RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust008l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust008l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 251 1 Stubaital, Milderaun Alm WIDTH_LATE PICE - 251 2 Austria Swiss stone pine, Arolla pine 1850 4708-1117 1822 1975 - 251 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 251011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.414 0.261 2.121 8.809 0.392 0.535 2 251008 1832 1975 144 0.346 0.373 3.116 13.393 0.495 0.746 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.158 0.097 1.218 4.119 0.515 0.348 4 251010 1881 1975 95 0.231 0.131 1.038 3.891 0.564 0.299 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.134 0.126 2.063 7.187 0.544 0.539 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.095 0.061 1.800 6.738 0.513 0.456 7 251016 1842 1975 134 0.154 0.152 2.486 10.026 0.609 0.579 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.284 0.277 1.979 7.873 0.504 0.769 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1822 TO 1975 154 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.227 0.185 1.977 7.754 0.517 0.534 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.112 0.107 0.663 3.107 0.063 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.194 0.141 2.021 7.530 0.514 0.537 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.171 0.157 0.794 3.989 0.055 0.260 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.095 0.061 1.038 3.891 0.392 0.299 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.144 0.112 1.509 5.429 0.500 0.402 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.315 0.269 2.303 9.417 0.554 0.662 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.414 0.373 3.116 13.393 0.609 0.769 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.329 0.169 0.032 0.770 4.821 0.008 0.844 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.008 SERIES 251006 AND 251016 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.844 SERIES 251011 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.215 0.283 0.293 SDEV 0.310 0.162 0.198 SERR 0.098 0.035 0.037 EPS 0.659 0.759 0.768 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.206 0.124 1.454 5.973 0.432 0.500 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.723 0.567 0.011 60 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.02 9.49 1.00 1.37 10.87 685.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.20 0.00 0.80 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 34. 95. 110. 144. 154. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.497 0.515 0.398 0.432 0.556 0.523 0.503 0.393 0.414 0.403 PACF 0.497 0.356 0.086 0.161 0.357 0.186 0.083 -0.040 0.051 0.006 95% C.L. 0.161 0.197 0.229 0.246 0.265 0.294 0.317 0.337 0.349 0.362 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.349 0.320 0.357 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066882 0.46244755 2 251008 1 0.93245471 0.02623312 0.00000000 0.10765165 3 251009 1 0.18855496 0.03379513 0.00000000 0.10557885 4 251010 1 0.18553936 0.01882121 0.00000000 0.14545739 5 251011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 251014 1 0.20481487 0.06023264 0.00000000 0.07338572 7 251016 1 0.44746065 0.02530635 0.00000000 0.02805610 8 251018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00391931 0.51885629 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.999 0.638 2.294 9.726 0.389 0.535 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.015 0.653 2.063 7.595 0.491 0.427 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.570 1.878 8.608 0.510 0.218 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.534 0.951 3.633 0.558 0.195 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.001 0.516 1.137 5.076 0.540 0.051 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.478 1.221 6.503 0.510 0.165 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.014 0.546 1.080 4.307 0.606 -0.068 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.983 0.869 2.442 9.810 0.498 0.704 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.002 0.600 1.633 6.907 0.513 0.278 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.010 0.123 0.600 2.412 0.063 0.257 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.558 1.549 7.049 0.510 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.008 0.121 1.070 4.476 0.054 0.373 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.983 0.478 0.951 3.633 0.389 -0.068 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.525 1.109 4.692 0.495 0.108 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.007 0.645 2.178 9.167 0.549 0.481 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.015 0.869 2.442 9.810 0.606 0.704 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 251008 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 251009 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 251010 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 251011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 251014 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 251016 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 251018 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.990 0.531 1.749 6.633 0.391 0.433 2 251008 1832 1975 144 0.987 0.578 2.106 8.654 0.492 0.376 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.990 0.522 1.450 5.949 0.509 0.172 4 251010 1881 1975 95 0.997 0.512 0.850 3.587 0.558 0.157 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.998 0.508 1.086 4.880 0.540 0.042 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.992 0.446 0.843 4.856 0.509 0.078 7 251016 1842 1975 134 0.998 0.520 0.931 3.847 0.606 -0.093 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.986 0.824 2.240 8.810 0.498 0.651 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.992 0.555 1.407 5.902 0.513 0.227 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.005 0.114 0.568 2.010 0.062 0.242 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.991 0.521 1.268 5.414 0.509 0.164 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.009 0.044 1.037 3.292 0.054 0.344 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.986 0.446 0.843 3.587 0.391 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.988 0.510 0.890 4.351 0.495 0.060 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.998 0.554 1.928 7.643 0.549 0.405 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.998 0.824 2.240 8.810 0.606 0.651 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.273 0.141 0.027 -0.206 3.225 -0.015 0.532 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.015 SERIES 251010 AND 251018 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.532 SERIES 251011 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.211 0.302 0.324 SDEV 0.261 0.168 0.190 SERR 0.083 0.037 0.036 EPS 0.654 0.775 0.793 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.959 0.341 0.835 3.781 0.393 -0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.467 0.274 0.084 37 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.27 4.07 1.02 1.16 5.23 15.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.15 0.00 0.81 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.098 0.014 -0.074 0.085 0.061 0.043 -0.155 -0.109 -0.147 PACF -0.004 0.098 0.015 -0.085 0.083 0.079 0.028 -0.183 -0.113 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.169 0.171 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.114 0.120 0.079 -0.055 -0.031 0.032 0.000 -0.175 -0.157 -0.159 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.114 2 0.102 0.108 3 0.095 0.102 0.056 4 0.100 0.111 0.064 -0.083 5 0.097 0.113 0.068 -0.080 -0.034 6 0.099 0.117 0.064 -0.086 -0.039 0.051 7 0.099 0.118 0.065 -0.086 -0.040 0.050 0.010 8 0.100 0.127 0.057 -0.103 -0.027 0.072 0.029 -0.193 9 0.073 0.131 0.068 -0.107 -0.042 0.081 0.047 -0.179 -0.144 10 0.059 0.115 0.072 -0.099 -0.046 0.071 0.053 -0.166 -0.137 -0.093 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1040.87 1040.86 1041.05 1042.56 1043.49 1045.31 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1046.92 1048.90 1045.06 1043.82 1044.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.114 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.114 0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 251006 1 0.195 0.434 2 251008 1 0.145 0.377 3 251009 1 0.055 0.172 4 251010 1 0.026 0.158 5 251011 1 0.046 0.043 6 251014 1 0.030 0.083 7 251016 1 0.011 -0.094 8 251018 1 0.437 0.656 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.118 0.229 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.144 0.243 MEDIAN 1 0.050 0.165 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.342 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.011 -0.094 LOWER HINGE 1 0.028 0.063 UPPER HINGE 1 0.170 0.405 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.437 0.656 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.478 1.831 8.356 0.474 -0.040 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.535 1.491 5.615 0.555 0.022 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.514 1.491 6.217 0.535 -0.028 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.505 0.801 3.401 0.586 -0.003 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.508 1.091 4.901 0.553 -0.008 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.445 0.816 4.486 0.522 -0.007 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.517 0.936 3.886 0.581 -0.005 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.001 0.619 1.877 8.169 0.636 0.077 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.515 1.292 5.629 0.555 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.001 0.050 0.439 1.854 0.048 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.511 1.291 5.258 0.554 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.034 0.785 3.007 0.055 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.445 0.801 3.401 0.474 -0.040 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.492 0.876 4.186 0.528 -0.018 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.526 1.661 7.193 0.583 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.001 0.619 1.877 8.356 0.636 0.077 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.323 0.124 0.023 -0.274 2.721 0.065 0.532 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.065 SERIES 251006 AND 251009 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.532 SERIES 251011 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.243 0.356 0.392 SDEV 0.222 0.149 0.174 SERR 0.070 0.032 0.033 EPS 0.694 0.815 0.837 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.977 0.343 0.791 3.775 0.431 -0.190 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.504 0.277 0.057 27 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.97 2.83 1.05 1.15 3.98 12.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.14 0.00 0.80 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.189 0.093 0.005 -0.084 0.066 0.039 0.097 -0.167 -0.058 -0.091 PACF -0.189 0.059 0.034 -0.086 0.035 0.074 0.117 -0.158 -0.136 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.161 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.176 0.176 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.039 -0.190 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.062 0.008 -0.075 0.062 0.074 0.078 -0.170 -0.113 -0.127 PACF 0.010 0.062 0.007 -0.079 0.063 0.083 0.071 -0.193 -0.118 -0.098 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.170 0.172 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.976 0.340 0.770 3.725 0.368 0.129 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.128 0.074 0.010 -0.063 0.063 0.086 0.065 -0.173 -0.147 -0.159 PACF 0.128 0.059 -0.007 -0.069 0.081 0.080 0.037 -0.211 -0.108 -0.101 95% C.L. 0.161 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.172 0.176 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.65 MINUTES