RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 6.787 0.457 -0.078 2.720 0.058 0.423 2 736012 1742 1983 242 6.509 0.522 -0.158 3.088 0.067 0.399 3 736021 1730 1983 254 6.286 0.677 -0.200 2.741 0.074 0.562 4 736022 1726 1976 251 6.398 0.732 -0.637 2.830 0.067 0.698 5 736031 1805 1983 179 6.311 0.655 -0.075 2.495 0.087 0.498 6 736032 1804 1983 180 6.858 0.608 -0.219 2.937 0.073 0.458 7 736041 1696 1983 288 6.243 0.700 -0.124 2.714 0.064 0.742 8 736042 1702 1983 282 5.936 0.673 -0.132 2.742 0.066 0.725 9 736051 1714 1983 270 7.083 0.643 0.031 3.363 0.068 0.527 10 736052 1711 1983 273 6.715 0.653 0.191 2.689 0.077 0.521 11 736061 1819 1983 165 6.987 0.671 -0.262 3.481 0.067 0.547 12 736062 1788 1983 196 7.014 0.769 -0.302 2.997 0.063 0.703 13 736071 1787 1935 149 6.621 0.505 -0.664 3.388 0.050 0.646 14 736072 1781 1941 161 6.653 0.593 -0.880 4.748 0.068 0.507 15 736081 1865 1981 117 6.494 0.608 -0.476 2.710 0.061 0.668 16 736082 1870 1983 114 6.616 0.583 -0.040 2.554 0.056 0.687 17 736091 1776 1983 208 6.993 0.781 -0.832 3.789 0.065 0.740 18 736092 1792 1983 192 5.163 0.794 0.522 2.479 0.075 0.805 19 736101 1801 1983 183 7.231 0.529 0.603 3.466 0.056 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 6.962 0.611 -0.354 2.897 0.056 0.678 21 736111 1787 1983 197 6.551 0.692 0.149 2.512 0.066 0.681 22 736112 1788 1983 196 6.708 0.541 -0.057 3.917 0.060 0.543 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 6.596 0.636 -0.181 3.057 0.066 0.603 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.450 0.091 0.375 0.564 0.008 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 6.637 0.648 -0.145 2.864 0.066 0.604 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.564 0.109 0.314 0.678 0.008 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 114 5.163 0.457 -0.880 2.479 0.050 0.399 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 6.398 0.583 -0.354 2.710 0.060 0.507 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 6.962 0.692 -0.040 3.388 0.068 0.698 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 7.231 0.794 0.603 4.748 0.087 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.171 0.234 0.015 -0.178 2.624 -0.480 0.796 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.480 SERIES 736062 AND 736092 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.796 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.319 0.398 0.476 0.271 0.283 0.321 0.263 0.190 0.149 SDEV 0.309 0.211 0.202 0.218 0.196 0.195 0.216 0.219 0.255 SERR 0.126 0.046 0.044 0.021 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.016 0.019 EPS 0.754 0.858 0.930 0.874 0.888 0.910 0.887 0.835 0.783 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 6.584 0.374 -0.563 3.816 0.048 0.423 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.085 -0.067 1.163 99 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.35 1.01 1.15 1.51 33.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.421 0.352 0.319 0.229 0.234 0.140 0.174 0.165 0.085 0.174 PACF 0.421 0.212 0.143 0.018 0.076 -0.045 0.070 0.042 -0.050 0.107 95% C.L. 0.118 0.137 0.149 0.158 0.163 0.168 0.169 0.172 0.174 0.174 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.232 0.302 0.170 0.138 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00612946 6.33017921 2 736012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00130233 6.28502560 3 736021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122574 6.10917711 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00263259 6.04920101 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00315651 6.02708769 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00642433 6.27615309 7 736041 1 1.46837914 0.02344909 0.00000000 6.02856350 8 736042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00205969 5.63676977 9 736051 1 0.88808268 0.00875880 0.00000000 6.74404097 10 736052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292610 7.11552811 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00809593 6.31543159 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01007814 6.02148676 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00221752 6.45462561 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00361074 6.36088419 15 736081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00591677 6.84302092 16 736082 1 1.33719993 0.03380945 0.00000000 6.28252411 17 736091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00838788 6.11687994 18 736092 1 3.53138733 0.00496967 0.00000000 2.89268231 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00494717 6.77628136 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053757 6.91076708 21 736111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00349306 6.20479631 22 736112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00214140 6.49754143 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.055 -0.215 2.788 0.058 0.148 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.080 -0.011 2.743 0.064 0.448 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.101 -0.291 3.004 0.071 0.542 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.104 -0.618 2.829 0.066 0.646 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.100 -0.177 2.618 0.086 0.456 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.074 -0.450 3.387 0.073 0.223 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.099 -0.420 2.687 0.064 0.660 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.111 0.096 2.970 0.067 0.716 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.086 0.171 3.774 0.068 0.455 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.091 0.431 3.571 0.077 0.453 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.079 -0.381 3.546 0.066 0.360 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.073 -0.108 3.228 0.062 0.379 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.075 -0.547 3.167 0.050 0.633 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.086 -0.635 4.102 0.068 0.471 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.090 -0.129 3.107 0.061 0.627 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.073 -0.029 2.799 0.056 0.523 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.088 -0.587 3.924 0.065 0.554 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.094 0.384 3.122 0.075 0.508 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.063 0.302 2.790 0.056 0.328 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.088 -0.405 2.917 0.056 0.673 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.101 0.101 2.667 0.065 0.653 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.078 -0.228 3.526 0.060 0.520 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.086 -0.170 3.148 0.065 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.014 0.323 0.432 0.008 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.087 -0.196 3.055 0.065 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.024 0.515 0.736 0.008 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.055 -0.635 2.618 0.050 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.075 -0.420 2.790 0.060 0.448 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.099 0.096 3.526 0.068 0.633 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.111 0.431 4.102 0.086 0.716 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.054 -0.232 2.861 0.058 0.119 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.071 0.009 3.200 0.064 0.300 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.089 0.167 3.188 0.071 0.443 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.086 -0.181 3.027 0.066 0.489 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.092 -0.222 2.697 0.086 0.363 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.069 -0.532 3.426 0.073 0.096 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.090 -0.149 2.885 0.064 0.575 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.093 0.085 2.958 0.067 0.590 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.081 0.177 3.871 0.068 0.396 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.087 0.343 3.533 0.077 0.408 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.068 -0.477 4.184 0.066 0.144 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.063 -0.077 3.479 0.062 0.176 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.061 -0.553 3.643 0.050 0.455 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.068 -0.616 4.161 0.068 0.127 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.999 0.070 -0.505 3.406 0.060 0.377 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.067 -0.042 2.624 0.055 0.425 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.083 -0.488 4.172 0.065 0.499 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.082 0.331 3.321 0.075 0.353 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.058 0.257 2.722 0.056 0.221 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.069 -0.235 3.172 0.056 0.465 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.075 -0.164 3.271 0.065 0.369 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.073 0.028 3.832 0.060 0.438 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.075 -0.140 3.347 0.065 0.356 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.012 0.298 0.479 0.008 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.072 -0.156 3.296 0.065 0.386 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.018 0.562 0.686 0.008 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.999 0.054 -0.616 2.624 0.050 0.096 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.068 -0.477 2.958 0.060 0.221 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.086 0.085 3.643 0.068 0.455 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.093 0.343 4.184 0.086 0.590 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.251 0.133 0.009 0.167 3.021 -0.067 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 736051 AND 736102 190 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.339 0.417 0.488 0.307 0.320 0.338 0.296 0.216 0.201 SDEV 0.250 0.203 0.179 0.192 0.157 0.167 0.166 0.198 0.202 SERR 0.102 0.044 0.039 0.019 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.771 0.867 0.933 0.892 0.904 0.916 0.902 0.856 0.838 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.049 -0.381 3.601 0.048 0.215 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.027 0.013 0.051 68 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.85 1.01 1.08 1.93 107.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.215 0.086 0.055 0.001 0.030 -0.077 0.001 -0.027 -0.103 0.012 PACF 0.215 0.041 0.029 -0.020 0.031 -0.094 0.035 -0.030 -0.091 0.053 95% C.L. 0.118 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 0.217 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.175 0.121 0.023 -0.026 -0.008 -0.063 0.034 0.005 -0.127 0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.175 2 0.159 0.093 3 0.160 0.096 -0.013 4 0.160 0.099 -0.007 -0.041 5 0.160 0.100 -0.007 -0.041 0.002 6 0.160 0.097 -0.008 -0.035 0.012 -0.057 7 0.163 0.097 -0.006 -0.035 0.006 -0.066 0.056 8 0.163 0.097 -0.006 -0.035 0.006 -0.067 0.056 0.003 9 0.163 0.105 -0.015 -0.034 0.001 -0.067 0.070 0.026 -0.144 10 0.171 0.103 -0.019 -0.031 0.001 -0.066 0.071 0.021 -0.152 0.050 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1423.13 1416.13 1415.60 1417.55 1419.08 1421.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1422.13 1423.21 1425.21 1421.18 1422.47 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.159 0.093 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.08 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.159 0.119 0.034 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.017 0.126 -0.044 2 736012 2 0.141 0.243 0.195 3 736021 2 0.254 0.345 0.236 4 736022 2 0.256 0.439 0.111 5 736031 2 0.189 0.276 0.241 6 736032 2 0.043 0.086 0.107 7 736041 2 0.374 0.468 0.198 8 736042 2 0.393 0.439 0.258 9 736051 2 0.163 0.372 0.064 10 736052 2 0.185 0.355 0.135 11 736061 2 0.042 0.129 0.121 12 736062 2 0.043 0.161 0.101 13 736071 2 0.255 0.366 0.206 14 736072 2 0.064 0.099 0.220 15 736081 2 0.161 0.330 0.130 16 736082 2 0.187 0.413 0.041 17 736091 2 0.268 0.463 0.079 18 736092 2 0.194 0.260 0.274 19 736101 2 0.112 0.167 0.255 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.282 0.335 0.284 21 736111 2 0.155 0.324 0.134 22 736112 2 0.220 0.363 0.178 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.182 0.298 0.160 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.122 0.085 MEDIAN 2 0.186 0.333 0.156 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.205 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.017 0.086 -0.044 LOWER HINGE 2 0.112 0.167 0.107 UPPER HINGE 2 0.255 0.372 0.236 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.393 0.468 0.284 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.053 -0.213 2.924 0.061 0.000 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.066 0.033 3.269 0.073 -0.024 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.077 -0.256 3.495 0.084 -0.017 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.074 -0.085 3.660 0.079 0.001 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.083 -0.240 2.748 0.097 -0.023 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.068 -0.514 3.583 0.076 0.016 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.071 0.046 3.201 0.079 -0.021 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.072 -0.239 3.063 0.081 -0.010 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.074 0.471 4.858 0.080 -0.004 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.079 0.033 3.115 0.091 -0.009 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.067 -0.415 4.231 0.071 -0.012 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.062 -0.043 3.639 0.067 -0.005 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.053 -0.107 3.209 0.060 -0.027 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.066 -0.563 4.334 0.071 0.000 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.064 -0.846 3.931 0.069 -0.008 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.060 -0.093 3.000 0.068 0.003 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.072 -0.167 3.608 0.080 0.005 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.073 0.109 3.051 0.083 -0.001 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.055 0.230 2.958 0.060 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.058 -0.128 2.676 0.065 -0.007 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.069 -0.100 3.861 0.078 -0.004 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.064 -0.138 4.431 0.071 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.067 -0.147 3.493 0.075 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.008 0.277 0.586 0.010 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.067 -0.117 3.382 0.074 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.011 0.272 0.810 0.012 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.053 -0.846 2.676 0.060 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.062 -0.240 3.051 0.068 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.073 0.033 3.861 0.080 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.083 0.471 4.858 0.097 0.016 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.312 0.118 0.008 0.098 3.179 0.014 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 736051 AND 736112 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.450 0.547 0.527 0.339 0.378 0.389 0.351 0.270 0.241 SDEV 0.102 0.106 0.160 0.176 0.146 0.143 0.131 0.172 0.180 SERR 0.041 0.023 0.035 0.017 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.842 0.917 0.942 0.905 0.924 0.931 0.922 0.889 0.867 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.999 0.046 -0.557 3.400 0.054 -0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.024 0.009 0.042 83 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.65 1.00 1.06 1.71 61.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.093 -0.129 -0.009 -0.054 0.025 -0.111 0.027 0.028 -0.139 0.061 PACF -0.093 -0.139 -0.037 -0.080 0.004 -0.132 0.001 -0.009 -0.145 0.018 95% C.L. 0.118 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.030 -0.107 -0.141 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.013 -0.043 -0.092 0.009 -0.116 0.002 0.008 -0.132 0.061 PACF -0.005 -0.013 -0.043 -0.092 0.006 -0.121 -0.008 -0.005 -0.146 0.038 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.005 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.999 0.046 -0.525 3.609 0.047 0.159 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.158 0.086 -0.031 -0.098 -0.029 -0.128 -0.033 -0.022 -0.123 0.045 PACF 0.158 0.063 -0.055 -0.094 0.006 -0.115 -0.003 -0.008 -0.133 0.065 95% C.L. 0.118 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 0.159 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES