RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK010W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK010W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 737 1 Eureka Summit WIDTH_RING PCGL - 737 2 United States of America White Spruce 960 6150-14720 1654 1983 - 737 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 737011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 737042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1699 1702 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.381 0.241 0.637 2.599 0.204 0.925 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.541 0.272 0.270 3.081 0.235 0.827 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.572 0.230 0.013 2.304 0.165 0.864 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.485 0.185 -0.066 3.008 0.208 0.740 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.662 0.204 1.714 6.619 0.151 0.767 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.567 0.257 -0.053 1.891 0.122 0.938 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.610 0.270 0.695 2.738 0.134 0.938 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.608 0.213 0.090 2.852 0.179 0.778 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.683 0.276 -0.345 2.609 0.183 0.856 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.382 0.446 0.848 3.918 0.269 0.429 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.700 0.272 1.280 4.356 0.157 0.853 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.497 0.288 1.809 5.488 0.176 0.925 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.640 0.346 0.598 3.257 0.149 0.900 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.654 0.360 0.280 2.464 0.156 0.919 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.845 0.266 0.187 2.435 0.151 0.809 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.666 0.201 0.836 3.477 0.157 0.790 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.368 0.165 0.345 2.250 0.221 0.824 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.371 0.170 0.749 3.077 0.176 0.895 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.221 0.456 0.589 2.865 0.193 0.787 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.310 0.480 0.718 3.698 0.190 0.788 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.671 0.205 -0.089 3.101 0.148 0.821 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.664 0.315 -0.014 1.983 0.162 0.912 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1654 TO 1983 330 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.686 0.278 0.504 3.185 0.177 0.831 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.278 0.090 0.569 1.120 0.035 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.647 0.268 0.467 2.936 0.170 0.840 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.142 0.110 0.736 1.012 0.042 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.368 0.165 -0.345 1.891 0.122 0.429 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.541 0.205 0.013 2.464 0.151 0.788 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.683 0.315 0.749 3.477 0.193 0.912 MAXIMUM VALUE 326 1.382 0.480 1.809 6.619 0.269 0.938 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.574 0.243 0.016 -0.972 3.034 -0.116 0.931 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.116 SERIES 737021 AND 737042 239 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.931 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.347 0.390 0.454 0.167 0.286 0.554 0.340 0.418 0.415 0.597 SDEV 0.000 0.197 0.280 0.322 0.229 0.182 0.275 0.253 0.330 0.252 SERR 0.000 0.114 0.114 0.061 0.031 0.021 0.024 0.020 0.024 0.017 EPS 0.577 0.747 0.860 0.681 0.847 0.953 0.901 0.934 0.939 0.970 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.400 SDEV 0.245 SERR 0.016 EPS 0.936 NSS 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.622 0.189 -0.055 1.991 0.130 0.864 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.271 0.124 0.167 169 161 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.01 1.01 1.23 2.24 62.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.67 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 224. 76. 108. 183. 259. 330. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.861 0.834 0.820 0.778 0.765 0.739 0.709 0.702 0.671 0.653 PACF 0.861 0.355 0.225 0.013 0.083 0.008 -0.017 0.066 -0.032 0.011 95% C.L. 0.110 0.174 0.217 0.251 0.279 0.304 0.325 0.343 0.360 0.375 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.798 0.446 0.236 0.255 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186122 0.68956769 2 737012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254534 0.88055414 3 737021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012435 0.55658484 4 737022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166737 0.67334640 5 737030 1 0.86254984 0.08137917 0.00000000 0.57840449 6 737041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00268250 0.97038239 7 737042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069146 0.72592056 8 737051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076712 0.67827958 9 737052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00278244 0.93893534 10 737060 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029485 1.39847696 11 737071 1 1.01260293 0.05249149 0.00000000 0.55038393 12 737072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348224 0.75781244 13 737081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00359833 1.08963048 14 737082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00331105 1.08398855 15 737091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296813 1.19384027 16 737092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00219770 0.91152990 17 737101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00376746 0.62016404 18 737102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00192610 0.56033283 19 737111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00650268 1.84813321 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00618115 1.95935547 21 737121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00185492 0.92345059 22 737122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00341673 1.10780370 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.987 0.391 0.538 2.450 0.202 0.810 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.982 0.409 0.705 3.887 0.234 0.731 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.399 -0.040 2.322 0.164 0.857 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.992 0.333 0.290 3.177 0.206 0.703 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.186 0.540 3.478 0.149 0.521 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.988 0.191 0.230 2.891 0.122 0.701 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.997 0.406 0.567 2.876 0.133 0.923 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.999 0.354 0.330 3.029 0.178 0.780 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.987 0.366 0.018 2.756 0.182 0.822 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.323 0.859 3.930 0.266 0.426 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.999 0.222 0.054 2.306 0.156 0.585 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.012 0.430 0.785 3.145 0.176 0.855 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.999 0.427 1.875 8.126 0.149 0.858 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.982 0.453 0.936 3.280 0.156 0.902 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.999 0.212 0.265 2.807 0.150 0.616 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.203 0.452 2.898 0.156 0.541 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.002 0.214 0.173 3.046 0.219 0.224 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.996 0.344 1.260 5.319 0.175 0.809 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.002 0.227 0.342 2.550 0.192 0.477 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.001 0.227 0.552 3.042 0.189 0.456 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.995 0.222 -0.072 3.989 0.148 0.666 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.979 0.272 -0.029 2.501 0.161 0.737 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.995 0.310 0.483 3.355 0.176 0.682 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.008 0.092 0.467 1.267 0.034 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.999 0.328 0.397 3.035 0.170 0.717 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.013 0.178 0.532 0.723 0.042 0.281 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.979 0.186 -0.072 2.306 0.122 0.224 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.988 0.222 0.173 2.756 0.150 0.541 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.399 0.705 3.478 0.192 0.822 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.012 0.453 1.875 8.126 0.266 0.923 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 737011 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 737012 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 737021 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 737022 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 737030 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 737041 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 737042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 737051 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 737052 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 737060 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 737071 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 737072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 737081 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 737082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 737091 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 737092 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 737101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 737102 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 737111 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 737112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 737121 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 737122 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 0.990 0.342 0.664 3.376 0.202 0.749 2 737012 1696 1961 266 0.983 0.327 0.718 4.078 0.234 0.580 3 737021 1745 1983 239 0.976 0.254 0.515 4.499 0.164 0.681 4 737022 1759 1983 225 0.993 0.277 0.952 4.484 0.206 0.584 5 737030 1863 1983 121 0.999 0.159 0.434 3.127 0.149 0.340 6 737041 1684 1983 300 0.999 0.172 0.134 3.246 0.122 0.611 7 737042 1654 1983 330 0.990 0.224 0.067 3.075 0.133 0.720 8 737051 1801 1983 183 0.990 0.255 1.308 5.740 0.178 0.592 9 737052 1801 1983 183 0.991 0.211 0.294 2.789 0.182 0.489 10 737060 1876 1983 108 0.993 0.285 0.684 3.983 0.266 0.274 11 737071 1859 1983 125 0.997 0.188 0.470 2.553 0.155 0.420 12 737072 1835 1983 149 0.976 0.280 0.769 3.919 0.174 0.706 13 737081 1735 1983 249 0.982 0.342 1.851 9.374 0.148 0.815 14 737082 1725 1983 259 0.976 0.360 1.321 6.079 0.156 0.815 15 737091 1750 1983 234 0.997 0.194 0.206 2.765 0.150 0.546 16 737092 1762 1983 222 0.999 0.196 0.440 2.940 0.156 0.507 17 737101 1851 1983 133 0.999 0.207 0.172 3.215 0.219 0.180 18 737102 1788 1983 196 0.989 0.281 0.872 4.159 0.175 0.710 19 737111 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.222 0.352 2.610 0.192 0.465 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.223 0.473 2.907 0.189 0.437 21 737121 1713 1983 271 0.998 0.190 -0.033 3.221 0.148 0.551 22 737122 1725 1983 259 0.996 0.220 0.148 3.258 0.161 0.557 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.991 0.246 0.582 3.882 0.175 0.560 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.008 0.059 0.464 1.545 0.034 0.166 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.993 0.223 0.471 3.252 0.169 0.568 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.009 0.086 0.562 1.219 0.042 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.976 0.159 -0.033 2.553 0.122 0.180 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 0.989 0.196 0.206 2.940 0.150 0.465 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.999 0.281 0.769 4.159 0.192 0.706 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.360 1.851 9.374 0.266 0.815 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.362 0.164 0.011 0.079 3.437 -0.178 0.878 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 737082 AND 737121 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.878 SERIES 737081 AND 737082 249 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.185 0.336 0.516 0.221 0.300 0.507 0.422 0.474 0.375 0.454 SDEV 0.000 0.041 0.241 0.242 0.228 0.208 0.263 0.235 0.263 0.198 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.098 0.046 0.031 0.024 0.023 0.019 0.019 0.013 EPS 0.368 0.700 0.887 0.752 0.856 0.943 0.928 0.947 0.928 0.948 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.428 SDEV 0.214 SERR 0.014 EPS 0.943 NSS 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.974 0.154 -0.079 2.795 0.137 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.304 0.143 0.045 104 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.55 1.00 1.10 1.65 9.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.74 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.432 0.405 0.335 0.263 0.248 0.142 0.161 0.128 0.098 0.100 PACF 0.432 0.268 0.122 0.030 0.055 -0.064 0.038 0.015 -0.006 0.018 95% C.L. 0.110 0.129 0.144 0.153 0.158 0.163 0.164 0.166 0.167 0.168 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.260 0.281 0.234 0.123 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.443 0.441 0.395 0.328 0.295 0.148 0.170 0.131 0.086 0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.443 2 0.308 0.305 3 0.256 0.252 0.170 4 0.247 0.238 0.156 0.057 5 0.245 0.232 0.147 0.048 0.038 6 0.250 0.238 0.167 0.079 0.071 -0.137 7 0.251 0.238 0.166 0.078 0.069 -0.139 0.008 8 0.251 0.240 0.165 0.077 0.067 -0.142 0.005 0.013 9 0.251 0.240 0.163 0.078 0.068 -0.140 0.008 0.016 -0.012 10 0.251 0.240 0.164 0.073 0.070 -0.137 0.013 0.023 -0.005 -0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2527.88 2457.69 2427.55 2419.85 2420.78 2422.31 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2418.08 2420.06 2422.00 2423.95 2425.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.256 0.252 0.170 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 29.22 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 141.28 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.256 0.318 0.316 0.205 0.186 0.153 0.121 0.101 0.083 0.0674 0.055 0.045 0.037 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.0091 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0012 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 737011 3 0.646 0.411 0.386 0.071 2 737012 3 0.390 0.420 0.205 0.084 3 737021 3 0.526 0.496 0.184 0.119 4 737022 3 0.416 0.373 0.198 0.185 5 737030 3 0.193 0.228 0.198 0.145 6 737041 3 0.440 0.425 0.299 0.013 7 737042 3 0.536 0.605 0.075 0.107 8 737051 3 0.380 0.471 0.128 0.101 9 737052 3 0.275 0.384 0.156 0.084 10 737060 3 0.153 0.189 0.140 0.210 11 737071 3 0.281 0.243 0.304 0.113 12 737072 3 0.604 0.346 0.341 0.171 13 737081 3 0.736 0.622 0.249 0.017 14 737082 3 0.748 0.574 0.150 0.185 15 737091 3 0.317 0.483 0.087 0.056 16 737092 3 0.336 0.333 0.160 0.213 17 737101 3 0.039 0.167 0.083 -0.012 18 737102 3 0.550 0.516 0.207 0.084 19 737111 3 0.248 0.388 0.184 -0.017 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 737112 3 0.218 0.352 0.156 0.052 21 737121 3 0.384 0.353 0.224 0.157 22 737122 3 0.441 0.275 0.283 0.227 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.403 0.393 0.200 0.107 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.186 0.127 0.083 0.073 MEDIAN 3 0.387 0.386 0.191 0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.261 0.150 0.099 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.039 0.167 0.075 -0.017 LOWER HINGE 3 0.275 0.333 0.150 0.056 UPPER HINGE 3 0.536 0.483 0.249 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.748 0.622 0.386 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 737011 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.204 0.030 3.133 0.233 0.006 2 737012 1696 1961 266 1.000 0.257 0.457 4.299 0.278 -0.011 3 737021 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.174 0.432 3.493 0.195 -0.023 4 737022 1759 1983 225 1.000 0.212 0.624 2.995 0.235 -0.010 5 737030 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.143 -0.244 2.825 0.164 0.020 6 737041 1684 1983 300 1.000 0.129 -0.135 3.298 0.144 0.008 7 737042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.152 0.151 3.219 0.165 -0.002 8 737051 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.201 0.705 5.351 0.222 -0.002 9 737052 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.179 0.217 2.617 0.209 -0.003 10 737060 1876 1983 108 1.000 0.262 0.554 3.670 0.293 -0.018 11 737071 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.159 0.562 3.417 0.178 0.004 12 737072 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.177 0.324 3.499 0.201 0.009 13 737081 1735 1983 249 1.000 0.175 1.032 7.180 0.187 0.025 14 737082 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.180 0.302 3.874 0.195 0.023 15 737091 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.160 0.066 3.073 0.180 -0.008 16 737092 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.160 0.309 2.839 0.181 -0.015 17 737101 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.203 0.101 2.978 0.234 0.000 18 737102 1788 1983 196 1.000 0.189 0.397 3.301 0.218 0.009 19 737111 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.193 0.093 2.651 0.230 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 737112 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.197 0.293 2.929 0.223 0.002 21 737121 1713 1983 271 1.000 0.149 -0.113 3.031 0.173 0.004 22 737122 1725 1983 259 1.000 0.165 -0.194 4.653 0.185 -0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.183 0.271 3.560 0.206 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 64 0.000 0.033 0.317 1.046 0.036 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.178 0.298 3.258 0.198 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 76 0.000 0.042 0.391 0.691 0.050 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 108 1.000 0.129 -0.244 2.617 0.144 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.160 0.066 2.978 0.180 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.201 0.457 3.670 0.230 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 330 1.000 0.262 1.032 7.180 0.293 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.481 0.105 0.007 0.425 3.506 0.210 0.865 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.210 SERIES 737082 AND 737121 259 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.865 SERIES 737111 AND 737112 192 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1679. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. CORR 1. 3. 6. 28. 55. 78. 136. 153. 190. 231. RBAR 0.433 0.481 0.431 0.382 0.392 0.487 0.540 0.588 0.530 0.501 SDEV 0.000 0.050 0.152 0.207 0.166 0.107 0.163 0.113 0.119 0.128 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.062 0.039 0.022 0.012 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.661 0.811 0.848 0.868 0.899 0.939 0.954 0.966 0.961 0.957 NSS 2.6 4.6 7.4 10.7 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8 21.6 22.0 YEAR 1935. CORR 231. RBAR 0.487 SDEV 0.129 SERR 0.008 EPS 0.954 NSS 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.994 0.129 -0.045 2.722 0.159 -0.140 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.101 0.021 99 231 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 0.69 1.00 1.11 1.80 7.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.13 0.62 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.140 -0.036 -0.011 -0.015 0.062 -0.089 0.006 0.041 -0.010 0.032 PACF -0.140 -0.056 -0.025 -0.022 0.056 -0.076 -0.013 0.034 -0.001 0.029 95% C.L. 0.110 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.140 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.019 0.047 -0.081 0.002 0.040 -0.001 0.033 PACF 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.019 0.047 -0.082 0.003 0.040 0.000 0.028 95% C.L. 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1654 1983 330 0.992 0.150 0.037 2.931 0.133 0.426 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.424 0.422 0.368 0.247 0.247 0.131 0.140 0.128 0.070 0.066 PACF 0.424 0.295 0.156 -0.023 0.043 -0.074 0.022 0.037 -0.020 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.110 0.128 0.144 0.155 0.160 0.164 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.273 0.251 0.251 0.159 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES