RUN: aust FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: aust008w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: aust008w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 251 1 Stubaital, Milderaun Alm WIDTH_RING PICE - 251 2 Austria Swiss stone pine, Arolla pine 1850 4708-1117 1822 1975 - 251 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 251011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.370 0.525 0.823 3.557 0.190 0.735 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.379 0.824 1.350 4.535 0.181 0.892 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.322 0.454 0.444 2.682 0.162 0.835 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.747 0.559 0.564 2.699 0.164 0.782 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.868 0.623 1.247 3.165 0.150 0.952 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.851 0.493 1.366 4.475 0.150 0.951 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.040 0.746 1.348 3.691 0.148 0.939 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.179 0.539 0.638 3.040 0.186 0.845 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 8 FROM 1822 TO 1975 154 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.219 0.595 0.972 3.480 0.166 0.866 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.300 0.129 0.396 0.726 0.017 0.081 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.250 0.549 1.035 3.361 0.163 0.869 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.420 0.176 0.748 1.213 0.034 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.851 0.454 0.444 2.682 0.148 0.735 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.954 0.509 0.601 2.870 0.150 0.809 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.374 0.684 1.349 4.083 0.184 0.945 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.747 0.824 1.366 4.535 0.190 0.952 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.481 0.231 0.044 0.130 2.935 0.001 0.937 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.001 SERIES 251006 AND 251009 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.937 SERIES 251011 AND 251016 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.388 0.312 0.383 SDEV 0.274 0.230 0.188 SERR 0.087 0.050 0.035 EPS 0.817 0.783 0.832 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 1.237 0.516 0.476 2.483 0.139 0.921 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.105 0.058 0.390 35 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.21 4.74 1.06 1.47 6.21 53.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.15 0.00 0.77 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 34. 95. 110. 144. 154. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.915 0.855 0.802 0.786 0.774 0.752 0.718 0.681 0.656 0.636 PACF 0.915 0.116 0.028 0.213 0.099 -0.020 -0.046 -0.021 0.021 0.006 95% C.L. 0.161 0.263 0.328 0.375 0.416 0.452 0.483 0.510 0.533 0.554 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.849 0.791 0.140 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00483874 1.72046137 2 251008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01607696 2.54432988 3 251009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00812950 1.74053192 4 251010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00956845 2.20612764 5 251011 1 2.19562244 0.02109910 0.00000000 0.16279823 6 251014 1 1.78140819 0.02368997 0.00000000 0.38107282 7 251016 1 2.85901904 0.02984287 0.00000000 0.34892645 8 251018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00974704 1.76373017 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.999 0.374 1.374 4.721 0.188 0.708 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.066 0.418 1.291 4.060 0.179 0.779 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.001 0.312 0.968 3.647 0.161 0.800 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.271 0.076 2.463 0.162 0.697 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.015 0.281 0.764 3.443 0.150 0.713 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.241 0.732 4.140 0.149 0.629 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.005 0.203 0.970 4.872 0.146 0.528 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.993 0.368 1.419 5.947 0.184 0.749 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.010 0.308 0.949 4.162 0.165 0.700 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.023 0.073 0.441 1.048 0.017 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.296 0.969 4.100 0.161 0.711 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.010 0.115 0.584 1.252 0.032 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.993 0.203 0.076 2.463 0.146 0.528 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.256 0.748 3.545 0.150 0.663 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.010 0.371 1.332 4.797 0.182 0.764 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.066 0.418 1.419 5.947 0.188 0.800 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 251006 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 251008 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 251009 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 251010 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 251011 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 251014 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 251016 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 251018 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 0.996 0.353 1.330 4.588 0.188 0.692 2 251008 1832 1975 144 0.993 0.247 0.744 3.350 0.179 0.574 3 251009 1874 1975 102 0.994 0.256 0.475 2.632 0.160 0.693 4 251010 1881 1975 95 0.990 0.206 0.155 3.081 0.162 0.494 5 251011 1837 1975 139 0.996 0.230 0.683 3.785 0.150 0.631 6 251014 1822 1975 154 0.997 0.224 0.845 5.562 0.149 0.554 7 251016 1842 1975 134 0.998 0.184 0.959 4.881 0.146 0.442 8 251018 1857 1975 119 0.995 0.339 1.446 6.634 0.184 0.711 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 0.995 0.255 0.830 4.314 0.165 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.002 0.061 0.424 1.357 0.017 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.995 0.238 0.794 4.187 0.161 0.603 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.003 0.083 0.565 2.006 0.032 0.169 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.990 0.184 0.155 2.632 0.146 0.442 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 0.994 0.215 0.579 3.215 0.150 0.524 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 0.997 0.297 1.144 5.221 0.181 0.693 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.998 0.353 1.446 6.634 0.188 0.711 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.222 0.114 0.022 -0.413 3.837 -0.090 0.458 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 251006 AND 251009 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.458 SERIES 251006 AND 251008 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.104 0.169 0.280 SDEV 0.248 0.173 0.156 SERR 0.078 0.038 0.029 EPS 0.452 0.619 0.757 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.980 0.148 0.168 2.604 0.115 0.569 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.307 0.200 -0.012 25 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 6.55 1.01 1.51 8.06 92.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.13 0.00 0.80 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.565 0.244 0.049 -0.080 -0.092 -0.077 -0.082 -0.228 -0.341 -0.393 PACF 0.565 -0.111 -0.061 -0.087 0.019 -0.020 -0.049 -0.256 -0.162 -0.166 95% C.L. 0.161 0.206 0.214 0.214 0.215 0.216 0.216 0.217 0.223 0.237 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.331 0.568 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.569 0.284 0.100 -0.016 -0.105 -0.072 -0.105 -0.235 -0.366 -0.460 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.569 2 0.602 -0.059 3 0.599 -0.025 -0.056 4 0.596 -0.026 -0.023 -0.055 5 0.592 -0.028 -0.026 -0.007 -0.081 6 0.596 -0.028 -0.024 -0.005 -0.117 0.060 7 0.602 -0.039 -0.024 -0.007 -0.120 0.119 -0.098 8 0.581 -0.013 -0.051 -0.009 -0.125 0.110 0.033 -0.218 9 0.534 -0.006 -0.027 -0.035 -0.127 0.099 0.030 -0.093 -0.214 10 0.485 -0.028 -0.020 -0.012 -0.156 0.091 0.023 -0.095 -0.090 -0.232 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 793.86 735.63 737.10 738.61 740.14 741.12 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 742.56 743.06 737.59 732.37 725.86 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.569 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 32.37 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 147.85 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.569 0.324 0.184 0.105 0.060 0.034 0.019 0.011 0.006 0.0036 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 251006 1 0.484 0.695 2 251008 1 0.334 0.577 3 251009 1 0.495 0.702 4 251010 1 0.245 0.494 5 251011 1 0.404 0.635 6 251014 1 0.377 0.605 7 251016 1 0.204 0.443 8 251018 1 0.512 0.711 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.382 0.608 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 0.099 MEDIAN 1 0.390 0.620 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.204 0.443 LOWER HINGE 1 0.289 0.536 UPPER HINGE 1 0.489 0.699 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.512 0.711 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 251006 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.254 1.545 7.776 0.257 -0.034 2 251008 1832 1975 144 1.000 0.201 0.579 4.004 0.226 0.023 3 251009 1874 1975 102 1.000 0.181 0.369 2.937 0.198 0.037 4 251010 1881 1975 95 1.000 0.179 0.168 3.329 0.200 -0.017 5 251011 1837 1975 139 1.000 0.177 0.465 3.773 0.194 -0.001 6 251014 1822 1975 154 1.000 0.178 0.790 5.581 0.192 -0.032 7 251016 1842 1975 134 1.000 0.165 0.658 4.949 0.181 -0.044 8 251018 1857 1975 119 1.000 0.238 1.168 6.546 0.237 0.084 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 129 1.000 0.197 0.718 4.862 0.211 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.032 0.448 1.683 0.026 0.044 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.180 0.619 4.476 0.199 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 33 0.000 0.042 0.562 2.512 0.039 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.165 0.168 2.937 0.181 -0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 110 1.000 0.177 0.417 3.551 0.193 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.220 0.979 6.063 0.232 0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 1.000 0.254 1.545 7.776 0.257 0.084 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 28 0.276 0.108 0.020 0.199 3.931 0.059 0.563 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 251009 AND 251011 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.563 SERIES 251006 AND 251008 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.53 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 10. 21. 28. RBAR 0.215 0.241 0.348 SDEV 0.171 0.140 0.117 SERR 0.054 0.031 0.022 EPS 0.659 0.717 0.810 NSS 7.1 8.0 8.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.991 0.123 0.195 3.124 0.139 -0.013 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.255 0.140 -0.009 39 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.23 4.90 1.00 1.24 6.14 9.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.11 0.00 0.81 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.073 -0.044 -0.028 -0.060 -0.040 0.076 -0.047 -0.042 -0.129 PACF -0.013 -0.073 -0.046 -0.035 -0.069 -0.049 0.062 -0.059 -0.043 -0.142 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.073 -0.045 -0.029 -0.061 -0.039 0.075 -0.047 -0.045 -0.132 PACF -0.001 -0.073 -0.045 -0.035 -0.069 -0.048 0.062 -0.061 -0.044 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1822 1975 154 0.991 0.144 0.124 2.606 0.114 0.520 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.516 0.201 0.047 -0.033 -0.086 -0.086 -0.060 -0.148 -0.222 -0.314 PACF 0.516 -0.089 -0.028 -0.041 -0.058 -0.011 -0.004 -0.160 -0.117 -0.197 95% C.L. 0.161 0.200 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.210 0.216 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.275 0.519 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES