RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok DENSITY_MINIMUM PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 50 IN 3 GAPS / 1785 1824 / 1853 1857 / 1940 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1745 1749 / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 736081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 736102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1815 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.290 0.026 0.960 3.774 0.043 0.819 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.287 0.025 0.126 2.750 0.052 0.703 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.285 0.033 1.521 6.555 0.059 0.754 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.304 0.029 1.154 5.623 0.059 0.614 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.308 0.032 0.498 3.080 0.062 0.704 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.294 0.028 0.282 2.888 0.057 0.689 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.290 0.036 0.839 4.794 0.063 0.779 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.317 0.046 1.165 5.025 0.061 0.840 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.377 0.059 1.597 5.855 0.071 0.763 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.367 0.049 1.367 5.026 0.064 0.753 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.297 0.022 -0.286 2.992 0.048 0.628 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.324 0.027 0.011 2.984 0.052 0.681 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.276 0.025 0.409 3.405 0.049 0.679 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.267 0.019 -0.414 6.241 0.060 0.328 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.262 0.025 1.023 5.809 0.073 0.538 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.283 0.024 0.815 4.365 0.053 0.629 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.300 0.039 1.249 5.300 0.068 0.743 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.261 0.021 0.490 3.901 0.059 0.532 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.314 0.029 -0.175 3.006 0.068 0.494 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.324 0.023 0.163 2.664 0.057 0.399 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.356 0.034 1.115 6.024 0.071 0.468 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.345 0.035 0.816 4.591 0.065 0.639 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 195 0.306 0.031 0.669 4.393 0.060 0.644 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.032 0.010 0.595 1.298 0.008 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.298 0.028 0.815 4.478 0.060 0.680 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.038 0.011 0.992 2.618 0.012 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 112 0.261 0.019 -0.414 2.664 0.043 0.328 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.285 0.025 0.163 3.006 0.053 0.538 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 208 0.324 0.035 1.154 5.623 0.065 0.753 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 0.377 0.059 1.597 6.555 0.073 0.840 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.129 0.241 0.016 0.055 2.354 -0.403 0.677 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.403 SERIES 736052 AND 736062 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.677 SERIES 736012 AND 736021 242 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.251 0.513 0.419 0.107 0.076 0.138 0.177 0.221 0.220 SDEV 0.180 0.198 0.210 0.371 0.297 0.254 0.229 0.215 0.290 SERR 0.074 0.043 0.046 0.036 0.023 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.021 EPS 0.686 0.906 0.913 0.692 0.624 0.774 0.826 0.859 0.853 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.309 0.018 0.792 4.719 0.039 0.600 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.107 0.090 0.010 87 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.10 1.00 1.17 2.28 10.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.598 0.510 0.468 0.446 0.431 0.374 0.343 0.334 0.281 0.220 PACF 0.598 0.237 0.154 0.122 0.100 0.004 0.016 0.042 -0.037 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.118 0.154 0.176 0.193 0.207 0.219 0.227 0.234 0.241 0.245 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.432 0.380 0.131 0.097 0.082 0.115 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036422 0.26300055 2 736012 1 0.05339892 0.01410633 0.00000000 0.27733150 3 736021 1 0.07963703 0.00700099 0.00000000 0.25247553 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007925 0.29603964 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023139 0.28749859 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013562 0.28161514 7 736041 1 0.03623025 0.00902540 0.00000000 0.27722627 8 736042 1 0.08613224 0.00517126 0.00000000 0.27143952 9 736051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046939 0.31387967 10 736052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027012 0.33042878 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007643 0.29020178 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012283 0.33587441 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022623 0.25867042 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002183 0.26549923 15 736081 1 0.01749794 0.03218946 0.00000000 0.25675926 16 736082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024293 0.29730165 17 736091 1 0.05413359 0.00809278 0.00000000 0.27416086 18 736092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010382 0.25076243 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002994 0.31663424 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006137 0.33060476 21 736111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014387 0.34154356 22 736112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016617 0.32842857 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.071 0.363 3.503 0.043 0.703 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.079 -0.106 3.137 0.051 0.670 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.095 0.853 5.300 0.058 0.667 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.089 0.750 4.887 0.060 0.571 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.096 0.822 3.890 0.062 0.658 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.091 0.308 3.086 0.057 0.652 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.121 0.909 4.855 0.063 0.759 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.132 1.367 5.575 0.062 0.796 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.117 1.075 4.716 0.071 0.614 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.120 1.571 6.934 0.064 0.707 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.072 -0.304 3.075 0.048 0.613 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.082 0.257 2.998 0.052 0.656 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.081 0.317 3.571 0.049 0.616 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.073 -0.375 6.111 0.060 0.324 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.092 0.794 4.987 0.073 0.518 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.081 0.577 3.748 0.053 0.566 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.120 0.633 4.237 0.067 0.698 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.078 0.329 3.568 0.059 0.485 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.092 -0.201 3.086 0.068 0.486 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.070 0.114 2.685 0.057 0.395 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.091 1.064 5.604 0.071 0.438 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.097 0.511 4.234 0.065 0.609 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.093 0.529 4.263 0.060 0.600 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.018 0.521 1.157 0.008 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.091 0.544 4.062 0.060 0.615 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.018 0.596 1.850 0.012 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.070 -0.375 2.685 0.043 0.324 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.079 0.257 3.137 0.053 0.518 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.097 0.853 4.987 0.065 0.670 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.132 1.571 6.934 0.073 0.796 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.059 0.563 3.675 0.043 0.578 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.069 -0.098 3.333 0.051 0.564 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.999 0.082 0.839 5.494 0.058 0.557 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.080 0.711 5.012 0.060 0.475 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.090 0.713 3.406 0.062 0.605 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.999 0.079 0.851 4.559 0.057 0.549 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.999 0.103 1.123 5.393 0.063 0.669 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.113 1.189 5.773 0.062 0.733 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.103 0.987 4.734 0.071 0.530 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.100 1.642 8.254 0.064 0.588 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.065 -0.358 3.362 0.048 0.529 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.073 0.386 3.182 0.052 0.562 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.063 0.157 3.107 0.049 0.396 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.069 -0.557 6.338 0.060 0.237 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.086 0.721 4.701 0.073 0.448 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.074 0.721 4.705 0.053 0.491 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.999 0.106 0.521 4.817 0.067 0.624 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.069 0.643 5.138 0.059 0.336 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.999 0.077 -0.137 3.277 0.068 0.283 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.067 0.245 2.794 0.057 0.346 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.086 1.201 7.193 0.071 0.367 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.086 0.883 5.283 0.065 0.505 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.082 0.588 4.706 0.060 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.015 0.540 1.403 0.008 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.079 0.712 4.720 0.060 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.021 0.638 2.031 0.012 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.059 -0.557 2.794 0.043 0.237 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.999 0.069 0.245 3.362 0.053 0.396 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.090 0.883 5.393 0.065 0.578 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.113 1.642 8.254 0.073 0.733 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.177 0.153 0.010 0.130 3.361 -0.239 0.675 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.239 SERIES 736051 AND 736072 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.675 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.371 0.550 0.365 0.168 0.095 0.148 0.188 0.186 0.244 SDEV 0.114 0.163 0.221 0.294 0.250 0.244 0.215 0.225 0.214 SERR 0.047 0.036 0.048 0.029 0.019 0.018 0.014 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.794 0.918 0.893 0.791 0.677 0.788 0.836 0.831 0.869 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.993 0.045 0.514 3.713 0.038 0.429 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.435 0.276 -0.206 81 207 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.56 1.00 1.12 1.68 142.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.428 0.356 0.356 0.321 0.272 0.231 0.184 0.148 0.171 0.062 PACF 0.428 0.212 0.186 0.109 0.047 0.014 -0.019 -0.023 0.049 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.118 0.138 0.150 0.161 0.170 0.176 0.180 0.183 0.184 0.187 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.260 0.275 0.133 0.157 0.110 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.395 0.322 0.337 0.244 0.228 0.255 0.160 0.088 0.199 0.091 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.395 2 0.317 0.196 3 0.279 0.135 0.194 4 0.271 0.130 0.183 0.039 5 0.269 0.120 0.176 0.024 0.056 6 0.264 0.117 0.159 0.012 0.029 0.098 7 0.267 0.118 0.159 0.017 0.033 0.106 -0.033 8 0.265 0.126 0.162 0.018 0.045 0.115 -0.013 -0.075 9 0.274 0.128 0.148 0.013 0.043 0.096 -0.028 -0.108 0.122 10 0.280 0.122 0.146 0.018 0.045 0.096 -0.021 -0.101 0.136 -0.051 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1402.49 1355.75 1346.41 1337.35 1338.92 1340.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1339.26 1340.95 1341.32 1338.97 1340.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.279 0.135 0.194 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 21.89 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 128.02 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.279 0.213 0.291 0.164 0.126 0.114 0.081 0.062 0.050 0.0381 0.030 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0030 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 3 0.359 0.533 -0.024 0.163 2 736012 3 0.381 0.414 0.119 0.188 3 736021 3 0.355 0.443 0.105 0.137 4 736022 3 0.295 0.324 0.278 0.042 5 736031 3 0.382 0.590 0.106 -0.112 6 736032 3 0.310 0.546 0.040 -0.051 7 736041 3 0.507 0.479 0.271 0.018 8 736042 3 0.573 0.535 0.219 0.058 9 736051 3 0.393 0.309 0.251 0.179 10 736052 3 0.433 0.357 0.261 0.146 11 736061 3 0.337 0.389 0.115 0.193 12 736062 3 0.375 0.398 0.146 0.176 13 736071 3 0.198 0.323 0.147 0.079 14 736072 3 0.169 0.139 0.211 0.178 15 736081 3 0.324 0.280 0.143 0.274 16 736082 3 0.290 0.408 0.078 0.145 17 736091 3 0.428 0.500 0.122 0.102 18 736092 3 0.194 0.246 0.098 0.235 19 736101 3 0.159 0.194 0.193 0.154 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 3 0.150 0.292 0.091 0.104 21 736111 3 0.158 0.310 0.098 0.093 22 736112 3 0.299 0.379 0.225 0.031 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.321 0.381 0.150 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 0.118 0.079 0.091 MEDIAN 3 0.330 0.384 0.133 0.141 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.183 0.169 0.120 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.150 0.139 -0.024 -0.112 LOWER HINGE 3 0.198 0.309 0.098 0.058 UPPER HINGE 3 0.382 0.479 0.219 0.178 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.573 0.590 0.278 0.274 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.047 0.160 3.226 0.053 0.008 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.054 0.088 2.941 0.063 -0.024 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.066 0.836 6.280 0.072 -0.023 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.067 0.814 4.886 0.071 0.000 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.070 0.176 3.598 0.080 0.002 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.065 0.679 4.053 0.070 0.002 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.073 0.513 4.526 0.081 -0.002 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.074 0.398 5.133 0.080 -0.007 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.081 0.841 6.687 0.085 -0.033 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.075 1.030 6.719 0.077 -0.017 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.053 -0.296 3.467 0.058 0.008 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.058 0.221 3.185 0.064 -0.015 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.057 -0.017 3.362 0.058 -0.009 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.064 -0.501 5.646 0.066 -0.039 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.072 0.185 3.281 0.080 0.042 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.063 0.443 5.115 0.065 0.011 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.080 -0.258 6.403 0.086 -0.013 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.062 0.639 6.105 0.067 0.015 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.070 0.071 3.079 0.075 -0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.062 0.120 3.302 0.067 0.008 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.079 1.235 8.658 0.081 0.001 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.072 0.871 5.331 0.078 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.067 0.375 4.772 0.072 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.009 0.457 1.570 0.009 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.067 0.309 4.706 0.071 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.012 0.726 2.803 0.015 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.047 -0.501 2.941 0.053 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.062 0.088 3.302 0.065 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.073 0.814 6.105 0.080 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.081 1.235 8.658 0.086 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.219 0.114 0.007 0.366 4.283 -0.059 0.671 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.059 SERIES 736031 AND 736071 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.671 SERIES 736111 AND 736112 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.355 0.403 0.404 0.256 0.178 0.182 0.197 0.209 0.265 SDEV 0.089 0.122 0.178 0.178 0.155 0.160 0.167 0.176 0.155 SERR 0.036 0.027 0.039 0.017 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.782 0.860 0.908 0.865 0.813 0.826 0.844 0.851 0.881 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.997 0.037 0.037 3.003 0.044 -0.103 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.181 0.096 -0.045 84 204 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.84 1.00 1.05 1.89 11.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.102 -0.083 -0.045 0.054 0.047 0.018 0.000 0.011 0.092 -0.059 PACF -0.102 -0.094 -0.065 0.034 0.049 0.035 0.020 0.021 0.098 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.023 -0.112 -0.094 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.006 0.010 0.043 0.050 0.036 0.019 0.021 0.085 -0.047 PACF 0.003 0.006 0.010 0.043 0.049 0.035 0.018 0.018 0.081 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 0.003 0.006 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.043 0.515 3.615 0.037 0.438 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.437 0.371 0.390 0.297 0.259 0.228 0.171 0.140 0.144 0.049 PACF 0.437 0.223 0.217 0.046 0.033 0.013 -0.022 -0.015 0.028 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.118 0.139 0.152 0.165 0.172 0.178 0.182 0.184 0.185 0.187 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.271 0.289 0.150 0.222 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES