RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust008n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust008n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 251 1 Stubaital, Milderaun Alm DENSITY_MINIMUM PICE - 251 2 Austria Swiss stone pine, Arolla pine 1850 4708-1117 1822 1975 - 251 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 4 251010 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1928 1932 / 1946 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 251018 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.350 0.025 0.559 4.763 0.048 0.584 2 251008 1832 1975 144 0.323 0.025 2.241 16.818 0.059 0.326 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.296 0.023 0.793 3.411 0.051 0.610 4 251010 1881 1975 95 0.294 0.017 0.302 4.174 0.044 0.514 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.307 0.023 1.297 8.214 0.071 0.107 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.295 0.021 0.296 2.776 0.068 0.263 7 251016 1842 1975 134 0.300 0.018 0.177 3.045 0.052 0.346 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.317 0.035 0.862 3.392 0.060 0.721 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1822 TO 1975 154 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 127 0.310 0.023 0.816 5.824 0.057 0.434 STANDARD DEVIATION 24 0.019 0.006 0.684 4.769 0.009 0.206 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.303 0.023 0.676 3.793 0.056 0.430 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.024 0.006 0.781 3.269 0.015 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 84 0.294 0.017 0.177 2.776 0.044 0.107 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 108 0.296 0.019 0.299 3.219 0.049 0.295 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.320 0.025 1.080 6.488 0.064 0.597 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.350 0.035 2.241 16.818 0.071 0.721 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.144 0.186 0.035 -0.432 2.698 -0.264 0.490 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 251014 AND 251018 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.490 SERIES 251011 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.302 0.172 0.120 SDEV 0.156 0.280 0.175 SERR 0.049 0.061 0.033 EPS 0.753 0.624 0.521 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.308 0.014 0.077 3.438 0.043 0.252 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.180 0.154 -0.024 43 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.33 2.52 1.00 1.75 4.27 15.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.19 0.00 0.78 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 34. 95. 110. 144. 154. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.250 0.309 0.244 0.186 0.203 0.204 0.185 0.143 0.305 0.280 PACF 0.250 0.263 0.138 0.049 0.081 0.090 0.057 0.001 0.212 0.159 95% C.L. 0.161 0.171 0.185 0.193 0.198 0.203 0.208 0.213 0.215 0.226 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.153 0.143 0.238 0.155 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006354 0.34497669 2 251008 1 0.03723781 0.06914475 0.00000000 0.31895757 3 251009 1 0.05980612 0.07374077 0.00000000 0.28851900 4 251010 1 0.04854381 0.10713692 0.00000000 0.28976962 5 251011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013933 0.31637159 6 251014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005821 0.29035905 7 251016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015646 0.31041184 8 251018 1 0.11811493 0.00981154 0.00000000 0.24672042 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.070 0.639 4.909 0.048 0.576 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.073 2.324 17.593 0.059 0.270 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.065 1.252 6.190 0.050 0.438 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.045 -0.413 3.136 0.044 0.231 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.073 1.791 10.741 0.070 0.052 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.070 0.268 2.887 0.067 0.249 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.055 0.400 3.265 0.052 0.247 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.078 0.732 4.282 0.059 0.517 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.066 0.874 6.625 0.056 0.323 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.011 0.879 5.117 0.009 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.070 0.686 4.596 0.056 0.260 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.013 1.188 5.265 0.014 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.045 -0.413 2.887 0.044 0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.060 0.334 3.201 0.049 0.239 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.073 1.522 8.466 0.063 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.078 2.324 17.593 0.070 0.576 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 251008 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 251009 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 251010 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 251011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 251014 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 251016 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 251018 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.057 0.546 5.134 0.048 0.365 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.071 2.520 19.259 0.059 0.226 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.061 1.229 6.080 0.051 0.357 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.042 -0.507 3.506 0.044 0.101 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.067 2.216 14.064 0.070 -0.130 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.059 0.149 2.935 0.068 -0.040 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.049 0.302 2.966 0.052 0.053 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.075 0.763 4.467 0.059 0.475 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.060 0.902 7.301 0.056 0.176 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.011 1.036 6.038 0.009 0.214 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.060 0.654 4.801 0.056 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.016 1.497 6.836 0.014 0.354 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.042 -0.507 2.935 0.044 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.053 0.225 3.236 0.049 0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.069 1.722 10.072 0.063 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.075 2.520 19.259 0.070 0.475 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.143 0.131 0.025 0.423 3.355 -0.110 0.456 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.110 SERIES 251016 AND 251018 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.456 SERIES 251014 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.270 0.204 0.153 SDEV 0.178 0.213 0.170 SERR 0.056 0.046 0.032 EPS 0.723 0.672 0.591 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.998 0.033 0.307 3.017 0.039 -0.090 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.025 -0.017 0.060 40 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.64 3.21 1.01 1.18 4.39 26.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.14 0.00 0.81 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 0.038 0.036 -0.100 -0.059 0.011 -0.062 -0.032 0.122 0.134 PACF -0.089 0.030 0.042 -0.096 -0.080 0.005 -0.049 -0.049 0.108 0.165 95% C.L. 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.168 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.109 0.025 0.049 -0.022 -0.015 0.045 -0.038 -0.118 0.133 0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.109 2 -0.108 0.013 3 -0.108 0.019 0.054 4 -0.108 0.019 0.053 -0.011 5 -0.108 0.021 0.053 -0.014 -0.021 6 -0.107 0.021 0.051 -0.015 -0.016 0.040 7 -0.106 0.021 0.051 -0.013 -0.016 0.037 -0.026 8 -0.110 0.025 0.049 -0.015 -0.009 0.040 -0.040 -0.128 9 -0.096 0.030 0.044 -0.014 -0.008 0.034 -0.043 -0.116 0.107 10 -0.102 0.036 0.047 -0.016 -0.007 0.035 -0.045 -0.118 0.113 0.058 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 299.78 299.94 301.91 303.46 305.44 307.38 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 309.13 311.03 310.48 310.70 312.18 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 251006 0 0.134 2 251008 0 0.051 3 251009 0 0.128 4 251010 0 0.011 5 251011 0 0.017 6 251014 0 0.002 7 251016 0 0.003 8 251018 0 0.227 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 MEDIAN 0 0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.002 LOWER HINGE 0 0.007 UPPER HINGE 0 0.131 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.057 0.546 5.134 0.048 0.365 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.071 2.520 19.259 0.059 0.226 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.061 1.229 6.080 0.051 0.357 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.042 -0.507 3.506 0.044 0.101 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.067 2.216 14.064 0.070 -0.130 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.059 0.149 2.935 0.068 -0.040 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.049 0.302 2.966 0.052 0.053 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.075 0.763 4.467 0.059 0.475 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.060 0.902 7.301 0.056 0.176 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.011 1.036 6.038 0.009 0.214 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.060 0.654 4.801 0.056 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.016 1.497 6.836 0.014 0.354 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.042 -0.507 2.935 0.044 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.053 0.225 3.236 0.049 0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.069 1.722 10.072 0.063 0.361 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.075 2.520 19.259 0.070 0.475 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.143 0.131 0.025 0.423 3.355 -0.110 0.456 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.110 SERIES 251016 AND 251018 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.456 SERIES 251014 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.270 0.204 0.153 SDEV 0.178 0.213 0.170 SERR 0.056 0.046 0.032 EPS 0.723 0.672 0.591 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.999 0.033 0.308 3.021 0.039 -0.089 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.027 -0.018 0.061 40 114 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.66 3.23 1.00 1.17 4.40 26.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.14 0.00 0.81 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 0.038 0.036 -0.100 -0.059 0.011 -0.061 -0.032 0.122 0.134 PACF -0.089 0.031 0.043 -0.096 -0.080 0.005 -0.048 -0.049 0.108 0.165 95% C.L. 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.168 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.999 0.033 0.308 3.021 0.039 -0.089 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 0.038 0.036 -0.100 -0.059 0.011 -0.061 -0.032 0.122 0.134 PACF -0.089 0.031 0.043 -0.096 -0.080 0.005 -0.048 -0.049 0.108 0.165 95% C.L. 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.168 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES