RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK007X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK007X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 719 1 Glenn Highway, 10m sźdl. DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCGL - 719 2 United States of America White Spruce 100 6120-14935 1770 1983 - 719 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 14 719082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1909 1911 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.777 0.085 0.304 2.311 0.061 0.751 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.737 0.079 -0.267 2.365 0.065 0.718 3 719021 1906 1983 78 0.842 0.049 0.126 2.864 0.047 0.505 4 719022 1908 1983 76 0.812 0.070 -0.341 3.940 0.062 0.581 5 719031 1839 1983 145 0.799 0.073 -0.676 3.505 0.073 0.443 6 719032 1820 1983 164 0.779 0.073 -0.199 3.187 0.080 0.456 7 719051 1788 1983 196 0.816 0.074 -0.708 3.020 0.055 0.718 8 719052 1771 1983 213 0.825 0.071 -0.444 2.626 0.058 0.641 9 719061 1867 1983 117 0.769 0.053 0.046 3.344 0.058 0.412 10 719062 1902 1983 82 0.789 0.051 0.275 2.710 0.052 0.483 11 719071 1770 1983 214 0.777 0.084 -0.565 2.939 0.073 0.670 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.798 0.091 0.247 2.705 0.065 0.735 13 719081 1882 1983 102 0.800 0.060 -0.064 3.608 0.076 0.181 14 719082 1889 1983 95 0.790 0.051 -0.389 2.968 0.081 -0.120 15 719091 1898 1983 86 0.784 0.077 -0.082 2.929 0.072 0.539 16 719092 1862 1983 122 0.778 0.065 -0.001 2.159 0.064 0.547 17 719101 1817 1983 167 0.758 0.058 -0.497 3.214 0.061 0.509 18 719102 1827 1983 157 0.709 0.063 0.147 2.755 0.067 0.578 19 719121 1810 1983 174 0.761 0.070 -0.230 3.563 0.078 0.419 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.741 0.074 -0.356 3.117 0.077 0.535 21 719131 1827 1983 157 0.774 0.053 -0.693 3.598 0.055 0.534 22 719132 1828 1983 156 0.749 0.068 -0.586 3.063 0.061 0.664 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1770 TO 1983 214 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 0.780 0.068 -0.225 3.022 0.065 0.523 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.031 0.012 0.329 0.456 0.010 0.196 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 0.778 0.070 -0.249 2.994 0.064 0.537 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.038 0.016 0.543 0.634 0.015 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.709 0.049 -0.708 2.159 0.047 -0.120 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 0.761 0.058 -0.497 2.710 0.058 0.456 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.799 0.074 0.046 3.344 0.073 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.842 0.091 0.304 3.940 0.081 0.751 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.223 0.229 0.015 -0.321 3.000 -0.505 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.505 SERIES 719032 AND 719062 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 719091 AND 719092 86 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.530 0.207 0.209 0.360 0.232 0.189 SDEV 0.105 0.240 0.285 0.270 0.239 0.212 SERR 0.033 0.029 0.032 0.025 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.918 0.780 0.811 0.918 0.869 0.837 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 0.770 0.040 -0.287 2.975 0.047 0.354 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.100 -0.061 0.114 38 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.20 1.00 1.06 1.26 3.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 156. 72. 76. 102. 174. 214. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.353 0.422 0.298 0.213 0.266 0.267 0.307 0.355 0.300 0.409 PACF 0.353 0.340 0.104 -0.020 0.116 0.138 0.135 0.157 0.052 0.196 95% C.L. 0.137 0.153 0.173 0.183 0.187 0.194 0.201 0.209 0.220 0.228 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.235 0.198 0.316 0.104 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055000 0.73355585 2 719012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00120516 0.66998851 3 719021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088823 0.80645353 4 719022 1 0.20468701 0.02335243 0.00000000 0.71717888 5 719031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069513 0.74835920 6 719032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039407 0.74633098 7 719051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088023 0.72977710 8 719052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048246 0.77325892 9 719061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005740 0.77253169 10 719062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101403 0.83147246 11 719071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036819 0.81654340 12 719072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036322 0.83484429 13 719081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069363 0.76417977 14 719082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021032 0.80218893 15 719091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193264 0.69953489 16 719092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00114179 0.70756674 17 719101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022648 0.73858017 18 719102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087097 0.64055610 19 719121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062777 0.70570195 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028477 0.71402317 21 719131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023918 0.75511760 22 719132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011941 0.73915219 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.105 0.408 2.362 0.060 0.717 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.095 0.177 2.872 0.064 0.652 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.053 -0.033 2.719 0.046 0.393 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.065 -0.211 4.184 0.062 0.174 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.085 -0.832 3.555 0.073 0.334 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.090 -0.519 3.333 0.079 0.415 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.068 -0.712 3.459 0.054 0.482 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.078 -0.332 2.495 0.058 0.554 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.068 0.036 3.349 0.058 0.408 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.056 0.046 2.373 0.052 0.315 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.105 -0.318 2.886 