RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust008p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust008p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 251 1 Stubaital, Milderaun Alm LATEWOOD_PERCENT PICE - 251 2 Austria Swiss stone pine, Arolla pine 1850 4708-1117 1822 1975 - 251 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 251011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 2.955 1.079 0.725 3.402 0.309 0.446 2 251008 1832 1975 144 2.324 1.141 1.368 5.139 0.439 0.382 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.221 0.632 0.752 3.215 0.538 0.238 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.348 0.646 0.413 2.540 0.528 0.239 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.500 0.679 0.606 3.801 0.548 -0.062 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.231 0.631 1.077 4.550 0.515 0.308 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.412 0.655 0.574 3.423 0.582 -0.015 8 251018 1857 1975 119 2.042 1.303 1.374 5.707 0.444 0.572 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1822 TO 1975 154 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.754 0.846 0.861 3.972 0.488 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.627 0.279 0.367 1.068 0.088 0.217 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.456 0.667 0.739 3.612 0.522 0.274 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.893 0.471 0.632 1.536 0.102 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.221 0.631 0.413 2.540 0.309 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.290 0.639 0.590 3.309 0.441 0.112 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 2.183 1.110 1.222 4.845 0.543 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 2.955 1.303 1.374 5.707 0.582 0.572 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.183 0.146 0.028 0.424 3.576 -0.112 0.521 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.112 SERIES 251014 AND 251018 119 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.521 SERIES 251009 AND 251010 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.222 0.200 0.242 SDEV 0.182 0.166 0.191 SERR 0.057 0.036 0.036 EPS 0.668 0.666 0.718 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 1.621 0.533 0.706 3.735 0.381 -0.006 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.564 0.432 0.065 55 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.29 3.21 1.03 1.37 4.59 27.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.20 0.00 0.80 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 34. 95. 110. 144. 154. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 0.176 0.052 0.018 0.114 -0.059 -0.022 -0.180 -0.102 -0.162 PACF -0.006 0.176 0.055 -0.013 0.098 -0.063 -0.064 -0.178 -0.097 -0.125 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.174 0.176 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.035 -0.005 0.177 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00247092 2.77634430 2 251008 1 1.98512852 0.07433674 0.00000000 2.14490724 3 251009 1 0.86882907 0.06773538 0.00000000 1.09985554 4 251010 1 1.55098724 0.22687581 0.00000000 1.28399944 5 251011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00317656 1.72056544 6 251014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00588411 0.77547491 7 251016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00289734 1.60751092 8 251018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01783215 3.11211371 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.364 0.744 3.452 0.307 0.432 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.467 1.461 5.967 0.435 0.318 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.999 0.494 0.653 3.182 0.533 0.188 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.465 0.405 2.740 0.523 0.184 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.999 0.446 0.646 4.036 0.540 -0.088 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.004 0.448 0.589 3.789 0.512 0.099 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.461 0.508 3.070 0.577 -0.059 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.573 1.415 6.358 0.440 0.467 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.465 0.803 4.074 0.483 0.193 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.002 0.058 0.405 1.355 0.086 0.207 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.463 0.650 3.621 0.518 0.186 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.001 0.033 0.532 1.876 0.099 0.355 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.999 0.364 0.405 2.740 0.307 -0.088 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.447 0.548 3.126 0.438 0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.480 1.080 5.002 0.537 0.375 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.004 0.573 1.461 6.358 0.577 0.467 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 251008 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 251009 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 251010 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 251011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 251014 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 251016 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 251018 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.997 0.298 0.543 3.059 0.308 0.128 2 251008 1832 1975 144 0.993 0.423 1.375 6.015 0.435 0.224 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.991 0.459 0.508 2.871 0.534 0.065 4 251010 1881 1975 95 0.996 0.455 0.383 2.676 0.523 0.159 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.999 0.438 0.582 3.465 0.540 -0.177 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.996 0.416 0.424 4.219 0.512 0.009 7 251016 1842 1975 134 0.999 0.457 0.481 2.975 0.577 -0.085 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.995 0.552 1.303 5.782 0.439 0.434 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.996 0.437 0.700 3.883 0.484 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.003 0.070 0.400 1.332 0.086 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.996 0.446 0.526 3.262 0.517 0.096 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.004 0.038 0.490 2.078 0.100 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.991 0.298 0.383 2.676 0.308 -0.177 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.994 0.419 0.453 2.923 0.437 -0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.998 0.458 0.943 5.001 0.537 0.191 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.999 0.552 1.375 6.015 0.577 0.434 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.245 0.130 0.025 -0.230 4.445 -0.114 0.488 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.114 SERIES 251010 AND 251018 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.488 SERIES 251009 AND 251010 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.249 0.249 0.286 SDEV 0.168 0.155 0.162 SERR 0.053 0.034 0.031 EPS 0.701 0.726 0.762 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.989 0.276 0.186 2.709 0.363 -0.155 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.214 0.116 0.201 28 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 2.12 1.02 1.07 3.20 63.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.12 0.00 0.82 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.154 0.085 0.041 -0.033 0.117 -0.036 0.007 -0.143 -0.022 -0.100 PACF -0.154 0.063 0.065 -0.023 0.103 -0.002 -0.014 -0.159 -0.062 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.161 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.172 0.172 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 -0.158 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.136 0.072 0.098 -0.065 0.020 -0.046 0.001 -0.092 -0.065 -0.090 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.136 2 -0.129 0.055 3 -0.135 0.070 0.117 4 -0.130 0.073 0.112 -0.042 5 -0.130 0.074 0.112 -0.043 -0.009 6 -0.131 0.071 0.118 -0.040 -0.016 -0.050 7 -0.131 0.071 0.118 -0.040 -0.016 -0.050 0.000 8 -0.131 0.067 0.117 -0.043 -0.005 -0.043 -0.012 -0.092 9 -0.139 0.066 0.113 -0.044 -0.009 -0.033 -0.007 -0.103 -0.083 10 -0.147 0.055 0.112 -0.047 -0.009 -0.038 0.005 -0.096 -0.098 -0.107 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 956.18 955.31 956.85 956.71 958.44 960.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 962.04 964.04 964.73 965.67 965.91 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.136 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.85 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.88 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.136 0.018 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 251006 1 0.025 0.131 2 251008 1 0.051 0.225 3 251009 1 0.004 0.065 4 251010 1 0.026 0.160 5 251011 1 0.032 -0.178 6 251014 1 0.039 0.009 7 251016 1 0.015 -0.086 8 251018 1 0.214 0.440 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.051 0.096 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.067 0.192 MEDIAN 1 0.029 0.098 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.025 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.004 -0.178 LOWER HINGE 1 0.020 -0.038 UPPER HINGE 1 0.045 0.192 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.214 0.440 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.296 0.547 3.216 0.329 -0.011 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.412 1.146 4.759 0.464 -0.006 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.458 0.540 2.847 0.541 -0.001 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.449 0.384 2.618 0.555 -0.003 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.431 0.504 3.557 0.502 0.002 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.416 0.428 4.211 0.511 -0.002 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.455 0.485 2.957 0.557 -0.008 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.494 1.171 5.187 0.523 -0.063 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.426 0.651 3.669 0.498 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.059 0.318 0.948 0.075 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.440 0.522 3.387 0.517 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.043 0.390 1.583 0.064 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.296 0.384 2.618 0.329 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.414 0.457 2.902 0.483 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.457 0.846 4.485 0.548 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.494 1.171 5.187 0.557 0.002 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.270 0.113 0.021 -0.101 3.344 -0.004 0.474 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.004 SERIES 251010 AND 251018 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.474 SERIES 251009 AND 251010 95 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.253 0.277 0.310 SDEV 0.150 0.133 0.144 SERR 0.048 0.029 0.027 EPS 0.705 0.753 0.782 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.995 0.276 0.227 2.785 0.367 -0.214 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.137 0.171 23 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.95 1.48 1.04 1.33 2.81 738.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.13 0.00 0.83 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.213 0.092 0.027 -0.037 0.121 -0.035 0.010 -0.144 -0.030 -0.103 PACF -0.213 0.049 0.059 -0.026 0.107 0.014 -0.009 -0.162 -0.092 -0.129 95% C.L. 0.161 0.168 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.175 0.176 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.049 -0.217 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.008 0.055 0.044 -0.006 0.114 -0.009 -0.030 -0.158 -0.090 -0.131 PACF 0.008 0.054 0.044 -0.010 0.109 -0.012 -0.042 -0.169 -0.087 -0.132 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.168 0.169 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.995 0.271 0.217 2.750 0.348 -0.131 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.130 0.068 0.036 -0.027 0.118 -0.023 -0.005 -0.148 -0.052 -0.112 PACF -0.130 0.052 0.052 -0.020 0.109 0.006 -0.021 -0.165 -0.090 -0.132 95% C.L. 0.161 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 0.171 0.171 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 -0.134 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES