RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK012L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK012L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 698 1 Northway Junction WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 698 2 United States of America White Spruce 600 6250-14120 1795 1983 - 698 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 698031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1966 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 698032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1890 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 698042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 698052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1901 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 698061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1843 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 698062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1848 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 698072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1862 1866 / 1890 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 698101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1932 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 698102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1879 1879 / 1913 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 0.256 0.171 1.164 4.516 0.378 0.514 2 698012 1918 1983 66 0.173 0.076 2.626 12.442 0.297 0.339 3 698021 1819 1983 165 0.132 0.066 1.005 4.684 0.219 0.737 4 698022 1807 1983 177 0.117 0.052 1.202 4.674 0.224 0.753 5 698031 1795 1982 188 0.099 0.051 1.246 6.250 0.244 0.766 6 698032 1796 1980 185 0.108 0.061 1.247 4.084 0.241 0.798 7 698041 1801 1983 183 0.107 0.053 1.131 3.649 0.178 0.879 8 698042 1800 1983 184 0.108 0.054 0.979 3.236 0.208 0.841 9 698051 1808 1983 176 0.106 0.047 1.259 5.451 0.232 0.710 10 698052 1811 1983 173 0.117 0.053 0.904 3.213 0.213 0.812 11 698061 1799 1983 185 0.098 0.040 1.353 4.564 0.210 0.751 12 698062 1804 1983 180 0.110 0.050 1.784 6.658 0.194 0.772 13 698071 1807 1983 177 0.142 0.074 1.310 5.152 0.239 0.725 14 698072 1808 1983 176 0.125 0.101 4.784 29.000 0.236 0.865 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.101 0.030 0.854 3.572 0.166 0.681 16 698092 1823 1983 161 0.118 0.032 0.321 2.338 0.165 0.716 17 698101 1808 1983 176 0.084 0.044 1.061 4.680 0.242 0.841 18 698102 1810 1983 174 0.115 0.075 1.584 5.737 0.198 0.894 19 698111 1803 1983 181 0.113 0.037 1.267 5.625 0.237 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 0.146 0.091 6.266 58.194 0.283 0.361 21 698121 1836 1983 148 0.159 0.082 2.179 9.468 0.251 0.672 22 698122 1835 1983 149 0.135 0.063 6.240 56.763 0.198 0.438 23 698131 1797 1983 187 0.101 0.059 1.714 5.509 0.218 0.793 24 698132 1797 1983 187 0.110 0.075 1.355 4.182 0.209 0.816 25 698141 1820 1983 164 0.125 0.057 1.313 4.662 0.209 0.812 26 698142 1813 1983 171 0.126 0.043 0.675 2.984 0.242 0.554 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1795 TO 1983 189 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 164 0.124 0.063 1.801 10.049 0.228 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.033 0.028 1.546 14.868 0.043 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.116 0.055 1.263 4.682 0.222 0.752 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.025 0.027 0.653 2.166 0.033 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.084 0.030 0.321 2.338 0.165 0.339 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.107 0.047 1.061 4.084 0.208 0.672 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 179 0.132 0.075 1.714 6.250 0.242 0.812 MAXIMUM VALUE 187 0.256 0.171 6.266 58.194 0.378 0.894 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.397 0.211 0.012 -0.236 2.773 -0.250 0.844 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.250 SERIES 698062 AND 698121 148 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.844 SERIES 698031 AND 698032 185 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.537 0.534 0.274 0.145 0.297 SDEV 0.168 0.240 0.293 0.263 0.241 SERR 0.011 0.014 0.018 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.965 0.965 0.902 0.811 0.917 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.119 0.047 1.517 5.898 0.127 0.872 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.519 0.158 0.019 122 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.88 1.76 1.00 1.37 3.12 15.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 176. 19. 66. 164. 183. 188. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.867 0.785 0.752 0.701 0.655 0.637 0.626 0.603 0.540 0.520 PACF 0.867 0.132 0.191 -0.009 0.025 0.092 0.080 0.016 -0.170 0.087 95% C.L. 0.145 0.230 0.281 0.321 0.352 0.377 0.399 0.419 0.437 0.451 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.787 0.605 0.054 0.268 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 698011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00565244 0.44511423 2 698012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170901 0.22982751 3 698021 1 0.15157863 0.07099579 0.00000000 0.11987802 4 698022 1 0.16846225 0.08843388 0.00000000 0.10676870 5 698031 1 0.16497074 0.01639098 0.00000000 0.04594107 6 698032 1 0.21943501 0.03024164 0.00000000 0.06670359 7 698041 1 0.19082774 0.03765716 0.00000000 0.08006830 8 698042 1 0.16472526 0.02169280 0.00000000 0.06546934 9 698051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008854 0.09778896 10 698052 1 0.12365153 0.02108897 0.00000000 0.08147841 11 698061 1 0.13027751 0.02533357 0.00000000 0.07128005 12 698062 1 0.23218767 0.09300944 0.00000000 0.09605451 13 698071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084601 0.21698961 14 698072 1 0.11625735 0.06365961 0.00000000 0.11171160 15 698091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022657 0.11908289 16 698092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026075 0.13913354 17 698101 1 0.10587426 0.04089634 0.00000000 0.06948778 18 698102 1 0.31882483 0.05080457 0.00000000 0.07874328 19 698111 1 0.04257089 0.02174691 0.00000000 0.10227364 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 698112 1 0.08257898 0.11138517 0.00000000 0.14162442 21 698121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109200 0.24040817 22 698122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022986 0.15233992 23 698131 1 0.20658925 0.02369616 0.00000000 0.05533238 24 698132 1 0.24814343 0.01951144 0.00000000 0.04440732 25 698141 1 0.21695217 0.05609728 0.00000000 0.10232001 26 698142 1 0.09755728 0.06664027 0.00000000 0.11745226 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 0.982 0.485 1.304 4.464 0.370 0.278 2 698012 1918 1983 66 1.001 0.408 3.102 13.007 0.292 0.110 3 698021 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.488 1.632 7.571 0.219 0.696 4 698022 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.402 1.497 6.715 0.222 0.721 5 698031 1795 1982 188 1.000 0.331 0.766 4.118 0.241 0.558 6 698032 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.354 0.831 4.955 0.237 0.527 7 698041 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.345 1.284 4.850 0.178 0.747 8 698042 1800 1983 184 1.001 0.350 0.570 3.470 0.205 0.661 9 698051 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.445 1.136 4.849 0.231 0.712 10 698052 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.395 0.876 4.321 0.208 0.750 11 698061 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.235 0.444 3.023 0.212 0.334 12 698062 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.325 1.053 4.156 0.196 0.653 13 698071 1807 1983 177 1.001 0.423 1.757 7.294 0.238 0.573 14 698072 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.864 5.516 35.738 0.239 0.858 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.999 0.284 0.963 3.548 0.165 0.658 16 698092 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.255 0.688 3.296 0.164 0.671 17 698101 1808 1983 176 0.999 0.499 2.434 12.829 0.239 0.806 18 698102 1810 1983 174 0.998 0.408 0.698 3.224 0.203 0.791 19 698111 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.319 1.772 8.728 0.236 0.488 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.637 6.589 62.019 0.282 0.352 21 698121 1836 1983 148 0.997 0.359 2.188 11.313 0.250 0.470 22 698122 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.461 6.431 58.904 0.197 0.425 23 698131 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.260 1.405 8.084 0.217 0.247 24 698132 1797 1983 187 1.001 0.455 4.935 37.544 0.209 0.545 25 698141 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.325 1.067 4.465 0.207 0.628 26 698142 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.322 0.757 3.165 0.241 0.461 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.999 0.401 1.988 12.525 0.227 0.566 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.004 0.130 1.812 16.628 0.042 0.190 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 1.000 0.377 1.294 4.902 0.220 0.600 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.130 1.357 7.195 0.034 0.251 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.982 0.235 0.444 3.023 0.164 0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.325 0.831 4.118 0.205 0.461 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.455 2.188 11.313 0.239 0.712 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.001 0.864 6.589 62.019 0.370 0.858 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 698011 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 698012 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 698021 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 698022 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 698031 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 698032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 698041 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 698042 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 698051 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 698052 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 698061 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 698062 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 698071 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 698072 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 698091 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 698092 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 698101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 698102 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 698111 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 698112 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 698121 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 698122 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 698131 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 698132 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 698141 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 698142 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 0.993 0.472 1.625 5.786 0.368 0.183 2 698012 1918 1983 66 0.996 0.383 3.046 12.254 0.291 0.041 3 698021 1819 1983 165 0.982 0.396 1.180 5.541 0.220 0.619 4 698022 1807 1983 177 0.990 0.344 1.170 5.384 0.223 0.629 5 698031 1795 1982 188 0.993 0.286 0.367 3.710 0.241 0.420 6 698032 1796 1980 185 0.987 0.302 0.918 6.660 0.237 0.390 7 698041 1801 1983 183 0.995 0.319 1.462 5.711 0.178 0.709 8 698042 1800 1983 184 0.989 0.269 0.626 3.268 0.206 0.486 9 698051 1808 1983 176 0.987 0.376 1.358 5.548 0.232 0.612 10 698052 1811 1983 173 0.989 0.353 0.875 4.318 0.208 0.703 11 698061 1799 1983 185 0.999 0.230 0.417 2.955 0.212 0.301 12 698062 1804 1983 180 0.994 0.249 0.602 3.047 0.197 0.436 13 698071 1807 1983 177 0.991 0.380 1.679 7.098 0.237 0.508 14 698072 1808 1983 176 0.988 0.671 4.791 30.124 0.240 0.819 15 698091 1822 1983 162 0.995 0.229 0.468 2.848 0.166 0.510 16 698092 1823 1983 161 0.996 0.228 0.424 2.906 0.164 0.599 17 698101 1808 1983 176 0.982 0.374 2.290 12.859 0.240 0.664 18 698102 1810 1983 174 0.986 0.275 0.512 3.324 0.203 0.578 19 698111 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.311 1.668 8.041 0.236 0.473 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.615 6.482 60.999 0.282 0.343 21 698121 1836 1983 148 0.997 0.328 1.691 8.507 0.250 0.420 22 698122 1835 1983 149 0.993 0.381 5.866 53.027 0.197 0.347 23 698131 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.256 1.337 7.675 0.217 0.237 24 698132 1797 1983 187 0.998 0.458 5.388 42.031 0.209 0.539 25 698141 1820 1983 164 0.997 0.302 0.778 3.849 0.208 0.580 26 698142 1813 1983 171 0.997 0.285 0.538 2.770 0.242 0.334 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.993 0.349 1.829 11.932 0.227 0.480 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.005 0.109 1.787 15.974 0.041 0.178 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 0.994 0.323 1.258 5.629 0.221 0.497 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.008 0.106 1.089 5.182 0.034 0.264 MINIMUM VALUE 66 0.982 0.228 0.367 2.770 0.164 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 0.989 0.275 0.602 3.324 0.206 0.347 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 0.997 0.381 1.691 8.507 0.240 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 0.999 0.671 6.482 60.999 0.368 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.281 0.149 0.008 0.018 2.857 -0.170 0.726 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.170 SERIES 698011 AND 698131 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.726 SERIES 698021 AND 698022 165 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.474 0.424 0.279 0.169 0.281 SDEV 0.151 0.220 0.259 0.223 0.199 SERR 0.010 0.013 0.016 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.955 0.946 0.904 0.838 0.910 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.968 0.175 0.366 3.292 0.124 0.575 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.513 0.255 -0.022 83 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.97 1.01 1.10 2.07 11.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.572 0.410 0.410 0.309 0.197 0.210 0.163 0.127 0.009 0.002 PACF 0.572 0.123 0.202 -0.017 -0.057 0.074 -0.020 0.023 -0.169 0.013 95% C.L. 0.145 0.187 0.205 0.222 0.231 0.234 0.238 0.241 0.242 0.242 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.366 0.478 0.018 0.205 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.576 0.403 0.383 0.265 0.185 0.194 0.113 0.078 0.020 -0.023 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.576 2 0.515 0.107 3 0.496 0.018 0.172 4 0.504 0.019 0.196 -0.048 5 0.504 0.021 0.196 -0.043 -0.011 6 0.505 0.024 0.183 -0.044 -0.045 0.067 7 0.509 0.021 0.180 -0.032 -0.043 0.100 -0.065 8 0.510 0.021 0.180 -0.032 -0.045 0.100 -0.069 0.008 9 0.510 0.015 0.189 -0.036 -0.048 0.115 -0.067 0.051 -0.085 10 0.508 0.016 0.187 -0.033 -0.049 0.114 -0.063 0.052 -0.071 -0.026 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1560.55 1486.32 1486.15 1482.48 1484.04 1486.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1487.16 1488.35 1490.34 1490.97 1492.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.496 0.018 0.172 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 35.90 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 156.02 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.496 0.265 0.312 0.245 0.173 0.144 0.117 0.090 0.072 0.0573 0.045 0.036 0.028 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.0056 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 698011 3 0.038 0.195 -0.057 0.036 2 698012 3 0.033 0.039 -0.089 -0.057 3 698021 3 0.460 0.398 0.136 0.254 4 698022 3 0.430 0.475 0.155 0.109 5 698031 3 0.281 0.353 -0.001 0.262 6 698032 3 0.220 0.300 0.112 0.172 7 698041 3 0.592 0.383 0.251 0.219 8 698042 3 0.309 0.354 0.108 0.215 9 698051 3 0.390 0.517 0.141 0.019 10 698052 3 0.504 0.651 0.105 -0.034 11 698061 3 0.144 0.223 0.148 0.134 12 698062 3 0.261 0.298 0.261 0.061 13 698071 3 0.282 0.432 0.120 0.055 14 698072 3 0.698 0.934 0.001 -0.186 15 698091 3 0.302 0.409 0.146 0.089 16 698092 3 0.391 0.461 0.155 0.093 17 698101 3 0.488 0.500 0.144 0.125 18 698102 3 0.382 0.445 0.086 0.185 19 698111 3 0.231 0.435 0.052 0.049 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 698112 3 0.142 0.296 0.067 0.116 21 698121 3 0.206 0.385 0.024 0.110 22 698122 3 0.138 0.313 0.127 -0.042 23 698131 3 0.097 0.220 -0.002 0.193 24 698132 3 0.325 0.622 -0.220 0.179 25 698141 3 0.354 0.530 0.151 -0.090 26 698142 3 0.174 0.263 0.107 0.148 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.303 0.401 0.086 0.093 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.165 0.173 0.103 0.111 MEDIAN 3 0.292 0.392 0.110 0.110 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.217 0.176 0.122 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.033 0.039 -0.220 -0.186 LOWER HINGE 3 0.174 0.298 0.024 0.036 UPPER HINGE 3 0.391 0.475 0.146 0.179 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.698 0.934 0.261 0.262 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 698011 1918 1983 66 1.000 0.463 1.820 6.482 0.398 -0.001 2 698012 1918 1983 66 1.000 0.380 2.996 12.094 0.304 -0.008 3 698021 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.291 1.259 7.021 0.267 -0.012 4 698022 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.260 1.008 4.865 0.270 -0.006 5 698031 1795 1982 188 1.000 0.249 0.050 3.605 0.285 -0.059 6 698032 1796 1980 185 1.000 0.269 1.244 7.639 0.272 -0.016 7 698041 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.205 0.623 4.937 0.221 0.024 8 698042 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.225 0.523 3.082 0.246 -0.020 9 698051 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.294 1.198 7.037 0.290 0.000 10 698052 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.248 0.532 4.050 0.268 -0.002 11 698061 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.213 0.288 3.295 0.240 -0.013 12 698062 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.214 0.457 3.361 0.230 -0.001 13 698071 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.322 1.729 8.758 0.287 -0.001 14 698072 1808 1983 176 1.003 0.361 1.762 10.202 0.362 0.008 15 698091 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.190 0.469 3.527 0.209 -0.003 16 698092 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.178 0.159 3.712 0.202 -0.005 17 698101 1808 1983 176 1.000 0.270 1.418 9.927 0.289 0.018 18 698102 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.217 0.272 3.865 0.237 -0.016 19 698111 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.273 1.507 8.239 0.288 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 698112 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.571 7.633 77.799 0.330 0.007 21 698121 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.294 1.142 6.117 0.305 0.013 22 698122 1835 1983 149 1.000 0.355 6.962 67.378 0.223 0.003 23 698131 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.244 1.155 6.907 0.247 -0.012 24 698132 1797 1983 187 1.001 0.375 5.326 50.628 0.325 0.020 25 698141 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.243 0.799 4.247 0.258 -0.010 26 698142 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.263 0.586 3.122 0.270 0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.287 1.651 12.765 0.274 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.001 0.088 1.977 19.874 0.046 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 1.000 0.266 1.148 6.299 0.270 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.000 0.097 1.206 5.046 0.049 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 66 1.000 0.178 0.050 3.082 0.202 -0.059 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.225 0.523 3.712 0.240 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.000 0.322 1.729 8.758 0.290 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 188 1.003 0.571 7.633 77.799 0.398 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.255 0.109 0.006 -0.507 4.374 -0.215 0.561 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.215 SERIES 698011 AND 698131 66 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.561 SERIES 698051 AND 698052 173 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 80.72 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 231. 276. 276. 276. 325. RBAR 0.420 0.331 0.270 0.226 0.211 SDEV 0.127 0.158 0.160 0.142 0.158 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.945 0.922 0.900 0.881 0.874 NSS 23.6 24.0 24.3 25.3 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.984 0.136 0.394 3.702 0.142 0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.390 0.191 0.005 85 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 0.67 1.00 1.12 1.80 40.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.053 -0.030 0.065 0.074 -0.076 0.079 0.008 0.060 -0.101 -0.008 PACF 0.053 -0.033 0.069 0.066 -0.080 0.090 -0.017 0.073 -0.113 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.009 -0.014 0.074 -0.086 0.094 -0.014 0.081 -0.113 0.003 PACF -0.005 0.009 -0.013 0.074 -0.086 0.093 -0.012 0.075 -0.103 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.151 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.006 -0.004 0.009 -0.014 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1795 1983 189 0.983 0.171 0.301 3.186 0.119 0.584 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.581 0.412 0.397 0.332 0.208 0.217 0.157 0.120 0.019 0.021 PACF 0.581 0.112 0.183 0.034 -0.078 0.086 -0.056 0.019 -0.134 0.027 95% C.L. 0.145 0.188 0.206 0.222 0.232 0.236 0.240 0.243 0.244 0.244 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.370 0.499 0.012 0.185 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES