RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 45 IN 2 GAPS / 1777 1816 / 1903 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 736041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 2 GAPS / 1708 1713 / 1727 1737 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 736051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 17 IN 3 GAPS / 1906 1911 / 1943 1947 / 1978 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 736052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 4 GAPS / 1792 1796 / 1799 1803 / 1945 1949 / 1962 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 736071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1907 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 736081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1892 1896 / 1928 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 736082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 736091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1833 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 736102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 736111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1831 1835 / 1870 1875 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 736112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1837 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.154 0.132 2.895 13.279 0.307 0.642 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.134 0.058 1.207 4.949 0.244 0.648 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.097 0.042 1.504 7.353 0.226 0.642 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.108 0.064 1.004 4.757 0.249 0.771 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.186 0.190 3.701 20.487 0.299 0.596 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.166 0.176 3.270 13.774 0.315 0.791 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.088 0.060 2.556 15.416 0.268 0.724 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.097 0.062 2.316 14.423 0.261 0.723 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.074 0.070 3.181 18.132 0.288 0.809 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.079 0.047 1.415 8.186 0.290 0.735 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.112 0.034 1.505 5.829 0.163 0.687 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.094 0.024 0.556 3.539 0.206 0.481 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.124 0.049 1.309 5.431 0.226 0.653 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.157 0.079 3.582 20.146 0.280 0.459 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.124 0.096 2.602 9.065 0.194 0.881 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.112 0.085 4.193 21.859 0.211 0.832 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.074 0.038 0.478 4.103 0.231 0.794 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.088 0.041 3.433 17.145 0.170 0.768 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.099 0.040 3.027 14.075 0.183 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.099 0.033 2.017 8.242 0.197 0.627 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.084 0.053 4.966 36.234 0.227 0.754 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.093 0.054 2.623 11.305 0.229 0.688 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 191 0.111 0.069 2.424 12.624 0.239 0.699 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.031 0.044 1.204 7.813 0.045 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 188 0.099 0.056 2.579 12.292 0.230 0.705 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 41 0.035 0.039 1.856 11.316 0.074 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 106 0.074 0.024 0.478 3.539 0.163 0.459 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.088 0.041 1.415 5.829 0.206 0.642 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 206 0.124 0.079 3.270 17.145 0.280 0.771 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.186 0.190 4.966 36.234 0.315 0.881 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.150 0.256 0.017 0.115 2.684 -0.448 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.448 SERIES 736052 AND 736112 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.053 0.363 0.276 0.107 0.080 0.121 0.164 0.151 0.100 SDEV 0.341 0.217 0.291 0.323 0.199 0.240 0.270 0.227 0.314 SERR 0.139 0.047 0.064 0.031 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.016 0.023 EPS 0.267 0.839 0.847 0.691 0.635 0.746 0.812 0.793 0.695 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.098 0.026 0.557 5.414 0.137 0.714 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.740 0.745 -0.025 144 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.99 3.70 1.00 1.23 4.93 168.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.712 0.648 0.555 0.493 0.440 0.403 0.392 0.321 0.327 0.288 PACF 0.712 0.285 0.050 0.033 0.027 0.035 0.077 -0.076 0.070 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.118 0.167 0.199 0.220 0.234 0.246 0.255 0.263 0.268 0.274 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.563 0.498 0.306 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001372 0.15337011 2 736012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023831 0.16258155 3 736021 1 0.10307875 0.00557808 0.00000000 0.04233442 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054228 0.17393282 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050821 0.23160505 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050692 0.21204282 7 736041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024083 0.04955011 8 736042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006129 0.10512818 9 736051 1 0.22704154 0.02099570 0.00000000 0.03185103 10 736052 1 0.16997339 0.04451449 0.00000000 0.06136735 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017356 0.09765484 12 736062 1 0.09734640 0.22145782 0.00000000 0.09156791 13 736071 1 0.16179162 0.00656129 0.00000000 0.01858492 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024753 0.17688198 15 736081 1 0.22414254 0.01805583 0.00000000 0.03100820 16 736082 1 0.17783983 0.03014680 0.00000000 0.05932092 17 736091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027029 0.04519939 18 736092 1 0.23629835 0.09953446 0.00000000 0.07652175 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013834 0.08623431 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 1 0.12761912 0.18944503 0.00000000 0.09734746 21 736111 1 0.31931910 0.12661077 0.00000000 0.07133628 22 736112 1 0.24357809 0.11981446 0.00000000 0.08255784 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.852 2.875 13.136 0.305 0.638 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.999 0.396 1.372 6.625 0.230 0.626 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.325 1.094 6.417 0.216 0.486 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.988 0.402 0.995 6.444 0.241 0.616 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.994 1.045 4.126 24.404 0.297 0.579 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.993 0.970 3.247 14.058 0.314 0.775 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.982 0.637 2.473 13.719 0.261 0.715 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.637 2.328 14.427 0.263 0.715 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.502 1.443 6.049 0.280 0.663 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.515 0.206 2.301 0.284 0.754 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.001 0.280 0.834 3.789 0.163 0.654 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.234 0.160 2.521 0.205 0.382 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.318 1.440 6.166 0.221 0.520 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.499 3.674 20.763 0.278 0.435 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.011 0.496 1.736 5.666 0.195 0.806 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.003 0.484 2.778 12.782 0.216 0.734 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.993 0.526 1.428 6.456 0.236 0.739 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.224 0.571 3.216 0.167 0.490 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.001 0.385 2.530 10.733 0.182 0.652 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.307 2.183 10.021 0.197 0.603 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.319 0.703 4.224 0.224 0.538 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.484 3.003 13.917 0.230 0.662 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.998 0.493 1.873 9.447 0.237 0.626 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.006 0.223 1.123 5.902 0.044 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.484 1.589 6.541 0.230 0.645 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.001 0.207 1.784 8.053 0.073 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.982 0.224 0.160 2.301 0.163 0.382 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.999 0.319 0.995 5.666 0.205 0.538 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.526 2.778 13.719 0.278 0.715 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.011 1.045 4.126 24.404 0.314 0.806 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.992 0.546 2.956 17.986 0.307 0.518 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.992 0.342 0.932 5.283 0.230 0.545 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.998 0.309 0.955 6.144 0.217 0.455 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.986 0.333 1.008 7.640 0.242 0.494 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.991 0.774 3.405 18.932 0.301 0.528 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.013 0.758 3.097 15.821 0.316 0.595 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.991 0.438 1.919 10.970 0.262 0.553 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.972 0.535 2.390 15.907 0.264 0.636 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.988 0.441 1.600 7.656 0.281 0.566 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.985 0.400 0.444 2.989 0.286 0.542 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.995 0.199 0.288 2.621 0.163 0.431 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.219 0.158 2.486 0.205 0.301 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.997 0.294 1.235 5.985 0.221 0.468 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.990 0.416 3.142 17.364 0.279 0.342 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.984 0.320 1.896 8.729 0.194 0.632 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.995 0.409 2.863 14.466 0.215 0.672 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.976 0.449 1.619 7.335 0.236 0.652 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.188 0.119 3.817 0.168 0.275 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.996 0.276 1.264 5.103 0.184 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.997 0.274 1.741 7.700 0.197 0.510 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.995 0.282 0.587 4.337 0.225 0.440 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.996 0.294 0.730 4.189 0.231 0.403 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.992 0.386 1.561 8.794 0.237 0.503 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.008 0.157 1.039 5.442 0.044 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.993 0.338 1.432 7.488 0.231 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.009 0.160 1.660 10.129 0.073 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.972 0.188 0.119 2.486 0.163 0.275 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.988 0.282 0.730 4.337 0.205 0.440 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 0.997 0.441 2.390 14.466 0.279 0.566 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.013 0.774 3.405 18.932 0.316 0.672 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.128 0.140 0.009 0.419 3.438 -0.177 0.657 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.177 SERIES 736091 AND 736111 197 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.657 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.179 0.353 0.266 0.129 0.085 0.092 0.118 0.109 0.130 SDEV 0.216 0.255 0.293 0.225 0.174 0.216 0.219 0.239 0.197 SERR 0.088 0.056 0.064 0.022 0.013 0.016 0.014 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.588 0.833 0.841 0.735 0.651 0.684 0.747 0.726 0.754 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.972 0.184 0.185 3.405 0.135 0.565 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.154 0.126 124 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 1.99 1.00 1.17 3.16 102.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.563 0.438 0.361 0.336 0.208 0.161 0.122 0.042 0.000 -0.043 PACF 0.563 0.177 0.088 0.100 -0.091 -0.007 -0.005 -0.086 -0.022 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.118 0.151 0.167 0.178 0.186 0.190 0.192 0.193 0.193 0.193 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.354 0.462 0.190 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.533 0.412 0.321 0.236 0.216 0.169 0.149 0.101 0.042 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.533 2 0.438 0.178 3 0.426 0.150 0.066 4 0.426 0.149 0.064 0.003 5 0.426 0.146 0.056 -0.021 0.058 6 0.426 0.146 0.055 -0.022 0.056 0.004 7 0.426 0.144 0.056 -0.023 0.053 -0.006 0.022 8 0.426 0.144 0.057 -0.024 0.055 -0.001 0.034 -0.030 9 0.425 0.146 0.057 -0.021 0.053 0.002 0.042 -0.007 -0.054 10 0.420 0.146 0.061 -0.021 0.058 0.000 0.047 0.006 -0.018 -0.085 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2209.00 2114.71 2107.39 2108.15 2110.14 2111.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2113.17 2115.04 2116.78 2117.93 2117.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.438 0.178 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 144.30 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.438 0.370 0.240 0.171 0.118 0.082 0.057 0.040 0.028 0.0191 0.013 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.301 0.571 -0.093 2 736012 2 0.332 0.444 0.193 3 736021 2 0.240 0.379 0.168 4 736022 2 0.269 0.454 0.093 5 736031 2 0.340 0.398 0.261 6 736032 2 0.463 0.741 -0.095 7 736041 2 0.332 0.464 0.166 8 736042 2 0.442 0.509 0.200 9 736051 2 0.416 0.378 0.342 10 736052 2 0.402 0.343 0.370 11 736061 2 0.199 0.383 0.116 12 736062 2 0.104 0.276 0.085 13 736071 2 0.293 0.349 0.255 14 736072 2 0.133 0.371 -0.044 15 736081 2 0.429 0.503 0.207 16 736082 2 0.474 0.761 -0.125 17 736091 2 0.486 0.603 0.091 18 736092 2 0.110 0.224 0.190 19 736101 2 0.282 0.427 0.165 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.306 0.400 0.218 21 736111 2 0.225 0.373 0.156 22 736112 2 0.202 0.341 0.171 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.308 0.441 0.140 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.117 0.133 0.132 MEDIAN 2 0.304 0.399 0.167 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.192 0.132 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.104 0.224 -0.125 LOWER HINGE 2 0.225 0.371 0.091 UPPER HINGE 2 0.416 0.503 0.207 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.486 0.761 0.370 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.001 0.461 2.347 12.821 0.419 0.021 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.280 0.449 4.163 0.297 -0.012 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.271 1.460 9.795 0.265 -0.020 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.286 1.321 9.581 0.292 -0.018 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.008 0.608 3.414 19.303 0.371 0.150 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.005 0.511 2.540 13.459 0.462 -0.064 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.004 0.344 1.441 9.778 0.342 0.026 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.404 3.523 26.069 0.331 -0.031 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.338 1.798 12.735 0.337 -0.031 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.312 0.930 4.480 0.330 -0.048 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.178 0.434 3.411 0.193 -0.004 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.208 0.242 2.727 0.233 -0.007 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.251 0.759 4.662 0.264 0.040 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.389 3.539 21.583 0.330 0.012 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.003 0.228 -0.452 6.367 0.251 0.017 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.298 1.787 10.451 0.312 -0.020 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.002 0.324 2.840 22.258 0.292 -0.007 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.177 0.197 3.697 0.191 -0.007 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.233 1.234 5.716 0.230 -0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.230 1.431 6.548 0.241 -0.024 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.250 0.734 4.769 0.278 -0.020 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.264 0.780 4.780 0.276 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.001 0.311 1.489 9.962 0.297 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.002 0.108 1.136 6.846 0.067 0.042 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.283 1.376 8.065 0.292 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.001 0.111 1.613 8.159 0.080 0.032 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.177 -0.452 2.727 0.191 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.233 0.734 4.662 0.251 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.001 0.344 2.347 12.821 0.331 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.008 0.608 3.539 26.069 0.462 0.150 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.124 0.103 0.007 0.460 3.507 -0.107 0.504 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.107 SERIES 736041 AND 736092 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.504 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.128 0.321 0.298 0.143 0.108 0.113 0.161 0.115 0.075 SDEV 0.174 0.146 0.191 0.194 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.143 0.152 SERR 0.071 0.032 0.042 0.019 0.012 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.490 0.812 0.861 0.757 0.709 0.730 0.808 0.737 0.624 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.980 0.142 -0.321 4.873 0.160 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.230 0.142 0.068 143 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.75 2.06 1.00 1.23 3.30 686.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.059 0.001 0.188 0.016 0.015 0.054 0.024 0.003 -0.015 PACF 0.004 -0.059 0.001 0.185 0.016 0.037 0.057 -0.009 0.003 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.011 0.001 0.186 0.018 0.027 0.056 0.023 0.002 -0.015 PACF 0.000 0.011 0.001 0.186 0.019 0.024 0.057 -0.012 -0.006 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.978 0.178 0.088 3.189 0.132 0.572 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.570 0.473 0.369 0.373 0.251 0.197 0.159 0.094 0.037 -0.007 PACF 0.570 0.219 0.053 0.141 -0.074 -0.025 0.013 -0.072 -0.044 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.118 0.151 0.171 0.181 0.192 0.196 0.199 0.201 0.201 0.201 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.372 0.442 0.236 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES