RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ554I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ554I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 726 1 Baldy Peak DENSITY_EARLY PSME - 726 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 2940 3358-10933 1556 19 726 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 726012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1714 1717 / 1734 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 726032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 726041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 726051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1762 1762 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 726061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 726071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1706 1708 / 1756 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 726092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1746 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 726131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1712 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 3.422 0.361 1.135 5.844 0.086 0.368 2 726012 1592 1983 392 3.378 0.358 1.012 5.230 0.096 0.250 3 726031 1771 1983 213 3.572 0.186 0.340 3.187 0.045 0.368 4 726032 1768 1983 216 3.595 0.211 0.297 2.694 0.047 0.499 5 726041 1590 1983 394 3.443 0.315 0.061 2.535 0.061 0.611 6 726042 1556 1945 390 3.303 0.269 1.049 6.495 0.061 0.474 7 726051 1724 1983 260 3.606 0.361 2.347 17.361 0.075 0.315 8 726052 1717 1983 267 3.502 0.302 0.801 5.749 0.057 0.545 9 726061 1732 1983 252 3.481 0.367 0.406 3.430 0.064 0.649 10 726062 1719 1983 265 3.496 0.314 0.644 3.372 0.062 0.557 11 726071 1637 1983 347 3.804 0.276 0.435 3.247 0.048 0.569 12 726072 1733 1983 251 3.781 0.292 0.843 4.786 0.052 0.537 13 726081 1665 1983 319 3.649 0.306 0.263 2.670 0.052 0.682 14 726082 1707 1983 277 3.553 0.278 0.194 2.637 0.049 0.657 15 726091 1587 1983 397 3.407 0.335 0.442 4.773 0.063 0.591 16 726092 1592 1983 392 3.674 0.316 0.806 5.958 0.065 0.465 17 726101 1696 1983 288 3.719 0.271 1.148 8.746 0.060 0.371 18 726102 1733 1983 251 3.540 0.322 1.401 8.732 0.059 0.540 19 726111 1601 1983 383 3.265 0.238 0.537 3.692 0.055 0.494 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 3.427 0.265 0.385 3.352 0.058 0.529 21 726121 1620 1983 364 3.935 0.348 0.164 2.664 0.089 0.219 22 726122 1627 1983 357 4.014 0.334 0.627 6.484 0.078 0.243 23 726131 1620 1983 364 4.169 0.366 1.048 5.326 0.071 0.368 24 726132 1630 1983 354 3.916 0.331 0.849 4.284 0.069 0.395 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1556 TO 1983 428 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 319 3.610 0.305 0.718 5.135 0.063 0.471 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.230 0.049 0.501 3.172 0.014 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 325 3.562 0.315 0.636 4.528 0.061 0.496 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.315 0.068 0.667 2.684 0.016 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 213 3.265 0.186 0.061 2.535 0.045 0.219 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 3.435 0.274 0.362 3.217 0.054 0.368 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 3.750 0.341 1.030 5.901 0.070 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 4.169 0.367 2.347 17.361 0.096 0.682 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.303 0.189 0.011 -0.396 3.148 -0.280 0.752 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.280 SERIES 726072 AND 726081 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.752 SERIES 726051 AND 726052 260 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.413 0.391 0.353 0.389 0.259 0.181 0.228 0.289 0.390 0.469 SDEV 0.185 0.194 0.177 0.166 0.207 0.224 0.229 0.260 0.184 0.172 SERR 0.040 0.026 0.022 0.017 0.019 0.015 0.015 0.016 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.879 0.890 0.884 0.912 0.875 0.833 0.875 0.907 0.939 0.955 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.516 0.433 0.338 SDEV 0.194 0.234 0.220 SERR 0.012 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.962 0.948 0.924 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 3.588 0.195 0.230 3.354 0.050 0.290 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.427 0.260 -0.610 92 336 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.50 1.00 1.05 1.56 7.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 333. 121. 213. 262. 384. 397. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.290 0.375 0.280 0.362 0.243 0.330 0.216 0.332 0.334 0.287 PACF 0.290 0.318 0.138 0.210 0.043 0.135 0.005 0.133 0.169 0.032 95% C.L. 0.097 0.104 0.116 0.123 0.132 0.136 0.144 0.147 0.153 0.160 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.234 0.122 0.230 0.109 0.215 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009568 3.40389824 2 726012 1 0.88191754 0.00167301 0.00000000 2.73304725 3 726031 1 0.25961533 0.00550873 0.00000000 3.41925931 4 726032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089360 3.49593854 5 726041 1 0.46038064 0.01000423 0.00000000 3.32616758 6 726042 1 0.14832260 0.00660258 0.00000000 3.25014067 7 726051 1 0.82326424 0.00758742 0.00000000 3.24630141 8 726052 1 1.33033824 0.00211966 0.00000000 2.48759508 9 726061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00295748 3.85720730 10 726062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184740 3.74200606 11 726071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00130809 3.57362008 12 726072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00195726 3.53394294 13 726081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00210067 3.98491621 14 726082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00216989 3.85493565 15 726091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00192355 3.78999019 16 726092 1 0.62352329 0.01019520 0.00000000 3.52202773 17 726101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030672 3.76286221 18 726102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082285 3.64324093 19 726111 1 0.36932728 0.00185646 0.00000000 3.00104594 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 1 0.45003721 0.01294780 0.00000000 3.31736422 21 726121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041527 4.01108837 22 726122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087022 4.17013979 23 726131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004473 4.17622042 24 726132 1 0.56840914 0.00652230 0.00000000 3.69490719 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.105 1.130 5.844 0.086 0.366 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.100 1.125 5.414 0.097 0.153 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.050 0.466 3.266 0.045 0.321 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.057 0.499 2.945 0.047 0.459 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.086 0.272 2.962 0.062 0.543 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.081 1.267 7.440 0.061 0.462 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.081 1.950 15.509 0.075 0.035 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.071 0.713 5.415 0.057 0.347 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.086 1.252 5.733 0.064 0.453 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.080 0.702 4.778 0.061 0.434 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.063 0.534 3.508 0.049 0.418 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.067 1.198 5.258 0.052 0.388 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.064 0.359 3.270 0.052 0.451 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.061 0.393 3.106 0.049 0.425 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.074 1.188 5.856 0.063 0.273 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.075 1.078 7.096 0.065 0.286 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.072 1.196 9.140 0.059 0.363 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.090 1.605 9.667 0.059 0.520 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.071 0.487 3.676 0.055 0.458 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.070 0.359 3.709 0.058 0.409 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.088 0.156 2.648 0.088 0.201 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.080 0.790 7.688 0.078 0.182 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.088 1.065 5.377 0.070 0.366 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.077 1.172 5.961 0.069 0.266 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.077 0.873 5.636 0.063 0.357 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.013 0.460 2.873 0.014 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.076 0.927 5.396 0.061 0.377 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.017 0.715 3.140 0.016 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.050 0.156 2.648 0.045 0.035 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.069 0.477 3.389 0.053 0.279 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.086 1.192 6.528 0.070 0.452 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.105 1.950 15.509 0.097 0.543 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 726012 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 726031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 726032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 726041 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 726042 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 726051 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 726052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 726061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 726062 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 726071 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 726082 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 726091 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 726092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 726101 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 726102 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 726111 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 726121 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 726122 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 726131 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 726132 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.102 1.264 6.446 0.086 0.324 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.099 1.124 5.394 0.097 0.144 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.046 0.502 3.341 0.045 0.199 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.053 0.578 3.586 0.047 0.364 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.077 0.234 2.921 0.062 0.443 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.077 1.231 7.483 0.061 0.409 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.079 2.107 16.697 0.075 -0.015 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.067 0.961 6.612 0.057 0.258 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.076 1.326 5.960 0.064 0.325 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.070 0.581 4.349 0.061 0.286 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.059 0.506 3.478 0.049 0.344 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.059 1.431 6.986 0.052 0.223 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.056 0.545 3.750 0.052 0.294 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.057 0.358 2.988 0.049 0.356 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.072 1.141 6.033 0.063 0.215 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.070 1.175 9.118 0.065 0.182 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.071 1.058 8.434 0.059 0.338 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.085 1.678 10.586 0.059 0.472 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.067 0.510 3.598 0.055 0.394 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.065 0.381 4.111 0.058 0.328 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.080 0.248 3.000 0.088 0.044 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.074 1.016 7.473 0.078 0.036 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.083 1.011 5.487 0.070 0.297 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.076 1.158 5.869 0.069 0.246 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.072 0.922 5.988 0.063 0.271 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.013 0.480 3.104 0.014 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.071 1.013 5.678 0.061 0.296 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.016 0.695 3.637 0.016 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.046 0.234 2.921 0.045 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.062 0.508 3.592 0.053 0.207 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.078 1.203 7.230 0.070 0.350 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.102 2.107 16.697 0.097 0.472 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.336 0.115 0.007 0.030 3.141 -0.017 0.687 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.017 SERIES 726032 AND 726071 216 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.687 SERIES 726121 AND 726122 357 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.439 0.412 0.348 0.376 0.271 0.181 0.231 0.311 0.409 0.482 SDEV 0.172 0.172 0.176 0.173 0.203 0.216 0.223 0.229 0.165 0.159 SERR 0.038 0.023 0.022 0.018 0.018 0.014 0.015 0.014 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.890 0.898 0.882 0.908 0.881 0.833 0.876 0.915 0.943 0.957 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.509 0.427 0.366 SDEV 0.182 0.204 0.216 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.961 0.947 0.932 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.996 0.044 0.612 3.849 0.049 -0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.243 0.117 -0.066 162 266 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.65 1.00 1.09 1.74 11.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.153 -0.005 0.133 -0.048 0.095 -0.062 0.115 0.112 0.081 PACF -0.002 0.153 -0.005 0.112 -0.048 0.062 -0.051 0.084 0.142 0.037 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.104 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.024 -0.001 0.153 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.001 0.173 -0.007 0.140 -0.074 0.117 -0.064 0.109 0.076 0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.001 2 -0.001 0.173 3 0.000 0.173 -0.007 4 0.001 0.154 -0.007 0.113 5 0.010 0.153 0.005 0.113 -0.075 6 0.016 0.144 0.004 0.101 -0.076 0.080 7 0.019 0.141 0.009 0.101 -0.070 0.081 -0.044 8 0.022 0.135 0.014 0.094 -0.070 0.071 -0.046 0.070 9 0.014 0.140 0.006 0.102 -0.081 0.070 -0.061 0.067 0.113 10 0.008 0.136 0.009 0.098 -0.077 0.064 -0.061 0.060 0.112 0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2484.21 2486.21 2475.19 2477.17 2473.67 2473.23 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2472.45 2473.61 2473.51 2470.05 2470.87 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.001 0.173 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.00 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.09 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.001 0.173 0.000 0.030 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 726011 2 0.117 0.289 0.109 2 726012 2 0.042 0.125 0.139 3 726031 2 0.048 0.185 0.077 4 726032 2 0.159 0.307 0.164 5 726041 2 0.268 0.318 0.285 6 726042 2 0.239 0.308 0.248 7 726051 2 0.013 -0.014 0.112 8 726052 2 0.114 0.206 0.208 9 726061 2 0.147 0.267 0.180 10 726062 2 0.208 0.199 0.305 11 726071 2 0.185 0.254 0.266 12 726072 2 0.114 0.168 0.252 13 726081 2 0.133 0.243 0.184 14 726082 2 0.187 0.263 0.261 15 726091 2 0.107 0.165 0.232 16 726092 2 0.083 0.143 0.216 17 726101 2 0.165 0.257 0.238 18 726102 2 0.251 0.384 0.186 19 726111 2 0.241 0.277 0.302 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 726112 2 0.165 0.248 0.245 21 726121 2 0.056 0.034 0.228 22 726122 2 0.048 0.028 0.213 23 726131 2 0.134 0.254 0.146 24 726132 2 0.132 0.178 0.276 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.140 0.212 0.211 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.071 0.097 0.063 MEDIAN 2 0.134 0.246 0.222 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.091 0.106 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 -0.014 0.077 LOWER HINGE 2 0.095 0.166 0.172 UPPER HINGE 2 0.186 0.272 0.257 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.268 0.384 0.305 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.096 1.031 6.071 0.100 -0.004 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.097 1.144 5.590 0.103 -0.007 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.045 0.370 3.419 0.049 -0.002 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.048 0.520 3.924 0.055 -0.009 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.066 0.424 3.721 0.073 -0.026 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.068 0.950 6.995 0.071 -0.038 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.079 2.157 16.801 0.074 -0.001 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.063 1.124 7.366 0.064 -0.020 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.071 1.169 5.967 0.074 -0.021 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.064 0.725 4.807 0.068 -0.067 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.053 0.745 4.842 0.055 -0.016 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.056 1.690 8.265 0.056 -0.015 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.053 0.620 4.469 0.059 -0.026 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.051 0.336 3.290 0.055 -0.007 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.068 1.297 7.409 0.068 -0.023 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.067 1.222 9.831 0.069 -0.016 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.065 0.792 7.640 0.067 -0.010 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.074 2.188 14.370 0.072 -0.005 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.058 0.334 4.404 0.063 -0.030 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.060 0.145 4.577 0.065 -0.017 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.078 0.244 3.136 0.088 -0.010 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.072 0.891 6.767 0.078 0.007 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.078 0.865 6.129 0.081 -0.025 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.070 0.964 5.791 0.075 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.067 0.915 6.483 0.070 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.013 0.542 3.301 0.013 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.067 0.878 5.879 0.069 -0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.016 0.685 2.951 0.014 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.045 0.145 3.136 0.049 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.057 0.472 4.437 0.061 -0.024 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.073 1.157 7.388 0.075 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.097 2.188 16.801 0.103 0.007 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.393 0.098 0.006 0.292 3.246 0.136 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.136 SERIES 726032 AND 726071 216 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 726121 AND 726122 357 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.533 0.501 0.413 0.450 0.340 0.235 0.264 0.339 0.468 0.528 SDEV 0.121 0.149 0.164 0.137 0.203 0.177 0.159 0.169 0.139 0.145 SERR 0.026 0.020 0.020 0.014 0.019 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.922 0.927 0.908 0.930 0.912 0.874 0.895 0.925 0.955 0.964 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.533 0.463 0.396 SDEV 0.165 0.156 0.190 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.965 0.954 0.940 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.997 0.044 0.370 3.531 0.053 -0.181 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.104 -0.061 175 253 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.76 1.00 1.08 1.84 13.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.181 -0.093 -0.037 0.100 -0.064 0.061 -0.116 0.075 0.109 0.034 PACF -0.181 -0.130 -0.084 0.067 -0.045 0.060 -0.102 0.037 0.128 0.079 95% C.L. 0.097 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.104 0.104 0.105 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.060 -0.215 -0.147 -0.084 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 -0.006 -0.073 0.083 -0.053 0.048 -0.090 0.094 0.124 0.064 PACF -0.011 -0.006 -0.073 0.081 -0.053 0.044 -0.080 0.084 0.139 0.047 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 -0.011 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.997 0.044 0.509 3.677 0.049 -0.031 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.031 0.182 -0.087 0.123 -0.078 0.085 -0.081 0.117 0.099 0.083 PACF -0.031 0.182 -0.080 0.090 -0.048 0.044 -0.046 0.081 0.148 0.031 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.106 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.050 -0.003 0.164 -0.079 0.090 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES