RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok WIDTH_RING PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 736051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.987 0.417 1.597 6.643 0.164 0.782 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.985 0.428 0.893 2.987 0.143 0.907 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.701 0.299 0.222 2.215 0.183 0.855 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.687 0.350 0.504 2.874 0.172 0.916 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.869 0.475 0.500 2.009 0.175 0.920 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.969 0.428 0.672 3.009 0.153 0.912 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.571 0.325 0.878 3.225 0.180 0.921 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.522 0.323 0.760 2.798 0.183 0.931 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.326 0.293 1.795 6.330 0.219 0.917 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.407 0.293 1.702 8.210 0.191 0.934 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.632 0.190 1.030 3.660 0.136 0.831 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.533 0.169 0.681 4.073 0.146 0.820 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.798 0.312 0.648 2.713 0.177 0.843 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.946 0.295 1.319 5.480 0.177 0.703 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.659 0.366 0.903 2.951 0.162 0.930 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.596 0.337 1.140 3.791 0.170 0.934 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.463 0.221 -0.244 2.249 0.155 0.917 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.524 0.406 1.940 6.647 0.175 0.922 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.610 0.206 1.229 5.578 0.159 0.790 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.548 0.229 1.244 4.654 0.159 0.832 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.425 0.289 1.889 8.217 0.203 0.890 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.499 0.307 1.557 5.292 0.210 0.841 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 0.648 0.316 1.039 4.346 0.172 0.875 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.199 0.082 0.567 1.922 0.021 0.063 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.603 0.310 0.967 3.725 0.174 0.910 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.277 0.076 0.884 2.704 0.024 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.326 0.169 -0.244 2.009 0.136 0.703 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.522 0.289 0.672 2.874 0.159 0.832 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 0.798 0.366 1.557 5.578 0.183 0.921 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 0.987 0.475 1.940 8.217 0.219 0.934 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.156 0.380 0.025 -0.084 2.120 -0.689 0.939 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.689 SERIES 736091 AND 736092 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.939 SERIES 736081 AND 736082 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.579 0.437 0.350 0.096 0.084 0.199 0.271 0.242 0.229 SDEV 0.174 0.321 0.331 0.554 0.446 0.394 0.333 0.302 0.415 SERR 0.071 0.070 0.072 0.054 0.034 0.029 0.022 0.022 0.030 EPS 0.900 0.876 0.887 0.665 0.648 0.841 0.891 0.873 0.859 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.601 0.155 0.150 2.921 0.119 0.832 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.714 0.674 -0.097 61 227 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.27 1.01 1.09 2.36 14.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.830 0.721 0.624 0.570 0.491 0.431 0.357 0.307 0.257 0.240 PACF 0.830 0.105 0.004 0.097 -0.067 0.008 -0.062 0.010 -0.005 0.066 95% C.L. 0.118 0.182 0.218 0.241 0.259 0.272 0.281 0.287 0.292 0.295 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.692 0.741 0.107 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 1 0.61444336 0.04941700 0.00000000 0.90465820 2 736012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008247 0.93739545 3 736021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004917 0.68579960 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114219 0.81299061 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00315749 1.15305698 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041542 1.00615144 7 736041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043906 0.50780636 8 736042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059116 0.43627825 9 736051 1 1.05673730 0.01945474 0.00000000 0.12283146 10 736052 1 1.28554201 0.05032197 0.00000000 0.31586653 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175297 0.48638210 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175005 0.36108947 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00464542 1.14686286 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00243191 1.14313352 15 736081 1 1.11474073 0.01783632 0.00000000 0.19483046 16 736082 1 1.04344046 0.02627901 0.00000000 0.26993331 17 736091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00224152 0.22864549 18 736092 1 1.63879240 0.03123028 0.00000000 0.25522095 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089087 0.52798533 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 1 1.00387335 0.10915361 0.00000000 0.50245267 21 736111 1 1.17983377 0.05708093 0.00000000 0.32317477 22 736112 1 1.21635878 0.06614391 0.00000000 0.40797183 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.418 2.147 9.480 0.163 0.751 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.454 1.058 3.350 0.135 0.917 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.408 0.274 2.460 0.178 0.850 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.996 0.480 0.677 3.110 0.166 0.909 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.992 0.506 0.563 2.235 0.175 0.896 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.436 0.611 2.970 0.152 0.904 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.999 0.561 0.842 3.221 0.179 0.914 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.999 0.602 0.684 2.678 0.184 0.919 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.999 0.457 0.685 2.925 0.216 0.810 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.544 0.167 2.323 0.190 0.919 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.001 0.253 0.134 2.374 0.135 0.784 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.002 0.272 0.973 5.881 0.145 0.717 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.001 0.304 0.766 3.236 0.177 0.733 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.281 1.301 6.447 0.176 0.636 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.008 0.420 1.192 4.056 0.161 0.870 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.005 0.371 0.828 2.813 0.169 0.837 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.987 0.446 0.524 3.376 0.154 0.848 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.278 0.587 3.190 0.174 0.692 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.001 0.339 1.679 8.862 0.158 0.761 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.344 0.666 2.675 0.158 0.814 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.510 1.381 4.811 0.202 0.841 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.999 0.513 1.945 6.882 0.208 0.815 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.999 0.418 0.895 4.062 0.171 0.824 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.004 0.102 0.532 2.111 0.021 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.428 0.726 3.206 0.172 0.839 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.002 0.167 0.604 2.133 0.021 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.987 0.253 0.134 2.235 0.135 0.636 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.999 0.339 0.587 2.678 0.158 0.761 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.001 0.506 1.192 4.811 0.179 0.904 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.008 0.602 2.147 9.480 0.216 0.919 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.995 0.326 1.385 8.468 0.163 0.716 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.985 0.336 0.165 2.174 0.135 0.851 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.991 0.340 0.340 3.377 0.177 0.772 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.988 0.324 0.589 4.253 0.166 0.781 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.990 0.416 0.459 2.677 0.176 0.833 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.986 0.310 0.077 2.892 0.151 0.799 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.976 0.410 0.467 2.719 0.180 0.840 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.961 0.449 0.569 3.138 0.185 0.866 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.992 0.425 0.678 3.171 0.216 0.749 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.445 0.519 3.748 0.192 0.837 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.993 0.197 0.269 2.739 0.135 0.660 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.996 0.240 0.513 4.489 0.144 0.664 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.995 0.268 0.536 2.831 0.177 0.668 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.996 0.247 1.019 5.916 0.176 0.545 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.984 0.223 0.131 2.796 0.159 0.629 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.991 0.264 0.828 3.577 0.168 0.684 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.979 0.403 1.360 6.882 0.153 0.745 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.997 0.229 0.309 3.113 0.174 0.532 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.996 0.235 0.219 3.378 0.158 0.637 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.997 0.309 0.843 3.639 0.158 0.768 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.994 0.340 0.623 3.471 0.202 0.703 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.995 0.321 0.441 3.018 0.208 0.695 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.990 0.321 0.561 3.748 0.171 0.726 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.009 0.078 0.354 1.509 0.022 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.992 0.322 0.516 3.274 0.171 0.730 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.009 0.156 0.369 0.917 0.022 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.961 0.197 0.077 2.174 0.135 0.532 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.986 0.247 0.309 2.831 0.158 0.664 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 0.996 0.403 0.678 3.748 0.180 0.799 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 0.999 0.449 1.385 8.468 0.216 0.866 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.235 0.234 0.015 0.004 2.266 -0.290 0.804 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.290 SERIES 736031 AND 736111 179 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.804 SERIES 736111 AND 736112 196 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.649 0.520 0.341 0.216 0.119 0.175 0.223 0.240 0.308 SDEV 0.135 0.278 0.344 0.447 0.355 0.338 0.290 0.329 0.282 SERR 0.055 0.061 0.075 0.044 0.027 0.025 0.019 0.024 0.020 EPS 0.924 0.908 0.883 0.837 0.730 0.819 0.863 0.872 0.902 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.986 0.217 0.286 3.030 0.123 0.742 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.258 0.132 0.138 84 204 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.91 1.01 1.13 2.04 19.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.739 0.648 0.531 0.452 0.330 0.253 0.154 0.079 -0.002 -0.056 PACF 0.739 0.222 -0.013 0.013 -0.111 -0.025 -0.074 -0.050 -0.058 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.118 0.171 0.202 0.220 0.233 0.239 0.243 0.244 0.245 0.245 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.571 0.572 0.227 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.673 0.605 0.509 0.411 0.310 0.248 0.170 0.106 0.058 0.015 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.673 2 0.487 0.277 3 0.471 0.250 0.055 4 0.473 0.259 0.070 -0.033 5 0.471 0.264 0.089 0.002 -0.074 6 0.470 0.264 0.090 0.003 -0.071 -0.006 7 0.470 0.261 0.090 0.007 -0.060 0.013 -0.041 8 0.469 0.261 0.088 0.007 -0.057 0.023 -0.023 -0.039 9 0.468 0.261 0.088 0.006 -0.056 0.025 -0.018 -0.029 -0.019 10 0.467 0.260 0.088 0.007 -0.058 0.025 -0.016 -0.025 -0.011 -0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2240.44 2068.60 2047.59 2048.72 2050.41 2050.84 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2052.83 2054.35 2055.92 2057.81 2059.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.487 0.277 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 49.52 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 198.08 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.487 0.514 0.385 0.330 0.267 0.221 0.182 0.150 0.123 0.1015 0.084 0.069 0.057 0.047 0.038 0.032 0.026 0.021 0.018 0.0145 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.0021 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.533 0.790 -0.095 2 736012 2 0.745 0.644 0.245 3 736021 2 0.615 0.667 0.142 4 736022 2 0.642 0.624 0.207 5 736031 2 0.707 0.800 0.047 6 736032 2 0.661 0.655 0.187 7 736041 2 0.724 0.702 0.169 8 736042 2 0.775 0.619 0.287 9 736051 2 0.611 0.506 0.326 10 736052 2 0.761 0.651 0.246 11 736061 2 0.439 0.609 0.078 12 736062 2 0.469 0.514 0.226 13 736071 2 0.463 0.573 0.145 14 736072 2 0.309 0.520 0.059 15 736081 2 0.424 0.517 0.181 16 736082 2 0.474 0.670 0.025 17 736091 2 0.636 0.552 0.284 18 736092 2 0.310 0.472 0.119 19 736101 2 0.424 0.547 0.147 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.592 0.720 0.063 21 736111 2 0.522 0.581 0.178 22 736112 2 0.500 0.583 0.164 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.561 0.614 0.156 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.089 0.099 MEDIAN 2 0.563 0.614 0.167 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.198 0.120 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.309 0.472 -0.095 LOWER HINGE 2 0.463 0.547 0.078 UPPER HINGE 2 0.661 0.667 0.226 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.775 0.800 0.326 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.224 1.175 8.468 0.228 0.014 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.169 -0.017 4.349 0.177 0.009 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.211 0.668 6.201 0.216 0.005 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.195 0.453 5.177 0.195 0.025 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.225 0.753 5.546 0.226 -0.002 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.180 0.099 3.340 0.194 -0.015 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.001 0.213 0.339 6.510 0.227 0.019 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.214 0.394 4.715 0.224 0.024 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.265 1.449 11.278 0.259 0.006 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.218 0.359 4.381 0.234 0.006 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.148 -0.093 3.002 0.167 -0.002 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.174 0.952 7.315 0.179 -0.006 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.197 0.550 3.606 0.221 -0.011 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.205 1.178 8.211 0.218 -0.006 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.170 -0.008 3.092 0.197 -0.020 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.192 0.515 4.351 0.208 -0.001 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.004 0.214 -0.223 8.147 0.202 0.034 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.192 0.075 3.271 0.215 -0.014 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.177 0.168 3.553 0.199 -0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.198 0.097 4.088 0.215 0.003 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.236 0.633 4.747 0.253 -0.024 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.227 0.508 4.269 0.251 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.202 0.456 5.346 0.214 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.001 0.026 0.445 2.167 0.024 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.201 0.423 4.548 0.216 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.038 0.571 2.904 0.030 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.148 -0.223 3.002 0.167 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.180 0.097 3.606 0.197 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.218 0.668 6.510 0.227 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.004 0.265 1.449 11.278 0.259 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.332 0.146 0.010 0.484 2.696 0.070 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.070 SERIES 736011 AND 736051 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 736101 AND 736102 183 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.534 0.452 0.417 0.335 0.250 0.241 0.408 0.392 0.309 SDEV 0.081 0.186 0.219 0.190 0.183 0.192 0.157 0.162 0.168 SERR 0.033 0.041 0.048 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.010 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.882 0.883 0.912 0.904 0.870 0.871 0.938 0.933 0.902 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.993 0.133 -0.359 5.804 0.152 -0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.289 0.165 -0.015 106 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.76 1.01 1.11 1.87 25.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 0.028 -0.035 0.092 -0.022 0.032 0.009 -0.019 -0.080 -0.039 PACF -0.063 0.024 -0.032 0.087 -0.010 0.025 0.019 -0.028 -0.080 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.026 0.087 -0.014 0.030 0.012 -0.023 -0.083 -0.048 PACF 0.001 -0.004 -0.026 0.087 -0.015 0.030 0.016 -0.032 -0.079 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.001 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.990 0.184 0.243 2.798 0.116 0.663 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.661 0.588 0.448 0.396 0.274 0.207 0.118 0.034 -0.049 -0.083 PACF 0.661 0.269 -0.026 0.053 -0.087 -0.037 -0.053 -0.092 -0.077 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.118 0.161 0.189 0.203 0.214 0.218 0.221 0.222 0.222 0.222 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.481 0.480 0.274 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES