RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK008E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK008E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 696 1 Moose Pass, Seward WIDTH_EARLY PCSI - 696 2 United States of America Sitka spruce 100 6030-14930 1664 1983 - 696 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 696021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 696041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1936 1936 / 1966 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 696011 1758 1983 226 0.616 0.286 0.831 3.605 0.242 0.759 2 696012 1781 1983 203 0.809 0.316 0.565 2.658 0.205 0.709 3 696021 1749 1983 235 0.646 0.391 0.757 2.947 0.276 0.824 4 696022 1778 1983 206 0.725 0.419 0.466 2.153 0.271 0.845 5 696031 1819 1983 165 1.074 0.438 1.096 5.706 0.217 0.713 6 696032 1839 1983 145 0.824 0.389 1.416 7.992 0.203 0.830 7 696041 1756 1983 228 0.395 0.318 1.446 4.616 0.312 0.904 8 696042 1766 1983 218 0.632 0.329 0.815 3.519 0.242 0.804 9 696051 1796 1983 188 0.585 0.333 1.774 8.423 0.282 0.675 10 696052 1804 1983 180 0.740 0.351 0.327 2.709 0.230 0.821 11 696071 1715 1983 269 0.788 0.387 0.340 2.713 0.239 0.826 12 696072 1711 1983 273 0.715 0.399 0.837 3.189 0.245 0.848 13 696081 1846 1983 138 1.102 0.592 2.719 14.594 0.198 0.779 14 696082 1847 1983 137 1.241 0.678 3.837 23.479 0.197 0.761 15 696091 1828 1983 156 0.882 0.485 1.358 5.952 0.265 0.831 16 696092 1780 1983 204 0.685 0.388 0.942 3.598 0.270 0.870 17 696101 1731 1983 253 0.869 0.408 0.528 3.149 0.185 0.860 18 696102 1664 1983 320 0.692 0.299 0.924 3.939 0.219 0.793 19 696111 1826 1983 158 1.192 0.672 0.792 3.202 0.324 0.791 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 696112 1863 1983 121 1.719 0.710 -0.230 2.417 0.244 0.783 21 696121 1790 1983 194 0.430 0.246 1.076 3.653 0.302 0.760 22 696122 1777 1983 207 0.672 0.371 1.004 4.129 0.322 0.765 23 696131 1753 1983 231 0.573 0.346 1.011 3.397 0.240 0.901 24 696132 1820 1983 164 0.694 0.270 0.450 3.174 0.222 0.780 25 696141 1753 1983 231 0.459 0.342 1.537 5.375 0.319 0.879 26 696142 1749 1983 235 0.429 0.240 1.326 4.673 0.243 0.844 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1664 TO 1983 320 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 0.776 0.400 1.075 5.191 0.251 0.806 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.294 0.129 0.799 4.542 0.041 0.058 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 205 0.705 0.379 0.933 3.602 0.243 0.813 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.253 0.101 0.792 2.226 0.057 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.395 0.240 -0.230 2.153 0.185 0.675 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.616 0.318 0.565 3.149 0.219 0.765 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 0.869 0.419 1.358 5.375 0.276 0.845 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 1.719 0.710 3.837 23.479 0.324 0.904 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.249 0.285 0.016 -0.262 2.638 -0.463 0.910 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.463 SERIES 696092 AND 696101 204 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.910 SERIES 696081 AND 696082 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 6. 55. 120. 190. 253. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.607 0.377 0.233 0.263 0.257 0.343 0.356 0.350 0.312 SDEV 0.201 0.305 0.293 0.332 0.322 0.279 0.243 0.264 0.260 SERR 0.116 0.124 0.039 0.030 0.023 0.018 0.013 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.901 0.869 0.826 0.875 0.890 0.930 0.935 0.933 0.922 NSS 5.9 11.0 15.7 19.7 23.4 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1664 1983 320 0.680 0.227 0.415 3.599 0.197 0.717 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.343 0.269 0.130 94 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.96 2.22 1.00 1.19 3.42 22.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 205. 67. 121. 164. 231. 320. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.714 0.532 0.402 0.318 0.253 0.208 0.244 0.282 0.279 0.237 PACF 0.714 0.044 0.014 0.033 0.008 0.016 0.155 0.093 0.002 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.112 0.159 0.180 0.191 0.197 0.201 0.204 0.208 0.212 0.217 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.521 0.721 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 696011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00256992 0.90792447 2 696012 1 0.66431898 0.02479926 0.00000000 0.67993206 3 696021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183216 0.85977453 4 696022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00392814 1.13170779 5 696031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00374958 1.38473022 6 696032 1 0.90336305 0.00914766 0.00000000 0.32568169 7 696041 1 1.07491887 0.01479856 0.00000000 0.08425331 8 696042 1 0.81176275 0.02817989 0.00000000 0.50187850 9 696051 1 0.96174395 0.01344386 0.00000000 0.23707783 10 696052 1 0.78407288 0.01315252 0.00000000 0.44178113 11 696071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00098083 0.65520918 12 696072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014282 0.73495072 13 696081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00182338 1.22918856 14 696082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445946 1.54835975 15 696091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00147017 0.76657897 16 696092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00379435 0.29583356 17 696101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00438433 1.42629588 18 696102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121832 0.88710207 19 696111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00965593 0.42431590 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 696112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01285591 0.93463224 21 696121 1 0.09096105 0.01832228 0.00000000 0.40552437 22 696122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009753 0.66174054 23 696131 1 1.11065781 0.01449199 0.00000000 0.25570992 24 696132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117717 0.79083568 25 696141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258581 0.15909392 26 696142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076864 0.33789635 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 696011 1758 1983 226 1.002 0.374 0.648 3.605 0.242 0.624 2 696012 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.356 0.890 3.649 0.204 0.648 3 696021 1749 1983 235 0.990 0.557 0.877 3.751 0.276 0.801 4 696022 1778 1983 206 0.982 0.467 0.580 2.703 0.270 0.764 5 696031 1819 1983 165 0.998 0.366 1.094 6.232 0.215 0.673 6 696032 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.419 1.329 8.620 0.202 0.792 7 696041 1756 1983 228 1.007 0.464 1.857 9.224 0.318 0.566 8 696042 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.480 1.186 4.519 0.241 0.763 9 696051 1796 1983 188 1.001 0.353 0.532 3.549 0.281 0.519 10 696052 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.435 0.691 5.224 0.229 0.752 11 696071 1715 1983 269 0.999 0.497 0.552 3.156 0.238 0.816 12 696072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.555 0.803 3.113 0.244 0.844 13 696081 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.523 2.527 13.209 0.197 0.776 14 696082 1847 1983 137 0.997 0.497 3.610 21.918 0.196 0.737 15 696091 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.550 1.487 6.567 0.263 0.826 16 696092 1780 1983 204 0.983 0.435 1.002 4.116 0.268 0.749 17 696101 1731 1983 253 0.994 0.276 0.105 3.747 0.184 0.639 18 696102 1664 1983 320 0.997 0.375 0.648 4.041 0.218 0.727 19 696111 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.428 0.592 3.567 0.321 0.547 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 696112 1863 1983 121 0.992 0.349 -0.087 2.942 0.241 0.650 21 696121 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.573 1.121 3.846 0.301 0.752 22 696122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.553 1.014 4.155 0.321 0.761 23 696131 1753 1983 231 1.002 0.400 0.980 4.726 0.239 0.746 24 696132 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.380 0.441 3.298 0.220 0.767 25 696141 1753 1983 231 1.003 0.629 1.443 5.300 0.318 0.753 26 696142 1749 1983 235 0.999 0.532 1.167 4.358 0.242 0.813 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 0.998 0.455 1.042 5.505 0.250 0.723 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.006 0.088 0.746 4.084 0.041 0.088 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 205 1.000 0.450 0.935 4.078 0.242 0.752 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.004 0.157 0.594 1.733 0.058 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.982 0.276 -0.087 2.703 0.184 0.519 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.997 0.375 0.592 3.567 0.218 0.650 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.532 1.186 5.300 0.276 0.776 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 1.007 0.629 3.610 21.918 0.321 0.844 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 696011 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 696012 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 696021 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 696022 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 696031 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 696032 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 696041 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 696042 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 696051 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 696052 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 696071 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 696072 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 696081 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 696082 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 696091 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 696092 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 696101 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 696102 -67 214 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 696111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 696112 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 696121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 696122 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 696131 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 696132 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 696141 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 696142 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 696011 1758 1983 226 0.997 0.363 0.709 3.948 0.241 0.603 2 696012 1781 1983 203 0.992 0.316 0.845 4.319 0.204 0.566 3 696021 1749 1983 235 0.982 0.427 0.907 4.683 0.277 0.601 4 696022 1778 1983 206 0.985 0.394 0.821 4.664 0.270 0.639 5 696031 1819 1983 165 0.993 0.329 0.813 4.394 0.215 0.616 6 696032 1839 1983 145 0.985 0.365 1.068 7.421 0.202 0.742 7 696041 1756 1983 228 0.996 0.425 1.341 6.876 0.318 0.516 8 696042 1766 1983 218 0.990 0.373 0.811 4.274 0.242 0.612 9 696051 1796 1983 188 0.998 0.346 0.600 3.815 0.281 0.497 10 696052 1804 1983 180 0.989 0.371 0.224 3.094 0.229 0.699 11 696071 1715 1983 269 0.987 0.461 0.695 3.694 0.238 0.763 12 696072 1711 1983 273 0.990 0.477 0.805 3.833 0.245 0.746 13 696081 1846 1983 138 0.992 0.432 2.404 12.661 0.197 0.705 14 696082 1847 1983 137 0.995 0.412 3.132 19.294 0.197 0.672 15 696091 1828 1983 156 0.994 0.350 0.868 5.024 0.261 0.589 16 696092 1780 1983 204 0.993 0.363 0.630 3.439 0.268 0.576 17 696101 1731 1983 253 0.998 0.261 0.051 3.633 0.184 0.595 18 696102 1664 1983 320 0.994 0.335 0.514 3.342 0.218 0.651 19 696111 1826 1983 158 0.994 0.401 0.452 3.357 0.321 0.498 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 696112 1863 1983 121 0.997 0.329 -0.031 3.282 0.242 0.599 21 696121 1790 1983 194 0.983 0.487 0.800 3.291 0.301 0.715 22 696122 1777 1983 207 0.985 0.505 0.889 4.074 0.321 0.723 23 696131 1753 1983 231 0.989 0.347 0.647 3.747 0.239 0.666 24 696132 1820 1983 164 0.991 0.337 0.306 3.312 0.220 0.706 25 696141 1753 1983 231 0.976 0.497 0.932 4.028 0.318 0.654 26 696142 1749 1983 235 0.982 0.415 0.817 3.925 0.242 0.712 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 0.990 0.389 0.848 5.055 0.250 0.641 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.006 0.062 0.648 3.499 0.041 0.076 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 205 0.991 0.372 0.808 3.937 0.242 0.645 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.009 0.081 0.289 1.224 0.058 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.976 0.261 -0.031 3.094 0.184 0.497 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.985 0.346 0.600 3.439 0.218 0.595 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 0.994 0.427 0.889 4.664 0.277 0.706 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 0.998 0.505 3.132 19.294 0.321 0.763 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.324 0.151 0.008 0.220 4.189 -0.107 0.885 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 696131 AND 696142 231 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.885 SERIES 696081 AND 696082 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 6. 55. 120. 190. 253. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.710 0.368 0.278 0.297 0.257 0.394 0.398 0.334 0.357 SDEV 0.144 0.305 0.260 0.262 0.227 0.244 0.210 0.233 0.216 SERR 0.083 0.125 0.035 0.024 0.016 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.935 0.865 0.858 0.893 0.890 0.943 0.945 0.929 0.935 NSS 5.9 11.0 15.7 19.7 23.4 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1664 1983 320 0.972 0.300 0.570 3.859 0.207 0.629 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.133 0.133 94 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.41 1.00 1.10 1.51 7.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.627 0.418 0.291 0.199 0.136 0.117 0.128 0.154 0.174 0.156 PACF 0.627 0.041 0.024 -0.002 0.000 0.038 0.059 0.068 0.051 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.112 0.149 0.163 0.170 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.176 0.178 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.399 0.631 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.582 0.424 0.276 0.152 0.042 0.053 0.006 -0.003 0.023 0.002 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.582 2 0.507 0.129 3 0.510 0.140 -0.022 4 0.509 0.147 0.006 -0.054 5 0.505 0.148 0.017 -0.017 -0.073 6 0.511 0.149 0.015 -0.029 -0.116 0.085 7 0.514 0.145 0.014 -0.029 -0.111 0.102 -0.034 8 0.514 0.146 0.014 -0.029 -0.111 0.103 -0.031 -0.005 9 0.514 0.147 0.009 -0.024 -0.110 0.102 -0.037 -0.028 0.045 10 0.516 0.146 0.008 -0.020 -0.114 0.101 -0.037 -0.023 0.063 -0.036 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2795.39 2664.94 2661.58 2663.43 2664.50 2664.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2664.47 2666.11 2668.10 2669.46 2671.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.507 0.129 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 34.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 153.82 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.507 0.386 0.261 0.182 0.126 0.087 0.061 0.042 0.029 0.0202 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 696011 2 0.367 0.565 0.064 2 696012 2 0.329 0.519 0.086 3 696021 2 0.377 0.569 0.069 4 696022 2 0.479 0.521 0.216 5 696031 2 0.423 0.623 -0.005 6 696032 2 0.553 0.758 -0.020 7 696041 2 0.295 0.459 0.114 8 696042 2 0.430 0.487 0.226 9 696051 2 0.269 0.461 0.098 10 696052 2 0.493 0.694 0.008 11 696071 2 0.607 0.677 0.117 12 696072 2 0.598 0.693 0.101 13 696081 2 0.521 0.744 -0.039 14 696082 2 0.478 0.679 -0.005 15 696091 2 0.356 0.564 0.049 16 696092 2 0.340 0.567 0.016 17 696101 2 0.385 0.496 0.176 18 696102 2 0.436 0.636 0.030 19 696111 2 0.258 0.544 -0.083 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 696112 2 0.384 0.683 -0.138 21 696121 2 0.524 0.757 -0.048 22 696122 2 0.532 0.744 -0.021 23 696131 2 0.484 0.491 0.264 24 696132 2 0.517 0.595 0.161 25 696141 2 0.460 0.625 0.068 26 696142 2 0.517 0.791 -0.109 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.439 0.613 0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.101 0.103 MEDIAN 2 0.448 0.609 0.056 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.150 0.172 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.258 0.459 -0.138 LOWER HINGE 2 0.367 0.521 -0.020 UPPER HINGE 2 0.517 0.693 0.114 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.607 0.791 0.264 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 696011 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.289 0.534 5.606 0.311 0.000 2 696012 1781 1983 203 1.000 0.259 1.612 10.652 0.252 -0.006 3 696021 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.336 0.799 5.145 0.344 0.003 4 696022 1778 1983 206 1.000 0.286 0.545 3.980 0.316 0.046 5 696031 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.258 0.991 5.826 0.279 0.003 6 696032 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.244 0.984 6.406 0.264 -0.001 7 696041 1756 1983 228 1.001 0.357 0.609 5.530 0.396 -0.014 8 696042 1766 1983 218 1.000 0.282 0.559 4.831 0.306 -0.005 9 696051 1796 1983 188 1.000 0.294 0.311 3.651 0.337 -0.011 10 696052 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.264 -0.153 3.840 0.307 0.001 11 696071 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.293 0.875 6.336 0.301 -0.019 12 696072 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.296 0.429 5.377 0.330 -0.028 13 696081 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.299 3.525 26.452 0.256 -0.012 14 696082 1847 1983 137 1.000 0.303 4.721 39.657 0.253 -0.002 15 696091 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.281 0.362 3.964 0.311 0.006 16 696092 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.296 0.417 3.879 0.325 0.002 17 696101 1731 1983 253 1.000 0.205 0.300 4.763 0.214 0.017 18 696102 1664 1983 320 1.000 0.252 0.471 3.864 0.271 -0.002 19 696111 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.345 0.479 4.282 0.378 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 696112 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.261 0.060 3.655 0.281 -0.019 21 696121 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.336 0.425 3.624 0.388 0.006 22 696122 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.345 0.418 3.756 0.392 0.000 23 696131 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.249 0.313 3.921 0.274 -0.001 24 696132 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.234 0.143 3.309 0.262 0.006 25 696141 1753 1983 231 1.001 0.361 1.244 7.412 0.365 -0.020 26 696142 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.288 0.432 5.087 0.308 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 203 1.000 0.289 0.823 7.108 0.309 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.000 0.040 1.052 8.016 0.048 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 205 1.000 0.288 0.475 4.797 0.308 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 67 0.000 0.044 0.513 1.963 0.066 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.205 -0.153 3.309 0.214 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.259 0.362 3.864 0.271 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 231 1.000 0.303 0.875 5.826 0.337 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 320 1.001 0.361 4.721 39.657 0.396 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.374 0.114 0.006 0.430 4.675 0.053 0.873 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.053 SERIES 696051 AND 696141 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.873 SERIES 696081 AND 696082 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 6. 55. 120. 190. 253. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.294 0.212 0.392 0.467 0.414 0.400 0.383 0.377 0.371 SDEV 0.358 0.306 0.182 0.165 0.144 0.155 0.163 0.163 0.154 SERR 0.207 0.125 0.025 0.015 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.711 0.747 0.910 0.945 0.943 0.945 0.942 0.940 0.939 NSS 5.9 11.0 15.7 19.7 23.4 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1664 1983 320 0.989 0.217 0.503 4.520 0.246 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.107 0.053 0.124 103 217 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.05 1.00 1.15 2.20 12.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.81 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.002 0.028 -0.033 -0.003 -0.059 -0.030 0.033 0.042 0.010 PACF -0.058 -0.005 0.028 -0.030 -0.006 -0.060 -0.036 0.029 0.049 0.014 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 0.025 -0.032 -0.009 -0.061 -0.032 0.034 0.045 0.018 PACF 0.000 0.002 0.025 -0.032 -0.009 -0.062 -0.030 0.034 0.048 0.016 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.000 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1664 1983 320 0.986 0.268 0.546 3.651 0.190 0.579 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.577 0.415 0.279 0.164 0.105 0.058 0.065 0.102 0.125 0.129 PACF 0.577 0.122 -0.003 -0.042 0.004 -0.009 0.050 0.078 0.049 0.015 95% C.L. 0.112 0.144 0.159 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.170 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.348 0.508 0.126 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES