RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ554W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ554W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 726 1 Baldy Peak WIDTH_RING PSME - 726 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 2940 3358-10933 1556 19 726 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 726012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1714 1717 / 1734 1734 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 726032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1873 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 726041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1963 1967 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 726051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1762 1762 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 726061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1822 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 726071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1706 1708 / 1756 1767 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 726092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1746 1748 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 726131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1712 1712 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.542 0.302 1.264 4.546 0.329 0.735 2 726012 1592 1983 392 0.551 0.339 1.310 4.529 0.354 0.764 3 726031 1771 1983 213 0.631 0.412 1.878 6.762 0.243 0.803 4 726032 1768 1983 216 0.545 0.346 1.999 7.106 0.237 0.856 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.824 0.585 0.950 3.517 0.304 0.860 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.851 0.757 2.034 6.966 0.292 0.898 7 726051 1724 1983 260 0.822 0.413 1.524 5.543 0.271 0.759 8 726052 1717 1983 267 0.779 0.386 1.328 4.181 0.252 0.730 9 726061 1732 1983 252 0.803 0.550 1.668 5.713 0.234 0.912 10 726062 1719 1983 265 0.786 0.444 0.666 2.622 0.211 0.900 11 726071 1637 1983 347 0.722 0.558 0.767 2.433 0.202 0.893 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.605 0.485 1.034 2.733 0.220 0.912 13 726081 1665 1983 319 0.786 0.636 1.406 4.226 0.199 0.948 14 726082 1707 1983 277 0.591 0.449 1.158 3.228 0.202 0.917 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.670 0.476 1.849 7.109 0.257 0.879 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.682 0.571 1.792 5.766 0.266 0.877 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.956 0.755 1.176 3.392 0.218 0.923 18 726102 1733 1983 251 0.792 0.533 1.074 3.035 0.258 0.888 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.736 0.574 1.768 6.106 0.234 0.936 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.902 0.683 1.459 4.851 0.246 0.921 21 726121 1620 1983 364 0.762 0.496 0.740 2.671 0.321 0.820 22 726122 1627 1983 357 0.685 0.504 1.249 4.234 0.278 0.841 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.574 0.254 0.968 4.000 0.253 0.690 24 726132 1630 1983 354 0.610 0.224 0.986 4.288 0.254 0.617 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1556 TO 1983 428 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 319 0.717 0.489 1.335 4.565 0.256 0.845 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.118 0.142 0.407 1.508 0.041 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 325 0.729 0.490 1.287 4.261 0.253 0.878 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.190 0.174 0.708 2.429 0.047 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.542 0.224 0.666 2.433 0.199 0.617 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.608 0.399 1.010 3.310 0.227 0.784 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 0.797 0.573 1.718 5.739 0.275 0.912 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 0.956 0.757 2.034 7.109 0.354 0.948 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.662 0.206 0.012 -1.131 3.674 0.011 0.927 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.011 SERIES 726012 AND 726111 383 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.927 SERIES 726072 AND 726111 251 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.689 0.379 0.437 0.341 0.385 0.425 0.472 0.644 0.672 0.752 SDEV 0.108 0.250 0.215 0.325 0.303 0.206 0.339 0.254 0.170 0.097 SERR 0.024 0.034 0.026 0.034 0.028 0.014 0.022 0.015 0.010 0.006 EPS 0.958 0.885 0.915 0.894 0.926 0.944 0.955 0.977 0.980 0.986 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.633 0.518 0.437 SDEV 0.158 0.182 0.206 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.976 0.963 0.948 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.875 0.662 2.161 8.597 0.215 0.901 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.056 0.233 143 285 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.80 1.00 1.12 1.93 44.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 333. 121. 213. 262. 384. 397. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.899 0.847 0.803 0.757 0.721 0.699 0.693 0.690 0.668 0.650 PACF 0.899 0.205 0.076 -0.001 0.033 0.087 0.127 0.093 -0.055 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.097 0.156 0.195 0.223 0.246 0.265 0.282 0.297 0.312 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.851 0.625 0.169 0.025 0.131 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 1 0.68512517 0.00962689 0.00000000 0.36246705 2 726012 1 0.83103597 0.01289310 0.00000000 0.38649985 3 726031 1 1.26534009 0.01449631 0.00000000 0.24268042 4 726032 1 1.01898897 0.01051821 0.00000000 0.14290348 5 726041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00338282 1.48315585 6 726042 1 2.97584844 0.02050263 0.00000000 0.48258084 7 726051 1 1.12779248 0.01357856 0.00000000 0.51777005 8 726052 1 1.16452038 0.01594307 0.00000000 0.51123244 9 726061 1 1.50218987 0.01050690 0.00000000 0.27667361 10 726062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00469720 1.41035080 11 726071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00435905 1.52678871 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00468314 1.53541553 14 726082 1 1.35058630 0.00925027 0.00000000 0.10649464 15 726091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147749 0.96414703 16 726092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134508 0.96004438 17 726101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00545478 1.74453521 18 726102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00597474 1.54441047 19 726111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104138 0.93589735 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00415856 1.54843092 21 726121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352260 1.40471578 22 726122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00372995 1.35267568 23 726131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098119 0.75286293 24 726132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001193 0.60782510 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.457 1.325 6.040 0.328 0.604 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.541 2.030 8.562 0.355 0.669 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.004 0.328 0.989 4.163 0.242 0.535 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.007 0.354 1.190 4.296 0.236 0.615 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.967 0.498 1.082 4.565 0.303 0.729 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.005 0.551 1.941 10.569 0.292 0.762 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.329 0.399 2.850 0.271 0.506 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.295 0.311 3.208 0.251 0.457 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.010 0.456 1.453 8.065 0.236 0.759 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.062 0.540 3.333 21.181 0.211 0.771 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.254 1.638 6.763 59.250 0.201 0.787 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.991 0.275 0.372 3.499 0.219 0.527 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.317 1.800 5.792 41.518 0.199 0.869 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.021 0.534 1.359 4.991 0.201 0.861 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.991 0.607 1.826 7.798 0.256 0.859 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.985 0.779 1.868 6.089 0.265 0.875 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.978 0.470 0.753 3.512 0.217 0.828 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.245 1.170 4.722 29.570 0.258 0.769 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.991 0.737 1.787 6.227 0.233 0.928 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.984 0.532 1.054 3.914 0.245 0.825 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.009 0.421 0.804 3.434 0.320 0.514 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.220 1.099 5.019 39.022 0.278 0.715 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.997 0.395 0.926 3.976 0.253 0.610 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.367 0.987 4.293 0.253 0.616 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.043 0.632 2.004 12.108 0.255 0.708 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.101 0.403 1.785 14.994 0.041 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.515 1.342 5.516 0.252 0.744 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.024 0.291 1.029 5.621 0.048 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.967 0.275 0.311 2.850 0.199 0.457 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.991 0.381 0.957 3.945 0.226 0.607 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.015 0.672 1.986 9.566 0.275 0.826 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.317 1.800 6.763 59.250 0.355 0.928 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 726011 -67 257 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 726012 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 726031 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 726032 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 726041 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 726042 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 726051 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 726052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 726061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 726062 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 726071 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 726072 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 726081 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 726082 -67 185 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 726091 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 726092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 726101 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 726102 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 726111 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 726112 -67 207 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 726121 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 726122 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 726131 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 726132 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 0.997 0.439 1.114 5.049 0.328 0.575 2 726012 1592 1983 392 0.990 0.465 1.367 5.809 0.355 0.571 3 726031 1771 1983 213 0.998 0.290 0.730 3.810 0.242 0.441 4 726032 1768 1983 216 0.996 0.290 0.824 3.877 0.236 0.465 5 726041 1590 1983 394 0.985 0.427 0.804 3.831 0.303 0.603 6 726042 1556 1945 390 0.987 0.395 1.150 6.814 0.292 0.591 7 726051 1724 1983 260 0.997 0.297 0.273 2.861 0.272 0.397 8 726052 1717 1983 267 0.998 0.275 0.281 3.470 0.251 0.382 9 726061 1732 1983 252 0.988 0.339 0.519 3.176 0.235 0.608 10 726062 1719 1983 265 0.990 0.305 0.569 3.865 0.210 0.593 11 726071 1637 1983 347 0.966 0.434 1.996 11.820 0.200 0.742 12 726072 1733 1983 251 0.997 0.262 0.374 3.328 0.219 0.461 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.016 0.479 1.165 4.782 0.199 0.825 14 726082 1707 1983 277 0.983 0.328 0.563 4.019 0.201 0.697 15 726091 1587 1983 397 0.968 0.444 1.184 5.624 0.256 0.742 16 726092 1592 1983 392 0.970 0.493 0.836 3.411 0.265 0.740 17 726101 1696 1983 288 0.971 0.324 0.239 3.267 0.217 0.669 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.002 0.341 1.010 4.820 0.257 0.518 19 726111 1601 1983 383 0.996 0.461 0.908 3.682 0.233 0.789 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 0.966 0.344 0.548 3.434 0.245 0.614 21 726121 1620 1983 364 0.990 0.365 0.555 3.079 0.320 0.420 22 726122 1627 1983 357 0.983 0.418 1.888 9.082 0.278 0.585 23 726131 1620 1983 364 0.992 0.330 0.527 3.126 0.253 0.499 24 726132 1630 1983 354 0.994 0.328 0.669 3.416 0.253 0.549 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 0.988 0.370 0.837 4.561 0.255 0.586 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.013 0.071 0.462 2.103 0.041 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 0.990 0.343 0.767 3.821 0.252 0.588 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.014 0.122 0.595 1.565 0.049 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 213 0.966 0.262 0.239 2.861 0.199 0.382 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.983 0.314 0.537 3.370 0.226 0.482 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 0.997 0.436 1.132 4.935 0.275 0.683 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.016 0.493 1.996 11.820 0.355 0.825 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.453 0.139 0.008 -0.443 3.773 0.005 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.005 SERIES 726011 AND 726081 319 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 726041 AND 726042 356 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.602 0.385 0.471 0.365 0.410 0.412 0.457 0.517 0.606 0.679 SDEV 0.155 0.238 0.197 0.277 0.265 0.213 0.272 0.274 0.166 0.122 SERR 0.034 0.032 0.024 0.029 0.024 0.014 0.018 0.017 0.010 0.007 EPS 0.940 0.887 0.926 0.904 0.933 0.941 0.952 0.962 0.974 0.981 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.635 0.519 0.431 SDEV 0.146 0.166 0.215 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.977 0.963 0.947 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.978 0.274 0.462 3.206 0.216 0.534 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.427 0.203 0.055 145 283 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.81 1.00 1.07 1.88 35.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.532 0.459 0.341 0.352 0.228 0.243 0.200 0.210 0.146 0.124 PACF 0.532 0.245 0.039 0.137 -0.064 0.067 0.025 0.042 -0.025 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.097 0.121 0.136 0.144 0.152 0.155 0.159 0.161 0.163 0.165 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.332 0.402 0.249 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.481 0.435 0.313 0.325 0.192 0.225 0.161 0.180 0.082 0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.481 2 0.353 0.265 3 0.342 0.250 0.044 4 0.336 0.219 0.001 0.124 5 0.345 0.219 0.016 0.146 -0.066 6 0.349 0.208 0.015 0.130 -0.091 0.074 7 0.349 0.208 0.014 0.130 -0.092 0.073 0.002 8 0.349 0.205 0.018 0.125 -0.092 0.065 -0.012 0.041 9 0.352 0.204 0.022 0.119 -0.084 0.066 0.002 0.064 -0.067 10 0.349 0.208 0.022 0.122 -0.088 0.072 0.003 0.074 -0.050 -0.049 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3973.37 3862.78 3833.58 3834.76 3830.13 3830.26 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3829.93 3831.93 3833.22 3833.28 3834.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.353 0.265 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 28.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 139.93 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.353 0.390 0.232 0.185 0.127 0.094 0.067 0.049 0.035 0.0252 0.018 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0010 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 726011 2 0.378 0.442 0.231 2 726012 2 0.414 0.388 0.320 3 726031 2 0.202 0.426 0.044 4 726032 2 0.241 0.386 0.173 5 726041 2 0.434 0.413 0.317 6 726042 2 0.388 0.448 0.241 7 726051 2 0.203 0.310 0.225 8 726052 2 0.172 0.319 0.169 9 726061 2 0.426 0.456 0.263 10 726062 2 0.449 0.409 0.335 11 726071 2 0.663 0.717 0.115 12 726072 2 0.260 0.350 0.243 13 726081 2 0.730 0.667 0.213 14 726082 2 0.546 0.489 0.302 15 726091 2 0.601 0.544 0.277 16 726092 2 0.592 0.585 0.219 17 726101 2 0.488 0.506 0.248 18 726102 2 0.354 0.396 0.271 19 726111 2 0.666 0.583 0.269 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 726112 2 0.420 0.481 0.223 21 726121 2 0.235 0.310 0.264 22 726122 2 0.465 0.389 0.367 23 726131 2 0.326 0.352 0.295 24 726132 2 0.405 0.344 0.374 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.419 0.446 0.250 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.157 0.109 0.075 MEDIAN 2 0.417 0.420 0.255 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.224 0.129 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.172 0.310 0.044 LOWER HINGE 2 0.293 0.369 0.221 UPPER HINGE 2 0.517 0.498 0.299 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.730 0.717 0.374 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 726011 1600 1983 384 1.000 0.349 0.532 3.522 0.394 -0.031 2 726012 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.362 0.723 4.806 0.415 -0.057 3 726031 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.259 0.564 3.529 0.289 0.003 4 726032 1768 1983 216 1.000 0.252 0.789 3.791 0.276 -0.001 5 726041 1590 1983 394 1.000 0.322 0.621 3.954 0.353 -0.024 6 726042 1556 1945 390 1.000 0.310 0.860 6.119 0.349 -0.012 7 726051 1724 1983 260 1.000 0.265 0.253 2.889 0.301 -0.004 8 726052 1717 1983 267 1.000 0.250 0.127 3.177 0.283 -0.001 9 726061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.256 0.275 4.020 0.274 0.016 10 726062 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.226 0.009 3.128 0.248 0.039 11 726071 1637 1983 347 1.000 0.251 1.043 7.546 0.256 0.043 12 726072 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.226 0.270 3.723 0.251 -0.002 13 726081 1665 1983 319 1.000 0.248 0.583 4.447 0.255 0.025 14 726082 1707 1983 277 1.000 0.222 0.371 4.059 0.241 -0.039 15 726091 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.278 0.459 4.116 0.308 -0.020 16 726092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.317 0.615 4.463 0.343 -0.034 17 726101 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.232 0.330 3.839 0.256 -0.013 18 726102 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.275 0.576 4.380 0.307 -0.009 19 726111 1601 1983 383 1.000 0.266 0.581 4.014 0.279 -0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 726112 1674 1983 310 1.000 0.263 0.547 4.388 0.281 -0.020 21 726121 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.320 0.377 3.068 0.359 -0.004 22 726122 1627 1983 357 1.000 0.306 1.329 8.839 0.322 -0.012 23 726131 1620 1983 364 1.000 0.273 0.539 4.490 0.301 -0.038 24 726132 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.254 0.285 3.831 0.291 -0.034 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 320 1.000 0.274 0.528 4.339 0.301 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.000 0.039 0.290 1.375 0.047 0.025 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 333 1.000 0.264 0.543 4.017 0.290 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.058 0.310 0.829 0.068 0.030 MINIMUM VALUE 213 1.000 0.222 0.009 2.889 0.241 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.250 0.308 3.626 0.265 -0.032 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 383 1.000 0.308 0.618 4.455 0.333 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 397 1.000 0.362 1.329 8.839 0.415 0.043 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.564 0.078 0.005 0.126 3.840 0.358 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.358 SERIES 726011 AND 726082 277 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 726051 AND 726052 260 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. CORR 21. 55. 66. 91. 120. 231. 231. 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.639 0.493 0.493 0.433 0.442 0.533 0.604 0.621 0.690 0.698 SDEV 0.112 0.160 0.148 0.208 0.205 0.113 0.119 0.104 0.090 0.095 SERR 0.025 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.019 0.007 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.006 EPS 0.948 0.924 0.931 0.926 0.941 0.963 0.973 0.975 0.982 0.982 NSS 10.3 12.6 14.0 16.4 20.0 22.6 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 YEAR 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 276. 276. 253. RBAR 0.655 0.603 0.550 SDEV 0.110 0.113 0.143 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.009 EPS 0.979 0.973 0.967 NSS 24.0 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.995 0.215 0.170 3.145 0.249 -0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.321 0.111 0.051 143 285 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.62 1.00 1.06 1.68 23.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.063 -0.096 -0.034 0.116 -0.079 0.005 0.008 0.074 -0.008 -0.061 PACF -0.063 -0.100 -0.047 0.103 -0.073 0.015 0.003 0.061 0.019 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.016 -0.069 -0.101 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 0.007 -0.048 0.101 -0.075 0.019 0.005 0.070 -0.007 -0.051 PACF -0.005 0.007 -0.048 0.101 -0.075 0.016 0.016 0.054 0.009 -0.061 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 -0.005 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1556 1983 428 0.992 0.252 0.467 3.300 0.208 0.469 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.468 0.438 0.250 0.265 0.115 0.140 0.095 0.112 0.054 0.027 PACF 0.468 0.281 -0.040 0.093 -0.081 0.038 0.033 0.023 -0.024 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.097 0.116 0.131 0.135 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.286 0.336 0.286 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.90 MINUTES