RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust005e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust005e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 245 1 Katscherpass WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 245 2 Austria Norway spruce 1800 4702-1338 1838 1975 - 245 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.921 0.487 0.828 3.716 0.137 0.658 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.679 0.716 0.930 3.425 0.183 0.815 3 245003 1882 1975 94 2.271 0.853 0.076 2.990 0.169 0.823 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.519 0.767 1.303 6.179 0.196 0.748 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.144 0.611 0.666 2.778 0.171 0.885 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.264 0.420 0.903 3.295 0.151 0.795 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.432 0.546 0.041 1.825 0.153 0.883 8 245008 1838 1975 138 0.870 0.339 1.187 4.284 0.178 0.771 9 245009 1866 1975 110 0.784 0.380 1.348 4.069 0.175 0.863 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.499 0.546 1.076 3.261 0.162 0.812 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.546 0.474 0.039 2.720 0.161 0.735 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.057 0.238 -0.408 3.033 0.148 0.662 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1838 TO 1975 138 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.416 0.531 0.666 3.465 0.165 0.788 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.428 0.182 0.584 1.073 0.017 0.076 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.466 0.517 0.866 3.278 0.165 0.804 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.512 0.263 1.073 1.009 0.025 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.784 0.238 -0.408 1.825 0.137 0.658 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.100 0.400 0.058 2.884 0.152 0.741 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.612 0.663 1.131 3.893 0.177 0.843 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 2.271 0.853 1.348 6.179 0.196 0.885 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.341 0.333 0.041 -0.683 2.584 -0.407 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.407 SERIES 245004 AND 246012 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 245009 AND 246010 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.224 0.265 0.470 SDEV 0.255 0.249 0.282 SERR 0.066 0.031 0.035 EPS 0.759 0.812 0.914 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.398 0.350 0.019 2.415 0.126 0.718 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.421 0.317 0.080 22 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.75 1.00 1.07 1.82 3.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.07 0.00 0.84 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 16. 94. 103. 120. 138. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.713 0.621 0.610 0.579 0.572 0.612 0.624 0.580 0.565 0.508 PACF 0.713 0.230 0.226 0.110 0.130 0.206 0.152 0.017 0.042 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.170 0.242 0.284 0.320 0.349 0.375 0.403 0.430 0.452 0.472 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.647 0.324 0.051 0.119 0.012 0.035 0.203 0.189 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00519825 2.22547674 2 245002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00833099 2.21184468 3 245003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02408973 3.41575146 4 245004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01406433 2.35597992 5 245005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01419791 1.99557185 6 245006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00549724 1.55787599 7 245007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01299847 2.21840763 8 245008 1 1.05329669 0.02458657 0.00000000 0.57347304 9 245009 1 1.41459477 0.05155043 0.00000000 0.54138982 10 246010 1 1.85223615 0.03506422 0.00000000 1.02574730 11 246011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00271239 1.40922427 12 246012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00349860 0.88933033 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.227 0.519 4.255 0.135 0.577 2 245002 1849 1975 127 0.993 0.366 1.132 4.219 0.181 0.766 3 245003 1882 1975 94 0.989 0.241 0.661 3.820 0.168 0.617 4 245004 1858 1975 118 0.987 0.372 2.818 15.512 0.194 0.604 5 245005 1857 1975 119 0.992 0.273 0.596 3.183 0.169 0.682 6 245006 1870 1975 106 0.997 0.296 1.127 4.288 0.149 0.746 7 245007 1856 1975 120 0.996 0.212 0.087 3.276 0.151 0.617 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.234 0.574 4.485 0.176 0.524 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.261 0.613 3.468 0.175 0.631 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.188 0.065 3.074 0.160 0.380 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.306 0.177 2.742 0.159 0.723 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.202 -0.732 3.988 0.147 0.557 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.996 0.265 0.636 4.693 0.164 0.619 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.005 0.060 0.852 3.453 0.017 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.998 0.251 0.585 3.904 0.164 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.007 0.082 0.762 1.042 0.026 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.987 0.188 -0.732 2.742 0.135 0.380 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.993 0.219 0.132 3.229 0.150 0.567 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.301 0.894 4.272 0.176 0.702 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.372 2.818 15.512 0.194 0.766 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 245002 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 245003 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 245004 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 245005 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 245006 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 245007 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 245008 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 245009 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 246010 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 246011 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 246012 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 0.997 0.201 0.417 4.991 0.135 0.485 2 245002 1849 1975 127 0.994 0.220 0.216 3.769 0.180 0.493 3 245003 1882 1975 94 0.998 0.189 0.530 4.665 0.168 0.402 4 245004 1858 1975 118 0.993 0.277 2.175 13.653 0.194 0.416 5 245005 1857 1975 119 0.995 0.241 0.415 3.176 0.170 0.597 6 245006 1870 1975 106 0.997 0.216 0.621 3.844 0.150 0.599 7 245007 1856 1975 120 0.998 0.189 -0.320 3.412 0.151 0.524 8 245008 1838 1975 138 0.999 0.230 0.675 5.230 0.176 0.503 9 245009 1866 1975 110 0.997 0.239 0.413 3.020 0.175 0.581 10 246010 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.179 0.062 3.133 0.160 0.313 11 246011 1876 1975 100 0.994 0.210 0.210 2.336 0.158 0.509 12 246012 1881 1975 95 0.997 0.179 -0.672 3.972 0.146 0.442 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.996 0.214 0.395 4.600 0.164 0.489 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.002 0.029 0.684 2.975 0.017 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.997 0.213 0.414 3.807 0.164 0.498 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.004 0.046 0.439 1.674 0.025 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.993 0.179 -0.672 2.336 0.135 0.313 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.994 0.189 0.136 3.154 0.151 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.998 0.235 0.575 4.828 0.176 0.553 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.277 2.175 13.653 0.194 0.599 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.293 0.161 0.020 -0.297 2.457 -0.041 0.598 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.041 SERIES 245001 AND 245007 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.598 SERIES 245006 AND 245009 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.260 0.295 0.348 SDEV 0.211 0.226 0.179 SERR 0.055 0.028 0.022 EPS 0.793 0.834 0.865 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.998 0.147 0.163 3.996 0.130 0.346 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.180 0.088 0.066 29 109 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.81 1.00 1.05 1.87 48.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.343 0.132 0.063 0.030 -0.007 0.051 0.031 -0.093 -0.074 -0.180 PACF 0.343 0.015 0.015 0.002 -0.024 0.067 -0.005 -0.124 -0.010 -0.162 95% C.L. 0.170 0.189 0.192 0.192 0.193 0.193 0.193 0.193 0.194 0.195 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.120 0.346 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 0.095 -0.028 -0.032 -0.112 -0.010 -0.006 -0.008 0.015 -0.089 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.396 2 0.425 -0.073 3 0.422 -0.053 -0.047 4 0.422 -0.053 -0.049 0.004 5 0.422 -0.059 -0.055 0.053 -0.115 6 0.433 -0.063 -0.050 0.058 -0.153 0.090 7 0.436 -0.069 -0.048 0.056 -0.155 0.105 -0.036 8 0.436 -0.067 -0.050 0.057 -0.156 0.104 -0.030 -0.013 9 0.436 -0.066 -0.054 0.063 -0.158 0.106 -0.028 -0.028 0.036 10 0.441 -0.071 -0.058 0.078 -0.182 0.115 -0.036 -0.038 0.101 -0.149 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 762.68 741.12 742.37 744.07 746.06 746.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 747.10 748.93 750.91 752.73 751.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.396 0.157 0.062 0.025 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 245001 1 0.257 0.490 2 245002 1 0.244 0.493 3 245003 1 0.171 0.403 4 245004 1 0.181 0.419 5 245005 1 0.359 0.599 6 245006 1 0.368 0.601 7 245007 1 0.275 0.525 8 245008 1 0.275 0.512 9 245009 1 0.355 0.586 10 246010 1 0.102 0.314 11 246011 1 0.269 0.518 12 246012 1 0.235 0.453 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.257 0.493 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.080 0.086 MEDIAN 1 0.263 0.503 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.107 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.102 0.314 LOWER HINGE 1 0.208 0.436 UPPER HINGE 1 0.315 0.555 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.368 0.601 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.175 0.783 7.220 0.173 -0.065 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.192 0.191 3.480 0.219 -0.014 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.173 0.323 4.828 0.188 0.042 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.251 1.535 11.019 0.238 -0.034 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.193 0.441 3.353 0.207 0.006 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.172 0.952 5.791 0.189 -0.064 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.000 0.161 -0.355 3.434 0.174 0.005 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.198 0.598 5.345 0.220 -0.058 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.194 0.356 3.377 0.234 -0.073 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.170 -0.075 3.957 0.186 -0.016 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.179 -0.067 3.336 0.193 0.006 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.159 -0.666 5.591 0.184 -0.077 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.185 0.335 5.061 0.200 -0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.024 0.598 2.260 0.022 0.039 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.177 0.339 4.393 0.191 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.022 0.762 2.285 0.034 0.069 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.159 -0.666 3.336 0.173 -0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.171 -0.071 3.406 0.185 -0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.194 0.690 5.691 0.219 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.251 1.535 11.019 0.238 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.350 0.134 0.016 -0.283 2.490 0.049 0.603 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.049 SERIES 245004 AND 246012 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.603 SERIES 245003 AND 245007 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.272 0.345 0.433 SDEV 0.200 0.209 0.127 SERR 0.052 0.026 0.016 EPS 0.803 0.863 0.902 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.999 0.143 0.029 4.835 0.163 -0.147 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.215 0.087 0.038 32 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.86 1.00 1.11 1.97 42.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.146 -0.062 0.010 -0.009 -0.063 0.047 0.073 -0.081 0.010 -0.080 PACF -0.146 -0.085 -0.012 -0.015 -0.068 0.025 0.077 -0.054 -0.002 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.170 0.174 0.174 0.175 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.177 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.029 -0.147 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.012 -0.086 0.000 -0.016 -0.060 0.051 0.071 -0.072 -0.014 -0.086 PACF -0.012 -0.087 -0.002 -0.024 -0.062 0.046 0.062 -0.064 -0.006 -0.101 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.174 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 -0.012 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.151 0.207 3.812 0.134 0.350 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.347 0.053 0.014 -0.019 -0.038 0.044 0.048 -0.069 -0.084 -0.156 PACF 0.347 -0.077 0.024 -0.032 -0.023 0.075 0.006 -0.101 -0.029 -0.136 95% C.L. 0.170 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.192 0.193 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.129 0.351 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.09 MINUTES