RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ554N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ554N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 726 1 Baldy Peak DENSITY_MINIMUM PSME - 726 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 2940 3358-10933 1556 19 726 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 726012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1714 1717 / 1734 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 726032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 726041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1743 1747 / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 726051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1762 1762 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 726061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 726071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1706 1708 / 1756 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 726092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1737 1741 / 1746 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 726131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1712 1712 / 1788 1792 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 726132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1808 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.300 0.036 1.476 6.989 0.099 0.342 2 726012 1592 1983 392 0.295 0.031 1.298 6.528 0.103 0.066 3 726031 1771 1983 213 0.314 0.018 0.629 3.357 0.052 0.345 4 726032 1768 1983 216 0.321 0.021 0.209 2.581 0.052 0.471 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.305 0.031 0.035 2.822 0.066 0.608 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.292 0.031 1.280 7.310 0.073 0.483 7 726051 1724 1983 260 0.312 0.030 1.111 7.624 0.083 0.137 8 726052 1717 1983 267 0.301 0.026 0.556 4.450 0.070 0.376 9 726061 1732 1983 252 0.305 0.034 0.949 4.641 0.074 0.550 10 726062 1719 1983 265 0.304 0.027 0.766 3.808 0.067 0.451 11 726071 1637 1983 347 0.335 0.034 0.131 2.757 0.055 0.732 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.335 0.032 0.331 2.987 0.056 0.673 13 726081 1665 1983 319 0.314 0.028 0.392 4.511 0.062 0.538 14 726082 1707 1983 277 0.312 0.024 0.529 3.253 0.059 0.436 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.287 0.029 0.521 3.106 0.075 0.466 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.312 0.032 1.193 9.779 0.078 0.348 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.320 0.029 1.726 10.971 0.074 0.349 18 726102 1733 1983 251 0.303 0.031 2.048 11.374 0.072 0.433 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.284 0.025 0.532 3.345 0.069 0.455 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.300 0.025 0.141 4.563 0.069 0.402 21 726121 1620 1983 364 0.352 0.035 0.254 2.946 0.105 0.081 22 726122 1627 1983 357 0.359 0.033 0.740 7.463 0.089 0.162 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.373 0.038 1.406 6.936 0.086 0.271 24 726132 1630 1983 354 0.346 0.031 0.529 3.254 0.081 0.307 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1556 TO 1983 428 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 318 0.316 0.030 0.783 5.306 0.074 0.395 STANDARD DEVIATION 61 0.023 0.005 0.547 2.691 0.015 0.171 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 325 0.312 0.031 0.592 4.481 0.073 0.417 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.028 0.006 0.875 3.970 0.018 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.284 0.018 0.035 2.581 0.052 0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.300 0.026 0.361 3.179 0.064 0.324 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 0.328 0.033 1.237 7.149 0.082 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.373 0.038 2.048 11.374 0.105 0.732 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.340 0.168 0.010 -0.373 3.202 -0.175 0.820 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.175 SERIES 726072 AND 726081 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.820 SERIES 726071 AND 726072 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.440 0.450 0.403 0.390 0.299 0.258 0.327 0.391 0.482 0.538 SDEV 0.122 0.169 0.179 0.194 0.206 0.199 0.190 0.246 0.161 0.150 SERR 0.027 0.023 0.022 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.015 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.890 0.912 0.904 0.913 0.895 0.887 0.920 0.939 0.957 0.965 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.538 0.462 0.402 SDEV 0.189 0.242 0.192 SERR 0.011 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.965 0.954 0.941 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.310 0.021 0.184 4.061 0.058 0.378 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.565 0.300 -0.063 122 306 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.58 1.00 1.07 1.65 67.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 333. 121. 213. 262. 384. 397. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.377 0.443 0.377 0.430 0.315 0.402 0.316 0.365 0.351 0.339 PACF 0.377 0.351 0.181 0.216 0.027 0.147 0.034 0.083 0.096 0.032 95% C.L. 0.097 0.110 0.125 0.135 0.148 0.154 0.163 0.169 0.176 0.183 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.317 0.134 0.241 0.150 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008128 0.28404048 2 726012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003530 0.30191854 3 726031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007113 0.30647355 4 726032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018096 0.30140501 5 726041 1 0.02706765 0.01462504 0.00000000 0.29996216 6 726042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004307 0.28375888 7 726051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010409 0.32494918 8 726052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010985 0.31584355 9 726061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017027 0.32680997 10 726062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007508 0.31425044 11 726071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022571 0.29432145 12 726072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027558 0.29993784 13 726081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009794 0.33005854 14 726082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008813 0.32416341 15 726091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010576 0.30812457 16 726092 1 0.04502513 0.01183848 0.00000000 0.30175647 17 726101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009991 0.30521536 18 726102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004065 0.29738772 19 726111 1 0.00661936 0.00728321 0.00000000 0.28221983 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 1 0.03203043 0.03170089 0.00000000 0.29634082 21 726121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002401 0.34770593 22 726122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002870 0.36463365 23 726131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002712 0.36756927 24 726132 1 0.04784966 0.00789847 0.00000000 0.32994097 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.115 1.382 6.866 0.099 0.291 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.105 1.320 6.451 0.104 0.046 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.057 0.407 3.091 0.052 0.298 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.054 0.600 3.268 0.052 0.223 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.100 0.189 3.024 0.066 0.583 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.103 1.103 6.528 0.073 0.471 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.092 0.810 7.046 0.084 0.110 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.081 0.453 4.094 0.070 0.299 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.105 1.471 6.084 0.074 0.469 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.086 0.741 4.164 0.066 0.420 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.079 0.148 3.668 0.055 0.568 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.075 0.895 4.015 0.056 0.455 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.083 0.281 5.296 0.062 0.476 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.073 0.677 3.327 0.059 0.380 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.093 0.939 4.300 0.075 0.349 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.098 1.247 10.091 0.078 0.284 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.088 1.838 11.719 0.074 0.293 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.103 2.008 11.172 0.072 0.427 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.088 0.507 3.329 0.069 0.449 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.082 0.195 4.834 0.069 0.357 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.099 0.251 2.970 0.105 0.079 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.091 0.758 7.755 0.089 0.153 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.101 1.348 6.672 0.085 0.279 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.082 0.663 3.945 0.080 0.193 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.089 0.843 5.571 0.074 0.331 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.015 0.525 2.564 0.015 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.090 0.750 4.567 0.072 0.324 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.019 0.853 3.270 0.018 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.054 0.148 2.970 0.052 0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.081 0.430 3.498 0.064 0.251 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.101 1.283 6.769 0.082 0.452 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.115 2.008 11.719 0.105 0.583 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 726012 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 726031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 726032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 726041 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 726042 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 726051 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 726052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 726061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 726062 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 726071 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 726082 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 726091 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 726092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 726101 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 726102 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 726111 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 726121 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 726122 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 726131 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 726132 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.112 1.513 7.602 0.099 0.250 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.104 1.275 6.202 0.104 0.032 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.052 0.447 3.086 0.052 0.180 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.052 0.706 3.782 0.052 0.149 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.999 0.088 0.246 3.210 0.066 0.472 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.999 0.095 1.187 7.451 0.073 0.386 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.087 1.080 8.787 0.084 0.003 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.075 0.703 5.186 0.070 0.180 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.086 1.399 6.439 0.074 0.243 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.074 0.648 3.988 0.066 0.244 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.070 0.069 3.721 0.055 0.458 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.062 0.815 4.093 0.056 0.233 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.073 0.171 6.290 0.062 0.336 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.067 0.700 3.674 0.059 0.283 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.086 0.809 4.139 0.075 0.257 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.093 1.362 11.713 0.078 0.212 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.083 1.708 11.097 0.074 0.218 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.098 1.983 11.754 0.072 0.371 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.082 0.519 3.342 0.069 0.374 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.074 0.178 5.494 0.069 0.230 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.093 0.375 3.300 0.105 -0.052 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.084 1.024 7.575 0.089 -0.013 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.096 1.237 6.330 0.085 0.218 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.081 0.629 3.846 0.080 0.167 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.082 0.866 5.921 0.074 0.226 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.015 0.514 2.717 0.015 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.083 0.757 5.340 0.072 0.231 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.019 0.773 3.762 0.018 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.999 0.052 0.069 3.086 0.052 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.074 0.483 3.751 0.064 0.173 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.093 1.256 7.513 0.082 0.309 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.112 1.983 11.754 0.105 0.472 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.397 0.107 0.006 0.050 2.764 0.110 0.691 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.110 SERIES 726032 AND 726042 178 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.691 SERIES 726121 AND 726122 357 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.444 0.471 0.395 0.384 0.304 0.263 0.317 0.380 0.492 0.554 SDEV 0.139 0.147 0.180 0.194 0.204 0.194 0.193 0.223 0.149 0.139 SERR 0.030 0.020 0.022 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.892 0.918 0.901 0.911 0.897 0.890 0.916 0.936 0.959 0.968 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.541 0.468 0.429 SDEV 0.177 0.203 0.190 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.966 0.955 0.947 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.996 0.054 0.715 3.908 0.058 -0.002 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.121 -0.065 148 280 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.67 1.00 1.09 1.76 9.72 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.163 0.056 0.185 -0.012 0.143 -0.013 0.111 0.092 0.084 PACF -0.002 0.163 0.058 0.164 -0.027 0.092 -0.026 0.056 0.098 0.032 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.103 0.103 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.030 -0.001 0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.005 0.182 0.050 0.188 -0.035 0.170 -0.003 0.139 0.071 0.094 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.005 2 -0.004 0.182 3 -0.014 0.182 0.053 4 -0.023 0.153 0.055 0.162 5 -0.014 0.155 0.063 0.161 -0.051 6 -0.008 0.137 0.056 0.143 -0.049 0.115 7 -0.008 0.137 0.057 0.143 -0.048 0.115 -0.006 8 -0.007 0.128 0.061 0.132 -0.053 0.105 -0.005 0.078 9 -0.014 0.128 0.052 0.136 -0.063 0.100 -0.015 0.079 0.080 10 -0.015 0.126 0.053 0.134 -0.062 0.097 -0.016 0.076 0.080 0.022 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2658.67 2660.66 2648.26 2649.04 2639.69 2640.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2636.85 2638.83 2638.23 2637.51 2639.30 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.004 0.182 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.31 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.004 0.182 -0.002 0.033 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 726011 2 0.077 0.226 0.100 2 726012 2 0.013 0.029 0.102 3 726031 2 0.092 0.138 0.238 4 726032 2 0.041 0.136 0.108 5 726041 2 0.293 0.343 0.275 6 726042 2 0.251 0.278 0.282 7 726051 2 0.017 0.003 0.125 8 726052 2 0.097 0.138 0.236 9 726061 2 0.107 0.196 0.195 10 726062 2 0.146 0.177 0.275 11 726071 2 0.268 0.339 0.262 12 726072 2 0.128 0.172 0.262 13 726081 2 0.173 0.260 0.233 14 726082 2 0.153 0.206 0.270 15 726091 2 0.163 0.181 0.295 16 726092 2 0.122 0.161 0.241 17 726101 2 0.092 0.172 0.213 18 726102 2 0.186 0.285 0.234 19 726111 2 0.238 0.256 0.316 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 726112 2 0.077 0.198 0.143 21 726121 2 0.049 -0.041 0.211 22 726122 2 0.033 -0.011 0.181 23 726131 2 0.086 0.188 0.138 24 726132 2 0.102 0.122 0.270 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.125 0.173 0.217 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.079 0.101 0.066 MEDIAN 2 0.105 0.179 0.235 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.092 0.104 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.013 -0.041 0.100 LOWER HINGE 2 0.077 0.137 0.162 UPPER HINGE 2 0.168 0.241 0.270 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.293 0.343 0.316 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.108 1.313 6.975 0.112 -0.007 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.103 1.340 6.433 0.106 -0.004 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.050 0.376 3.054 0.056 -0.014 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.051 0.685 3.866 0.057 -0.011 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.075 0.249 5.184 0.080 -0.034 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.084 1.172 8.883 0.086 -0.057 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.087 1.164 9.036 0.085 -0.004 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.071 0.868 5.910 0.076 -0.028 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.082 1.227 6.397 0.084 -0.023 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.069 0.797 4.680 0.074 -0.037 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.060 0.297 3.825 0.065 -0.016 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.058 0.943 4.848 0.062 -0.026 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.067 0.174 6.728 0.071 -0.028 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.062 0.625 3.984 0.066 -0.021 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.080 0.816 5.057 0.084 -0.040 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.088 1.508 14.106 0.086 -0.037 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.079 1.398 9.539 0.081 -0.008 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.089 2.432 15.465 0.085 -0.009 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.072 0.417 3.992 0.078 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.072 0.083 5.636 0.077 -0.011 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.091 0.380 3.333 0.101 -0.009 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.082 0.912 7.086 0.087 0.003 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.093 1.263 7.106 0.095 -0.020 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.076 0.419 3.684 0.084 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.077 0.869 6.450 0.081 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.015 0.545 3.148 0.014 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.078 0.842 5.773 0.082 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.019 0.846 3.108 0.013 0.022 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.050 0.083 3.054 0.056 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.068 0.399 3.988 0.073 -0.031 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.087 1.245 7.096 0.086 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.108 2.432 15.465 0.112 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.447 0.087 0.005 0.100 2.635 0.250 0.697 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.250 SERIES 726101 AND 726102 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.697 SERIES 726121 AND 726122 357 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.524 0.536 0.439 0.436 0.374 0.317 0.340 0.398 0.549 0.595 SDEV 0.101 0.130 0.176 0.167 0.205 0.164 0.157 0.163 0.123 0.124 SERR 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018 0.019 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.919 0.936 0.916 0.927 0.923 0.913 0.924 0.941 0.967 0.972 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.564 0.501 0.467 SDEV 0.159 0.153 0.148 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.969 0.960 0.954 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.997 0.052 0.553 3.941 0.062 -0.175 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.281 0.113 -0.065 155 273 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.81 1.00 1.10 1.91 12.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.175 -0.104 0.007 0.124 -0.083 0.088 -0.064 0.049 0.062 0.021 PACF -0.175 -0.139 -0.040 0.108 -0.043 0.098 -0.046 0.039 0.084 0.037 95% C.L. 0.097 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.051 -0.199 -0.139 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.008 -0.025 0.117 -0.050 0.088 -0.041 0.070 0.068 0.038 PACF -0.005 0.008 -0.025 0.117 -0.050 0.087 -0.037 0.056 0.085 0.014 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.005 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.997 0.052 0.637 3.785 0.057 -0.019 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.019 0.213 -0.038 0.169 -0.061 0.129 -0.041 0.098 0.051 0.060 PACF -0.019 0.213 -0.033 0.129 -0.047 0.073 -0.012 0.040 0.086 0.005 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.101 0.101 0.104 0.104 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.047 -0.015 0.213 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES