RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 736091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1808 1814 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.832 0.306 1.039 4.938 0.162 0.782 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.851 0.386 0.906 3.076 0.153 0.906 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.604 0.284 0.246 2.222 0.206 0.866 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.580 0.316 0.575 2.632 0.192 0.922 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.683 0.372 0.549 2.244 0.217 0.867 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.802 0.321 0.244 2.446 0.175 0.849 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.487 0.287 0.799 3.208 0.196 0.924 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.425 0.280 0.786 2.828 0.208 0.926 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.251 0.232 1.752 6.182 0.240 0.921 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.333 0.253 1.864 9.131 0.218 0.919 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.520 0.165 0.920 3.316 0.147 0.827 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.440 0.158 0.857 4.531 0.160 0.830 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.677 0.273 0.648 2.784 0.193 0.821 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.789 0.247 1.148 4.381 0.192 0.698 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.538 0.293 0.655 2.406 0.180 0.914 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.488 0.274 0.752 2.382 0.182 0.930 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.400 0.185 -0.281 2.358 0.172 0.889 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.435 0.376 1.804 6.071 0.216 0.921 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.511 0.177 1.001 5.072 0.172 0.774 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.449 0.208 1.171 4.459 0.184 0.835 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.342 0.248 1.496 5.603 0.237 0.898 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.407 0.262 1.428 4.686 0.235 0.842 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 0.538 0.268 0.925 3.953 0.192 0.866 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.170 0.065 0.530 1.749 0.027 0.061 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.499 0.274 0.882 3.262 0.192 0.878 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.252 0.074 0.523 2.492 0.044 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.251 0.158 -0.281 2.222 0.147 0.698 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.425 0.232 0.648 2.446 0.172 0.830 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 0.677 0.306 1.171 4.938 0.216 0.921 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 0.851 0.386 1.864 9.131 0.240 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.151 0.382 0.025 -0.050 2.107 -0.685 0.939 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.685 SERIES 736091 AND 736092 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.939 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.628 0.420 0.357 0.093 0.086 0.195 0.286 0.245 0.237 SDEV 0.192 0.328 0.322 0.563 0.461 0.404 0.331 0.299 0.411 SERR 0.079 0.072 0.070 0.055 0.035 0.029 0.022 0.022 0.030 EPS 0.917 0.869 0.890 0.656 0.655 0.838 0.898 0.875 0.865 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.500 0.137 0.103 2.700 0.128 0.835 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.684 0.627 -0.049 52 236 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 2.17 1.00 1.04 3.21 34.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.832 0.738 0.641 0.585 0.507 0.441 0.356 0.290 0.235 0.216 PACF 0.832 0.147 -0.016 0.084 -0.060 -0.019 -0.085 -0.027 0.008 0.082 95% C.L. 0.118 0.182 0.220 0.244 0.263 0.276 0.286 0.292 0.296 0.298 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.699 0.710 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 1 0.42573926 0.04373927 0.00000000 0.76792485 2 736012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015169 0.77570850 3 736021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034642 0.55052263 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060443 0.64024585 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00264928 0.92145187 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009149 0.79410863 7 736041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019474 0.45894381 8 736042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065364 0.33085939 9 736051 1 0.82937634 0.01931375 0.00000000 0.09406098 10 736052 1 1.12249649 0.05216547 0.00000000 0.25618455 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157941 0.38872728 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176894 0.26565775 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00398179 0.97561401 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218438 0.96625155 15 736081 1 0.90040141 0.01734895 0.00000000 0.15630658 16 736082 1 0.86791527 0.02545410 0.00000000 0.20856147 17 736091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197122 0.18360598 18 736092 1 1.47350490 0.02784161 0.00000000 0.16478895 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075253 0.44175103 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 1 0.88830012 0.10362878 0.00000000 0.40628746 21 736111 1 0.94392580 0.05320692 0.00000000 0.25420269 22 736112 1 1.00646949 0.06117538 0.00000000 0.32523605 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.361 1.415 6.534 0.161 0.756 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.483 1.072 3.401 0.145 0.919 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.450 0.335 2.516 0.202 0.851 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.998 0.521 0.709 2.920 0.184 0.914 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.992 0.490 0.441 2.191 0.216 0.821 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.401 0.260 2.454 0.174 0.845 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.585 0.784 3.211 0.196 0.919 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.998 0.628 0.642 2.462 0.209 0.912 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.481 0.577 2.682 0.239 0.787 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.571 0.240 2.245 0.216 0.912 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.001 0.265 0.167 2.284 0.146 0.773 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.003 0.297 1.106 6.339 0.159 0.691 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.001 0.319 0.708 3.173 0.192 0.710 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.277 0.911 4.154 0.191 0.623 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.007 0.432 1.151 4.066 0.179 0.850 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.006 0.385 0.715 2.808 0.180 0.835 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.985 0.452 0.407 3.209 0.168 0.839 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.002 0.340 0.826 4.037 0.215 0.680 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.001 0.351 1.544 8.610 0.171 0.749 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.383 0.543 2.450 0.183 0.810 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.591 1.452 5.105 0.235 0.843 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.999 0.544 1.811 6.346 0.233 0.803 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.999 0.437 0.810 3.782 0.191 0.811 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.004 0.108 0.455 1.747 0.028 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.441 0.712 3.191 0.187 0.828 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.002 0.170 0.666 1.692 0.044 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.985 0.265 0.167 2.191 0.145 0.623 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.999 0.351 0.441 2.462 0.171 0.756 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.001 0.521 1.106 4.154 0.215 0.851 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.007 0.628 1.811 8.610 0.239 0.919 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.994 0.297 0.769 5.699 0.160 0.715 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.983 0.355 0.168 2.211 0.145 0.852 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.989 0.372 0.362 3.347 0.201 0.767 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.989 0.355 0.857 4.887 0.185 0.783 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.989 0.418 0.416 2.796 0.216 0.753 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.987 0.301 -0.116 2.819 0.174 0.740 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.972 0.447 0.505 2.817 0.196 0.854 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.958 0.471 0.600 3.105 0.210 0.852 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.993 0.461 0.651 3.163 0.239 0.735 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.001 0.483 0.720 4.530 0.219 0.800 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.992 0.210 0.290 2.724 0.145 0.649 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.996 0.262 0.587 4.649 0.159 0.642 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.994 0.284 0.532 2.906 0.192 0.640 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.996 0.250 0.689 3.742 0.191 0.536 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.983 0.239 0.039 2.930 0.178 0.598 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.989 0.272 0.725 3.651 0.179 0.657 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.979 0.419 1.430 8.052 0.168 0.732 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.995 0.276 0.410 3.271 0.215 0.499 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.996 0.245 0.144 3.304 0.170 0.607 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.997 0.339 0.673 3.222 0.183 0.752 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.993 0.391 0.788 3.948 0.235 0.696 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.994 0.356 0.527 3.217 0.234 0.682 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.989 0.341 0.535 3.681 0.191 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.010 0.083 0.326 1.278 0.028 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.992 0.347 0.559 3.247 0.188 0.724 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.008 0.147 0.358 1.042 0.044 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.958 0.210 -0.116 2.211 0.145 0.499 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.987 0.272 0.362 2.906 0.170 0.642 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 0.995 0.418 0.720 3.948 0.215 0.767 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.001 0.483 1.430 8.052 0.239 0.854 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.241 0.239 0.016 0.020 2.208 -0.246 0.822 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 736032 AND 736111 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.822 SERIES 736111 AND 736112 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.650 0.518 0.354 0.212 0.124 0.175 0.238 0.251 0.313 SDEV 0.132 0.273 0.334 0.460 0.366 0.342 0.290 0.328 0.286 SERR 0.054 0.060 0.073 0.045 0.028 0.025 0.019 0.024 0.021 EPS 0.924 0.908 0.889 0.834 0.740 0.818 0.873 0.878 0.903 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.985 0.234 0.359 2.987 0.133 0.740 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.273 0.143 0.150 90 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 1.12 1.00 1.09 2.22 161.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.738 0.650 0.527 0.438 0.328 0.242 0.144 0.064 -0.018 -0.070 PACF 0.738 0.231 -0.029 -0.010 -0.077 -0.042 -0.075 -0.055 -0.064 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.118 0.170 0.202 0.220 0.232 0.238 0.242 0.243 0.243 0.243 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.570 0.565 0.234 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.656 0.583 0.496 0.403 0.287 0.238 0.148 0.085 0.035 -0.012 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.656 2 0.480 0.268 3 0.460 0.232 0.075 4 0.462 0.236 0.083 -0.018 5 0.460 0.244 0.107 0.028 -0.101 6 0.461 0.244 0.106 0.026 -0.104 0.008 7 0.461 0.238 0.108 0.033 -0.089 0.036 -0.061 8 0.459 0.239 0.104 0.034 -0.085 0.046 -0.043 -0.040 9 0.458 0.238 0.105 0.032 -0.084 0.048 -0.038 -0.030 -0.022 10 0.457 0.237 0.104 0.034 -0.087 0.049 -0.035 -0.022 -0.007 -0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2279.45 2119.25 2099.80 2100.18 2102.08 2101.15 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2103.13 2104.04 2105.59 2107.45 2109.15 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.480 0.268 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 47.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 189.20 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.480 0.499 0.368 0.311 0.248 0.202 0.164 0.133 0.108 0.0872 0.071 0.057 0.047 0.038 0.031 0.025 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.0107 0.009 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.520 0.676 0.062 2 736012 2 0.745 0.634 0.257 3 736021 2 0.616 0.626 0.192 4 736022 2 0.646 0.629 0.205 5 736031 2 0.610 0.547 0.277 6 736032 2 0.577 0.623 0.158 7 736041 2 0.748 0.723 0.160 8 736042 2 0.758 0.591 0.309 9 736051 2 0.597 0.487 0.339 10 736052 2 0.724 0.565 0.320 11 736061 2 0.426 0.601 0.074 12 736062 2 0.454 0.473 0.263 13 736071 2 0.433 0.534 0.169 14 736072 2 0.315 0.482 0.110 15 736081 2 0.382 0.507 0.156 16 736082 2 0.436 0.642 0.027 17 736091 2 0.625 0.514 0.323 18 736092 2 0.282 0.435 0.136 19 736101 2 0.390 0.514 0.158 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.571 0.674 0.104 21 736111 2 0.512 0.575 0.178 22 736112 2 0.484 0.562 0.177 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.539 0.573 0.189 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.140 0.075 0.089 MEDIAN 2 0.546 0.570 0.173 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.193 0.115 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.282 0.435 0.027 LOWER HINGE 2 0.433 0.514 0.136 UPPER HINGE 2 0.625 0.629 0.263 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.758 0.723 0.339 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.205 0.327 6.948 0.219 0.002 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.179 0.094 3.892 0.187 0.001 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.231 0.685 5.966 0.238 0.013 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.213 0.295 4.490 0.220 0.027 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.262 0.616 5.003 0.258 -0.031 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.200 0.154 3.149 0.218 -0.032 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.222 0.573 6.661 0.239 0.017 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.233 0.611 5.199 0.238 0.029 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.292 1.561 12.748 0.282 0.008 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.252 0.573 5.412 0.248 0.016 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.159 -0.051 2.954 0.179 -0.004 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.193 1.025 7.489 0.196 -0.003 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.214 0.632 3.774 0.240 -0.014 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.208 0.569 3.952 0.231 -0.021 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.188 0.053 3.162 0.217 -0.015 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.204 0.601 4.887 0.224 -0.002 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.004 0.225 -0.121 7.633 0.214 0.024 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.236 0.123 3.723 0.262 -0.017 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.191 0.167 3.566 0.213 -0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.222 0.031 4.062 0.243 0.001 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.274 0.793 5.723 0.287 -0.025 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.256 0.664 4.792 0.280 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.221 0.454 5.236 0.233 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.001 0.032 0.396 2.181 0.029 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.218 0.571 4.839 0.234 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.037 0.509 2.192 0.031 0.029 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.159 -0.121 2.954 0.179 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.200 0.123 3.774 0.217 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.236 0.632 5.966 0.248 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.004 0.292 1.561 12.748 0.287 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.326 0.151 0.010 0.538 2.608 0.063 0.762 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.063 SERIES 736032 AND 736072 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.762 SERIES 736111 AND 736112 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.503 0.425 0.409 0.339 0.242 0.219 0.397 0.384 0.316 SDEV 0.102 0.206 0.215 0.195 0.194 0.202 0.169 0.165 0.165 SERR 0.042 0.045 0.047 0.019 0.015 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.869 0.871 0.910 0.906 0.865 0.857 0.936 0.931 0.905 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.994 0.142 -0.238 5.036 0.162 -0.025 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.177 -0.009 104 184 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.99 1.00 1.10 2.10 98.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.025 0.046 -0.016 0.086 -0.032 0.043 0.008 -0.028 -0.094 -0.058 PACF -0.025 0.045 -0.014 0.083 -0.027 0.035 0.014 -0.039 -0.091 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.121 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.011 0.081 -0.028 0.040 0.014 -0.029 -0.094 -0.063 PACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.011 0.081 -0.029 0.041 0.015 -0.037 -0.089 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.993 0.194 0.253 2.882 0.125 0.651 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.649 0.573 0.435 0.376 0.250 0.191 0.099 0.013 -0.070 -0.101 PACF 0.649 0.263 -0.018 0.040 -0.093 -0.020 -0.060 -0.097 -0.079 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.118 0.160 0.186 0.200 0.210 0.214 0.216 0.217 0.217 0.217 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.463 0.477 0.266 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES