RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust005p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust005p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 245 1 Katscherpass LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 245 2 Austria Norway spruce 1800 4702-1338 1838 1975 - 245 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.017 0.407 0.073 3.741 0.429 0.220 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.637 0.531 1.689 10.402 0.264 0.485 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.244 0.442 0.421 4.199 0.375 0.154 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.679 0.581 2.447 19.496 0.332 -0.019 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.632 0.546 0.339 4.498 0.310 0.221 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.708 0.350 -0.505 4.334 0.222 0.177 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.662 0.487 0.530 2.834 0.230 0.439 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.738 0.455 -0.293 4.567 0.272 0.227 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.848 0.441 -0.756 4.907 0.262 0.174 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.778 0.586 -0.603 3.751 0.387 0.022 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.572 0.740 0.893 4.627 0.441 0.431 12 246012 1881 1975 95 2.510 0.631 4.962 36.884 0.202 0.070 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1838 TO 1975 138 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.669 0.516 0.767 8.687 0.311 0.217 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.354 0.108 1.626 10.011 0.082 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.671 0.509 0.380 4.532 0.291 0.198 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.156 0.142 1.690 3.679 0.135 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.017 0.350 -0.756 2.834 0.202 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.602 0.442 -0.399 3.975 0.246 0.112 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.758 0.584 1.291 7.654 0.381 0.329 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 2.510 0.740 4.962 36.884 0.441 0.485 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.397 0.191 0.023 -0.413 2.457 -0.101 0.740 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.101 SERIES 245007 AND 246011 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.740 SERIES 245005 AND 245007 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.548 0.483 0.501 SDEV 0.106 0.136 0.193 SERR 0.027 0.017 0.024 EPS 0.930 0.918 0.923 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.671 0.372 -0.221 5.627 0.230 0.114 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.114 -0.056 0.513 34 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.65 2.09 1.01 1.25 3.34 70.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 16. 94. 103. 120. 138. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.128 0.197 0.045 0.013 0.062 0.001 0.022 -0.044 0.026 PACF 0.114 0.117 0.175 -0.004 -0.035 0.027 -0.011 0.019 -0.065 0.034 95% C.L. 0.170 0.172 0.175 0.181 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.182 0.183 0.183 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 1 1.23098028 0.16657533 0.00000000 0.95860797 2 245002 1 0.96218330 0.03947037 0.00000000 1.44976497 3 245003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00382459 1.06216192 4 245004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084538 1.62851369 5 245005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00665667 1.23270047 6 245006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055672 1.73752022 7 245007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00834433 1.15750134 8 245008 1 0.48786145 0.09697071 0.00000000 1.70296395 9 245009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183631 1.74626684 10 246010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029468 1.76212478 11 246011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01153771 2.15425444 12 246012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00195395 2.41631579 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.375 -0.188 3.416 0.428 0.056 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.281 0.875 6.816 0.262 0.329 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.342 0.331 4.517 0.371 0.124 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.349 2.690 21.592 0.329 -0.025 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.001 0.301 0.144 6.121 0.307 0.104 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.204 -0.513 4.359 0.220 0.171 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.001 0.246 1.363 7.906 0.228 0.118 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.259 -0.285 4.739 0.270 0.199 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.236 -0.881 4.893 0.260 0.160 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.329 -0.609 3.761 0.384 0.023 11 246011 1876 1975 100 0.999 0.426 0.668 4.223 0.436 0.273 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.246 4.558 32.998 0.200 0.061 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.300 0.680 8.779 0.308 0.133 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.001 0.066 1.572 9.077 0.081 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.291 0.238 4.816 0.289 0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.100 1.518 3.070 0.134 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.204 -0.881 3.416 0.200 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.246 -0.399 4.291 0.244 0.058 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.346 1.119 7.361 0.378 0.185 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.001 0.426 4.558 32.998 0.436 0.329 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 245002 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 245003 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 245004 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 245005 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 245006 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 245007 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 245008 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 245009 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 246010 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 246011 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 246012 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 0.997 0.349 -0.515 3.564 0.428 -0.096 2 245002 1849 1975 127 0.999 0.273 0.806 6.436 0.262 0.283 3 245003 1882 1975 94 0.998 0.329 0.222 4.720 0.371 0.087 4 245004 1858 1975 118 0.999 0.340 2.241 17.815 0.329 -0.044 5 245005 1857 1975 119 0.998 0.282 -0.249 5.762 0.307 0.013 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.202 -0.521 4.420 0.220 0.149 7 245007 1856 1975 120 0.998 0.232 1.194 6.732 0.228 0.047 8 245008 1838 1975 138 0.999 0.255 -0.279 4.872 0.270 0.149 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.234 -0.923 4.925 0.260 0.140 10 246010 1869 1975 107 0.998 0.305 -0.847 4.780 0.383 -0.106 11 246011 1876 1975 100 0.992 0.389 0.335 3.925 0.436 0.116 12 246012 1881 1975 95 0.999 0.211 3.142 21.771 0.201 -0.068 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.998 0.283 0.384 7.477 0.308 0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.002 0.059 1.265 5.887 0.081 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.999 0.277 -0.014 4.899 0.289 0.067 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.001 0.101 1.517 2.014 0.133 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.992 0.202 -0.923 3.564 0.201 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.998 0.233 -0.518 4.570 0.244 -0.056 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.999 0.334 1.000 6.584 0.377 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.389 3.142 21.771 0.436 0.283 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.480 0.146 0.018 -0.336 1.961 0.174 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.174 SERIES 245004 AND 246012 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 245003 AND 245004 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.536 0.506 0.542 SDEV 0.102 0.129 0.155 SERR 0.026 0.016 0.019 EPS 0.927 0.925 0.934 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.987 0.205 -0.329 6.761 0.221 0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.072 0.084 57 81 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.16 1.00 1.11 2.28 37.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.11 0.00 0.82 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 0.049 0.165 -0.023 -0.098 -0.030 -0.064 -0.026 -0.160 -0.078 PACF 0.032 0.048 0.162 -0.036 -0.115 -0.051 -0.044 0.017 -0.153 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.175 0.175 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.182 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.014 0.104 0.088 -0.063 -0.134 -0.056 -0.078 -0.049 -0.106 -0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.014 2 0.012 0.104 3 0.003 0.103 0.087 4 0.010 0.111 0.087 -0.077 5 -0.002 0.124 0.104 -0.075 -0.155 6 -0.010 0.120 0.109 -0.069 -0.155 -0.050 7 -0.012 0.115 0.107 -0.066 -0.151 -0.050 -0.034 8 -0.012 0.114 0.104 -0.067 -0.149 -0.048 -0.035 -0.015 9 -0.014 0.110 0.099 -0.083 -0.156 -0.037 -0.022 -0.017 -0.108 10 -0.021 0.109 0.098 -0.085 -0.167 -0.042 -0.016 -0.009 -0.109 -0.065 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 891.64 893.61 894.12 895.08 896.26 894.91 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 896.57 898.41 900.37 900.75 902.16 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 245001 0 0.009 2 245002 0 0.080 3 245003 0 0.007 4 245004 0 0.002 5 245005 0 0.000 6 245006 0 0.022 7 245007 0 0.002 8 245008 0 0.022 9 245009 0 0.020 10 246010 0 0.011 11 246011 0 0.014 12 246012 0 0.005 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.022 MEDIAN 0 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.021 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.080 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.349 -0.515 3.564 0.426 -0.096 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.273 0.806 6.436 0.261 0.283 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.329 0.222 4.720 0.371 0.087 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.340 2.241 17.815 0.329 -0.044 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.282 -0.249 5.762 0.306 0.013 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.202 -0.521 4.420 0.220 0.149 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.000 0.232 1.194 6.732 0.228 0.047 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.255 -0.279 4.872 0.270 0.149 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.234 -0.923 4.925 0.260 0.140 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.305 -0.847 4.780 0.382 -0.106 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.389 0.335 3.925 0.431 0.116 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.211 3.142 21.771 0.200 -0.068 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.283 0.384 7.477 0.307 0.056 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.059 1.265 5.887 0.080 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.277 -0.014 4.899 0.288 0.067 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.101 1.517 2.014 0.133 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.202 -0.923 3.564 0.200 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.233 -0.518 4.570 0.244 -0.056 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.334 1.000 6.584 0.377 0.144 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.389 3.142 21.771 0.431 0.283 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.480 0.146 0.018 -0.336 1.961 0.174 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.174 SERIES 245004 AND 246012 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 245003 AND 245004 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.536 0.506 0.542 SDEV 0.102 0.129 0.155 SERR 0.026 0.016 0.019 EPS 0.927 0.925 0.934 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.989 0.205 -0.325 6.749 0.221 0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.174 0.072 0.084 56 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.38 1.02 1.13 2.50 36.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 0.049 0.165 -0.023 -0.098 -0.031 -0.064 -0.026 -0.160 -0.078 PACF 0.032 0.048 0.163 -0.036 -0.115 -0.052 -0.043 0.016 -0.153 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.175 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.182 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.989 0.205 -0.325 6.749 0.221 0.033 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 0.049 0.165 -0.023 -0.098 -0.031 -0.064 -0.026 -0.160 -0.078 PACF 0.032 0.048 0.163 -0.036 -0.115 -0.052 -0.043 0.016 -0.153 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.175 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.182 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES