RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK010E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK010E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 737 1 Eureka Summit WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 737 2 United States of America White Spruce 960 6150-14720 1654 1983 - 737 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 737042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1699 1702 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.294 0.204 0.747 2.790 0.232 0.923 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.401 0.202 0.221 3.182 0.245 0.837 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.496 0.217 0.074 2.303 0.185 0.864 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.408 0.173 0.042 2.882 0.237 0.746 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.574 0.196 1.692 6.848 0.160 0.793 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.475 0.231 -0.028 1.842 0.143 0.933 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.507 0.261 0.672 2.671 0.162 0.940 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.526 0.200 0.100 2.874 0.204 0.778 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.575 0.250 -0.310 2.605 0.202 0.851 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.199 0.419 0.943 3.868 0.275 0.482 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.610 0.247 1.305 4.391 0.163 0.861 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.417 0.260 1.844 5.744 0.189 0.925 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.542 0.299 0.409 2.626 0.169 0.894 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.548 0.309 0.194 2.314 0.175 0.919 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.719 0.239 0.241 2.512 0.164 0.812 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.579 0.183 0.853 3.467 0.166 0.787 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.309 0.150 0.393 2.149 0.261 0.806 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.299 0.155 0.821 3.151 0.202 0.897 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.068 0.413 0.627 2.973 0.201 0.782 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.156 0.437 0.731 3.824 0.199 0.779 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.555 0.177 -0.231 3.315 0.166 0.800 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.544 0.270 -0.007 2.002 0.180 0.904 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1654 TO 1983 330 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.582 0.250 0.515 3.197 0.195 0.832 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.251 0.082 0.577 1.194 0.036 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.543 0.235 0.401 2.878 0.187 0.844 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.163 0.074 0.747 0.955 0.038 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.294 0.150 -0.310 1.842 0.143 0.482 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.417 0.196 0.074 2.512 0.166 0.787 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.579 0.270 0.821 3.467 0.204 0.904 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.199 0.437 1.844 6.848 0.275 0.940 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.563 0.251 0.016 -0.989 3.066 -0.129 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 737060 AND 737102 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.389 0.356 0.447 0.170 0.264 0.566 0.327 0.407 0.409 0.585 SDEV 0.000 0.252 0.292 0.306 0.233 0.169 0.281 0.245 0.324 0.260 SERR 0.000 0.145 0.119 0.058 0.031 0.019 0.024 0.020 0.023 0.017 EPS 0.619 0.719 0.856 0.686 0.832 0.955 0.896 0.932 0.937 0.969 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.408 SDEV 0.239 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.938 NSS 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.511 0.169 -0.062 1.988 0.140 0.878 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.389 0.190 0.121 166 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.00 1.00 1.22 2.22 37.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.12 0.63 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 224. 76. 108. 183. 259. 330. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.875 0.855 0.846 0.815 0.799 0.765 0.734 0.730 0.697 0.669 PACF 0.875 0.383 0.245 0.044 0.056 -0.062 -0.056 0.079 -0.030 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.110 0.175 0.220 0.256 0.286 0.312 0.334 0.353 0.371 0.386 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.829 0.376 0.214 0.230 0.055 0.081 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148418 0.53975374 2 737012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185891 0.64880407 3 737021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022776 0.46898666 4 737022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00160366 0.58961308 5 737030 1 0.83148080 0.08122209 0.00000000 0.49300528 6 737041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235247 0.82904750 7 737042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058723 0.60414743 8 737051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054759 0.57600671 9 737052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254049 0.80880743 10 737060 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023431 1.18584108 11 737071 1 0.93393505 0.05388286 0.00000000 0.47512349 12 737072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00295821 0.63837564 13 737081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00295872 0.91168708 14 737082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261324 0.88763672 15 737091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00263343 1.02797472 16 737092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00196015 0.79792631 17 737101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00335908 0.53445661 18 737102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181179 0.47713500 19 737111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00581733 1.62934065 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00555851 1.73967195 21 737121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152779 0.76257646 22 737122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292070 0.92347491 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.974 0.455 0.591 2.457 0.233 0.819 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.983 0.427 0.732 3.926 0.244 0.760 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.427 -0.033 2.305 0.185 0.855 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.988 0.367 0.409 3.224 0.235 0.702 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.209 0.336 3.319 0.158 0.584 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.983 0.228 0.206 3.037 0.143 0.717 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.996 0.479 0.565 2.718 0.162 0.926 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.999 0.386 0.309 3.107 0.203 0.780 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.984 0.397 0.010 2.816 0.201 0.818 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.349 0.934 3.859 0.272 0.476 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.999 0.228 0.039 2.386 0.161 0.585 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.012 0.470 0.827 3.323 0.188 0.860 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.993 0.469 1.762 7.462 0.169 0.858 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.979 0.504 0.931 3.349 0.174 0.910 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.228 0.291 2.927 0.163 0.621 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.001 0.218 0.449 2.856 0.165 0.544 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.006 0.253 0.264 2.793 0.258 0.239 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.998 0.382 1.175 4.850 0.201 0.802 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.002 0.240 0.412 2.697 0.200 0.489 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.240 0.661 3.378 0.198 0.452 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.994 0.246 -0.434 4.020 0.166 0.672 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.975 0.287 -0.131 2.332 0.179 0.720 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.994 0.340 0.468 3.325 0.194 0.690 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.010 0.103 0.482 1.114 0.035 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.999 0.358 0.410 3.072 0.186 0.719 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.016 0.187 0.526 0.659 0.038 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.974 0.209 -0.434 2.305 0.143 0.239 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.984 0.240 0.206 2.718 0.165 0.584 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.427 0.732 3.378 0.203 0.819 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.012 0.504 1.762 7.462 0.272 0.926 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 737012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 737021 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 737022 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 737030 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 737041 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 737042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 737051 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 737052 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 737060 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 737071 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 737072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 737081 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 737082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 737091 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 737092 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 737101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 737102 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 737111 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 737121 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 737122 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.986 0.392 0.708 3.424 0.233 0.733 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.983 0.344 0.653 4.113 0.245 0.615 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.972 0.279 0.440 4.291 0.185 0.687 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.992 0.310 1.056 4.878 0.235 0.584 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.999 0.168 0.405 3.213 0.158 0.353 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.999 0.204 0.001 3.217 0.143 0.624 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.989 0.256 0.057 3.299 0.162 0.689 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.988 0.275 1.121 5.349 0.203 0.573 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.987 0.228 0.314 2.826 0.202 0.469 10 737060 1876 1983 108 0.992 0.301 0.743 3.920 0.271 0.303 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.997 0.192 0.394 2.451 0.161 0.411 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.971 0.308 0.753 3.968 0.187 0.725 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.977 0.377 1.996 10.682 0.169 0.801 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.970 0.396 1.344 6.581 0.174 0.819 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.997 0.211 0.227 2.917 0.163 0.560 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.999 0.209 0.415 2.860 0.165 0.510 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.998 0.236 0.204 3.019 0.258 0.143 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.986 0.317 0.857 3.994 0.201 0.712 19 737111 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.236 0.427 2.781 0.200 0.478 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.235 0.583 3.197 0.198 0.433 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.996 0.210 -0.292 3.270 0.166 0.539 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.996 0.237 0.175 3.483 0.179 0.523 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.990 0.269 0.572 3.988 0.194 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.010 0.066 0.501 1.776 0.035 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.992 0.247 0.434 3.361 0.186 0.566 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.013 0.099 0.526 1.094 0.037 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.970 0.168 -0.292 2.451 0.143 0.143 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.986 0.211 0.227 3.019 0.165 0.469 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.998 0.310 0.753 4.113 0.203 0.689 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.396 1.996 10.682 0.271 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.358 0.164 0.011 -0.001 3.635 -0.232 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.232 SERIES 737082 AND 737121 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.108 0.270 0.481 0.226 0.277 0.526 0.408 0.461 0.362 0.442 SDEV 0.000 0.097 0.278 0.237 0.230 0.186 0.270 0.226 0.265 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.056 0.113 0.045 0.031 0.021 0.023 0.018 0.019 0.014 EPS 0.236 0.631 0.872 0.758 0.841 0.947 0.924 0.944 0.925 0.946 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.438 SDEV 0.208 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.945 NSS 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.972 0.162 -0.051 2.809 0.146 0.420 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.274 0.142 0.071 101 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 5.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.48 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.419 0.390 0.338 0.301 0.278 0.152 0.170 0.141 0.105 0.083 PACF 0.419 0.261 0.140 0.086 0.068 -0.088 0.021 0.014 -0.014 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.110 0.128 0.142 0.151 0.158 0.164 0.166 0.168 0.169 0.170 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.260 0.260 0.204 0.118 0.084 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.463 0.443 0.400 0.346 0.305 0.156 0.181 0.147 0.104 0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.463 2 0.328 0.291 3 0.280 0.236 0.166 4 0.268 0.218 0.145 0.075 5 0.265 0.213 0.137 0.065 0.038 6 0.270 0.222 0.157 0.095 0.076 -0.143 7 0.273 0.221 0.155 0.092 0.072 -0.148 0.017 8 0.272 0.224 0.154 0.091 0.069 -0.152 0.012 0.019 9 0.272 0.224 0.153 0.091 0.070 -0.151 0.014 0.021 -0.008 10 0.272 0.225 0.153 0.084 0.073 -0.146 0.021 0.032 0.005 -0.048 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2590.41 2512.83 2485.68 2478.41 2478.57 2480.10 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2475.26 2477.16 2479.04 2481.02 2482.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.280 0.236 0.166 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 142.98 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.280 0.314 0.321 0.211 0.187 0.155 0.123 0.102 0.083 0.0679 0.056 0.046 0.037 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.0091 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0012 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 737011 3 0.637 0.393 0.384 0.087 2 737012 3 0.413 0.517 0.058 0.135 3 737021 3 0.525 0.505 0.178 0.111 4 737022 3 0.417 0.372 0.189 0.197 5 737030 3 0.185 0.256 0.155 0.148 6 737041 3 0.455 0.426 0.282 0.045 7 737042 3 0.501 0.559 0.092 0.122 8 737051 3 0.373 0.424 0.153 0.133 9 737052 3 0.268 0.347 0.168 0.118 10 737060 3 0.168 0.210 0.154 0.195 11 737071 3 0.257 0.254 0.274 0.108 12 737072 3 0.612 0.397 0.316 0.145 13 737081 3 0.729 0.539 0.304 0.052 14 737082 3 0.773 0.481 0.260 0.182 15 737091 3 0.330 0.517 0.043 0.065 16 737092 3 0.332 0.351 0.138 0.210 17 737101 3 0.030 0.132 0.100 -0.023 18 737102 3 0.554 0.516 0.212 0.080 19 737111 3 0.255 0.406 0.171 -0.020 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 737112 3 0.214 0.352 0.168 0.027 21 737121 3 0.383 0.329 0.223 0.188 22 737122 3 0.406 0.261 0.291 0.209 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.401 0.388 0.196 0.114 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.188 0.116 0.088 0.070 MEDIAN 3 0.395 0.395 0.174 0.120 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.268 0.176 0.122 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.030 0.132 0.043 -0.023 LOWER HINGE 3 0.257 0.329 0.153 0.065 UPPER HINGE 3 0.525 0.505 0.274 0.182 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.773 0.559 0.384 0.210 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.237 0.189 3.953 0.264 0.000 2 737012 1696 1961 266 1.000 0.266 0.609 5.453 0.289 -0.020 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.192 0.464 3.534 0.215 -0.019 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.237 0.596 2.969 0.267 -0.007 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.152 -0.179 2.784 0.177 0.017 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.151 -0.210 3.807 0.167 0.002 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.181 0.228 3.618 0.195 -0.003 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.218 0.645 5.325 0.242 -0.002 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.195 0.245 2.720 0.228 -0.003 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.274 0.618 3.920 0.303 -0.016 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.165 0.585 3.479 0.184 0.001 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.192 0.415 3.861 0.217 0.004 13 737081 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.196 1.647 12.301 0.203 0.031 14 737082 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.188 0.539 3.781 0.204 0.030 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.173 0.067 3.372 0.198 -0.010 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.172 0.305 2.882 0.193 -0.016 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.232 0.141 2.828 0.270 0.000 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.212 0.412 3.159 0.241 0.009 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.204 0.117 2.642 0.241 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.208 0.368 3.064 0.235 0.000 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.165 -0.169 2.954 0.189 0.008 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.184 -0.315 4.921 0.206 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.200 0.333 3.969 0.224 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.034 0.415 2.024 0.037 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.194 0.337 3.507 0.216 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.045 0.467 0.966 0.047 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.151 -0.315 2.642 0.167 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.173 0.117 2.954 0.195 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.218 0.585 3.920 0.242 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.274 1.647 12.301 0.303 0.031 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.466 0.104 0.007 0.389 3.592 0.212 0.839 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.212 SERIES 737082 AND 737121 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.839 SERIES 737111 AND 737112 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.279 0.366 0.396 0.395 0.373 0.468 0.515 0.536 0.498 0.493 SDEV 0.000 0.119 0.184 0.195 0.156 0.113 0.161 0.124 0.118 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.068 0.075 0.037 0.021 0.013 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.498 0.728 0.828 0.875 0.892 0.934 0.950 0.958 0.955 0.955 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.491 SDEV 0.123 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.955 NSS 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.993 0.138 -0.055 2.753 0.169 -0.147 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.196 0.094 0.044 91 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.84 1.01 1.10 1.94 24.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.28 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.147 -0.053 -0.003 0.021 0.066 -0.092 0.014 0.051 0.000 -0.014 PACF -0.147 -0.076 -0.023 0.013 0.072 -0.070 -0.002 0.045 0.012 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.110 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 -0.147 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.002 0.005 0.017 0.058 -0.077 0.013 0.048 0.002 -0.018 PACF 0.000 0.002 0.005 0.017 0.058 -0.077 0.013 0.048 0.001 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.991 0.162 0.016 2.909 0.140 0.462 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.461 0.439 0.390 0.289 0.265 0.147 0.148 0.125 0.062 0.025 PACF 0.461 0.288 0.157 0.004 0.030 -0.091 0.013 0.023 -0.035 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.110 0.131 0.148 0.160 0.166 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.175 0.176 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.300 0.280 0.241 0.160 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES