RUN: AK001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AK013L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AK013L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -999 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 759 1 Willow Island,30km westl WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 759 2 United States of America White Spruce 99 6450-14810 1769 1983 - 759 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 759032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1902 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 759042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1960 1968 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 759051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1951 1957 / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 759052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 759061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 759062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1907 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 759071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 759072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1875 1881 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 759081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 759082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1896 1902 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 759101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1974 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 759121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 759122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1772 1776 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 759141 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1780 1784 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 759142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1804 1808 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 759011 1829 1983 155 0.119 0.041 1.445 5.144 0.203 0.618 2 759012 1799 1983 185 0.153 0.076 2.147 8.628 0.228 0.619 3 759021 1818 1983 166 0.140 0.049 1.645 6.439 0.246 0.387 4 759022 1814 1983 170 0.134 0.079 2.073 8.069 0.267 0.624 5 759031 1833 1983 151 0.183 0.207 2.535 8.549 0.266 0.882 6 759032 1810 1983 174 0.141 0.069 1.200 4.214 0.267 0.625 7 759041 1856 1983 128 0.106 0.032 0.895 4.145 0.215 0.545 8 759042 1863 1981 119 0.170 0.073 1.844 7.417 0.297 0.315 9 759051 1804 1976 173 0.159 0.147 1.887 6.255 0.241 0.791 10 759052 1791 1981 191 0.106 0.069 1.628 5.574 0.229 0.833 11 759061 1834 1983 150 0.206 0.154 1.644 5.646 0.253 0.808 12 759062 1827 1983 157 0.184 0.100 1.619 6.334 0.230 0.724 13 759071 1870 1983 114 0.235 0.129 0.706 2.781 0.253 0.784 14 759072 1845 1983 139 0.100 0.035 0.612 3.436 0.261 0.531 15 759081 1823 1983 161 0.152 0.088 2.039 7.794 0.243 0.652 16 759082 1823 1983 161 0.149 0.082 1.421 4.580 0.301 0.643 17 759091 1824 1983 160 0.102 0.043 2.435 13.113 0.218 0.562 18 759092 1770 1983 214 0.133 0.072 2.407 12.876 0.256 0.712 19 759101 1853 1983 131 0.128 0.064 2.141 8.681 0.296 0.576 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 759102 1833 1983 151 0.095 0.039 1.921 7.885 0.247 0.601 21 759111 1811 1983 173 0.092 0.069 4.185 23.430 0.230 0.689 22 759112 1825 1983 159 0.096 0.057 3.160 16.643 0.232 0.685 23 759121 1815 1983 169 0.136 0.080 1.645 5.992 0.246 0.823 24 759122 1769 1983 215 0.146 0.113 2.148 7.907 0.282 0.776 25 759131 1828 1983 156 0.189 0.089 1.875 7.757 0.247 0.591 26 759132 1828 1983 156 0.181 0.074 0.726 3.392 0.256 0.607 27 759141 1779 1983 205 0.105 0.043 0.612 2.851 0.239 0.685 28 759142 1802 1971 170 0.094 0.034 0.525 2.938 0.212 0.667 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1769 TO 1983 215 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.140 0.079 1.754 7.445 0.249 0.656 STANDARD DEVIATION 25 0.038 0.041 0.809 4.513 0.025 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 157 0.138 0.073 1.745 6.387 0.247 0.647 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.059 0.042 0.833 3.912 0.033 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 110 0.092 0.032 0.525 2.781 0.203 0.315 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 147 0.105 0.046 1.310 4.397 0.230 0.596 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 169 0.165 0.088 2.144 8.309 0.263 0.750 MAXIMUM VALUE 214 0.235 0.207 4.185 23.430 0.301 0.882 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.220 0.280 0.014 -0.004 2.363 -0.501 0.881 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.501 SERIES 759061 AND 759142 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.881 SERIES 759061 AND 759062 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 276. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.357 0.397 0.251 0.226 0.256 0.358 SDEV 0.123 0.205 0.301 0.279 0.276 0.190 SERR 0.050 0.025 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.882 0.937 0.899 0.891 0.906 0.940 NSS 13.5 22.5 26.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1983 215 0.122 0.041 1.198 4.905 0.161 0.774 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.735 0.474 -0.004 142 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.90 1.92 1.00 1.31 3.23 37.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.99 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 160. 22. 114. 151. 173. 215. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.770 0.693 0.602 0.524 0.502 0.427 0.384 0.351 0.304 0.266 PACF 0.770 0.247 0.025 -0.003 0.117 -0.060 -0.007 0.037 -0.021 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.136 0.202 0.242 0.268 0.287 0.303 0.314 0.322 0.329 0.335 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.619 0.583 0.244 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 759011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025265 0.09932552 2 759012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021070 0.13353996 3 759021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013243 0.15069661 4 759022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029456 0.15959693 5 759031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147773 0.29555231 6 759032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019776 0.12100257 7 759041 1 0.11751869 0.17402722 0.00000000 0.10142008 8 759042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048039 0.14363144 9 759051 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 759052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087738 0.18898144 11 759061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176055 0.06231264 12 759062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090571 0.10055738 13 759071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00185174 0.12672403 14 759072 1 0.07556073 0.12837818 0.00000000 0.09389102 15 759081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055034 0.10453285 16 759082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051447 0.10429975 17 759091 1 0.12941822 0.04435726 0.00000000 0.08399389 18 759092 1 0.13714215 0.00617923 0.00000000 0.05748786 19 759101 1 0.11070156 0.01261816 0.00000000 0.07125355 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 759102 1 0.09275243 0.01262721 0.00000000 0.05354480 21 759111 1 0.42159718 0.13174005 0.00000000 0.07483222 22 759112 1 0.16588102 0.03539034 0.00000000 0.06674193 23 759121 1 0.25928867 0.01823504 0.00000000 0.05471080 24 759122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065908 0.21526621 25 759131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118538 0.28189826 26 759132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097179 0.25679818 27 759141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014305 0.11881829 28 759142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030373 0.12160248 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 759011 1829 1983 155 0.999 0.320 1.174 4.379 0.203 0.582 2 759012 1799 1983 185 1.001 0.494 2.263 9.424 0.227 0.611 3 759021 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.351 1.739 6.920 0.244 0.370 4 759022 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.579 2.185 8.860 0.266 0.625 5 759031 1833 1983 151 0.978 0.903 2.197 6.946 0.266 0.831 6 759032 1810 1983 174 0.999 0.483 0.928 3.730 0.262 0.638 7 759041 1856 1983 128 1.000 0.274 0.656 3.321 0.213 0.457 8 759042 1863 1981 119 1.000 0.408 2.139 10.117 0.292 0.261 9 759051 1804 1976 173 0.986 0.373 1.408 6.211 0.239 0.506 10 759052 1791 1981 191 1.047 0.427 1.067 4.327 0.226 0.642 11 759061 1834 1983 150 1.005 0.602 1.472 5.269 0.248 0.742 12 759062 1827 1983 157 1.007 0.533 1.019 4.327 0.223 0.757 13 759071 1870 1983 114 0.989 0.478 0.885 3.521 0.250 0.740 14 759072 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.348 0.698 3.356 0.252 0.535 15 759081 1823 1983 161 0.996 0.527 2.039 8.119 0.242 0.608 16 759082 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.520 1.363 4.369 0.295 0.591 17 759091 1824 1983 160 1.000 0.285 0.614 2.905 0.216 0.470 18 759092 1770 1983 214 1.001 0.448 1.340 6.607 0.255 0.629 19 759101 1853 1983 131 1.000 0.444 2.017 8.486 0.288 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 759102 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.320 1.633 7.043 0.247 0.365 21 759111 1811 1983 173 0.999 0.373 1.467 6.000 0.230 0.552 22 759112 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.338 1.854 8.867 0.230 0.454 23 759121 1815 1983 169 0.999 0.294 0.951 4.060 0.244 0.348 24 759122 1769 1983 215 0.990 0.604 1.827 7.603 0.283 0.696 25 759131 1828 1983 156 0.996 0.324 2.179 10.606 0.246 0.352 26 759132 1828 1983 156 0.995 0.325 1.122 4.278 0.254 0.394 27 759141 1779 1983 205 0.998 0.403 0.698 3.073 0.233 0.676 28 759142 1802 1971 170 0.997 0.332 0.684 3.082 0.208 0.638 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.999 0.432 1.415 5.922 0.246 0.557 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.011 0.135 0.553 2.379 0.025 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 160 1.000 0.405 1.386 5.635 0.245 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.004 0.178 0.996 3.966 0.031 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.978 0.274 0.614 2.905 0.203 0.261 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.997 0.328 0.939 3.895 0.228 0.455 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.507 1.936 7.861 0.259 0.640 MAXIMUM VALUE 215 1.047 0.903 2.263 10.606 0.295 0.831 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 759011 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 759012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 759021 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 759022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 759031 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 759032 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 759041 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 759042 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 759051 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 759052 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 759061 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 759062 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 759071 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 759072 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 759081 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 759082 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 759091 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 759092 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 759101 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 759102 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 759111 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 759112 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 759121 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 759122 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 759131 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 759132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 759141 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 759142 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 759011 1829 1983 155 0.994 0.280 1.394 6.556 0.203 0.465 2 759012 1799 1983 185 0.984 0.343 1.891 8.471 0.226 0.433 3 759021 1818 1983 166 0.996 0.318 1.395 5.234 0.244 0.315 4 759022 1814 1983 170 0.978 0.459 1.811 6.852 0.266 0.516 5 759031 1833 1983 151 0.975 0.697 1.561 5.067 0.268 0.755 6 759032 1810 1983 174 0.984 0.391 0.505 3.267 0.263 0.510 7 759041 1856 1983 128 0.997 0.250 0.633 3.442 0.214 0.335 8 759042 1863 1981 119 0.997 0.385 2.002 10.525 0.293 0.218 9 759051 1804 1976 173 0.988 0.331 1.683 7.327 0.239 0.393 10 759052 1791 1981 191 0.992 0.312 0.928 4.843 0.225 0.497 11 759061 1834 1983 150 0.955 0.349 1.199 5.015 0.248 0.522 12 759062 1827 1983 157 0.963 0.352 0.655 4.557 0.224 0.609 13 759071 1870 1983 114 0.977 0.330 0.424 3.419 0.250 0.507 14 759072 1845 1983 139 0.992 0.315 1.144 5.266 0.253 0.448 15 759081 1823 1983 161 0.990 0.400 1.394 6.851 0.243 0.490 16 759082 1823 1983 161 0.974 0.352 1.020 4.273 0.294 0.352 17 759091 1824 1983 160 0.999 0.277 0.654 3.246 0.216 0.429 18 759092 1770 1983 214 0.984 0.381 1.535 8.347 0.256 0.535 19 759101 1853 1983 131 0.998 0.437 1.963 7.985 0.288 0.503 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 759102 1833 1983 151 0.998 0.298 1.224 5.564 0.247 0.314 21 759111 1811 1983 173 0.994 0.317 1.327 7.211 0.231 0.419 22 759112 1825 1983 159 0.998 0.330 1.945 9.323 0.230 0.435 23 759121 1815 1983 169 0.998 0.282 0.840 3.627 0.244 0.308 24 759122 1769 1983 215 0.966 0.436 1.215 5.042 0.284 0.528 25 759131 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.300 1.735 8.077 0.246 0.288 26 759132 1828 1983 156 0.999 0.301 0.955 3.907 0.254 0.325 27 759141 1779 1983 205 0.995 0.279 0.661 3.209 0.234 0.390 28 759142 1802 1971 170 0.996 0.269 0.683 3.150 0.209 0.456 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.988 0.349 1.228 5.702 0.246 0.439 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.012 0.087 0.485 2.095 0.025 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 160 0.993 0.330 1.220 5.150 0.245 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.016 0.084 0.861 3.502 0.031 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 114 0.955 0.250 0.424 3.150 0.203 0.218 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.981 0.299 0.761 3.767 0.228 0.343 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 173 0.998 0.383 1.622 7.269 0.259 0.508 MAXIMUM VALUE 215 0.999 0.697 2.002 10.525 0.294 0.755 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.264 0.140 0.007 0.008 2.890 -0.125 0.659 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.125 SERIES 759061 AND 759142 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.659 SERIES 759061 AND 759062 150 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 276. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.423 0.388 0.228 0.236 0.303 0.292 SDEV 0.097 0.160 0.240 0.226 0.205 0.174 SERR 0.040 0.020 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.908 0.934 0.888 0.897 0.924 0.920 NSS 13.5 22.5 26.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1983 215 0.936 0.225 0.666 3.884 0.163 0.512 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.481 0.215 0.051 91 124 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 0.98 1.00 1.18 2.16 10.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.510 0.426 0.382 0.215 0.222 0.162 0.093 0.085 0.042 -0.037 PACF 0.510 0.224 0.142 -0.099 0.067 -0.007 -0.034 -0.006 -0.014 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.136 0.168 0.187 0.201 0.205 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.213 0.214 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.343 0.397 0.197 0.170 -0.119 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 0.304 0.279 0.121 0.183 0.124 0.085 0.062 0.013 -0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.454 2 0.398 0.123 3 0.382 0.072 0.130 4 0.393 0.078 0.163 -0.087 5 0.405 0.056 0.152 -0.140 0.136 6 0.409 0.052 0.156 -0.139 0.146 -0.025 7 0.409 0.050 0.158 -0.141 0.145 -0.031 0.015 8 0.410 0.049 0.164 -0.147 0.151 -0.029 0.031 -0.039 9 0.409 0.049 0.164 -0.144 0.149 -0.027 0.032 -0.032 -0.016 10 0.408 0.048 0.165 -0.146 0.157 -0.034 0.040 -0.029 0.005 -0.052 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1785.26 1737.58 1736.28 1734.61 1734.99 1732.98 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1734.85 1736.80 1738.47 1740.42 1741.84 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.382 0.072 0.130 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.16 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 130.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.382 0.218 0.241 0.157 0.106 0.083 0.060 0.042 0.031 0.0228 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 759011 3 0.243 0.504 -0.106 0.128 2 759012 3 0.229 0.382 0.096 0.083 3 759021 3 0.113 0.292 0.077 0.038 4 759022 3 0.324 0.490 0.030 0.108 5 759031 3 0.615 0.574 0.238 0.014 6 759032 3 0.321 0.390 0.115 0.172 7 759041 3 0.143 0.330 0.086 -0.053 8 759042 3 0.075 0.208 0.020 0.078 9 759051 3 0.287 0.226 0.357 0.059 10 759052 3 0.295 0.374 0.249 -0.001 11 759061 3 0.320 0.553 -0.086 0.092 12 759062 3 0.452 0.395 0.232 0.135 13 759071 3 0.303 0.416 0.125 0.104 14 759072 3 0.205 0.436 0.039 -0.012 15 759081 3 0.300 0.433 -0.035 0.257 16 759082 3 0.137 0.334 0.027 0.080 17 759091 3 0.231 0.362 0.209 -0.032 18 759092 3 0.303 0.477 0.110 0.000 19 759101 3 0.279 0.550 -0.063 -0.008 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 759102 3 0.116 0.288 0.108 0.007 21 759111 3 0.213 0.338 0.089 0.153 22 759112 3 0.213 0.363 0.174 -0.010 23 759121 3 0.149 0.249 0.156 0.086 24 759122 3 0.365 0.345 0.189 0.190 25 759131 3 0.108 0.292 -0.027 0.142 26 759132 3 0.129 0.280 0.131 0.026 27 759141 3 0.188 0.323 0.080 0.141 28 759142 3 0.278 0.339 0.153 0.159 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.248 0.377 0.099 0.076 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.116 0.098 0.108 0.077 MEDIAN 3 0.237 0.363 0.102 0.082 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.157 0.127 0.136 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.075 0.208 -0.106 -0.053 LOWER HINGE 3 0.146 0.308 0.029 0.003 UPPER HINGE 3 0.303 0.435 0.165 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.615 0.574 0.357 0.257 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 759011 1829 1983 155 1.000 0.244 1.276 6.136 0.258 0.008 2 759012 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.301 2.289 11.766 0.261 -0.021 3 759021 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.300 1.501 5.780 0.277 0.009 4 759022 1814 1983 170 1.000 0.379 1.546 6.577 0.347 -0.008 5 759031 1833 1983 151 1.005 0.419 1.600 7.900 0.363 0.029 6 759032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.323 1.138 4.826 0.316 -0.017 7 759041 1856 1983 128 1.000 0.233 0.736 3.767 0.248 0.013 8 759042 1863 1981 119 1.000 0.374 2.362 13.005 0.320 0.011 9 759051 1804 1976 173 1.000 0.282 1.514 7.021 0.276 -0.010 10 759052 1791 1981 191 1.000 0.261 1.228 6.196 0.263 -0.003 11 759061 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.294 1.385 6.515 0.300 -0.018 12 759062 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.264 1.403 9.676 0.272 -0.023 13 759071 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.275 0.798 4.021 0.287 0.005 14 759072 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.281 0.799 4.656 0.311 0.003 15 759081 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.335 1.633 8.812 0.310 0.007 16 759082 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.326 1.116 5.184 0.333 -0.008 17 759091 1824 1983 160 1.000 0.243 0.471 4.049 0.255 0.009 18 759092 1770 1983 214 1.000 0.318 1.116 6.678 0.318 0.007 19 759101 1853 1983 131 1.000 0.374 2.036 9.929 0.370 0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 759102 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.280 0.882 4.799 0.292 0.012 21 759111 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.281 1.493 8.403 0.269 0.000 22 759112 1825 1983 159 1.000 0.293 2.269 11.279 0.274 -0.001 23 759121 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.262 0.843 3.840 0.275 0.016 24 759122 1769 1983 215 1.000 0.348 1.618 7.636 0.331 0.010 25 759131 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.282 1.767 8.065 0.279 -0.008 26 759132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.282 1.187 4.461 0.283 0.003 27 759141 1779 1983 205 1.000 0.252 0.812 4.259 0.269 0.009 28 759142 1802 1971 170 1.000 0.227 0.555 3.543 0.246 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 1.000 0.298 1.335 6.742 0.293 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.001 0.048 0.512 2.612 0.034 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 160 1.000 0.282 1.330 6.356 0.281 0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.062 0.746 3.675 0.048 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 114 1.000 0.227 0.471 3.543 0.246 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.263 0.863 4.559 0.269 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.325 1.609 8.234 0.317 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 215 1.005 0.419 2.362 13.005 0.370 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.256 0.110 0.006 0.255 3.168 -0.037 0.591 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.037 SERIES 759042 AND 759061 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.591 SERIES 759081 AND 759082 161 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.66 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 6. 66. 276. 378. 378. 378. RBAR 0.417 0.329 0.209 0.242 0.298 0.277 SDEV 0.114 0.149 0.172 0.171 0.166 0.165 SERR 0.046 0.018 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.906 0.917 0.876 0.900 0.923 0.915 NSS 13.5 22.5 26.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1983 215 0.970 0.174 1.069 5.869 0.174 0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.503 0.240 -0.024 104 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 0.91 1.01 1.11 2.02 51.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.063 0.057 0.097 -0.067 0.068 0.042 -0.021 0.020 0.013 -0.089 PACF 0.063 0.054 0.091 -0.082 0.069 0.034 -0.019 0.000 0.017 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.003 0.001 -0.084 0.061 0.035 -0.013 0.017 0.013 -0.082 PACF 0.010 0.003 0.001 -0.084 0.063 0.035 -0.014 0.010 0.024 -0.081 95% C.L. 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.138 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.008 0.010 0.003 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1769 1983 215 0.967 0.195 0.920 4.681 0.148 0.420 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.418 0.263 0.236 0.104 0.134 0.098 0.035 0.031 0.001 -0.082 PACF 0.418 0.107 0.114 -0.057 0.085 -0.001 -0.030 -0.008 -0.019 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.136 0.158 0.166 0.172 0.174 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.177 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.214 0.379 0.070 0.104 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.59 MINUTES