RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ554E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ554E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 726 1 Baldy Peak WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 726 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 2940 3358-10933 1556 19 726 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 726012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1714 1717 / 1734 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 726032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 726041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 726051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1762 1762 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 726061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 726071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1706 1708 / 1756 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 726092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1746 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 726131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1712 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.396 0.247 1.251 4.848 0.399 0.699 2 726012 1592 1983 392 0.416 0.275 1.408 5.209 0.422 0.710 3 726031 1771 1983 213 0.513 0.331 1.884 7.335 0.263 0.791 4 726032 1768 1983 216 0.413 0.271 1.854 6.655 0.298 0.834 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.673 0.505 0.996 3.721 0.356 0.841 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.703 0.676 2.032 7.077 0.350 0.884 7 726051 1724 1983 260 0.573 0.281 1.082 4.611 0.337 0.655 8 726052 1717 1983 267 0.608 0.277 1.263 4.614 0.273 0.602 9 726061 1732 1983 252 0.591 0.411 1.400 4.824 0.294 0.883 10 726062 1719 1983 265 0.603 0.354 0.588 2.398 0.248 0.883 11 726071 1637 1983 347 0.542 0.417 0.766 2.506 0.235 0.878 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.474 0.377 0.966 2.636 0.247 0.903 13 726081 1665 1983 319 0.583 0.450 1.505 4.769 0.213 0.940 14 726082 1707 1983 277 0.439 0.324 1.038 2.990 0.232 0.919 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.504 0.360 1.660 5.959 0.299 0.856 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.479 0.365 1.369 4.271 0.305 0.841 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.687 0.572 1.082 3.201 0.283 0.912 18 726102 1733 1983 251 0.575 0.391 1.071 3.459 0.304 0.876 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.580 0.450 1.738 5.963 0.248 0.934 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.667 0.502 1.313 4.402 0.283 0.913 21 726121 1620 1983 364 0.539 0.380 0.943 3.444 0.410 0.749 22 726122 1627 1983 357 0.506 0.386 1.372 4.910 0.342 0.769 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.391 0.186 0.712 3.649 0.333 0.577 24 726132 1630 1983 354 0.469 0.185 0.926 4.234 0.300 0.521 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1556 TO 1983 428 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 319 0.539 0.374 1.259 4.487 0.303 0.807 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.093 0.116 0.383 1.385 0.057 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 325 0.541 0.371 1.257 4.506 0.299 0.848 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.125 0.154 0.476 1.608 0.084 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.391 0.185 0.588 2.398 0.213 0.521 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.472 0.279 0.981 3.452 0.256 0.729 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 0.597 0.433 1.457 5.059 0.340 0.894 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.703 0.676 2.032 7.335 0.422 0.940 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.658 0.191 0.012 -0.962 3.532 0.014 0.928 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 726012 AND 726081 319 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.928 SERIES 726072 AND 726092 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.676 0.405 0.468 0.357 0.371 0.419 0.486 0.651 0.647 0.742 SDEV 0.113 0.241 0.200 0.314 0.299 0.204 0.303 0.249 0.182 0.100 SERR 0.025 0.032 0.025 0.033 0.027 0.013 0.020 0.015 0.011 0.006 EPS 0.956 0.896 0.925 0.901 0.922 0.942 0.957 0.978 0.978 0.986 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.631 0.511 0.435 SDEV 0.147 0.178 0.194 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.976 0.962 0.948 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.679 0.575 2.505 10.372 0.251 0.884 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.119 0.034 0.203 150 278 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.75 1.00 1.11 1.86 5.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 333. 121. 213. 262. 384. 397. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.882 0.836 0.785 0.739 0.703 0.678 0.665 0.668 0.647 0.628 PACF 0.882 0.259 0.045 0.014 0.044 0.067 0.094 0.127 -0.030 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.097 0.155 0.192 0.220 0.242 0.261 0.277 0.291 0.305 0.318 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.832 0.593 0.341 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 1 0.57116354 0.00690936 0.00000000 0.19666445 2 726012 1 0.65508461 0.01531052 0.00000000 0.30563286 3 726031 1 1.01575792 0.01376279 0.00000000 0.18734424 4 726032 1 0.80255115 0.01060201 0.00000000 0.09835466 5 726041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00291643 1.24060512 6 726042 1 2.63815331 0.02095248 0.00000000 0.38406229 7 726051 1 0.61708975 0.01334779 0.00000000 0.40396202 8 726052 1 0.73961079 0.01607334 0.00000000 0.43963987 9 726061 1 1.10508406 0.01037404 0.00000000 0.19956338 10 726062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00367932 1.09195280 11 726071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00321527 1.12522519 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313642 1.08474183 14 726082 1 0.98054028 0.00812260 0.00000000 0.05124196 15 726091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00102969 0.70906383 16 726092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083038 0.64978731 17 726101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00399453 1.26467526 18 726102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00427119 1.11295080 19 726111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00069033 0.71230912 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00268301 1.08404696 21 726121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265539 1.02370179 22 726122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00278377 1.00445724 23 726131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067050 0.51362532 24 726132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006640 0.45728141 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.999 0.509 1.115 5.049 0.398 0.539 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.604 1.969 8.354 0.424 0.629 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.003 0.339 1.105 4.812 0.262 0.480 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.006 0.375 0.998 4.122 0.297 0.502 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.955 0.536 1.082 4.666 0.355 0.693 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.006 0.641 1.833 9.743 0.349 0.773 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.389 0.234 2.775 0.338 0.484 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.312 0.277 3.579 0.272 0.403 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.011 0.514 1.357 7.785 0.296 0.736 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.071 0.623 3.897 26.660 0.248 0.748 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.286 1.795 7.347 69.345 0.233 0.751 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.990 0.300 0.600 4.436 0.246 0.494 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.114 0.870 3.382 18.193 0.213 0.886 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.022 0.564 1.527 5.886 0.231 0.846 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.993 0.621 1.481 5.904 0.298 0.837 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.990 0.714 1.451 4.788 0.305 0.837 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.964 0.519 0.784 3.609 0.283 0.802 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.191 0.992 4.151 24.623 0.305 0.728 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.993 0.743 1.724 5.920 0.247 0.926 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.971 0.557 0.925 3.603 0.282 0.833 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.034 0.535 1.351 5.722 0.409 0.428 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.282 1.478 6.754 65.746 0.342 0.650 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.997 0.437 0.636 3.656 0.332 0.498 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.394 0.938 4.267 0.299 0.521 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.037 0.640 1.955 12.635 0.303 0.668 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.091 0.353 1.866 18.080 0.057 0.162 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.546 1.354 5.386 0.298 0.711 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.035 0.262 0.969 4.854 0.085 0.318 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.955 0.300 0.234 2.775 0.213 0.403 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.993 0.416 0.932 4.195 0.255 0.500 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.028 0.678 1.901 9.049 0.340 0.818 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.286 1.795 7.347 69.345 0.424 0.926 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 726012 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 726031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 726032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 726041 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 726042 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 726051 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 726052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 726061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 726062 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 726071 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 726082 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 726091 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 726092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 726101 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 726102 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 726111 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 726121 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 726122 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 726131 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 726132 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.996 0.488 0.919 4.153 0.398 0.495 2 726012 1592 1983 392 0.988 0.518 1.291 5.412 0.424 0.504 3 726031 1771 1983 213 0.998 0.305 0.808 4.121 0.262 0.398 4 726032 1768 1983 216 0.997 0.339 0.677 3.421 0.297 0.419 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.984 0.478 1.047 4.671 0.355 0.524 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.985 0.461 1.021 5.746 0.349 0.591 7 726051 1724 1983 260 0.994 0.350 0.152 2.920 0.338 0.354 8 726052 1717 1983 267 0.997 0.295 0.278 3.811 0.272 0.339 9 726061 1732 1983 252 0.982 0.374 0.390 3.033 0.296 0.543 10 726062 1719 1983 265 0.988 0.343 0.620 4.439 0.248 0.576 11 726071 1637 1983 347 0.977 0.452 1.998 13.178 0.233 0.689 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.997 0.288 0.611 4.308 0.246 0.430 13 726081 1665 1983 319 0.979 0.398 0.704 3.275 0.213 0.786 14 726082 1707 1983 277 0.982 0.353 0.586 4.065 0.231 0.685 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.965 0.468 1.024 4.895 0.298 0.701 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.968 0.489 0.706 3.506 0.305 0.675 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.971 0.371 0.064 3.118 0.282 0.600 18 726102 1733 1983 251 0.993 0.360 0.902 4.178 0.304 0.429 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.999 0.469 0.887 3.630 0.247 0.778 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.971 0.377 0.554 3.778 0.282 0.570 21 726121 1620 1983 364 0.987 0.431 0.640 3.252 0.409 0.318 22 726122 1627 1983 357 0.986 0.468 1.978 10.696 0.342 0.496 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.992 0.394 0.380 3.091 0.332 0.427 24 726132 1630 1983 354 0.995 0.358 0.632 3.355 0.299 0.461 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 0.986 0.401 0.786 4.586 0.303 0.533 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.010 0.068 0.471 2.409 0.057 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 0.987 0.385 0.690 3.938 0.298 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.015 0.117 0.400 1.240 0.085 0.209 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.965 0.288 0.064 2.920 0.213 0.318 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.981 0.352 0.570 3.315 0.255 0.428 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 0.995 0.468 0.970 4.555 0.340 0.637 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.999 0.518 1.998 13.178 0.424 0.786 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.468 0.122 0.007 -0.316 4.434 0.031 0.822 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.031 SERIES 726012 AND 726081 319 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.822 SERIES 726041 AND 726042 356 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.591 0.414 0.499 0.378 0.389 0.419 0.488 0.542 0.594 0.678 SDEV 0.157 0.221 0.181 0.271 0.271 0.205 0.248 0.259 0.162 0.119 SERR 0.034 0.030 0.022 0.028 0.025 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.010 0.007 EPS 0.937 0.899 0.933 0.909 0.927 0.942 0.958 0.966 0.972 0.981 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.642 0.524 0.436 SDEV 0.129 0.163 0.203 SERR 0.008 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.977 0.964 0.948 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.980 0.302 0.464 3.308 0.252 0.484 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.417 0.188 0.090 132 296 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.64 1.00 1.09 1.74 48.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.483 0.433 0.303 0.327 0.200 0.215 0.174 0.188 0.120 0.101 PACF 0.483 0.261 0.032 0.136 -0.053 0.049 0.029 0.041 -0.028 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.097 0.117 0.131 0.138 0.145 0.147 0.150 0.152 0.154 0.155 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.290 0.357 0.264 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.430 0.414 0.274 0.294 0.163 0.211 0.139 0.165 0.065 0.053 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.430 2 0.309 0.281 3 0.300 0.270 0.034 4 0.296 0.240 0.000 0.114 5 0.302 0.240 0.012 0.129 -0.052 6 0.306 0.230 0.011 0.110 -0.076 0.077 7 0.306 0.230 0.011 0.110 -0.076 0.077 0.002 8 0.306 0.227 0.014 0.106 -0.077 0.068 -0.010 0.038 9 0.308 0.226 0.018 0.101 -0.070 0.069 0.005 0.058 -0.063 10 0.305 0.229 0.019 0.105 -0.073 0.074 0.006 0.068 -0.048 -0.048 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4060.24 3974.69 3941.55 3943.05 3939.50 3940.33 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3939.76 3941.76 3943.13 3943.44 3944.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.309 0.281 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 24.92 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 133.20 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.309 0.376 0.203 0.169 0.109 0.081 0.056 0.040 0.028 0.0199 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 726011 2 0.294 0.381 0.230 2 726012 2 0.364 0.325 0.355 3 726031 2 0.168 0.381 0.055 4 726032 2 0.204 0.343 0.183 5 726041 2 0.372 0.343 0.351 6 726042 2 0.405 0.419 0.291 7 726051 2 0.168 0.281 0.214 8 726052 2 0.154 0.273 0.197 9 726061 2 0.344 0.420 0.238 10 726062 2 0.435 0.396 0.341 11 726071 2 0.588 0.649 0.146 12 726072 2 0.244 0.316 0.267 13 726081 2 0.661 0.588 0.262 14 726082 2 0.519 0.500 0.274 15 726091 2 0.554 0.491 0.310 16 726092 2 0.513 0.490 0.282 17 726101 2 0.426 0.425 0.297 18 726102 2 0.262 0.329 0.260 19 726111 2 0.655 0.549 0.302 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 726112 2 0.369 0.445 0.227 21 726121 2 0.172 0.231 0.278 22 726122 2 0.400 0.325 0.391 23 726131 2 0.249 0.315 0.266 24 726132 2 0.339 0.280 0.392 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.369 0.396 0.267 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.154 0.106 0.076 MEDIAN 2 0.367 0.381 0.271 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.228 0.147 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.154 0.231 0.055 LOWER HINGE 2 0.246 0.320 0.229 UPPER HINGE 2 0.474 0.468 0.306 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.661 0.649 0.392 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.001 0.410 0.604 3.683 0.464 -0.024 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.418 0.787 4.619 0.474 -0.056 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.278 0.617 3.719 0.312 0.007 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.302 0.603 3.403 0.335 -0.003 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.380 0.886 4.578 0.398 -0.028 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.356 0.740 5.306 0.401 -0.009 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.319 0.147 3.066 0.370 -0.004 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.272 0.177 3.696 0.302 -0.013 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.303 0.283 3.689 0.328 0.012 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.258 0.010 3.254 0.288 0.027 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.289 1.149 9.327 0.293 0.044 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.251 0.503 4.800 0.276 0.003 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.232 0.245 3.461 0.249 0.014 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.246 0.150 3.976 0.274 -0.026 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.310 0.519 3.843 0.336 -0.015 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.342 0.751 4.991 0.361 -0.026 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.282 0.381 3.439 0.304 -0.022 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.311 0.567 3.994 0.347 -0.019 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.274 0.556 3.955 0.289 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.300 0.570 4.968 0.313 -0.009 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.392 0.515 3.254 0.441 -0.006 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.364 1.352 8.517 0.387 -0.009 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.001 0.341 0.487 4.598 0.384 -0.029 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.292 0.357 3.859 0.334 -0.037 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.313 0.540 4.416 0.344 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.052 0.313 1.523 0.060 0.021 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.302 0.538 3.907 0.334 -0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.073 0.359 1.138 0.088 0.026 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.232 0.010 3.066 0.249 -0.056 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.276 0.320 3.572 0.298 -0.026 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.349 0.679 4.709 0.385 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.001 0.418 1.352 9.327 0.474 0.044 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.555 0.080 0.005 0.224 3.802 0.336 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.336 SERIES 726042 AND 726081 281 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 726051 AND 726052 260 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.635 0.540 0.516 0.453 0.421 0.544 0.616 0.608 0.660 0.679 SDEV 0.116 0.139 0.142 0.209 0.239 0.126 0.115 0.113 0.096 0.095 SERR 0.025 0.019 0.017 0.022 0.022 0.008 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.006 EPS 0.947 0.937 0.937 0.931 0.936 0.964 0.974 0.974 0.979 0.981 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.648 0.584 0.531 SDEV 0.108 0.123 0.149 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.978 0.971 0.964 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.995 0.244 0.226 3.187 0.281 -0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.328 0.117 0.071 129 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.60 1.00 1.09 1.69 10.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.055 -0.089 -0.036 0.089 -0.058 0.027 -0.002 0.060 0.003 -0.056 PACF -0.055 -0.093 -0.047 0.076 -0.056 0.034 -0.002 0.056 0.021 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.014 -0.060 -0.093 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.004 -0.048 0.078 -0.056 0.037 -0.001 0.059 0.002 -0.047 PACF -0.005 0.004 -0.048 0.078 -0.056 0.035 0.006 0.048 0.014 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.005 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.992 0.279 0.486 3.438 0.241 0.414 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.413 0.415 0.214 0.239 0.102 0.141 0.084 0.105 0.055 0.027 PACF 0.413 0.294 -0.038 0.084 -0.052 0.044 0.018 0.021 -0.009 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.097 0.112 0.126 0.129 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.247 0.292 0.298 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 2.30 MINUTES