RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK012E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK012E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 698 1 Northway Junction WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 698 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14120 1795 1983 - 698 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 18 698102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1879 1879 / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 2.209 1.407 0.431 2.067 0.305 0.883 2 698012 1918 1983 66 1.580 0.903 0.524 2.226 0.229 0.887 3 698021 1819 1983 165 0.745 0.423 0.767 3.011 0.247 0.860 4 698022 1807 1983 177 0.750 0.365 0.930 4.499 0.242 0.789 5 698031 1795 1982 188 0.567 0.469 1.234 3.884 0.306 0.919 6 698032 1796 1980 185 0.636 0.584 1.593 4.975 0.310 0.891 7 698041 1801 1983 183 0.466 0.301 0.709 2.514 0.232 0.898 8 698042 1800 1983 184 0.514 0.367 0.860 3.026 0.239 0.919 9 698051 1808 1983 176 0.502 0.381 1.273 4.117 0.338 0.859 10 698052 1811 1983 173 0.443 0.338 1.626 6.180 0.379 0.830 11 698061 1799 1983 185 0.553 0.274 1.592 6.208 0.253 0.773 12 698062 1804 1983 180 0.574 0.309 1.555 6.670 0.262 0.785 13 698071 1807 1983 177 0.607 0.357 0.758 2.985 0.312 0.812 14 698072 1808 1983 176 0.601 0.308 0.911 3.421 0.295 0.767 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.621 0.354 1.155 3.454 0.301 0.787 16 698092 1823 1983 161 0.754 0.350 0.907 3.415 0.295 0.690 17 698101 1808 1983 176 0.395 0.310 0.687 2.359 0.299 0.911 18 698102 1810 1983 174 0.430 0.332 0.677 2.625 0.272 0.914 19 698111 1803 1983 181 0.605 0.281 0.657 2.956 0.282 0.708 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 0.865 0.404 1.634 7.576 0.288 0.720 21 698121 1836 1983 148 0.838 0.378 0.230 2.571 0.275 0.785 22 698122 1835 1983 149 0.736 0.270 0.516 3.369 0.243 0.666 23 698131 1797 1983 187 0.643 0.538 0.913 2.609 0.277 0.920 24 698132 1797 1983 187 0.678 0.661 1.111 3.060 0.312 0.930 25 698141 1820 1983 164 0.658 0.284 0.469 2.665 0.258 0.751 26 698142 1813 1983 171 0.787 0.332 0.780 3.522 0.251 0.741 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1795 TO 1983 189 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.722 0.434 0.942 3.691 0.281 0.823 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.377 0.243 0.408 1.473 0.036 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 0.629 0.355 0.883 3.215 0.279 0.821 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.197 0.114 0.557 1.491 0.054 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.395 0.270 0.230 2.067 0.229 0.666 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.553 0.309 0.677 2.625 0.251 0.767 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 0.750 0.423 1.234 4.117 0.305 0.898 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 2.209 1.407 1.634 7.576 0.379 0.930 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.467 0.277 0.015 -0.770 3.693 -0.605 0.955 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.605 SERIES 698012 AND 698102 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.955 SERIES 698031 AND 698032 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.703 0.767 0.506 0.415 0.454 SDEV 0.163 0.141 0.320 0.269 0.302 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.019 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.982 0.987 0.961 0.947 0.956 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.675 0.355 1.507 6.340 0.220 0.850 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.559 0.210 0.164 81 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.51 1.00 1.12 2.63 9.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 176. 19. 66. 164. 183. 188. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.845 0.740 0.658 0.592 0.548 0.506 0.477 0.436 0.384 0.329 PACF 0.845 0.091 0.043 0.035 0.063 0.017 0.045 -0.029 -0.050 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.145 0.227 0.273 0.305 0.328 0.347 0.362 0.375 0.386 0.394 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.770 0.666 0.234 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 698011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05749588 4.13520288 2 698012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04167916 2.97655487 3 698021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145716 0.62396455 4 698022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027012 0.72624165 5 698031 1 1.74178970 0.03092124 0.00000000 0.27241486 6 698032 1 2.32243896 0.03520617 0.00000000 0.28607443 7 698041 1 0.85149205 0.03530585 0.00000000 0.33706751 8 698042 1 1.18535936 0.02733083 0.00000000 0.28341982 9 698051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219504 0.30772793 10 698052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00192436 0.27541268 11 698061 1 0.89900827 0.03285481 0.00000000 0.40798530 12 698062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00114547 0.47033519 13 698071 1 1.08056760 0.01086463 0.00000000 0.12952052 14 698072 1 0.80647159 0.02133581 0.00000000 0.39392582 15 698091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00159783 0.49125832 16 698092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00216457 0.57858306 17 698101 1 0.87728328 0.03374467 0.00000000 0.25060973 18 698102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029541 0.40015215 19 698111 1 0.57358110 0.01248606 0.00000000 0.37952888 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 698112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043156 0.82665586 21 698121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162512 0.71656370 22 698122 1 0.25034097 0.08104698 0.00000000 0.71587020 23 698131 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 698132 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 698141 1 0.55727619 0.02811723 0.00000000 0.54020208 26 698142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008311 0.78010386 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 0.988 0.386 0.562 2.888 0.298 0.523 2 698012 1918 1983 66 1.061 0.423 2.396 11.679 0.230 0.660 3 698021 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.548 0.586 2.703 0.245 0.840 4 698022 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.485 0.893 4.393 0.240 0.782 5 698031 1795 1982 188 1.002 0.615 1.208 4.565 0.304 0.841 6 698032 1796 1980 185 1.006 0.573 0.626 2.870 0.308 0.809 7 698041 1801 1983 183 0.999 0.607 1.617 6.322 0.231 0.862 8 698042 1800 1983 184 1.002 0.575 1.082 4.550 0.238 0.835 9 698051 1808 1983 176 1.007 0.714 0.972 3.210 0.336 0.840 10 698052 1811 1983 173 1.004 0.696 1.113 4.326 0.377 0.803 11 698061 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.312 0.300 3.324 0.251 0.458 12 698062 1804 1983 180 1.003 0.533 1.439 5.960 0.261 0.764 13 698071 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.447 0.836 4.074 0.310 0.643 14 698072 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.406 0.832 4.030 0.293 0.594 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.997 0.535 0.992 3.207 0.300 0.747 16 698092 1823 1983 161 0.999 0.441 0.844 3.199 0.294 0.645 17 698101 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.735 1.038 3.374 0.299 0.866 18 698102 1810 1983 174 1.001 0.773 0.599 2.356 0.283 0.908 19 698111 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.422 0.778 3.188 0.281 0.638 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.460 1.467 6.728 0.286 0.708 21 698121 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.446 0.157 2.349 0.274 0.768 22 698122 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.365 0.606 3.770 0.241 0.657 23 698131 1797 1983 187 1.004 0.364 0.342 2.742 0.277 0.490 24 698132 1797 1983 187 0.988 0.462 1.432 7.112 0.311 0.673 25 698141 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.391 0.398 2.773 0.256 0.699 26 698142 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.422 0.778 3.511 0.249 0.736 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.002 0.505 0.919 4.200 0.280 0.723 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.013 0.125 0.483 2.016 0.035 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 1.000 0.461 0.840 3.442 0.282 0.742 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.002 0.154 0.514 1.662 0.051 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.988 0.312 0.157 2.349 0.230 0.458 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.422 0.599 2.888 0.249 0.645 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.002 0.575 1.113 4.550 0.300 0.835 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.061 0.773 2.396 11.679 0.377 0.908 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 698011 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 698012 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 698021 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 698022 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 698031 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 698032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 698041 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 698042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 698051 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 698052 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 698061 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 698062 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 698071 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 698072 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 698091 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 698092 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 698101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 698102 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 698111 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 698112 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 698121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 698122 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 698131 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 698132 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 698141 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 698142 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 0.988 0.350 1.069 4.697 0.295 0.399 2 698012 1918 1983 66 0.994 0.273 0.668 3.484 0.228 0.484 3 698021 1819 1983 165 0.965 0.436 0.406 2.545 0.245 0.751 4 698022 1807 1983 177 0.977 0.411 0.772 4.059 0.241 0.706 5 698031 1795 1982 188 0.949 0.447 0.622 3.192 0.303 0.735 6 698032 1796 1980 185 0.955 0.440 0.344 3.090 0.307 0.694 7 698041 1801 1983 183 0.981 0.547 1.750 7.296 0.231 0.841 8 698042 1800 1983 184 0.974 0.402 0.512 3.139 0.238 0.752 9 698051 1808 1983 176 0.947 0.529 0.773 2.994 0.335 0.751 10 698052 1811 1983 173 0.956 0.564 0.936 3.807 0.376 0.705 11 698061 1799 1983 185 0.998 0.304 0.308 3.321 0.251 0.414 12 698062 1804 1983 180 0.988 0.353 0.829 4.577 0.260 0.524 13 698071 1807 1983 177 0.987 0.394 0.561 3.506 0.310 0.547 14 698072 1808 1983 176 0.993 0.373 0.590 3.491 0.293 0.530 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.986 0.380 0.399 2.720 0.300 0.503 16 698092 1823 1983 161 0.984 0.363 0.693 3.431 0.294 0.498 17 698101 1808 1983 176 0.942 0.461 1.256 4.914 0.299 0.721 18 698102 1810 1983 174 0.930 0.408 0.463 2.550 0.284 0.719 19 698111 1803 1983 181 0.995 0.397 0.650 3.117 0.280 0.598 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.448 1.325 6.111 0.286 0.693 21 698121 1836 1983 148 0.979 0.360 -0.264 2.459 0.274 0.659 22 698122 1835 1983 149 0.995 0.328 0.293 3.180 0.241 0.588 23 698131 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.353 0.308 2.789 0.277 0.479 24 698132 1797 1983 187 0.994 0.426 1.043 5.688 0.311 0.612 25 698141 1820 1983 164 0.996 0.375 0.359 2.860 0.256 0.678 26 698142 1813 1983 171 0.990 0.361 0.375 2.729 0.249 0.662 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.979 0.403 0.655 3.683 0.279 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.020 0.069 0.407 1.202 0.035 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 0.987 0.396 0.606 3.257 0.282 0.660 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.029 0.080 0.454 1.200 0.051 0.196 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.930 0.273 -0.264 2.459 0.228 0.399 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.965 0.360 0.375 2.860 0.249 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 0.994 0.440 0.829 4.059 0.300 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 0.998 0.564 1.750 7.296 0.376 0.841 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.552 0.147 0.008 -0.497 3.530 0.059 0.911 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 698041 AND 698132 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.911 SERIES 698051 AND 698052 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.772 0.723 0.507 0.424 0.540 SDEV 0.106 0.123 0.283 0.249 0.212 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.017 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.988 0.984 0.961 0.949 0.968 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.965 0.297 0.319 2.780 0.214 0.610 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.497 0.179 0.072 67 122 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.46 1.00 1.06 1.52 3.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.607 0.483 0.365 0.281 0.202 0.187 0.159 0.035 -0.004 -0.033 PACF 0.607 0.181 0.025 0.007 -0.019 0.057 0.021 -0.161 -0.029 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.145 0.192 0.216 0.229 0.236 0.239 0.242 0.245 0.245 0.245 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.390 0.499 0.178 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.620 0.483 0.371 0.282 0.209 0.179 0.138 0.008 -0.026 -0.049 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.620 2 0.521 0.160 3 0.516 0.142 0.034 4 0.516 0.142 0.033 0.002 5 0.516 0.142 0.035 0.007 -0.011 6 0.516 0.142 0.033 0.002 -0.030 0.037 7 0.516 0.142 0.033 0.002 -0.030 0.039 -0.004 8 0.515 0.149 0.028 0.003 -0.024 0.063 0.083 -0.170 9 0.513 0.150 0.029 0.002 -0.024 0.064 0.085 -0.162 -0.014 10 0.513 0.150 0.029 0.002 -0.024 0.064 0.085 -0.163 -0.015 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1745.62 1655.83 1652.93 1654.71 1656.71 1658.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1660.43 1662.43 1658.91 1660.88 1662.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.521 0.160 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 40.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 166.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.521 0.431 0.308 0.230 0.169 0.125 0.092 0.068 0.050 0.0370 0.027 0.020 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0018 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 698011 2 0.197 0.371 0.070 2 698012 2 0.238 0.457 0.058 3 698021 2 0.599 0.566 0.246 4 698022 2 0.534 0.536 0.244 5 698031 2 0.558 0.677 0.084 6 698032 2 0.510 0.660 0.058 7 698041 2 0.717 0.767 0.089 8 698042 2 0.574 0.659 0.124 9 698051 2 0.573 0.674 0.105 10 698052 2 0.515 0.595 0.159 11 698061 2 0.203 0.348 0.164 12 698062 2 0.308 0.441 0.164 13 698071 2 0.353 0.423 0.231 14 698072 2 0.332 0.398 0.254 15 698091 2 0.297 0.410 0.202 16 698092 2 0.277 0.407 0.184 17 698101 2 0.538 0.592 0.181 18 698102 2 0.523 0.662 0.081 19 698111 2 0.387 0.474 0.210 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 698112 2 0.518 0.568 0.182 21 698121 2 0.441 0.678 -0.021 22 698122 2 0.354 0.577 0.026 23 698131 2 0.236 0.448 0.065 24 698132 2 0.382 0.549 0.102 25 698141 2 0.469 0.656 0.034 26 698142 2 0.474 0.575 0.131 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.427 0.545 0.132 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.139 0.116 0.076 MEDIAN 2 0.455 0.567 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.226 0.219 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.197 0.348 -0.021 LOWER HINGE 2 0.308 0.441 0.070 UPPER HINGE 2 0.534 0.659 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.717 0.767 0.254 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 1.000 0.320 0.936 5.106 0.349 -0.014 2 698012 1918 1983 66 1.000 0.239 0.192 3.052 0.262 -0.004 3 698021 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.279 -0.213 3.900 0.306 -0.036 4 698022 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.281 0.488 5.584 0.301 -0.017 5 698031 1795 1982 188 1.001 0.296 0.126 4.111 0.346 -0.010 6 698032 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.313 0.350 5.308 0.358 -0.003 7 698041 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.294 1.439 10.074 0.299 -0.013 8 698042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.262 0.658 3.976 0.287 -0.006 9 698051 1808 1983 176 1.001 0.345 -0.194 3.688 0.399 0.009 10 698052 1811 1983 173 1.001 0.390 0.273 4.384 0.438 0.022 11 698061 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.272 0.576 4.525 0.291 -0.015 12 698062 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.296 0.822 5.202 0.306 -0.018 13 698071 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.320 0.394 4.178 0.368 -0.036 14 698072 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.305 0.290 4.040 0.348 -0.013 15 698091 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.317 0.210 3.395 0.355 -0.020 16 698092 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.309 0.381 3.847 0.343 -0.014 17 698101 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.313 0.792 6.309 0.338 -0.007 18 698102 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.282 0.291 3.667 0.320 0.000 19 698111 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.311 0.107 3.684 0.355 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.317 0.604 4.542 0.354 0.035 21 698121 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.268 -0.122 2.635 0.318 -0.001 22 698122 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.263 0.236 3.299 0.284 -0.001 23 698131 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.309 0.271 4.226 0.325 0.003 24 698132 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.335 0.722 4.680 0.369 0.005 25 698141 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.275 0.042 2.905 0.324 0.005 26 698142 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.268 -0.065 3.360 0.306 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.299 0.369 4.372 0.333 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.031 0.379 1.447 0.038 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 1.000 0.300 0.290 4.076 0.331 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.042 0.477 1.013 0.049 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.239 -0.213 2.635 0.262 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.275 0.126 3.667 0.306 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.317 0.604 4.680 0.355 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.001 0.390 1.439 10.074 0.438 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.608 0.094 0.005 -0.500 3.909 0.251 0.866 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.251 SERIES 698011 AND 698031 65 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.866 SERIES 698071 AND 698072 176 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.764 0.755 0.586 0.552 0.568 SDEV 0.067 0.070 0.145 0.132 0.120 SERR 0.004 0.004 0.009 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.987 0.987 0.972 0.969 0.972 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.995 0.227 -0.173 3.647 0.254 -0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.406 0.108 0.060 70 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.34 1.00 1.10 1.44 4.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.030 -0.007 0.014 0.000 -0.042 0.047 0.109 -0.084 -0.022 0.022 PACF -0.030 -0.008 0.014 0.000 -0.042 0.044 0.111 -0.077 -0.028 0.016 95% C.L. 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.149 0.149 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.013 -0.001 -0.040 0.048 0.107 -0.081 -0.024 0.018 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.013 -0.001 -0.040 0.048 0.108 -0.081 -0.026 0.015 95% C.L. 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.149 0.149 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.996 0.294 0.267 2.679 0.202 0.626 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.622 0.488 0.360 0.264 0.185 0.161 0.128 0.013 -0.019 -0.047 PACF 0.622 0.164 0.007 -0.010 -0.017 0.046 0.009 -0.153 -0.014 -0.004 95% C.L. 0.145 0.194 0.218 0.230 0.237 0.240 0.242 0.244 0.244 0.244 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.404 0.522 0.162 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 3.97 MINUTES