0.073 0.640 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.110 0.065 2.492 0.065 0.703 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.071 -0.001 3.224 0.075 0.081 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.065 -0.429 2.943 0.079 -0.104 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.075 -0.723 6.833 0.071 0.223 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.064 -0.318 3.352 0.063 0.241 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.075 -0.344 2.890 0.061 0.494 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.070 0.141 3.203 0.066 0.307 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.082 -0.220 3.433 0.077 0.268 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.096 -0.625 3.563 0.077 0.502 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.067 -0.701 3.751 0.055 0.514 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.090 -0.561 3.065 0.061 0.660 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.079 -0.273 3.288 0.065 0.408 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.016 0.344 0.919 0.009 0.212 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.075 -0.318 3.213 0.064 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.023 0.596 0.588 0.015 0.285 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.053 -0.832 2.362 0.046 -0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.067 -0.561 2.872 0.058 0.268 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.090 0.036 3.459 0.073 0.554 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.110 0.408 6.833 0.079 0.717 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 719011 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 719012 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 719021 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 719022 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 719031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 719032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 719051 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 719052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 719061 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 719062 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 719071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 719072 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 719081 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 719082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 719091 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 719092 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 719101 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 719102 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 719121 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 719122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 719131 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 719132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 0.999 0.083 0.168 2.829 0.060 0.544 2 719012 1873 1983 111 0.999 0.076 -0.355 3.095 0.064 0.481 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.050 0.115 2.721 0.046 0.325 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.064 0.088 4.237 0.061 0.119 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.078 -0.666 3.722 0.073 0.196 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.081 -0.324 3.481 0.079 0.276 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.060 -0.682 3.585 0.054 0.347 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.065 -0.558 3.085 0.058 0.352 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.055 -0.252 3.223 0.058 0.107 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.049 -0.155 2.668 0.052 0.118 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.097 -0.425 3.564 0.073 0.574 12 719072 1783 1983 201 0.999 0.080 -0.336 2.726 0.065 0.443 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.066 -0.126 3.240 0.075 -0.053 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.064 -0.351 2.820 0.079 -0.139 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.069 -0.641 6.444 0.072 0.076 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.057 -0.207 3.556 0.063 0.030 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.063 -0.120 2.556 0.061 0.280 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.068 0.125 3.167 0.066 0.269 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.076 -0.017 3.731 0.077 0.151 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 0.999 0.077 -0.434 3.887 0.077 0.223 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.062 -0.581 3.700 0.055 0.438 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.076 -0.541 3.150 0.061 0.511 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.069 -0.285 3.418 0.065 0.258 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.012 0.270 0.810 0.009 0.195 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.067 -0.330 3.231 0.064 0.273 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.015 0.421 0.871 0.015 0.320 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.999 0.049 -0.682 2.556 0.046 -0.139 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.062 -0.541 2.829 0.058 0.118 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.077 -0.120 3.700 0.073 0.438 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.097 0.168 6.444 0.079 0.574 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.251 0.153 0.010 -0.111 3.390 -0.218 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.218 SERIES 719032 AND 719062 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 719081 AND 719082 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.456 0.255 0.270 0.314 0.280 0.215 SDEV 0.142 0.188 0.227 0.217 0.218 0.196 SERR 0.045 0.023 0.026 0.020 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.892 0.823 0.857 0.901 0.895 0.858 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.042 -0.260 3.192 0.047 0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.071 -0.032 0.087 57 157 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.77 1.00 1.06 1.83 6.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.103 0.154 -0.013 -0.047 0.046 -0.004 0.040 0.101 0.077 0.235 PACF 0.103 0.145 -0.043 -0.066 0.068 0.003 0.020 0.099 0.058 0.200 95% C.L. 0.137 0.138 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.144 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.033 0.088 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.075 0.179 -0.019 -0.078 0.075 -0.020 0.084 0.120 0.085 0.227 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.075 2 0.062 0.174 3 0.069 0.177 -0.044 4 0.065 0.196 -0.037 -0.109 5 0.076 0.200 -0.057 -0.116 0.103 6 0.076 0.200 -0.057 -0.116 0.103 0.002 7 0.075 0.195 -0.051 -0.113 0.093 -0.002 0.049 8 0.070 0.195 -0.062 -0.100 0.099 -0.024 0.040 0.118 9 0.062 0.193 -0.061 -0.106 0.106 -0.021 0.028 0.113 0.062 10 0.051 0.172 -0.066 -0.103 0.086 -0.001 0.039 0.078 0.051 0.182 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 947.62 948.42 943.85 945.43 944.87 944.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 946.57 948.06 947.08 948.25 943.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.062 0.174 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.56 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.70 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.062 0.178 0.022 0.032 0.006 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 719011 2 0.321 0.489 0.113 2 719012 2 0.252 0.451 0.068 3 719021 2 0.123 0.357 -0.092 4 719022 2 0.041 0.143 -0.126 5 719031 2 0.108 0.147 0.252 6 719032 2 0.187 0.192 0.307 7 719051 2 0.150 0.301 0.136 8 719052 2 0.160 0.292 0.176 9 719061 2 0.089 0.088 0.196 10 719062 2 0.041 0.102 0.139 11 719071 2 0.378 0.425 0.262 12 719072 2 0.268 0.324 0.277 13 719081 2 0.050 -0.041 0.214 14 719082 2 0.025 -0.130 0.066 15 719091 2 0.012 0.071 0.077 16 719092 2 0.008 0.028 0.082 17 719101 2 0.106 0.236 0.164 18 719102 2 0.098 0.225 0.164 19 719121 2 0.070 0.121 0.200 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 719122 2 0.118 0.175 0.214 21 719131 2 0.225 0.352 0.198 22 719132 2 0.289 0.431 0.161 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.142 0.217 0.148 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.106 0.166 0.107 MEDIAN 2 0.113 0.209 0.164 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.250 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.130 -0.126 LOWER HINGE 2 0.050 0.102 0.082 UPPER HINGE 2 0.225 0.352 0.214 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.378 0.489 0.307 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 719011 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.069 -0.012 2.624 0.074 0.007 2 719012 1873 1983 111 1.000 0.067 -0.100 2.895 0.078 -0.008 3 719021 1906 1983 78 1.000 0.047 0.190 3.708 0.052 -0.007 4 719022 1908 1983 76 1.000 0.063 0.160 3.943 0.065 0.010 5 719031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.074 -0.544 4.004 0.077 0.020 6 719032 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.074 -0.517 3.599 0.087 -0.050 7 719051 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.056 -0.489 3.120 0.064 -0.016 8 719052 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.060 -0.513 3.242 0.066 -0.019 9 719061 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.054 -0.261 3.411 0.063 -0.038 10 719062 1902 1983 82 1.000 0.048 -0.281 2.658 0.054 0.013 11 719071 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.076 0.124 3.284 0.091 -0.011 12 719072 1783 1983 201 1.000 0.069 -0.565 3.455 0.075 -0.025 13 719081 1882 1983 102 1.000 0.064 0.024 3.310 0.072 -0.007 14 719082 1889 1983 95 1.000 0.063 -0.272 2.839 0.073 0.003 15 719091 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.068 -0.754 7.105 0.074 -0.001 16 719092 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.056 -0.233 3.549 0.064 0.000 17 719101 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.060 -0.058 2.865 0.068 0.007 18 719102 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.064 0.257 3.308 0.073 -0.001 19 719121 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.073 -0.180 3.797 0.080 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 719122 1793 1983 191 1.000 0.074 -0.405 4.049 0.083 -0.035 21 719131 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.055 -0.520 3.567 0.065 -0.008 22 719132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.064 -0.816 3.695 0.073 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 144 1.000 0.064 -0.262 3.547 0.071 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.000 0.008 0.309 0.897 0.010 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.064 -0.266 3.433 0.073 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 72 0.000 0.013 0.505 0.588 0.012 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.047 -0.816 2.624 0.052 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.056 -0.517 3.120 0.065 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.069 -0.012 3.708 0.077 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 1.000 0.076 0.257 7.105 0.091 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.286 0.143 0.009 -0.241 3.963 -0.154 0.711 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.154 SERIES 719032 AND 719062 82 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.711 SERIES 719081 AND 719082 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.76 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 10. 66. 78. 120. 190. 231. RBAR 0.436 0.332 0.354 0.354 0.338 0.261 SDEV 0.139 0.150 0.164 0.159 0.169 0.175 SERR 0.044 0.018 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.884 0.871 0.899 0.916 0.918 0.886 NSS 9.9 13.6 16.2 19.9 21.9 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.042 -0.249 2.867 0.052 -0.138 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.111 -0.048 0.096 50 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.59 1.00 1.06 1.65 5.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.137 -0.047 -0.033 -0.117 0.031 -0.039 0.010 0.044 -0.026 0.192 PACF -0.137 -0.067 -0.050 -0.136 -0.013 -0.057 -0.016 0.023 -0.019 0.188 95% C.L. 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.137 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.016 -0.068 -0.129 0.006 -0.040 0.012 0.055 0.010 0.206 PACF -0.003 -0.016 -0.068 -0.130 0.001 -0.050 -0.007 0.037 0.006 0.202 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 -0.003 -0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.042 -0.206 2.962 0.047 0.052 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.052 0.133 -0.058 -0.112 -0.009 -0.042 0.017 0.087 0.031 0.232 PACF 0.052 0.131 -0.072 -0.126 0.021 -0.013 0.004 0.084 0.019 0.209 95% C.L. 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.025 0.045 0.131 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES