RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ552E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ552E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 735 1 Fly Peak, Chiricahua Mts WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 735 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2790 3151-10918 1828 1983 735 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 735042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1887 1888 / 1893 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 2.151 0.728 0.234 2.635 0.287 0.487 2 735012 1887 1982 96 2.079 0.657 -0.137 2.971 0.305 0.448 3 735031 1828 1983 156 1.753 1.830 1.748 4.734 0.294 0.922 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.586 1.425 1.882 5.317 0.289 0.827 5 735041 1862 1983 122 1.410 0.539 -0.168 2.852 0.318 0.613 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.533 0.543 0.361 4.034 0.326 0.456 7 735051 1885 1983 99 1.837 1.159 1.556 4.794 0.306 0.796 8 735052 1880 1983 104 2.148 1.485 0.916 2.600 0.301 0.899 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.348 0.636 0.567 2.531 0.288 0.744 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 9 FROM 1828 TO 1983 156 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 113 1.760 1.000 0.773 3.608 0.302 0.688 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.313 0.484 0.793 1.111 0.014 0.191 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.753 0.728 0.567 2.971 0.301 0.744 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.546 0.789 1.322 2.099 0.016 0.340 MINIMUM VALUE 86 1.348 0.539 -0.168 2.531 0.287 0.448 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.533 0.636 0.234 2.635 0.289 0.487 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 2.079 1.425 1.556 4.734 0.306 0.827 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 2.151 1.830 1.882 5.317 0.326 0.922 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.452 0.257 0.043 -0.357 2.312 -0.006 0.949 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.006 SERIES 735041 AND 735052 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.949 SERIES 735051 AND 735052 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.678 0.344 0.650 0.643 SDEV 0.000 0.260 0.156 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.067 0.026 0.025 EPS 0.923 0.815 0.943 0.942 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 2.209 1.597 1.850 5.399 0.281 0.880 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.334 -0.106 0.847 26 130 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.72 1.64 1.02 1.16 2.79 40.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.86 0.29 0.00 0.67 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 23. 86. 99. 122. 156. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.874 0.857 0.811 0.795 0.770 0.738 0.686 0.668 0.609 0.598 PACF 0.874 0.391 0.063 0.112 0.054 -0.033 -0.132 0.042 -0.133 0.056 95% C.L. 0.160 0.255 0.320 0.369 0.411 0.446 0.476 0.501 0.523 0.541 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.835 0.358 0.449 0.143 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 735011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00685504 1.85250342 2 735012 1 1.30079377 0.01895578 0.00000000 1.48564661 3 735031 1 7.01791716 0.03254886 0.00000000 0.40173492 4 735032 1 5.61659288 0.05354136 0.00000000 0.71476507 5 735041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103036 1.34671450 6 735042 1 2.30617523 0.24015237 0.00000000 1.45861161 7 735051 1 4.29032946 0.04808921 0.00000000 0.96453524 8 735052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04168745 4.33618736 9 735061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01414565 2.15462065 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 1.001 0.330 0.244 3.032 0.284 0.413 2 735012 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.292 -0.130 3.441 0.302 0.320 3 735031 1828 1983 156 1.038 0.405 0.893 4.408 0.291 0.579 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.005 0.394 0.752 3.881 0.286 0.549 5 735041 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.380 -0.215 2.817 0.316 0.601 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.000 0.323 -0.046 2.923 0.322 0.400 7 735051 1885 1983 99 0.999 0.293 0.228 3.271 0.302 0.278 8 735052 1880 1983 104 17.971 167.010 10.867107.008 0.327 0.017 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.011 0.378 1.650 8.983 0.285 0.512 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 2.892 18.867 1.582 15.529 0.302 0.408 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 5.655 55.553 3.532 34.358 0.017 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.001 0.378 0.244 3.441 0.302 0.413 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.011 0.071 0.939 1.376 0.030 0.229 MINIMUM VALUE 86 0.999 0.292 -0.215 2.817 0.284 0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.323 -0.046 3.032 0.286 0.320 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.011 0.394 0.893 4.408 0.316 0.549 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 17.971 167.010 10.867107.008 0.327 0.601 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 735011 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 735012 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 735031 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 735032 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 735041 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 735042 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 735051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 735052 5 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000000 17.97104836 9 735061 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 0.997 0.278 -0.232 2.716 0.284 0.283 2 735012 1887 1982 96 0.998 0.285 -0.054 3.563 0.302 0.276 3 735031 1828 1983 156 0.996 0.329 0.348 3.272 0.290 0.461 4 735032 1867 1983 117 0.998 0.387 0.829 4.309 0.286 0.529 5 735041 1862 1983 122 0.991 0.355 -0.296 2.939 0.315 0.550 6 735042 1852 1982 131 0.999 0.313 -0.132 2.968 0.322 0.360 7 735051 1885 1983 99 0.999 0.278 0.009 3.154 0.302 0.215 8 735052 1880 1983 104 1.000 9.293 10.867107.008 0.327 0.017 9 735061 1871 1983 113 0.994 0.303 0.301 3.408 0.285 0.364 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 0.997 1.314 1.293 14.815 0.301 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.003 2.993 3.607 34.576 0.017 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.998 0.313 0.009 3.272 0.302 0.360 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.002 0.070 0.480 0.595 0.029 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 86 0.991 0.278 -0.296 2.716 0.284 0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.996 0.285 -0.132 2.968 0.286 0.276 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.999 0.355 0.348 3.563 0.315 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 9.293 10.867107.008 0.327 0.550 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.491 0.236 0.039 -1.099 3.017 -0.015 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.015 SERIES 735011 AND 735052 86 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 735011 AND 735012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.491 0.466 0.624 0.594 SDEV 0.000 0.207 0.129 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.053 0.021 0.036 EPS 0.846 0.880 0.937 0.929 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.987 0.257 -0.326 3.522 0.251 0.439 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.037 0.146 89 67 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.36 4.11 1.01 1.80 5.91 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.436 0.355 0.205 0.103 0.020 -0.007 -0.043 -0.118 -0.222 -0.217 PACF 0.436 0.203 -0.009 -0.049 -0.054 -0.008 -0.026 -0.103 -0.170 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.160 0.188 0.205 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.219 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.229 0.350 0.207 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.061 0.023 0.019 0.019 -0.004 -0.014 -0.012 -0.018 -0.054 -0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.061 2 0.060 0.019 3 0.059 0.018 0.017 4 0.059 0.018 0.016 0.017 5 0.059 0.018 0.016 0.017 -0.007 6 0.059 0.018 0.016 0.017 -0.006 -0.015 7 0.059 0.018 0.017 0.018 -0.006 -0.014 -0.011 8 0.059 0.018 0.016 0.018 -0.006 -0.014 -0.010 -0.016 9 0.058 0.018 0.016 0.018 -0.005 -0.013 -0.009 -0.013 -0.051 10 0.057 0.018 0.016 0.017 -0.005 -0.013 -0.009 -0.013 -0.051 -0.011 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1433.92 1435.34 1437.28 1439.24 1441.19 1443.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1445.15 1447.14 1449.09 1450.68 1452.66 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 735011 0 0.081 2 735012 0 0.077 3 735031 0 0.217 4 735032 0 0.283 5 735041 0 0.304 6 735042 0 0.130 7 735051 0 0.046 8 735052 0 0.001 9 735061 0 0.140 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.142 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 MEDIAN 0 0.130 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.001 LOWER HINGE 0 0.077 UPPER HINGE 0 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.304 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.278 -0.232 2.716 0.283 0.283 2 735012 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.285 -0.054 3.563 0.302 0.276 3 735031 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.329 0.348 3.272 0.289 0.461 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.387 0.829 4.309 0.285 0.529 5 735041 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.355 -0.296 2.939 0.311 0.550 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.000 0.313 -0.132 2.968 0.321 0.360 7 735051 1885 1983 99 1.000 0.278 0.009 3.154 0.301 0.215 8 735052 1880 1983 104 1.000 9.293 10.867107.008 0.327 0.017 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.303 0.301 3.408 0.283 0.364 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 1.314 1.293 14.815 0.300 0.339 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 2.993 3.607 34.576 0.017 0.167 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.313 0.009 3.272 0.301 0.360 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.070 0.480 0.595 0.026 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.278 -0.296 2.716 0.283 0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.285 -0.132 2.968 0.285 0.276 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.355 0.348 3.563 0.311 0.461 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 9.293 10.867107.008 0.327 0.550 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.491 0.236 0.039 -1.099 3.017 -0.015 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.015 SERIES 735011 AND 735052 86 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 735011 AND 735012 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.491 0.466 0.624 0.594 SDEV 0.000 0.207 0.129 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.053 0.021 0.036 EPS 0.846 0.880 0.937 0.929 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.991 0.257 -0.326 3.520 0.250 0.438 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.070 0.037 0.146 90 66 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.25 4.33 1.00 1.57 5.90 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.436 0.354 0.204 0.102 0.020 -0.008 -0.044 -0.119 -0.222 -0.218 PACF 0.436 0.203 -0.010 -0.049 -0.053 -0.009 -0.026 -0.102 -0.170 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.160 0.188 0.204 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.219 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.229 0.350 0.207 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.991 0.257 -0.326 3.520 0.250 0.438 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.436 0.354 0.204 0.102 0.020 -0.008 -0.044 -0.119 -0.222 -0.218 PACF 0.436 0.203 -0.010 -0.049 -0.053 -0.009 -0.026 -0.102 -0.170 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.160 0.188 0.204 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.219 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.229 0.350 0.207 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.64 MINUTES