RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK010I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK010I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 737 1 Eureka Summit DENSITY_EARLY PCGL - 737 2 United States of America White Spruce 960 6150-14720 1654 1983 - 737 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 737042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1699 1702 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 4.146 0.456 0.620 2.738 0.054 0.794 2 737012 1696 1961 266 4.194 0.550 0.448 2.691 0.066 0.789 3 737021 1745 1983 239 3.005 0.281 0.899 3.357 0.046 0.796 4 737022 1759 1983 225 3.343 0.336 1.353 6.606 0.042 0.832 5 737030 1863 1983 121 3.558 0.166 0.172 3.341 0.044 0.290 6 737041 1684 1983 300 3.089 0.246 0.714 4.597 0.041 0.789 7 737042 1654 1983 330 3.492 0.410 1.444 6.210 0.046 0.842 8 737051 1801 1983 183 3.497 0.190 0.402 3.201 0.034 0.659 9 737052 1801 1983 183 3.422 0.284 1.376 4.639 0.040 0.779 10 737060 1876 1983 108 3.128 0.271 0.759 2.906 0.054 0.672 11 737071 1859 1983 125 3.684 0.237 0.282 3.194 0.037 0.732 12 737072 1835 1983 149 3.730 0.240 0.638 2.735 0.029 0.818 13 737081 1735 1983 249 3.672 0.499 1.972 8.076 0.038 0.919 14 737082 1725 1983 259 3.758 0.432 0.922 4.098 0.040 0.876 15 737091 1750 1983 234 3.352 0.288 0.443 3.267 0.047 0.750 16 737092 1762 1983 222 3.520 0.213 0.096 3.427 0.040 0.653 17 737101 1851 1983 133 3.581 0.328 1.500 6.062 0.049 0.706 18 737102 1788 1983 196 3.992 0.340 0.437 4.144 0.043 0.757 19 737111 1792 1983 192 3.137 0.229 0.240 2.453 0.047 0.650 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 3.094 0.200 0.683 3.566 0.045 0.593 21 737121 1713 1983 271 3.785 0.236 -0.216 3.257 0.034 0.756 22 737122 1725 1983 259 4.052 0.301 0.665 3.816 0.036 0.784 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1654 TO 1983 330 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 3.556 0.306 0.720 4.017 0.043 0.738 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.349 0.104 0.532 1.474 0.008 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 3.539 0.283 0.652 3.392 0.043 0.768 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.414 0.104 0.519 1.403 0.009 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 108 3.005 0.166 -0.216 2.453 0.029 0.290 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 3.343 0.236 0.402 3.194 0.038 0.672 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 3.758 0.340 0.922 4.597 0.047 0.796 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 4.194 0.550 1.972 8.076 0.066 0.919 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.243 0.283 0.019 -0.372 2.326 -0.424 0.787 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.424 SERIES 737082 AND 737091 234 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.787 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR -0.244 0.057 0.222 0.184 0.229 0.216 0.387 0.273 0.273 0.206 SDEV 0.000 0.277 0.302 0.238 0.229 0.213 0.200 0.287 0.203 0.289 SERR 0.000 0.160 0.123 0.045 0.031 0.024 0.017 0.023 0.015 0.019 EPS -1.008 0.220 0.677 0.707 0.804 0.817 0.918 0.882 0.890 0.851 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.173 SDEV 0.289 SERR 0.019 EPS 0.821 NSS 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 3.661 0.313 1.451 5.029 0.031 0.864 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.520 0.311 -0.634 60 270 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.46 1.00 1.06 1.52 4.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.59 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 224. 76. 108. 183. 259. 330. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.862 0.834 0.818 0.807 0.779 0.738 0.741 0.702 0.671 0.657 PACF 0.862 0.356 0.216 0.152 0.027 -0.082 0.103 -0.070 -0.059 0.037 95% C.L. 0.110 0.174 0.217 0.251 0.281 0.306 0.327 0.347 0.364 0.378 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.812 0.373 0.211 0.197 0.170 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 1 1.11538553 0.02229895 0.00000000 3.99666572 2 737012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056506 4.11843634 3 737021 1 0.82236743 0.04204786 0.00000000 2.92490053 4 737022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240872 3.07119203 5 737030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045868 3.53036785 6 737041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066227 2.98899579 7 737042 1 0.90485179 0.02206552 0.00000000 3.37576938 8 737051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053751 3.44748926 9 737052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118081 3.31382465 10 737060 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00270533 2.98070788 11 737071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00219349 3.82250977 12 737072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062822 3.77691555 13 737081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00344295 3.24143910 14 737082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00269283 3.40749931 15 737091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117510 3.48961258 16 737092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044255 3.56974936 17 737101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00563022 3.20420361 18 737102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00346120 3.65116334 19 737111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00234739 2.91076851 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00147688 2.93918610 21 737121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00179988 3.54060340 22 737122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219844 3.76628804 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.094 0.822 3.639 0.053 0.714 2 737012 1696 1961 266 1.000 0.130 0.367 2.689 0.066 0.785 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.078 1.285 5.669 0.046 0.709 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.087 0.647 5.028 0.042 0.783 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.046 0.200 3.439 0.044 0.284 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.077 0.220 3.620 0.041 0.775 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.101 1.038 4.400 0.047 0.801 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.054 0.326 3.261 0.034 0.650 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.081 1.152 4.355 0.040 0.767 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.082 0.869 3.561 0.053 0.638 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.060 -0.148 3.908 0.037 0.676 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.064 0.535 2.678 0.028 0.808 13 737081 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.114 1.023 5.552 0.037 0.886 14 737082 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.101 0.508 3.657 0.040 0.830 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.082 0.294 3.407 0.047 0.720 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.060 0.086 3.532 0.039 0.643 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.067 0.965 5.434 0.049 0.510 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.069 0.476 4.454 0.043 0.642 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.060 0.188 2.918 0.047 0.487 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.057 0.358 3.289 0.044 0.498 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.051 -0.016 3.701 0.033 0.633 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.062 0.248 3.043 0.036 0.695 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.076 0.520 3.874 0.043 0.679 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.022 0.401 0.890 0.008 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.073 0.421 3.630 0.042 0.702 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.028 0.649 1.111 0.009 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.046 -0.148 2.678 0.028 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.060 0.220 3.289 0.037 0.638 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.087 0.869 4.400 0.047 0.783 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.130 1.285 5.669 0.066 0.886 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 737012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 737021 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 737022 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 737030 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 737041 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 737042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 737051 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 737052 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 737060 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 737071 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 737072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 737081 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 737082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 737091 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 737092 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 737101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 737102 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 737111 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 737121 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 737122 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.083 0.866 3.542 0.053 0.640 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.999 0.102 0.617 3.049 0.066 0.655 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.054 -0.048 3.627 0.046 0.420 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.070 0.731 5.405 0.042 0.689 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.044 0.182 3.272 0.044 0.183 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.048 0.085 3.526 0.041 0.439 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.082 1.356 6.722 0.047 0.708 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.042 -0.150 4.411 0.034 0.437 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.049 1.027 4.933 0.040 0.428 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.074 1.099 3.852 0.053 0.554 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.043 0.483 3.613 0.037 0.417 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.047 0.401 3.232 0.028 0.670 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.066 1.421 8.587 0.037 0.706 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.999 0.067 0.547 3.716 0.040 0.655 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.062 -0.217 3.977 0.047 0.516 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.055 -0.125 3.634 0.039 0.583 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.053 0.785 5.408 0.049 0.248 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.059 0.212 3.962 0.043 0.537 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.053 0.088 3.137 0.047 0.355 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.051 0.258 3.442 0.044 0.369 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.047 -0.022 3.852 0.033 0.580 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.047 0.207 3.356 0.036 0.493 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.059 0.446 4.193 0.043 0.513 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.015 0.489 1.329 0.008 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.054 0.330 3.675 0.042 0.526 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.019 0.700 0.969 0.009 0.235 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.999 0.042 -0.217 3.049 0.028 0.183 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.047 0.085 3.442 0.037 0.420 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.067 0.785 4.411 0.047 0.655 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.102 1.421 8.587 0.066 0.708 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.225 0.119 0.008 -0.034 2.606 -0.067 0.522 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 737012 AND 737111 170 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.522 SERIES 737030 AND 737092 121 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR -0.252 0.004 0.172 0.199 0.206 0.273 0.376 0.295 0.258 0.200 SDEV 0.000 0.290 0.284 0.233 0.228 0.185 0.197 0.237 0.197 0.221 SERR 0.000 0.167 0.116 0.044 0.031 0.021 0.017 0.019 0.014 0.015 EPS -1.062 0.020 0.605 0.727 0.782 0.858 0.914 0.893 0.882 0.846 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.246 SDEV 0.193 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.878 NSS 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.996 0.036 -0.010 3.152 0.031 0.391 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.246 0.171 -0.116 111 219 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.63 1.01 1.11 1.74 6.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.65 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.390 0.386 0.334 0.331 0.235 0.065 0.162 0.080 0.033 0.029 PACF 0.390 0.276 0.150 0.132 -0.005 -0.191 0.068 -0.015 -0.043 0.030 95% C.L. 0.110 0.126 0.139 0.149 0.157 0.162 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.252 0.219 0.202 0.118 0.141 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.399 0.420 0.371 0.311 0.234 0.089 0.195 0.060 0.021 0.031 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.399 2 0.276 0.310 3 0.222 0.262 0.173 4 0.210 0.245 0.159 0.066 5 0.212 0.248 0.164 0.070 -0.021 6 0.208 0.260 0.190 0.111 0.014 -0.163 7 0.225 0.258 0.179 0.091 -0.013 -0.185 0.104 8 0.231 0.249 0.178 0.096 -0.004 -0.171 0.116 -0.052 9 0.228 0.256 0.168 0.096 0.002 -0.160 0.131 -0.038 -0.061 10 0.229 0.256 0.166 0.098 0.002 -0.162 0.129 -0.042 -0.065 0.015 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1453.91 1398.56 1367.19 1359.14 1359.69 1361.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1354.69 1353.08 1354.18 1354.95 1356.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.222 0.262 0.173 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 135.71 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.222 0.312 0.301 0.187 0.174 0.140 0.109 0.091 0.073 0.0590 0.048 0.039 0.031 0.025 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.0072 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 737011 3 0.443 0.489 0.172 0.080 2 737012 3 0.479 0.491 0.100 0.188 3 737021 3 0.245 0.302 0.172 0.133 4 737022 3 0.495 0.561 0.187 0.001 5 737030 3 0.066 0.151 0.150 0.026 6 737041 3 0.201 0.404 0.051 0.057 7 737042 3 0.522 0.571 0.148 0.057 8 737051 3 0.216 0.359 0.143 0.051 9 737052 3 0.199 0.380 0.093 0.031 10 737060 3 0.366 0.415 0.106 0.183 11 737071 3 0.225 0.313 0.175 0.091 12 737072 3 0.539 0.404 0.350 0.050 13 737081 3 0.535 0.530 0.261 -0.010 14 737082 3 0.486 0.476 0.272 0.011 15 737091 3 0.362 0.300 0.276 0.147 16 737092 3 0.400 0.417 0.117 0.207 17 737101 3 0.095 0.203 0.091 0.133 18 737102 3 0.346 0.430 0.230 -0.003 19 737111 3 0.237 0.199 0.304 0.121 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 737112 3 0.229 0.230 0.228 0.164 21 737121 3 0.387 0.427 0.215 0.061 22 737122 3 0.297 0.359 0.187 0.105 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.335 0.382 0.183 0.086 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.143 0.118 0.077 0.066 MEDIAN 3 0.354 0.404 0.174 0.070 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.253 0.174 0.113 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.066 0.151 0.051 -0.010 LOWER HINGE 3 0.225 0.302 0.117 0.031 UPPER HINGE 3 0.479 0.476 0.230 0.133 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.539 0.571 0.350 0.207 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.062 0.542 3.402 0.067 -0.001 2 737012 1696 1961 266 1.000 0.074 0.118 3.013 0.082 0.003 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.047 -0.272 3.780 0.052 -0.018 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.050 0.836 7.198 0.053 -0.002 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.042 0.189 3.406 0.047 -0.003 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.043 0.074 3.687 0.050 -0.002 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.057 1.220 9.584 0.062 -0.002 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.037 0.408 4.216 0.040 -0.001 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.044 0.903 4.536 0.047 -0.003 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.060 0.751 4.635 0.064 0.024 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.038 0.504 4.406 0.043 0.006 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.033 -0.019 3.618 0.034 0.007 13 737081 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.045 0.924 7.291 0.048 -0.001 14 737082 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.048 0.508 4.676 0.051 -0.005 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.050 -0.287 5.608 0.054 -0.008 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.043 -0.140 3.514 0.048 0.004 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.051 1.360 8.339 0.053 0.005 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.048 -0.208 3.681 0.052 -0.016 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.046 0.058 3.880 0.051 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.045 0.300 3.100 0.049 0.002 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.037 0.059 3.555 0.040 -0.005 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.040 0.273 4.520 0.043 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.047 0.368 4.711 0.051 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.009 0.473 1.793 0.010 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.046 0.286 4.048 0.050 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.008 0.693 1.121 0.006 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.033 -0.287 3.013 0.034 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.042 0.058 3.555 0.047 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.050 0.751 4.676 0.053 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.074 1.360 9.584 0.082 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.260 0.128 0.008 -0.088 2.584 -0.025 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 737060 AND 737102 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 737111 AND 737112 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.179 0.165 0.153 0.292 0.303 0.332 0.411 0.365 0.247 0.205 SDEV 0.000 0.115 0.213 0.161 0.148 0.161 0.161 0.131 0.184 0.176 SERR 0.000 0.066 0.087 0.031 0.020 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.358 0.477 0.571 0.815 0.858 0.889 0.925 0.919 0.877 0.850 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.249 SDEV 0.166 SERR 0.011 EPS 0.879 NSS 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.031 0.249 4.311 0.037 -0.188 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.301 0.194 -0.155 114 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.70 1.00 1.13 1.83 16.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.73 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.187 -0.048 -0.005 0.107 0.045 -0.169 0.109 -0.010 -0.061 -0.013 PACF -0.187 -0.086 -0.033 0.100 0.090 -0.137 0.061 -0.006 -0.074 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.110 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.116 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.043 -0.204 -0.086 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.011 0.021 0.102 0.044 -0.142 0.078 -0.018 -0.069 -0.028 PACF 0.004 0.011 0.021 0.102 0.044 -0.146 0.076 -0.028 -0.077 0.000 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.112 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.011 0.003 0.011 0.021 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.036 -0.052 3.105 0.030 0.431 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.430 0.454 0.392 0.325 0.253 0.087 0.160 0.053 -0.004 -0.002 PACF 0.430 0.330 0.164 0.048 -0.022 -0.192 0.057 -0.030 -0.064 0.009 95% C.L. 0.110 0.129 0.147 0.159 0.167 0.172 0.172 0.174 0.174 0.174 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.296 0.234 0.283 0.165 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES