RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 3.546 0.301 1.329 5.235 0.041 0.781 2 736012 1742 1983 242 3.455 0.249 0.401 2.916 0.042 0.724 3 736021 1730 1983 254 3.371 0.310 1.454 6.562 0.043 0.795 4 736022 1726 1976 251 3.607 0.301 0.899 4.096 0.047 0.653 5 736031 1805 1983 179 3.692 0.358 0.551 3.116 0.053 0.746 6 736032 1804 1983 180 3.506 0.334 0.535 3.510 0.051 0.738 7 736041 1696 1983 288 3.481 0.389 0.725 3.339 0.046 0.840 8 736042 1702 1983 282 3.676 0.451 0.862 3.238 0.046 0.875 9 736051 1714 1983 270 4.411 0.535 1.345 4.779 0.053 0.797 10 736052 1711 1983 273 4.216 0.462 1.039 3.722 0.049 0.806 11 736061 1819 1983 165 3.554 0.210 -0.196 2.615 0.038 0.671 12 736062 1788 1983 196 3.791 0.274 0.312 3.018 0.042 0.712 13 736071 1787 1935 149 3.293 0.242 0.538 3.379 0.049 0.639 14 736072 1781 1941 161 3.247 0.220 0.367 4.463 0.048 0.520 15 736081 1865 1981 117 3.326 0.317 1.993 6.553 0.048 0.814 16 736082 1870 1983 114 3.471 0.320 1.440 5.107 0.043 0.835 17 736091 1776 1983 208 3.650 0.469 0.979 3.848 0.052 0.843 18 736092 1792 1983 192 2.991 0.190 0.684 4.970 0.049 0.486 19 736101 1801 1983 183 3.783 0.280 -0.291 3.850 0.052 0.550 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 3.839 0.233 -0.105 2.517 0.048 0.494 21 736111 1787 1983 197 4.064 0.317 1.137 7.422 0.059 0.444 22 736112 1788 1983 196 3.987 0.341 0.371 3.531 0.052 0.678 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 3.634 0.323 0.744 4.172 0.048 0.702 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.331 0.091 0.576 1.340 0.005 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 3.580 0.314 0.705 3.785 0.048 0.731 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.336 0.109 0.766 1.732 0.009 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 114 2.991 0.190 -0.291 2.517 0.038 0.444 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 3.455 0.249 0.371 3.238 0.043 0.639 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 3.791 0.358 1.137 4.970 0.052 0.806 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 4.411 0.535 1.993 7.422 0.059 0.875 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.118 0.259 0.017 0.020 2.478 -0.479 0.785 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.479 SERIES 736042 AND 736071 149 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.785 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.168 0.425 0.319 0.119 0.100 0.151 0.213 0.190 0.193 SDEV 0.256 0.256 0.286 0.343 0.331 0.254 0.245 0.240 0.277 SERR 0.104 0.056 0.062 0.034 0.025 0.018 0.016 0.017 0.020 EPS 0.570 0.871 0.872 0.716 0.691 0.791 0.856 0.834 0.831 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 3.679 0.173 0.587 3.411 0.031 0.622 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.027 -0.025 0.496 76 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.69 1.01 1.10 1.79 58.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.620 0.523 0.483 0.456 0.430 0.393 0.373 0.385 0.360 0.336 PACF 0.620 0.226 0.157 0.114 0.080 0.034 0.043 0.087 0.024 0.012 95% C.L. 0.118 0.157 0.179 0.197 0.211 0.223 0.232 0.240 0.249 0.256 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.444 0.417 0.125 0.095 0.074 0.089 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00440819 3.21787357 2 736012 1 0.60069042 0.01607659 0.00000000 3.35002208 3 736021 1 0.91246897 0.00477521 0.00000000 2.89130902 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00126156 3.45979428 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00300190 3.42161632 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00083038 3.43062878 7 736041 1 0.72884619 0.01002442 0.00000000 3.24350834 8 736042 1 1.36410260 0.00269736 0.00000000 2.72184157 9 736051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00421914 3.83912134 10 736052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00262453 3.85641026 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129811 3.44662094 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047047 3.83710670 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00249933 3.10570478 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087290 3.17606521 15 736081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365553 3.54123187 16 736082 1 0.73891753 0.01253687 0.00000000 3.08077860 17 736091 1 0.96578598 0.00518556 0.00000000 3.06067443 18 736092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006650 2.99751139 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080706 3.70837331 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081578 3.91680193 21 736111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216356 3.85007143 22 736112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00200394 3.78980541 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.065 1.251 5.522 0.040 0.644 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.061 -0.085 3.109 0.042 0.614 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.077 0.622 5.337 0.042 0.728 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.075 0.612 3.785 0.049 0.587 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.088 0.721 3.498 0.053 0.685 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.095 0.615 3.707 0.051 0.726 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.098 0.802 3.654 0.046 0.785 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.108 0.985 3.392 0.046 0.828 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.093 0.886 3.949 0.052 0.682 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.098 1.225 5.570 0.049 0.763 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.057 -0.183 2.845 0.037 0.639 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.072 0.364 3.100 0.041 0.706 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.065 0.666 3.610 0.048 0.553 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.067 0.491 4.377 0.048 0.497 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.085 1.357 4.902 0.048 0.759 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.077 0.721 3.642 0.042 0.756 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.114 0.214 3.631 0.051 0.796 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.064 0.707 5.020 0.048 0.484 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.073 -0.234 3.640 0.052 0.545 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.060 -0.213 2.574 0.048 0.464 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.071 1.059 6.728 0.059 0.354 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.080 0.154 3.509 0.052 0.634 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.079 0.579 4.050 0.048 0.647 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.016 0.476 1.037 0.005 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.076 0.644 3.648 0.048 0.663 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.028 0.673 1.404 0.009 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.057 -0.234 2.574 0.037 0.354 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.065 0.214 3.498 0.042 0.553 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.093 0.886 4.902 0.051 0.756 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.114 1.357 6.728 0.059 0.828 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.055 1.096 5.906 0.040 0.510 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.054 -0.142 3.157 0.042 0.522 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.999 0.065 0.701 5.660 0.042 0.635 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.068 0.621 4.111 0.049 0.504 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.086 0.783 3.741 0.053 0.673 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.089 0.913 4.416 0.051 0.691 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.085 0.896 4.229 0.046 0.725 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.091 0.779 3.350 0.046 0.766 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.081 0.907 4.310 0.052 0.599 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.079 1.292 6.950 0.049 0.646 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.050 -0.245 3.137 0.037 0.550 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.059 0.564 3.295 0.041 0.584 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.051 0.463 3.078 0.048 0.292 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.057 0.544 4.541 0.048 0.285 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.076 0.995 4.449 0.048 0.701 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.073 0.818 3.851 0.042 0.723 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.097 -0.043 4.484 0.051 0.732 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.059 1.041 6.434 0.048 0.400 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.061 -0.275 3.719 0.052 0.367 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.056 -0.015 2.415 0.048 0.407 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.069 1.131 7.401 0.059 0.316 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.071 0.471 3.724 0.052 0.544 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.070 0.604 4.380 0.048 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.014 0.469 1.318 0.005 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.069 0.740 4.170 0.048 0.567 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.023 0.450 1.191 0.009 0.284 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.050 -0.275 2.415 0.037 0.285 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.057 0.463 3.350 0.042 0.407 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.081 0.913 4.541 0.051 0.691 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.097 1.292 7.401 0.059 0.766 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.175 0.162 0.011 0.281 3.594 -0.216 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.216 SERIES 736051 AND 736062 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.316 0.475 0.281 0.196 0.127 0.155 0.222 0.171 0.204 SDEV 0.151 0.208 0.273 0.271 0.264 0.250 0.222 0.243 0.223 SERR 0.061 0.045 0.060 0.026 0.020 0.018 0.015 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.752 0.892 0.851 0.820 0.745 0.797 0.863 0.816 0.841 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.994 0.037 0.355 3.306 0.031 0.420 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.356 0.222 -0.160 90 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.73 1.00 1.08 1.82 66.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.419 0.312 0.254 0.243 0.235 0.213 0.170 0.172 0.147 0.092 PACF 0.419 0.166 0.094 0.097 0.083 0.053 0.009 0.042 0.010 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.118 0.137 0.146 0.152 0.158 0.163 0.166 0.169 0.171 0.173 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.224 0.315 0.115 0.053 0.069 0.090 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.393 0.317 0.236 0.214 0.222 0.212 0.166 0.101 0.139 0.094 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.393 2 0.317 0.192 3 0.303 0.169 0.073 4 0.298 0.156 0.051 0.074 5 0.291 0.151 0.036 0.046 0.095 6 0.284 0.148 0.034 0.035 0.075 0.069 7 0.284 0.148 0.033 0.035 0.073 0.067 0.008 8 0.284 0.150 0.036 0.037 0.075 0.073 0.021 -0.044 9 0.287 0.149 0.032 0.032 0.073 0.071 0.012 -0.060 0.059 10 0.288 0.148 0.032 0.033 0.074 0.071 0.012 -0.058 0.063 -0.014 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1283.45 1237.17 1228.35 1228.80 1229.21 1228.62 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1229.25 1231.22 1232.68 1233.67 1235.61 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.317 0.192 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.317 0.293 0.154 0.105 0.063 0.040 0.025 0.016 0.010 0.0061 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.267 0.491 0.043 2 736012 2 0.316 0.403 0.232 3 736021 2 0.447 0.527 0.183 4 736022 2 0.304 0.381 0.248 5 736031 2 0.462 0.666 0.014 6 736032 2 0.505 0.797 -0.148 7 736041 2 0.562 0.534 0.265 8 736042 2 0.619 0.558 0.272 9 736051 2 0.418 0.458 0.243 10 736052 2 0.476 0.477 0.264 11 736061 2 0.351 0.415 0.251 12 736062 2 0.396 0.465 0.211 13 736071 2 0.105 0.253 0.142 14 736072 2 0.135 0.243 0.204 15 736081 2 0.525 0.534 0.241 16 736082 2 0.536 0.677 0.072 17 736091 2 0.541 0.721 0.020 18 736092 2 0.193 0.347 0.153 19 736101 2 0.186 0.310 0.197 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.183 0.364 0.114 21 736111 2 0.128 0.264 0.170 22 736112 2 0.366 0.374 0.313 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.365 0.466 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.159 0.153 0.111 MEDIAN 2 0.381 0.462 0.200 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.312 0.170 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.105 0.243 -0.148 LOWER HINGE 2 0.193 0.364 0.114 UPPER HINGE 2 0.505 0.534 0.248 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.619 0.797 0.313 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.047 0.736 5.403 0.049 -0.001 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.045 -0.155 3.612 0.050 -0.013 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.049 0.519 4.989 0.053 -0.034 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.057 0.595 4.815 0.058 -0.015 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.064 0.407 4.159 0.071 0.003 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.063 0.524 3.734 0.069 -0.025 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.056 0.265 4.379 0.060 -0.010 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.056 0.417 3.936 0.060 -0.009 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.062 0.791 5.383 0.065 -0.042 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.058 0.670 6.299 0.061 -0.047 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.041 -0.104 3.345 0.044 -0.007 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.047 0.494 4.055 0.052 -0.040 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.048 0.455 2.922 0.055 0.000 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.053 0.780 5.165 0.054 -0.020 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.052 0.138 2.941 0.061 -0.008 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.049 0.571 3.454 0.056 -0.005 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.065 -0.076 3.738 0.069 0.001 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.053 1.173 7.893 0.057 -0.016 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.055 -0.112 3.610 0.059 -0.031 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.051 -0.111 2.917 0.057 -0.010 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.065 0.981 8.611 0.067 -0.007 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.056 0.439 3.837 0.061 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.054 0.427 4.509 0.059 -0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.007 0.372 1.507 0.007 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.054 0.475 3.995 0.059 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.010 0.531 1.555 0.008 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.041 -0.155 2.917 0.044 -0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.049 0.138 3.610 0.054 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.058 0.670 5.165 0.061 -0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.065 1.173 8.611 0.071 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.249 0.128 0.008 0.622 3.287 -0.022 0.663 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 736042 AND 736072 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.663 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.312 0.410 0.344 0.283 0.233 0.227 0.242 0.218 0.280 SDEV 0.182 0.137 0.185 0.171 0.169 0.168 0.174 0.212 0.164 SERR 0.074 0.030 0.040 0.017 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.748 0.864 0.884 0.881 0.859 0.862 0.875 0.857 0.889 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.031 -0.032 3.049 0.036 -0.126 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.101 0.055 -0.013 110 178 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.75 1.00 1.12 1.87 25.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.126 -0.138 -0.003 -0.002 0.041 0.032 0.045 0.034 0.004 -0.007 PACF -0.126 -0.156 -0.045 -0.032 0.030 0.040 0.069 0.068 0.041 0.018 95% C.L. 0.118 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 -0.146 -0.157 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.010 -0.043 -0.013 0.056 0.056 0.067 0.050 0.015 0.003 PACF -0.007 -0.010 -0.043 -0.014 0.055 0.055 0.069 0.058 0.025 0.009 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.007 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.033 0.327 3.417 0.028 0.382 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.381 0.308 0.162 0.145 0.164 0.163 0.163 0.140 0.107 0.091 PACF 0.381 0.190 -0.007 0.047 0.095 0.062 0.051 0.028 0.002 0.007 95% C.L. 0.118 0.134 0.143 0.146 0.148 0.150 0.153 0.155 0.157 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.177 0.309 0.191 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES