RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust005x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust005x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 245 1 Katscherpass DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCAB - 245 2 Austria Norway spruce 1800 4702-1338 1838 1975 - 245 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 0.645 0.091 -0.503 3.248 0.137 0.192 2 245002 1849 1975 127 0.771 0.073 -1.450 7.347 0.086 0.255 3 245003 1882 1975 94 0.743 0.098 -0.707 4.156 0.128 0.257 4 245004 1858 1975 118 0.744 0.111 -0.396 3.153 0.173 0.049 5 245005 1857 1975 119 0.776 0.080 -1.523 6.247 0.109 0.025 6 245006 1870 1975 106 0.795 0.080 -1.243 4.916 0.090 0.267 7 245007 1856 1975 120 0.810 0.071 -0.548 3.782 0.085 0.201 8 245008 1838 1975 138 0.744 0.084 -0.382 3.942 0.102 0.378 9 245009 1866 1975 110 0.764 0.092 -0.559 3.781 0.120 0.229 10 246010 1869 1975 107 0.720 0.099 -0.641 3.352 0.164 -0.169 11 246011 1876 1975 100 0.711 0.098 -0.485 2.974 0.133 0.226 12 246012 1881 1975 95 0.945 0.073 -1.014 3.797 0.074 0.215 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1838 TO 1975 138 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 0.764 0.087 -0.788 4.225 0.117 0.177 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.071 0.013 0.412 1.328 0.032 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.754 0.088 -0.600 3.790 0.114 0.221 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.054 0.021 0.634 1.236 0.047 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.645 0.071 -1.523 2.974 0.074 -0.169 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.732 0.076 -1.128 3.300 0.088 0.120 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 0.786 0.098 -0.494 4.536 0.135 0.256 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 0.945 0.111 -0.382 7.347 0.173 0.378 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.664 0.078 0.010 -0.277 2.334 0.496 0.811 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.496 SERIES 245002 AND 245007 120 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.811 SERIES 245003 AND 245006 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.624 0.722 0.688 SDEV 0.123 0.086 0.104 SERR 0.032 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.948 0.969 0.964 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.764 0.071 -1.305 6.212 0.096 0.087 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.282 -0.132 0.170 56 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.71 1.00 1.15 1.85 9.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 16. 94. 103. 120. 138. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.086 0.194 0.249 0.012 0.001 0.051 0.013 0.010 -0.002 0.081 PACF 0.086 0.188 0.229 -0.052 -0.093 0.005 0.042 0.023 -0.029 0.073 95% C.L. 0.170 0.172 0.178 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.096 0.027 0.173 0.230 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 1 0.17284243 0.03024774 0.00000000 0.59827793 2 245002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020318 0.78355455 3 245003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079153 0.78100204 4 245004 1 0.09536587 0.04937936 0.00000000 0.72764063 5 245005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051225 0.80703747 6 245006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056085 0.82528841 7 245007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023325 0.79597199 8 245008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094660 0.81013644 9 245009 1 0.22345881 0.09914914 0.00000000 0.74460167 10 246010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025961 0.73401868 11 246011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146439 0.78535151 12 246012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105669 0.99556327 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.127 -0.317 3.767 0.136 -0.072 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.094 -1.425 7.412 0.085 0.242 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.129 -0.645 4.464 0.127 0.214 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.147 -0.316 3.304 0.171 0.010 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.102 -1.372 6.223 0.108 -0.017 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.098 -1.208 5.060 0.089 0.221 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.000 0.087 -0.595 3.984 0.085 0.190 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.102 -0.386 3.902 0.101 0.211 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.109 -0.828 4.004 0.119 0.075 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.138 -0.594 3.317 0.163 -0.175 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.126 -0.259 3.682 0.132 0.036 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.071 -1.053 4.657 0.073 0.074 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.111 -0.750 4.481 0.116 0.084 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.023 0.422 1.232 0.031 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.106 -0.620 3.994 0.113 0.075 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.032 0.779 1.134 0.047 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.071 -1.425 3.304 0.073 -0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.096 -1.131 3.724 0.087 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.128 -0.352 4.858 0.134 0.212 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.147 -0.259 7.412 0.171 0.242 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 245001 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 245002 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 245003 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 245004 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 245005 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 245006 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 245007 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 245008 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 245009 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 246010 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 246011 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 246012 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.123 -0.397 3.785 0.136 -0.167 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.089 -1.464 7.703 0.085 0.124 3 245003 1882 1975 94 0.999 0.120 -0.845 4.829 0.127 0.096 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.143 -0.400 3.197 0.171 -0.055 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.100 -1.430 6.407 0.108 -0.047 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.089 -1.655 7.662 0.089 0.075 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.000 0.083 -0.667 4.649 0.085 0.123 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.100 -0.391 3.834 0.101 0.187 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.104 -0.941 4.291 0.119 -0.012 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.136 -0.613 3.410 0.163 -0.208 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.119 -0.334 3.888 0.132 -0.095 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.069 -1.112 4.633 0.073 0.017 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.106 -0.854 4.857 0.116 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.022 0.468 1.560 0.031 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.102 -0.756 4.462 0.113 0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.033 0.873 1.809 0.047 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.069 -1.655 3.197 0.073 -0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.089 -1.271 3.809 0.087 -0.075 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.121 -0.398 5.618 0.134 0.110 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.143 -0.334 7.703 0.171 0.187 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.688 0.071 0.009 -0.467 2.859 0.514 0.813 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.514 SERIES 245008 AND 246011 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.813 SERIES 245002 AND 245003 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.644 0.729 0.707 SDEV 0.097 0.083 0.098 SERR 0.025 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.952 0.970 0.967 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.999 0.084 -1.245 6.542 0.091 -0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.038 -0.012 0.067 38 100 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.60 1.13 1.01 1.12 2.24 6.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.09 0.00 0.81 0.90 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.047 0.112 0.166 -0.115 -0.093 -0.044 -0.093 -0.063 -0.095 0.024 PACF -0.047 0.110 0.179 -0.115 -0.153 -0.062 -0.027 -0.028 -0.101 0.023 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.177 0.179 0.181 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.185 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.081 0.113 0.192 -0.144 -0.092 -0.066 -0.100 -0.038 -0.081 0.048 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.081 2 -0.072 0.108 3 -0.095 0.123 0.213 4 -0.068 0.139 0.201 -0.130 5 -0.090 0.174 0.225 -0.142 -0.175 6 -0.108 0.160 0.248 -0.124 -0.184 -0.102 7 -0.111 0.156 0.245 -0.118 -0.181 -0.105 -0.023 8 -0.110 0.157 0.248 -0.117 -0.184 -0.107 -0.021 0.013 9 -0.109 0.155 0.240 -0.131 -0.193 -0.088 -0.010 0.005 -0.075 10 -0.107 0.155 0.240 -0.128 -0.187 -0.084 -0.016 0.001 -0.071 0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 667.99 669.08 669.47 665.04 664.69 662.39 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 662.94 664.87 666.85 668.08 669.96 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.090 0.174 0.225 -0.142 -0.175 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.97 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.090 0.182 0.193 -0.148 -0.074 0.014 -0.107 -0.017 0.023 -.0182 0.014 0.022 -0.004 0.006 0.005 -0.006 -0.001 0.000 -0.003 0.0001 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 245001 5 0.140 -0.174 0.230 0.260 -0.087 -0.167 2 245002 5 0.058 0.097 0.122 0.100 0.018 -0.088 3 245003 5 0.065 0.091 0.048 0.145 -0.070 -0.062 4 245004 5 0.057 -0.060 0.151 0.157 -0.091 -0.077 5 245005 5 0.057 -0.056 0.154 0.154 -0.084 -0.096 6 245006 5 0.086 0.069 0.080 0.153 -0.103 -0.051 7 245007 5 0.076 0.119 0.108 0.157 -0.169 -0.003 8 245008 5 0.146 0.129 0.175 0.211 -0.126 -0.217 9 245009 5 0.162 -0.055 0.230 0.231 -0.162 -0.284 10 246010 5 0.128 -0.208 0.152 0.253 -0.055 -0.151 11 246011 5 0.077 -0.097 0.191 0.147 -0.140 -0.098 12 246012 5 0.082 0.011 0.123 0.064 -0.256 -0.052 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.094 -0.011 0.147 0.169 -0.111 -0.112 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.039 0.115 0.055 0.059 0.068 0.079 MEDIAN 5 0.080 -0.022 0.152 0.155 -0.097 -0.092 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 0.172 0.068 0.075 0.074 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.057 -0.208 0.048 0.064 -0.256 -0.284 LOWER HINGE 5 0.061 -0.078 0.115 0.146 -0.151 -0.159 UPPER HINGE 5 0.134 0.094 0.183 0.221 -0.077 -0.057 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.162 0.129 0.230 0.260 0.018 -0.003 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 245001 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.114 -0.389 3.449 0.121 -0.015 2 245002 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.086 -1.580 8.194 0.089 -0.010 3 245003 1882 1975 94 1.000 0.118 -0.880 4.953 0.130 -0.010 4 245004 1858 1975 118 1.000 0.139 -0.399 3.231 0.164 -0.005 5 245005 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.098 -1.398 6.251 0.105 -0.006 6 245006 1870 1975 106 1.000 0.087 -1.748 8.116 0.091 -0.011 7 245007 1856 1975 120 1.000 0.080 -0.853 4.889 0.087 -0.001 8 245008 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.093 -0.386 3.679 0.102 -0.009 9 245009 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.096 -0.766 4.260 0.110 -0.024 10 246010 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.127 -0.434 2.976 0.145 -0.007 11 246011 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.114 -0.206 3.314 0.121 0.008 12 246012 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.066 -0.975 4.595 0.070 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.000 0.101 -0.834 4.825 0.111 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 13 0.000 0.021 0.511 1.811 0.027 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.097 -0.810 4.427 0.108 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.029 0.792 2.221 0.036 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.066 -1.748 2.976 0.070 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.087 -1.186 3.381 0.090 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 119 1.000 0.116 -0.394 5.602 0.126 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.139 -0.206 8.194 0.164 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.661 0.075 0.009 -0.191 2.571 0.490 0.816 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.490 SERIES 245009 AND 246011 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.816 SERIES 245002 AND 245003 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.94 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 15. 66. 66. RBAR 0.628 0.712 0.682 SDEV 0.096 0.087 0.098 SERR 0.025 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.949 0.967 0.963 NSS 10.9 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.079 -1.254 6.159 0.086 -0.071 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.054 -0.019 0.072 27 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 1.72 1.00 1.10 2.82 347.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.071 0.012 0.016 -0.041 -0.043 -0.027 -0.008 -0.015 -0.110 -0.001 PACF -0.071 0.007 0.017 -0.039 -0.049 -0.033 -0.010 -0.016 -0.116 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.174 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.005 -0.009 -0.031 -0.005 -0.015 -0.115 -0.020 PACF -0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.005 -0.009 -0.031 -0.005 -0.015 -0.115 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.173 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.001 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.005 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.083 -1.215 6.493 0.091 -0.067 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.066 0.127 0.177 -0.133 -0.096 -0.047 -0.107 -0.056 -0.093 0.035 PACF -0.066 0.123 0.197 -0.129 -0.175 -0.069 -0.027 -0.016 -0.101 0.030 95% C.L. 0.170 0.171 0.174 0.179 0.182 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.187 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.108 -0.079 0.186 0.215 -0.145 -0.175 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES