RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ552N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ552N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 735 1 Fly Peak, Chiricahua Mts DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 735 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2790 3151-10918 1828 1983 735 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 735042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1887 1888 / 1893 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 735052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 0.270 0.039 3.289 17.316 0.114 0.100 2 735012 1887 1982 96 0.254 0.028 0.573 4.133 0.122 -0.058 3 735031 1828 1983 156 0.262 0.030 0.476 3.503 0.091 0.358 4 735032 1867 1983 117 0.258 0.025 0.535 3.405 0.091 0.161 5 735041 1862 1983 122 0.252 0.032 0.899 4.808 0.102 0.252 6 735042 1852 1982 131 0.225 0.025 1.940 7.578 0.098 -0.005 7 735051 1885 1983 99 0.257 0.029 1.297 5.881 0.110 0.184 8 735052 1880 1983 104 0.251 0.035 0.766 4.867 0.118 0.323 9 735061 1871 1983 113 0.301 0.045 1.996 8.039 0.084 0.618 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 9 FROM 1828 TO 1983 156 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 112 0.259 0.032 1.308 6.614 0.103 0.215 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.020 0.007 0.941 4.337 0.013 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 0.257 0.030 0.899 4.867 0.102 0.184 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.010 0.006 1.368 3.444 0.023 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 86 0.225 0.025 0.476 3.405 0.084 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.252 0.028 0.573 4.133 0.091 0.100 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 0.262 0.035 1.940 7.578 0.114 0.323 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 0.301 0.045 3.289 17.316 0.122 0.618 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.445 0.175 0.029 -0.825 4.617 -0.101 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.101 SERIES 735032 AND 735061 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 735051 AND 735052 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.531 0.422 0.547 0.568 SDEV 0.000 0.282 0.165 0.150 SERR 0.000 0.073 0.027 0.025 EPS 0.866 0.860 0.916 0.922 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.253 0.023 0.941 5.027 0.081 0.205 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.485 0.375 -0.071 24 132 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.58 1.02 1.07 1.65 15.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.26 0.00 0.68 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 113. 23. 86. 99. 122. 156. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.204 0.304 0.302 0.196 0.178 0.197 0.257 0.172 0.285 0.153 PACF 0.204 0.274 0.227 0.060 0.020 0.064 0.161 0.042 0.142 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.160 0.167 0.180 0.193 0.198 0.202 0.207 0.215 0.218 0.228 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.166 0.084 0.243 0.232 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 735011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000745 0.27067304 2 735012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001757 0.25341886 3 735031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000390 0.26142430 4 735032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005500 0.25496021 5 735041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009134 0.25725648 6 735042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001314 0.22659726 7 735051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030291 0.24192537 8 735052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046043 0.22608592 9 735061 1 0.22594109 0.12179133 0.00000000 0.28553581 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.145 3.289 17.317 0.113 0.098 2 735012 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.111 0.573 4.141 0.120 -0.058 3 735031 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.115 0.477 3.499 0.090 0.357 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.095 0.583 3.433 0.091 0.159 5 735041 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.126 0.930 5.140 0.101 0.240 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.000 0.108 1.885 7.439 0.097 -0.014 7 735051 1885 1983 99 1.000 0.106 1.089 4.968 0.109 0.096 8 735052 1880 1983 104 1.000 0.127 1.236 5.237 0.115 0.201 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.086 0.715 4.160 0.083 0.138 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 0.113 1.197 6.148 0.102 0.135 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.018 0.898 4.359 0.013 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.111 0.930 4.968 0.101 0.138 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.020 0.652 1.096 0.022 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.086 0.477 3.433 0.083 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.106 0.583 4.141 0.091 0.096 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.126 1.236 5.237 0.113 0.201 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.145 3.289 17.317 0.120 0.357 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 735011 -67 57 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 735012 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 735031 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 735032 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 735041 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 735042 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 735051 -67 66 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 735052 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 735061 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 0.999 0.125 3.079 15.357 0.113 -0.116 2 735012 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.105 0.855 5.455 0.120 -0.207 3 735031 1828 1983 156 0.999 0.092 0.971 4.875 0.091 0.029 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.085 0.751 3.403 0.091 -0.035 5 735041 1862 1983 122 0.999 0.119 1.000 5.716 0.101 0.149 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.000 0.107 1.861 7.620 0.097 -0.031 7 735051 1885 1983 99 1.000 0.101 1.291 6.112 0.109 -0.004 8 735052 1880 1983 104 0.999 0.111 0.895 4.563 0.115 0.017 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.078 0.879 4.604 0.083 -0.025 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 0.103 1.287 6.412 0.102 -0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.015 0.751 3.554 0.013 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.105 0.971 5.455 0.101 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.019 0.412 1.508 0.023 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 86 0.999 0.078 0.751 3.403 0.083 -0.207 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 0.999 0.092 0.879 4.604 0.091 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.111 1.291 6.112 0.113 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.125 3.079 15.357 0.120 0.149 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.532 0.106 0.018 0.005 2.613 0.327 0.752 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.327 SERIES 735032 AND 735052 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.752 SERIES 735051 AND 735052 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.566 0.511 0.551 0.574 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.140 0.161 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.023 0.027 EPS 0.881 0.898 0.917 0.924 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.995 0.075 1.649 7.493 0.077 -0.105 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.325 0.154 -0.099 22 134 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.27 2.46 1.01 1.29 3.75 34.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.18 0.00 0.76 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.105 0.076 0.088 -0.049 -0.108 -0.022 0.068 -0.043 0.103 -0.057 PACF -0.105 0.066 0.104 -0.035 -0.135 -0.052 0.095 0.003 0.082 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.160 0.162 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.169 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.177 0.073 0.085 -0.099 -0.163 -0.082 0.019 -0.041 0.104 -0.040 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.177 2 -0.169 0.043 3 -0.174 0.061 0.109 4 -0.166 0.066 0.096 -0.073 5 -0.182 0.086 0.110 -0.108 -0.215 6 -0.216 0.069 0.127 -0.095 -0.244 -0.158 7 -0.212 0.075 0.130 -0.098 -0.246 -0.152 0.026 8 -0.212 0.078 0.135 -0.096 -0.248 -0.154 0.030 0.020 9 -0.214 0.076 0.148 -0.074 -0.239 -0.166 0.023 0.039 0.090 10 -0.207 0.079 0.150 -0.087 -0.258 -0.171 0.034 0.044 0.073 -0.077 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 619.00 616.04 617.75 617.90 619.08 613.68 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 611.76 613.66 615.60 616.35 617.41 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.177 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.13 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.177 0.031 -0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 735011 1 0.021 -0.116 2 735012 1 0.043 -0.207 3 735031 1 0.045 0.029 4 735032 1 0.011 -0.035 5 735041 1 0.063 0.149 6 735042 1 0.021 -0.031 7 735051 1 0.004 -0.004 8 735052 1 0.030 0.017 9 735061 1 0.011 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.028 -0.025 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.019 0.098 MEDIAN 1 0.021 -0.025 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.032 0.053 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.004 -0.207 LOWER HINGE 1 0.011 -0.035 UPPER HINGE 1 0.043 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.063 0.149 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 735011 1898 1983 86 1.000 0.124 2.957 14.895 0.109 -0.010 2 735012 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.103 0.558 4.514 0.109 0.002 3 735031 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.092 0.969 4.879 0.092 -0.006 4 735032 1867 1983 117 1.000 0.085 0.743 3.388 0.089 0.004 5 735041 1862 1983 122 1.000 0.117 1.060 6.047 0.111 -0.030 6 735042 1852 1982 131 1.000 0.107 1.849 7.526 0.096 0.004 7 735051 1885 1983 99 1.000 0.101 1.290 6.106 0.109 0.000 8 735052 1880 1983 104 1.000 0.111 0.893 4.584 0.117 -0.003 9 735061 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.078 0.861 4.522 0.082 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 1.000 0.102 1.242 6.273 0.102 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.015 0.742 3.451 0.012 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 113 1.000 0.103 0.969 4.879 0.109 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.019 0.429 1.584 0.017 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 86 1.000 0.078 0.558 3.388 0.082 -0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 99 1.000 0.092 0.861 4.522 0.092 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 122 1.000 0.111 1.290 6.106 0.109 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.124 2.957 14.895 0.117 0.004 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 36 0.525 0.107 0.018 0.081 2.767 0.320 0.754 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.320 SERIES 735032 AND 735052 104 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.754 SERIES 735051 AND 735052 99 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.90 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 15. 36. 36. RBAR 0.570 0.515 0.545 0.566 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.142 0.162 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.024 0.027 EPS 0.883 0.899 0.915 0.921 NSS 5.7 8.4 9.0 9.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.995 0.074 1.624 7.409 0.077 -0.092 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.319 0.150 -0.096 23 133 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.06 3.29 1.00 1.08 4.37 22.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.16 0.00 0.78 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.092 0.068 0.097 -0.047 -0.118 -0.022 0.056 -0.057 0.109 -0.052 PACF -0.092 0.060 0.110 -0.034 -0.143 -0.053 0.082 -0.012 0.090 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.164 0.164 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 0.070 0.101 -0.050 -0.126 -0.029 0.049 -0.043 0.101 -0.040 PACF 0.005 0.070 0.101 -0.056 -0.143 -0.033 0.084 -0.012 0.085 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.168 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.995 0.075 1.627 7.505 0.081 -0.181 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.180 0.081 0.088 -0.043 -0.108 -0.018 0.062 -0.071 0.118 -0.065 PACF -0.180 0.050 0.115 -0.014 -0.140 -0.071 0.081 -0.013 0.093 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.160 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.173 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.035 -0.180 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES