RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK009X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK009X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 736 1 Slana bei Tok DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCGL - 736 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14355 1696 1983 - 736 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 736012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 36 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 736021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1785 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 736022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 40 IN 1 GAPS / 1777 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 736042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1778 1780 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 0.789 0.054 -0.022 3.158 0.054 0.523 2 736012 1742 1983 242 0.759 0.063 -0.524 4.001 0.066 0.456 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.715 0.084 -0.436 2.714 0.072 0.643 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.722 0.100 -0.645 2.566 0.063 0.809 5 736031 1805 1983 179 0.712 0.085 0.009 2.603 0.093 0.539 6 736032 1804 1983 180 0.791 0.066 -0.155 2.909 0.069 0.447 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.689 0.082 -0.524 2.782 0.064 0.743 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.655 0.095 -0.169 2.572 0.066 0.819 9 736051 1714 1983 270 0.776 0.088 -0.117 2.741 0.067 0.708 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.735 0.089 -0.209 2.235 0.078 0.655 11 736061 1819 1983 165 0.799 0.074 -0.465 3.439 0.066 0.552 12 736062 1788 1983 196 0.795 0.089 -0.459 2.862 0.064 0.720 13 736071 1787 1935 149 0.765 0.061 -0.571 3.146 0.053 0.640 14 736072 1781 1941 161 0.771 0.072 -1.180 5.636 0.074 0.455 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.756 0.079 -0.604 2.457 0.062 0.725 16 736082 1870 1983 114 0.762 0.079 -0.069 2.118 0.060 0.747 17 736091 1776 1983 208 0.779 0.105 -0.700 2.939 0.062 0.831 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.582 0.104 0.483 2.158 0.072 0.856 19 736101 1801 1983 183 0.836 0.061 0.570 3.268 0.054 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 0.799 0.077 -0.539 2.993 0.054 0.759 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.736 0.092 0.303 2.607 0.069 0.741 22 736112 1788 1983 196 0.756 0.066 -0.002 3.351 0.063 0.567 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1696 TO 1983 288 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 0.749 0.080 -0.274 2.966 0.066 0.658 STANDARD DEVIATION 47 0.055 0.015 0.412 0.744 0.009 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 0.760 0.080 -0.322 2.822 0.065 0.682 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.066 0.023 0.518 0.586 0.007 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.582 0.054 -1.180 2.118 0.053 0.447 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.722 0.066 -0.539 2.572 0.062 0.542 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 211 0.789 0.089 -0.022 3.158 0.069 0.747 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 0.836 0.105 0.570 5.636 0.093 0.856 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.166 0.288 0.019 -0.260 2.468 -0.695 0.785 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.695 SERIES 736091 AND 736092 192 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.785 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.323 0.412 0.515 0.286 0.323 0.333 0.270 0.202 0.166 SDEV 0.332 0.245 0.173 0.300 0.197 0.196 0.231 0.233 0.294 SERR 0.135 0.053 0.038 0.029 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.021 EPS 0.758 0.865 0.939 0.882 0.906 0.914 0.891 0.845 0.804 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 0.740 0.048 -0.693 3.667 0.050 0.470 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.098 -0.082 0.149 98 190 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.56 1.00 1.14 1.70 99.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 194. 86. 114. 165. 251. 288. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.469 0.396 0.362 0.294 0.286 0.164 0.181 0.180 0.108 0.209 PACF 0.469 0.226 0.151 0.050 0.077 -0.086 0.042 0.047 -0.041 0.148 95% C.L. 0.118 0.141 0.156 0.167 0.174 0.181 0.183 0.185 0.188 0.188 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.286 0.327 0.186 0.145 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069739 0.73669332 2 736012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021821 0.72150475 3 736021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019694 0.68561429 4 736022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023085 0.68839717 5 736031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005040 0.70697194 6 736032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069978 0.72805834 7 736041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015938 0.71226674 8 736042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035432 0.60368001 9 736051 1 0.45024899 0.00201936 0.00000000 0.42939034 10 736052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055251 0.81089473 11 736061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093834 0.72132963 12 736062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121397 0.67521977 13 736071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008424 0.75878286 14 736072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041437 0.73711956 15 736081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099627 0.81476271 16 736082 1 0.20311186 0.03912862 0.00000000 0.71753466 17 736091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00134519 0.63889909 18 736092 1 0.43919110 0.00596846 0.00000000 0.32162842 19 736101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062284 0.77903742 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004735 0.79426736 21 736111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038052 0.69791204 22 736112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021505 0.73458242 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.056 -0.494 3.213 0.054 0.318 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.085 -0.252 3.031 0.063 0.541 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.110 -0.479 3.010 0.070 0.624 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.128 -0.656 2.795 0.064 0.774 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.120 -0.010 2.603 0.092 0.535 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.070 -0.287 3.226 0.069 0.202 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.118 -0.336 2.650 0.064 0.737 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.141 0.086 2.632 0.067 0.810 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.089 -0.091 3.312 0.067 0.511 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.107 0.131 2.638 0.078 0.553 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.075 -0.606 3.448 0.065 0.341 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.073 -0.212 3.354 0.063 0.363 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.080 -0.557 3.124 0.053 0.635 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.091 -0.994 4.986 0.074 0.418 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.096 -0.097 3.184 0.062 0.669 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.082 -0.030 2.665 0.059 0.578 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.091 -0.278 4.466 0.062 0.556 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.101 0.384 3.185 0.072 0.571 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.060 0.299 2.704 0.054 0.334 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.096 -0.572 3.023 0.054 0.755 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.122 0.225 2.484 0.069 0.725 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.085 -0.165 3.203 0.062 0.548 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.094 -0.227 3.133 0.065 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.022 0.345 0.594 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.091 -0.232 3.078 0.064 0.554 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.030 0.484 0.561 0.007 0.250 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.056 -0.994 2.484 0.053 0.202 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.080 -0.494 2.665 0.062 0.418 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.110 -0.010 3.226 0.069 0.669 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.141 0.384 4.986 0.092 0.810 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 736011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 736012 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 736021 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 736022 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 736031 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 736032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 736041 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 736042 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 736051 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 736052 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 736061 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 736062 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 736071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 736072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 736081 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 736082 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 736091 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 736092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 736101 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 736102 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 736111 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 736112 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.054 -0.512 3.257 0.054 0.268 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.077 -0.202 3.511 0.063 0.442 3 736021 1730 1983 254 0.999 0.095 0.015 2.866 0.070 0.524 4 736022 1726 1976 251 0.999 0.099 -0.204 3.075 0.064 0.633 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.102 -0.327 2.731 0.093 0.369 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.068 -0.277 3.098 0.069 0.159 7 736041 1696 1983 288 0.999 0.095 -0.125 2.626 0.064 0.584 8 736042 1702 1983 282 0.998 0.106 0.147 2.842 0.067 0.666 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.086 -0.025 3.574 0.067 0.470 10 736052 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.097 0.078 2.904 0.078 0.471 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.063 -0.773 4.098 0.065 0.079 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.062 -0.297 3.400 0.063 0.142 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.064 -0.673 3.950 0.053 0.444 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.071 -1.085 5.472 0.074 0.003 15 736081 1865 1981 117 0.999 0.072 -0.535 3.092 0.062 0.392 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.072 -0.131 2.638 0.059 0.445 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.081 -0.208 5.363 0.062 0.448 18 736092 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.084 0.352 3.499 0.071 0.397 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.057 0.206 2.642 0.054 0.258 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.073 -0.418 3.617 0.054 0.567 21 736111 1787 1983 197 0.999 0.085 -0.011 2.901 0.069 0.444 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.077 0.018 3.540 0.062 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 0.999 0.079 -0.227 3.395 0.065 0.393 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.015 0.341 0.777 0.009 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.077 -0.203 3.178 0.064 0.443 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.026 0.433 0.708 0.007 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.998 0.054 -1.085 2.626 0.053 0.003 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.999 0.068 -0.418 2.866 0.062 0.268 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.095 0.015 3.574 0.069 0.471 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.106 0.352 5.472 0.093 0.666 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.277 0.140 0.009 -0.027 2.799 -0.137 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 736081 AND 736101 117 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.323 0.441 0.501 0.322 0.362 0.352 0.306 0.243 0.236 SDEV 0.319 0.224 0.168 0.233 0.163 0.171 0.179 0.196 0.205 SERR 0.130 0.049 0.037 0.023 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.757 0.878 0.936 0.899 0.919 0.921 0.907 0.874 0.864 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.052 -0.454 3.876 0.049 0.223 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.008 -0.004 0.073 72 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.53 1.01 1.07 1.60 40.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.222 0.126 0.085 0.053 0.109 -0.054 0.000 -0.002 -0.094 0.044 PACF 0.222 0.081 0.044 0.018 0.089 -0.109 0.012 -0.001 -0.098 0.083 95% C.L. 0.118 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.057 0.224 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.188 0.159 0.051 0.023 0.018 -0.047 0.029 0.002 -0.103 0.035 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.188 2 0.163 0.129 3 0.163 0.129 0.001 4 0.163 0.129 0.002 -0.006 5 0.163 0.129 0.001 -0.008 0.009 6 0.164 0.129 0.001 0.000 0.018 -0.056 7 0.166 0.128 0.001 0.000 0.012 -0.063 0.044 8 0.166 0.128 0.001 0.000 0.012 -0.064 0.043 0.004 9 0.167 0.134 -0.007 0.001 0.012 -0.064 0.058 0.024 -0.118 10 0.175 0.132 -0.011 0.006 0.012 -0.064 0.059 0.014 -0.131 0.074 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1478.22 1469.91 1467.10 1469.10 1471.09 1473.06 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1474.15 1475.59 1477.59 1475.53 1475.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.163 0.129 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.12 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.39 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.163 0.155 0.046 0.028 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 736011 2 0.074 0.273 0.000 2 736012 2 0.263 0.333 0.249 3 736021 2 0.315 0.420 0.210 4 736022 2 0.426 0.527 0.175 5 736031 2 0.224 0.252 0.318 6 736032 2 0.041 0.145 0.088 7 736041 2 0.381 0.477 0.190 8 736042 2 0.469 0.527 0.210 9 736051 2 0.224 0.451 0.043 10 736052 2 0.258 0.382 0.196 11 736061 2 0.042 0.066 0.186 12 736062 2 0.041 0.125 0.137 13 736071 2 0.261 0.348 0.218 14 736072 2 0.020 0.002 0.136 15 736081 2 0.177 0.340 0.138 16 736082 2 0.210 0.425 0.064 17 736091 2 0.229 0.397 0.125 18 736092 2 0.213 0.307 0.242 19 736101 2 0.107 0.210 0.200 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 736102 2 0.368 0.419 0.261 21 736111 2 0.224 0.380 0.154 22 736112 2 0.212 0.379 0.144 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.217 0.327 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.127 0.143 0.075 MEDIAN 2 0.224 0.363 0.180 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.157 0.168 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.020 0.002 0.000 LOWER HINGE 2 0.107 0.252 0.136 UPPER HINGE 2 0.263 0.420 0.210 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.469 0.527 0.318 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 736011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.052 -0.535 3.330 0.060 -0.004 2 736012 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.067 -0.444 4.254 0.075 -0.038 3 736021 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.079 -0.323 3.480 0.085 0.001 4 736022 1726 1976 251 1.000 0.074 -0.297 3.433 0.081 -0.005 5 736031 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.090 -0.438 2.652 0.102 -0.011 6 736032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.067 -0.326 3.334 0.074 0.007 7 736041 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.075 -0.304 3.500 0.080 -0.021 8 736042 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.077 -0.067 3.210 0.084 -0.007 9 736051 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.076 0.215 4.672 0.080 -0.003 10 736052 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.084 -0.196 3.451 0.094 -0.017 11 736061 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.062 -0.705 4.109 0.067 -0.009 12 736062 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.061 -0.287 3.437 0.067 -0.008 13 736071 1787 1935 149 1.000 0.056 -0.299 3.614 0.064 -0.039 14 736072 1781 1941 161 1.000 0.071 -1.062 5.621 0.074 0.006 15 736081 1865 1981 117 1.000 0.065 -0.889 3.502 0.074 -0.012 16 736082 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.064 -0.047 3.334 0.071 0.006 17 736091 1776 1983 208 1.000 0.071 -0.052 5.577 0.074 0.006 18 736092 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.075 0.006 3.117 0.082 0.000 19 736101 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.054 0.188 2.733 0.059 -0.008 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 736102 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.058 -0.249 3.090 0.065 -0.001 21 736111 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.075 -0.027 3.442 0.083 0.003 22 736112 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.068 -0.077 3.927 0.074 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 202 1.000 0.069 -0.283 3.674 0.076 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 51 0.000 0.010 0.316 0.770 0.010 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 194 1.000 0.069 -0.292 3.447 0.074 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 86 0.000 0.013 0.386 0.597 0.014 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.052 -1.062 2.652 0.059 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.062 -0.438 3.330 0.067 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 251 1.000 0.075 -0.052 3.927 0.082 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 288 1.000 0.090 0.215 5.621 0.102 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.364 0.115 0.008 0.033 2.828 0.082 0.704 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.082 SERIES 736051 AND 736112 196 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.704 SERIES 736061 AND 736062 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.75 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1750. 1775. 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 21. 21. 105. 171. 190. 231. 190. 190. RBAR 0.479 0.589 0.613 0.402 0.446 0.435 0.394 0.330 0.293 SDEV 0.111 0.112 0.133 0.193 0.148 0.128 0.122 0.153 0.171 SERR 0.045 0.024 0.029 0.019 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.857 0.929 0.958 0.926 0.942 0.942 0.935 0.914 0.895 NSS 6.5 9.1 14.6 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.050 -0.693 4.564 0.057 -0.134 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.102 -0.037 0.089 77 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.47 1.00 1.07 1.54 8.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.134 -0.145 -0.026 -0.041 0.097 -0.110 0.022 0.021 -0.148 0.081 PACF -0.134 -0.166 -0.074 -0.086 0.064 -0.113 0.009 -0.007 -0.153 0.022 95% C.L. 0.118 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.050 -0.156 -0.167 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.023 -0.071 -0.077 0.078 -0.102 -0.001 -0.007 -0.139 0.074 PACF -0.012 -0.023 -0.072 -0.080 0.073 -0.111 -0.011 -0.008 -0.148 0.051 95% C.L. 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 -0.012 -0.023 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.050 -0.601 4.090 0.050 0.155 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.155 0.109 -0.037 -0.071 0.040 -0.107 -0.032 -0.035 -0.130 0.053 PACF 0.155 0.087 -0.068 -0.069 0.074 -0.116 -0.020 -0.003 -0.129 0.080 95% C.L. 0.118 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.126 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.036 0.142 0.088 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES