RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK010L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK010L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 737 1 Eureka Summit WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 737 2 United States of America White Spruce 960 6150-14720 1654 1983 - 737 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 737011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1659 1663 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 737021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1779 1783 / 1979 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 737041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1876 1880 / 1916 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 737042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1699 1702 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 737051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1929 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 737072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 737081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 737082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 737091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1794 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 737101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 737102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1819 1823 / 1977 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.086 0.050 1.650 6.999 0.251 0.698 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.140 0.088 1.401 6.120 0.360 0.601 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.076 0.026 1.973 11.775 0.240 0.342 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.077 0.023 0.111 3.834 0.234 0.425 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.088 0.024 0.646 3.515 0.257 0.151 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.093 0.040 0.980 4.344 0.245 0.713 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.104 0.037 2.170 10.857 0.238 0.472 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.082 0.029 2.501 13.570 0.224 0.580 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.108 0.037 0.500 3.955 0.239 0.512 10 737060 1876 1983 108 0.184 0.071 1.537 6.969 0.342 0.242 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.091 0.034 1.735 6.467 0.256 0.453 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.081 0.035 1.413 4.738 0.212 0.794 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.099 0.070 3.166 16.929 0.233 0.755 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.108 0.084 4.108 30.226 0.257 0.627 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.128 0.048 1.602 7.598 0.253 0.454 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.087 0.029 1.255 5.680 0.250 0.418 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.059 0.022 0.768 7.030 0.201 0.730 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.073 0.023 0.807 3.741 0.200 0.603 19 737111 1792 1983 192 0.153 0.061 1.310 5.142 0.303 0.354 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 0.154 0.064 1.628 6.006 0.276 0.416 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.116 0.040 1.039 4.139 0.220 0.560 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.120 0.057 1.318 7.577 0.228 0.681 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1654 TO 1983 330 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 214 0.105 0.045 1.528 8.055 0.251 0.526 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.031 0.020 0.890 6.035 0.040 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.096 0.038 1.407 6.293 0.243 0.536 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 81 0.037 0.032 0.755 3.254 0.029 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.059 0.022 0.111 3.515 0.200 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 178 0.082 0.029 0.980 4.344 0.228 0.418 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.120 0.061 1.735 7.598 0.257 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 326 0.184 0.088 4.108 30.226 0.360 0.794 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.326 0.177 0.012 -0.192 2.713 -0.148 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.148 SERIES 737042 AND 737101 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR -0.041 0.286 0.152 0.238 0.177 0.212 0.171 0.201 0.197 0.257 SDEV 0.000 0.163 0.155 0.184 0.210 0.174 0.185 0.201 0.193 0.226 SERR 0.000 0.094 0.063 0.035 0.028 0.020 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.015 EPS -0.111 0.649 0.570 0.769 0.748 0.813 0.785 0.833 0.841 0.884 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.121 SDEV 0.205 SERR 0.013 EPS 0.751 NSS 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.108 0.034 1.072 4.310 0.160 0.683 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.551 0.366 0.001 143 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.78 1.54 1.00 1.25 2.79 40.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.14 0.61 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 224. 76. 108. 183. 259. 330. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.681 0.651 0.586 0.552 0.579 0.592 0.584 0.565 0.564 0.592 PACF 0.681 0.349 0.127 0.088 0.193 0.173 0.090 0.045 0.082 0.156 95% C.L. 0.110 0.153 0.183 0.205 0.222 0.240 0.257 0.272 0.286 0.299 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.583 0.311 0.231 0.037 -0.032 0.110 0.150 0.099 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037497 0.14811304 2 737012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068642 0.23175004 3 737021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011927 0.08988380 4 737022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006372 0.08373334 5 737030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001605 0.08728512 6 737041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032764 0.14135687 7 737042 1 0.06499961 0.00227345 0.00000000 0.05869730 8 737051 1 0.11972448 0.14463806 0.00000000 0.07794110 9 737052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024195 0.13012791 10 737060 1 0.14023645 0.11285421 0.00000000 0.17292762 11 737071 1 0.08097180 0.03893723 0.00000000 0.07437135 12 737072 1 0.11095490 0.01024685 0.00000000 0.02270404 13 737081 1 0.29822484 0.04124385 0.00000000 0.06934038 14 737082 1 0.21995607 0.01483648 0.00000000 0.04994298 15 737091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035722 0.16998380 16 737092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023755 0.11360361 17 737101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040819 0.08585514 18 737102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010545 0.08246065 19 737111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068535 0.21879254 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 1 0.15722308 0.01138593 0.00000000 0.09469805 21 737121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032714 0.16087413 22 737122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049603 0.18432881 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.015 0.365 1.216 5.195 0.252 0.403 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.982 0.491 1.075 4.306 0.359 0.458 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.999 0.335 1.689 8.708 0.240 0.356 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.301 0.271 3.808 0.234 0.444 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.275 0.667 3.554 0.255 0.150 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.288 0.620 3.484 0.246 0.420 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.327 1.532 7.428 0.237 0.459 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.287 1.002 4.563 0.223 0.377 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.998 0.326 0.792 4.423 0.238 0.448 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.362 1.365 5.741 0.339 0.162 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.287 1.205 5.147 0.254 0.255 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.001 0.284 1.023 4.459 0.214 0.484 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.349 0.781 6.896 0.235 0.508 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.999 0.475 1.365 7.221 0.262 0.573 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.999 0.308 1.618 7.929 0.249 0.300 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.263 0.952 4.101 0.249 0.215 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.996 0.284 0.693 5.260 0.202 0.534 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.999 0.304 1.120 4.539 0.199 0.566 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.002 0.301 1.421 5.686 0.302 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.306 1.581 8.028 0.275 0.126 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.255 1.300 6.014 0.219 0.293 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.991 0.336 1.913 13.726 0.228 0.496 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.999 0.323 1.146 5.919 0.251 0.364 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.006 0.060 0.406 2.328 0.039 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.305 1.163 5.227 0.243 0.411 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.001 0.048 0.630 2.798 0.027 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.982 0.255 0.271 3.484 0.199 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.999 0.287 0.792 4.423 0.228 0.255 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.336 1.421 7.221 0.255 0.484 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.015 0.491 1.913 13.726 0.359 0.573 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 737012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 737021 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 737022 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 737030 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 737041 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 737042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 737051 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 737052 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 737060 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 737071 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 737072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 737081 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 737082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 737091 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 737092 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 737101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 737102 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 737111 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 737121 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 737122 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.998 0.338 1.270 6.201 0.252 0.347 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.984 0.441 1.182 4.489 0.360 0.333 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.992 0.262 1.869 9.668 0.240 0.093 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.992 0.256 0.303 4.334 0.234 0.255 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.998 0.237 0.393 3.548 0.256 -0.029 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.997 0.271 0.694 3.995 0.246 0.338 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.997 0.310 1.689 8.416 0.238 0.393 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.997 0.253 1.178 4.735 0.223 0.238 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.997 0.277 1.042 4.546 0.239 0.225 10 737060 1876 1983 108 0.997 0.346 1.314 5.713 0.340 0.107 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.998 0.270 1.270 5.251 0.255 0.172 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.994 0.240 0.941 4.438 0.213 0.308 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.996 0.314 1.850 12.420 0.236 0.295 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.984 0.386 1.749 9.680 0.263 0.413 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.997 0.282 1.457 7.283 0.249 0.204 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.998 0.248 0.906 3.922 0.249 0.123 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.995 0.251 0.875 5.362 0.203 0.369 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.996 0.236 0.782 3.340 0.200 0.351 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.298 1.502 6.090 0.302 -0.045 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.300 1.494 7.431 0.275 0.103 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.999 0.249 1.256 5.966 0.219 0.265 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.997 0.298 1.353 9.563 0.228 0.394 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.996 0.289 1.199 6.200 0.251 0.239 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.004 0.052 0.429 2.423 0.039 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.997 0.274 1.263 5.538 0.243 0.260 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.003 0.058 0.588 2.993 0.028 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.984 0.236 0.303 3.340 0.200 -0.045 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.995 0.251 0.906 4.438 0.228 0.123 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.998 0.310 1.494 7.431 0.256 0.347 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.441 1.869 12.420 0.360 0.413 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.144 0.105 0.007 0.198 3.145 -0.118 0.508 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.118 SERIES 737012 AND 737101 111 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.508 SERIES 737111 AND 737112 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.003 0.241 0.192 0.210 0.170 0.168 0.191 0.217 0.185 0.169 SDEV 0.000 0.221 0.139 0.198 0.195 0.162 0.166 0.195 0.170 0.166 SERR 0.000 0.127 0.057 0.037 0.026 0.018 0.014 0.016 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.008 0.594 0.636 0.740 0.739 0.765 0.807 0.846 0.831 0.817 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.095 SDEV 0.183 SERR 0.012 EPS 0.698 NSS 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.968 0.170 0.791 4.185 0.174 0.165 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.541 0.436 -0.176 122 208 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.36 1.01 1.13 2.48 20.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.64 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.165 0.186 0.127 0.056 0.047 -0.009 0.058 -0.015 0.008 0.060 PACF 0.165 0.163 0.079 -0.001 0.006 -0.036 0.055 -0.027 0.001 0.060 95% C.L. 0.110 0.113 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.059 0.125 0.153 0.080 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.103 0.205 0.142 0.129 0.074 0.013 0.041 -0.042 -0.056 0.066 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.103 2 0.083 0.197 3 0.061 0.188 0.110 4 0.053 0.174 0.105 0.075 5 0.052 0.172 0.103 0.074 0.014 6 0.053 0.176 0.108 0.082 0.016 -0.047 7 0.053 0.176 0.107 0.082 0.016 -0.047 0.004 8 0.053 0.173 0.108 0.087 0.022 -0.036 0.007 -0.062 9 0.049 0.173 0.106 0.088 0.028 -0.029 0.019 -0.058 -0.066 10 0.055 0.179 0.104 0.091 0.025 -0.038 0.009 -0.075 -0.071 0.095 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2384.18 2382.66 2371.63 2369.63 2369.78 2371.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2372.99 2374.98 2375.73 2376.27 2375.29 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.061 0.188 0.110 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.04 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.061 0.191 0.133 0.051 0.049 0.027 0.016 0.011 0.007 0.0044 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 737011 3 0.180 0.239 0.198 0.120 2 737012 3 0.200 0.202 0.247 0.137 3 737021 3 0.026 0.087 0.054 0.108 4 737022 3 0.129 0.181 0.182 0.112 5 737030 3 0.071 -0.022 0.256 -0.001 6 737041 3 0.165 0.249 0.210 0.063 7 737042 3 0.173 0.332 0.116 0.058 8 737051 3 0.068 0.220 0.074 0.012 9 737052 3 0.062 0.213 0.017 0.101 10 737060 3 0.025 0.107 -0.010 0.101 11 737071 3 0.095 0.136 0.262 -0.031 12 737072 3 0.130 0.240 0.148 0.092 13 737081 3 0.154 0.212 0.193 0.096 14 737082 3 0.199 0.334 0.166 0.034 15 737091 3 0.100 0.162 0.128 0.089 16 737092 3 0.054 0.094 0.119 0.107 17 737101 3 0.158 0.327 0.146 -0.031 18 737102 3 0.234 0.226 0.256 0.101 19 737111 3 0.006 -0.045 0.009 0.033 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 737112 3 0.021 0.093 0.051 0.067 21 737121 3 0.139 0.217 0.174 0.009 22 737122 3 0.221 0.298 0.218 0.036 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.119 0.186 0.146 0.064 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.070 0.103 0.084 0.050 MEDIAN 3 0.129 0.212 0.157 0.078 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.111 0.133 0.136 0.069 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.006 -0.045 -0.010 -0.031 LOWER HINGE 3 0.062 0.107 0.074 0.033 UPPER HINGE 3 0.173 0.240 0.210 0.101 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.234 0.334 0.262 0.137 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.306 1.573 8.032 0.286 0.002 2 737012 1696 1961 266 1.000 0.396 1.045 4.157 0.396 -0.010 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.258 1.876 9.467 0.252 -0.006 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.241 0.632 4.737 0.255 -0.014 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.229 0.412 3.513 0.246 -0.004 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.248 0.613 4.304 0.277 0.002 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.282 1.784 11.494 0.286 0.001 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.245 1.181 4.723 0.248 -0.001 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.268 1.128 5.003 0.266 -0.002 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.342 1.293 5.563 0.353 0.006 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.257 0.953 4.677 0.270 -0.002 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.224 0.925 4.804 0.242 0.003 13 737081 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.292 2.735 19.636 0.262 -0.012 14 737082 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.345 2.187 14.872 0.308 -0.001 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.272 1.384 7.245 0.273 -0.017 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.243 0.889 3.976 0.265 -0.012 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.231 0.816 5.766 0.236 0.002 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.211 0.607 3.325 0.230 -0.016 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.298 1.472 6.055 0.297 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.297 1.511 7.401 0.289 -0.004 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.237 1.087 5.301 0.246 -0.002 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.266 1.478 8.907 0.266 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.272 1.254 6.953 0.275 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.045 0.559 3.993 0.039 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.262 1.154 5.432 0.266 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.056 0.622 3.355 0.038 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.211 0.412 3.325 0.230 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.241 0.889 4.677 0.248 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.297 1.511 8.032 0.286 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.396 2.735 19.636 0.396 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.156 0.089 0.006 0.558 3.873 -0.033 0.521 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.033 SERIES 737060 AND 737091 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.521 SERIES 737111 AND 737112 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.096 0.348 0.187 0.208 0.167 0.155 0.200 0.250 0.191 0.169 SDEV 0.000 0.141 0.161 0.203 0.201 0.161 0.160 0.170 0.160 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.081 0.066 0.038 0.027 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.213 0.711 0.628 0.737 0.735 0.748 0.816 0.868 0.836 0.817 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.111 SDEV 0.155 SERR 0.010 EPS 0.734 NSS 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.980 0.157 0.846 4.767 0.183 -0.048 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.537 0.460 -0.229 128 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.02 1.00 1.10 2.12 97.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.41 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.048 -0.014 -0.025 -0.030 -0.004 -0.023 0.064 -0.038 -0.033 0.094 PACF -0.048 -0.016 -0.027 -0.033 -0.008 -0.026 0.060 -0.034 -0.036 0.093 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.032 -0.007 -0.023 0.062 -0.033 -0.030 0.095 PACF -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.032 -0.007 -0.024 0.062 -0.035 -0.030 0.094 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.979 0.161 0.818 4.361 0.174 0.096 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.095 0.197 0.133 0.028 0.050 0.000 0.074 -0.004 -0.008 0.077 PACF 0.095 0.190 0.105 -0.027 0.005 -0.019 0.070 -0.016 -0.031 0.071 95% C.L. 0.110 0.111 0.115 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.056 0.057 0.182 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES