070 0.270 14 719082 1889 1983 95 6.829 0.417 -0.315 3.450 0.075 -0.142 15 719091 1898 1983 86 6.811 0.638 -0.122 2.890 0.067 0.583 16 719092 1862 1983 122 6.789 0.559 0.256 3.048 0.068 0.471 17 719101 1817 1983 167 6.696 0.467 -0.194 2.670 0.061 0.411 18 719102 1827 1983 157 6.304 0.449 0.236 2.985 0.063 0.374 19 719121 1810 1983 174 6.650 0.591 -0.059 3.546 0.070 0.482 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 6.517 0.610 -0.223 2.909 0.071 0.550 21 719131 1827 1983 157 6.780 0.430 -0.628 3.358 0.051 0.516 22 719132 1828 1983 156 6.542 0.527 -0.215 3.021 0.057 0.593 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 6.835 0.555 -0.097 3.035 0.063 0.491 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.245 0.095 0.331 0.375 0.007 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 6.822 0.577 -0.145 2.973 0.063 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.286 0.138 0.463 0.370 0.012 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 76 6.304 0.407 -0.709 2.438 0.051 -0.142 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 6.696 0.467 -0.315 2.833 0.058 0.411 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 6.982 0.605 0.148 3.204 0.070 0.593 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 7.269 0.733 0.648 3.946 0.075 0.723 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.199 0.214 0.014 -0.186 3.229 -0.453 0.776 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.453 SERIES 719032 AND 719062 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.776 SERIES 719011 AND 719022 76 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.557 0.190 0.220 0.299 0.218 0.190 SDEV 0.101 0.241 0.249 0.249 0.233 0.215 SERR 0.032 0.030 0.028 0.023 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.925 0.761 0.821 0.895 0.859 0.838 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 6.778 0.315 -0.443 3.485 0.046 0.257 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.036 0.022 0.413 36 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.27 1.00 1.03 1.30 13.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 72. 76. 102. 174. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.332 0.194 0.131 0.161 0.125 0.160 0.228 0.162 0.317 PACF 0.255 0.286 0.070 -0.011 0.075 0.049 0.073 0.150 0.033 0.197 95% C.L. 0.137 0.145 0.159 0.163 0.165 0.168 0.170 0.173 0.178 0.181 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.147 0.182 0.287 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208914 6.74497700 2 719012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00797385 6.06688786 3 719021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01042224 6.85729599 4 719022 1 1.61978304 0.06163145 0.00000000 6.65020657 5 719031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00548394 6.60008621 6 719032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00344746 6.61247492 7 719051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00575831 6.62637854 8 719052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00304693 6.89604378 9 719061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127973 6.79524755 10 719062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00719191 7.11285448 11 719071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00297510 7.26253414 12 719072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00232913 7.34350061 13 719081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00612872 6.56525326 14 719082 1 0.24435458 0.03733683 0.00000000 6.77697611 15 719091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01415784 6.19552946 16 719092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00771258 6.31461048 17 719101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067726 6.75323725 18 719102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00400644 5.98769474 19 719121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00596057 6.12816286 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291453 6.23675013 21 719131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00141520 6.66800833 22 719132 1 0.72169507 0.04842046 0.00000000 6.44898129 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.103 0.684 2.631 0.062 0.710 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.082 0.072 2.929 0.062 0.577 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.060 0.091 2.516 0.050 0.440 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.063 -0.096 3.573 0.059 0.208 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.075 -0.707 3.861 0.070 0.230 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.084 -0.491 3.202 0.072 0.424 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.068 -0.708 3.522 0.054 0.499 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.077 -0.229 2.665 0.060 0.511 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.065 0.070 2.999 0.057 0.356 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.054 0.051 2.537 0.053 0.272 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.097 -0.183 2.705 0.072 0.592 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.101 0.166 2.669 0.063 0.676 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.071 0.189 3.455 0.070 0.172 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.060 -0.310 3.426 0.073 -0.148 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.076 -0.747 5.905 0.066 0.368 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.071 0.025 4.229 0.067 0.290 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.070 -0.239 2.711 0.061 0.405 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.065 -0.003 2.937 0.063 0.247 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.077 0.032 3.517 0.070 0.300 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.089 -0.525 3.309 0.071 0.504 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.063 -0.606 3.430 0.050 0.503 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.077 -0.388 2.874 0.057 0.542 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.075 -0.175 3.255 0.063 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.013 0.360 0.751 0.007 0.194 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.073 -0.139 3.101 0.063 0.415 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.018 0.561 0.812 0.012 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.054 -0.747 2.516 0.050 -0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.065 -0.491 2.705 0.057 0.272 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.082 0.070 3.517 0.070 0.511 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.103 0.684 5.905 0.073 0.710 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 719012 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 719021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 719022 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 719031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 719032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 719051 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 719052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 719061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 719062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 719071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 719072 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 719081 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 719082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 719091 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 719092 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 719101 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 719102 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 719121 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 719131 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 719132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.999 0.082 0.374 2.798 0.062 0.525 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.070 -0.231 3.295 0.062 0.426 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.053 0.358 2.632 0.050 0.302 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.062 -0.044 3.650 0.058 0.179 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.071 -0.601 4.122 0.069 0.151 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.075 -0.322 3.420 0.072 0.285 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.060 -0.745 3.751 0.054 0.370 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.062 -0.295 2.925 0.060 0.254 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.055 -0.106 2.814 0.058 0.129 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.050 -0.003 2.734 0.053 0.160 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.089 -0.299 3.249 0.072 0.517 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.999 0.074 -0.200 2.817 0.063 0.409 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.065 0.096 3.316 0.070 0.033 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.060 -0.233 3.306 0.073 -0.172 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.068 -0.510 5.103 0.066 0.211 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.061 0.240 4.728 0.067 0.055 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.060 -0.092 2.511 0.061 0.190 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.063 -0.018 2.751 0.063 0.210 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.072 0.208 3.900 0.070 0.219 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.074 -0.286 3.650 0.071 0.258 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.059 -0.473 3.309 0.050 0.430 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.070 -0.366 3.031 0.057 0.444 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.066 -0.161 3.355 0.063 0.254 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.009 0.298 0.667 0.007 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.064 -0.215 3.300 0.062 0.237 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.012 0.319 0.835 0.012 0.248 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.999 0.050 -0.745 2.511 0.050 -0.172 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.060 -0.322 2.814 0.058 0.160 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.072 -0.003 3.650 0.070 0.409 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.089 0.374 5.103 0.073 0.525 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.243 0.148 0.010 -0.095 3.397 -0.207 0.711 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.207 SERIES 719032 AND 719062 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.711 SERIES 719081 AND 719082 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.487 0.223 0.267 0.288 0.262 0.212 SDEV 0.125 0.194 0.206 0.207 0.201 0.202 SERR 0.040 0.024 0.023 0.019 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.904 0.795 0.855 0.890 0.886 0.855 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.041 -0.296 3.367 0.044 0.127 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.005 0.002 0.051 55 159 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.54 1.01 1.08 1.61 6.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.126 0.119 -0.012 0.008 0.017 -0.049 -0.025 0.065 0.061 0.204 PACF 0.126 0.104 -0.040 0.002 0.022 -0.056 -0.017 0.086 0.047 0.180 95% C.L. 0.137 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.028 0.113 0.105 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.108 0.155 -0.057 -0.077 0.036 -0.087 0.023 0.055 0.071 0.218 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.108 2 0.092 0.145 3 0.105 0.153 -0.089 4 0.097 0.167 -0.080 -0.089 5 0.104 0.173 -0.093 -0.097 0.079 6 0.110 0.165 -0.101 -0.083 0.087 -0.081 7 0.111 0.165 -0.100 -0.082 0.085 -0.082 0.010 8 0.110 0.172 -0.107 -0.075 0.094 -0.096 0.000 0.086 9 0.106 0.172 -0.102 -0.079 0.098 -0.091 -0.008 0.080 0.050 10 0.097 0.157 -0.101 -0.063 0.080 -0.076 0.010 0.050 0.031 0.180 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 921.61 921.12 918.58 918.86 919.15 919.83 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 920.42 922.40 922.82 924.29 919.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.092 0.145 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.24 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.34 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.092 0.153 0.027 0.025 0.006 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 719011 2 0.297 0.459 0.136 2 719012 2 0.198 0.383 0.105 3 719021 2 0.107 0.288 0.059 4 719022 2 0.061 0.214 -0.129 5 719031 2 0.110 0.109 0.280 6 719032 2 0.201 0.196 0.313 7 719051 2 0.158 0.327 0.118 8 719052 2 0.078 0.237 0.079 9 719061 2 0.056 0.109 0.165 10 719062 2 0.042 0.152 0.055 11 719071 2 0.306 0.401 0.226 12 719072 2 0.234 0.305 0.261 13 719081 2 0.045 0.026 0.210 14 719082 2 0.049 -0.155 0.102 15 719091 2 0.047 0.205 0.033 16 719092 2 0.009 0.052 0.057 17 719101 2 0.054 0.166 0.135 18 719102 2 0.067 0.178 0.151 19 719121 2 0.093 0.179 0.187 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 719122 2 0.130 0.198 0.235 21 719131 2 0.222 0.348 0.193 22 719132 2 0.234 0.374 0.171 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.127 0.216 0.143 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.089 0.142 0.098 MEDIAN 2 0.100 0.201 0.144 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.147 0.176 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.009 -0.155 -0.129 LOWER HINGE 2 0.054 0.152 0.079 UPPER HINGE 2 0.201 0.327 0.210 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.306 0.459 0.313 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.069 0.132 2.544 0.074 0.003 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.063 0.041 2.985 0.074 -0.010 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.050 0.235 3.076 0.057 0.007 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.060 0.118 3.274 0.064 0.009 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.068 -0.466 4.068 0.072 0.026 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.069 -0.510 3.525 0.080 -0.057 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.056 -0.526 3.434 0.063 -0.011 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.060 -0.318 3.169 0.067 -0.009 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.054 -0.031 2.961 0.062 -0.017 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.049 -0.095 2.808 0.056 0.006 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.074 0.137 3.139 0.087 -0.007 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.065 -0.394 3.100 0.073 -0.025 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.063 0.200 3.236 0.069 0.002 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.059 -0.041 3.311 0.066 0.010 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.066 -0.668 5.932 0.073 0.000 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.061 0.260 4.974 0.068 -0.002 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.058 -0.049 2.727 0.066 -0.003 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.061 0.132 2.894 0.068 0.005 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.069 0.059 3.809 0.075 0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.069 -0.195 4.013 0.078 -0.027 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.052 -0.280 3.302 0.059 -0.018 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.061 -0.688 3.893 0.067 -0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.062 -0.134 3.462 0.069 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.007 0.301 0.774 0.008 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.061 -0.045 3.255 0.068 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.010 0.526 0.824 0.010 0.023 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.049 -0.688 2.544 0.056 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.058 -0.394 2.985 0.064 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.068 0.132 3.809 0.074 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.074 0.260 5.932 0.087 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.268 0.140 0.009 -0.330 4.206 -0.215 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.215 SERIES 719021 AND 719131 78 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 719081 AND 719082 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.446 0.298 0.331 0.322 0.305 0.247 SDEV 0.136 0.165 0.166 0.156 0.164 0.182 SERR 0.043 0.020 0.019 0.014 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.888 0.852 0.889 0.904 0.906 0.878 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.041 -0.159 3.065 0.049 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.016 0.007 0.041 52 162 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.68 1.00 1.07 1.75 19.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 -0.060 -0.055 -0.057 0.029 -0.054 -0.016 0.037 -0.032 0.179 PACF -0.110 -0.073 -0.071 -0.078 0.003 -0.066 -0.039 0.019 -0.037 0.169 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.141 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.014 -0.078 -0.071 0.011 -0.056 -0.019 0.041 -0.009 0.188 PACF -0.005 -0.014 -0.078 -0.072 0.007 -0.065 -0.032 0.036 -0.018 0.179 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.007 -0.005 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.041 -0.171 3.068 0.045 0.084 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.084 0.119 -0.062 -0.066 -0.011 -0.057 -0.018 0.060 0.010 0.202 PACF 0.084 0.113 -0.082 -0.070 0.018 -0.047 -0.021 0.075 -0.003 0.182 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 0.074 0.114 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES