RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust006p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust006p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 247 1 Mariazell, Gemeindealpe LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 247 2 Austria Norway spruce 1380 4747-1518 1832 1975 - 247 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 247001 1832 1972 141 2.043 0.452 0.406 3.059 0.222 0.207 2 247002 1837 1975 139 1.446 0.445 1.415 6.748 0.286 0.163 3 247003 1841 1975 135 1.789 0.627 0.760 5.377 0.352 0.056 4 247004 1843 1975 133 1.644 0.558 0.072 3.454 0.376 0.230 5 247005 1835 1975 141 1.587 0.332 0.386 3.048 0.242 -0.030 6 247006 1844 1975 132 1.973 0.509 0.287 2.319 0.258 0.269 7 247007 1843 1975 133 1.650 0.368 0.669 3.356 0.220 0.173 8 248008 1841 1975 135 1.752 0.478 0.500 4.233 0.269 0.191 9 248011 1905 1975 71 1.775 0.575 0.939 5.350 0.266 0.393 10 248012 1854 1975 122 1.784 0.480 1.238 4.867 0.266 0.149 11 248013 1924 1975 52 1.535 0.415 0.306 2.819 0.237 0.404 12 248014 1837 1975 139 1.855 0.561 1.525 6.563 0.276 0.156 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1832 TO 1975 144 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 123 1.736 0.483 0.709 4.266 0.273 0.197 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.174 0.088 0.475 1.493 0.048 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 1.763 0.479 0.584 3.843 0.266 0.182 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.206 0.129 0.742 2.310 0.041 0.097 MINIMUM VALUE 52 1.446 0.332 0.072 2.319 0.220 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 127 1.616 0.430 0.346 3.054 0.240 0.152 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 1.822 0.560 1.089 5.364 0.281 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 2.043 0.627 1.525 6.748 0.376 0.404 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.236 0.154 0.019 -0.623 2.604 -0.173 0.463 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.173 SERIES 247006 AND 248013 52 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.463 SERIES 247001 AND 247004 130 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 45. 45. 55. RBAR 0.263 0.309 0.324 SDEV 0.145 0.177 0.151 SERR 0.022 0.026 0.020 EPS 0.785 0.831 0.850 NSS 10.2 11.0 11.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1975 144 1.729 0.292 0.393 3.159 0.188 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.420 0.262 -0.038 34 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 1.66 1.00 1.13 2.79 8.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 134. 12. 52. 127. 139. 141. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.063 0.031 0.052 -0.136 -0.092 0.058 0.014 0.016 0.036 PACF 0.004 -0.063 0.032 0.048 -0.134 -0.086 0.041 0.010 0.040 0.026 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.171 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 247001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00162306 2.15849948 2 247002 1 0.61788177 0.01450271 0.00000000 1.18178165 3 247003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042840 1.81824207 4 247004 1 0.87611270 0.01407232 0.00000000 1.25099099 5 247005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072914 1.53525233 6 247006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00210023 1.83298635 7 247007 1 0.43069842 0.03985718 0.00000000 1.57106173 8 248008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00500551 1.41132891 9 248011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01496512 2.31339240 10 248012 1 0.42613482 0.02296160 0.00000000 1.64252830 11 248013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01268932 1.19873297 12 248014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056705 1.81498277 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 247001 1832 1972 141 1.000 0.218 0.364 3.067 0.220 0.197 2 247002 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.294 1.685 8.515 0.284 0.060 3 247003 1841 1975 135 1.000 0.350 0.743 5.372 0.350 0.056 4 247004 1843 1975 133 1.000 0.323 -0.001 3.398 0.373 0.078 5 247005 1835 1975 141 1.000 0.208 0.379 2.961 0.241 -0.035 6 247006 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.254 0.285 2.291 0.256 0.244 7 247007 1843 1975 133 1.000 0.213 0.516 2.951 0.219 0.092 8 248008 1841 1975 135 1.000 0.255 1.004 7.089 0.268 0.030 9 248011 1905 1975 71 0.999 0.276 1.054 5.815 0.262 0.111 10 248012 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.260 1.135 4.634 0.264 0.089 11 248013 1924 1975 52 1.000 0.248 0.798 3.768 0.233 0.234 12 248014 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.303 1.546 6.583 0.275 0.156 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 123 1.000 0.267 0.792 4.704 0.270 0.109 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.044 0.515 1.968 0.048 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.258 0.771 4.201 0.263 0.091 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.065 0.723 3.185 0.042 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 52 0.999 0.208 -0.001 2.291 0.219 -0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.233 0.371 3.014 0.237 0.058 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.299 1.094 6.199 0.279 0.177 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.350 1.685 8.515 0.373 0.244 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 247001 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 247002 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 247003 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 247004 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 247005 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 247006 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 247007 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 248008 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 248011 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 248012 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 248013 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 248014 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 247001 1832 1972 141 0.999 0.212 0.470 3.124 0.220 0.117 2 247002 1837 1975 139 0.999 0.288 1.618 7.715 0.284 0.024 3 247003 1841 1975 135 0.999 0.341 0.634 5.089 0.350 0.011 4 247004 1843 1975 133 0.996 0.296 -0.175 3.730 0.373 -0.083 5 247005 1835 1975 141 0.999 0.202 0.374 2.945 0.241 -0.098 6 247006 1844 1975 132 0.999 0.228 0.225 2.504 0.256 0.065 7 247007 1843 1975 133 0.999 0.204 0.504 2.941 0.219 0.022 8 248008 1841 1975 135 1.000 0.252 0.929 6.854 0.268 0.016 9 248011 1905 1975 71 0.999 0.260 0.732 4.979 0.261 0.041 10 248012 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.259 1.238 5.056 0.264 0.071 11 248013 1924 1975 52 0.998 0.238 0.842 3.936 0.233 0.163 12 248014 1837 1975 139 0.999 0.300 1.649 7.353 0.274 0.130 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 123 0.999 0.257 0.753 4.686 0.270 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.001 0.043 0.545 1.812 0.047 0.078 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 0.999 0.255 0.683 4.458 0.263 0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.001 0.072 0.662 2.937 0.042 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 52 0.996 0.202 -0.175 2.504 0.219 -0.098 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 127 0.999 0.220 0.422 3.034 0.237 0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 0.999 0.292 1.084 5.972 0.279 0.094 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.341 1.649 7.715 0.373 0.163 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.271 0.151 0.019 -0.490 2.257 -0.076 0.494 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.076 SERIES 248011 AND 248014 71 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.494 SERIES 247006 AND 248012 122 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 45. 45. 55. RBAR 0.278 0.338 0.333 SDEV 0.146 0.162 0.157 SERR 0.022 0.024 0.021 EPS 0.797 0.849 0.855 NSS 10.2 11.0 11.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1975 144 0.989 0.162 0.183 2.827 0.191 -0.041 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.360 0.196 -0.006 41 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 1.52 1.00 1.08 2.60 116.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.040 -0.088 -0.030 0.024 -0.159 -0.131 0.058 -0.029 -0.004 0.051 PACF -0.040 -0.090 -0.038 0.014 -0.166 -0.150 0.015 -0.069 -0.013 0.022 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.176 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.048 -0.044 0.008 0.046 -0.212 -0.173 0.037 -0.063 -0.011 -0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.048 2 -0.051 -0.047 3 -0.050 -0.046 0.003 4 -0.051 -0.044 0.005 0.045 5 -0.041 -0.043 -0.004 0.035 -0.208 6 -0.082 -0.036 -0.005 0.026 -0.216 -0.198 7 -0.083 -0.037 -0.004 0.026 -0.216 -0.199 -0.004 8 -0.084 -0.054 -0.022 0.028 -0.217 -0.202 -0.011 -0.083 9 -0.084 -0.054 -0.024 0.027 -0.216 -0.202 -0.011 -0.083 -0.006 10 -0.084 -0.058 -0.024 0.016 -0.228 -0.200 -0.013 -0.086 -0.010 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 858.49 860.15 861.84 863.84 865.55 861.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 857.42 859.41 860.42 862.41 864.02 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.082 -0.036 -0.005 0.026 -0.216 -0.198 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.51 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.082 -0.030 0.001 0.027 -0.220 -0.164 0.044 0.010 -0.013 0.0385 0.078 0.015 -0.015 0.002 -0.003 -0.024 -0.017 0.003 0.003 -.0006 0.005 0.008 0.002 -0.002 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 247001 6 0.085 0.111 -0.014 0.258 0.013 0.020 -0.134 2 247002 6 0.020 0.022 0.000 0.079 -0.001 -0.022 -0.079 3 247003 6 0.055 0.009 -0.015 0.120 0.074 -0.137 -0.058 4 247004 6 0.038 -0.088 -0.029 0.009 -0.001 -0.038 -0.114 5 247005 6 0.016 -0.099 0.009 0.046 0.003 -0.022 -0.034 6 247006 6 0.053 0.058 -0.113 0.011 -0.039 -0.150 -0.069 7 247007 6 0.057 0.025 -0.069 0.177 0.061 -0.066 -0.108 8 248008 6 0.058 -0.012 0.116 0.084 0.036 -0.142 -0.152 9 248011 6 0.053 0.048 0.000 -0.103 -0.088 0.057 -0.183 10 248012 6 0.079 0.090 -0.185 0.072 -0.031 -0.070 -0.110 11 248013 6 0.255 0.109 0.167 0.108 -0.365 -0.074 -0.080 12 248014 6 0.036 0.130 0.085 -0.074 0.080 -0.029 -0.044 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.067 0.034 -0.004 0.066 -0.022 -0.056 -0.097 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.074 0.096 0.100 0.119 0.064 0.045 MEDIAN 6 0.054 0.037 -0.007 0.076 0.001 -0.052 -0.094 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.031 0.101 0.095 0.104 0.083 0.084 0.060 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.016 -0.099 -0.185 -0.103 -0.365 -0.150 -0.183 LOWER HINGE 6 0.037 -0.001 -0.049 0.010 -0.035 -0.106 -0.124 UPPER HINGE 6 0.069 0.099 0.047 0.114 0.048 -0.022 -0.064 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.255 0.130 0.167 0.258 0.080 0.057 -0.034 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 247001 1832 1972 141 1.000 0.203 0.515 3.087 0.221 0.007 2 247002 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.286 1.559 7.729 0.291 -0.006 3 247003 1841 1975 135 1.000 0.333 0.555 5.064 0.342 0.005 4 247004 1843 1975 133 1.000 0.293 -0.164 3.634 0.353 0.014 5 247005 1835 1975 141 1.000 0.201 0.414 3.027 0.226 0.001 6 247006 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.223 0.265 2.507 0.260 0.005 7 247007 1843 1975 133 1.000 0.198 0.496 2.844 0.215 0.003 8 248008 1841 1975 135 1.000 0.243 1.009 7.143 0.263 -0.006 9 248011 1905 1975 71 1.000 0.252 0.525 4.652 0.264 0.007 10 248012 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.250 1.080 4.749 0.268 -0.015 11 248013 1924 1975 52 1.000 0.211 0.627 3.039 0.238 -0.025 12 248014 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.295 1.591 7.159 0.295 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 123 1.000 0.249 0.706 4.553 0.270 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.000 0.044 0.515 1.874 0.044 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 134 1.000 0.247 0.540 4.143 0.264 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.083 0.589 3.071 0.061 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 52 1.000 0.198 -0.164 2.507 0.215 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 127 1.000 0.207 0.455 3.033 0.232 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.289 1.044 6.104 0.293 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 141 1.000 0.333 1.591 7.729 0.353 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.266 0.144 0.018 -0.632 2.636 -0.116 0.475 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.116 SERIES 247001 AND 248013 49 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.475 SERIES 247005 AND 247006 132 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.58 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 45. 45. 55. RBAR 0.254 0.321 0.314 SDEV 0.140 0.162 0.155 SERR 0.021 0.024 0.021 EPS 0.777 0.839 0.844 NSS 10.2 11.0 11.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1975 144 0.991 0.157 0.216 2.880 0.183 -0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.382 0.209 -0.020 42 102 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.11 1.00 1.13 2.24 10.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.06 0.00 0.85 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 -0.063 -0.102 -0.015 -0.119 -0.021 0.043 -0.015 0.005 0.002 PACF -0.053 -0.066 -0.110 -0.032 -0.140 -0.056 0.012 -0.049 -0.012 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.168 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.006 0.000 -0.009 -0.011 0.003 -0.044 -0.026 -0.015 PACF 0.000 -0.001 -0.006 0.000 -0.009 -0.011 0.003 -0.045 -0.026 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.006 0.000 -0.009 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1975 144 0.991 0.160 0.107 2.699 0.189 -0.049 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 -0.032 0.009 0.037 -0.202 -0.162 0.029 -0.045 -0.014 0.029 PACF -0.049 -0.034 0.006 0.037 -0.199 -0.187 -0.006 -0.056 -0.008 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.179 0.179 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES