RUN: AZ001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: AZ555E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: AZ555E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 695 1 Mt. Lemon WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 695 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 2700 3227-11047 1568 19 695 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 695011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 695012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 4 GAPS / 1904 1904 / 1925 1925 / 1934 1934 / 1954 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 695111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1670 1670 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 695121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1670 1672 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 695122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1670 1672 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 695011 1587 1983 397 0.510 0.361 1.958 8.742 0.389 0.799 2 695012 1568 1983 416 0.505 0.410 1.898 6.928 0.388 0.835 3 695021 1831 1983 153 1.142 0.503 0.831 4.140 0.320 0.675 4 695022 1836 1983 148 1.161 0.513 0.525 2.753 0.304 0.674 5 695031 1672 1983 312 0.713 0.416 1.222 4.199 0.266 0.870 6 695032 1678 1983 306 0.679 0.360 1.004 3.929 0.278 0.825 7 695041 1714 1983 270 0.712 0.398 0.538 2.714 0.317 0.833 8 695042 1732 1983 252 0.719 0.336 0.737 3.600 0.306 0.756 9 695051 1719 1983 265 0.712 0.363 0.990 4.000 0.369 0.658 10 695052 1718 1983 266 0.822 0.412 1.195 5.318 0.319 0.720 11 695061 1672 1747 76 0.798 0.256 0.498 3.137 0.242 0.443 12 695062 1749 1983 235 0.590 0.261 0.418 3.134 0.411 0.504 13 695071 1784 1983 200 0.726 0.366 0.450 2.677 0.364 0.716 14 695072 1771 1983 213 0.914 0.430 0.530 3.175 0.348 0.688 15 695081 1633 1983 351 0.611 0.259 1.073 4.725 0.265 0.729 16 695082 1583 1983 401 0.544 0.297 1.586 7.203 0.298 0.788 17 695091 1705 1983 279 0.698 0.321 0.708 3.202 0.204 0.854 18 695092 1736 1983 248 0.690 0.262 0.783 3.505 0.223 0.761 19 695101 1714 1983 270 0.768 0.350 0.904 4.035 0.256 0.751 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 695102 1700 1983 284 0.830 0.384 0.892 4.044 0.246 0.770 21 695111 1612 1983 372 0.526 0.249 0.973 4.078 0.295 0.721 22 695112 1621 1983 363 0.583 0.278 0.818 3.600 0.299 0.753 23 695121 1585 1983 399 0.469 0.274 1.776 10.182 0.290 0.775 24 695122 1574 1983 410 0.473 0.235 1.228 5.683 0.260 0.760 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1568 TO 1983 416 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 286 0.704 0.346 0.981 4.529 0.302 0.736 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.183 0.079 0.449 1.937 0.054 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 274 0.705 0.355 0.898 4.018 0.299 0.754 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.219 0.136 0.585 1.833 0.072 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 75 0.469 0.235 0.418 2.677 0.204 0.443 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 241 0.564 0.268 0.623 3.188 0.263 0.702 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 367 0.783 0.404 1.208 5.021 0.334 0.793 MAXIMUM VALUE 412 1.161 0.513 1.958 10.182 0.411 0.870 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 269 0.541 0.234 0.014 -1.238 4.223 -0.243 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.243 SERIES 695031 AND 695121 312 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 695031 AND 695032 306 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 28. 28. 55. 120. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.633 0.582 0.590 0.540 0.405 0.396 0.500 0.551 0.640 0.636 SDEV 0.163 0.176 0.144 0.213 0.210 0.271 0.185 0.160 0.142 0.138 SERR 0.052 0.045 0.027 0.040 0.028 0.025 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.917 0.915 0.930 0.932 0.913 0.924 0.952 0.962 0.974 0.975 NSS 6.4 7.7 9.3 11.8 15.4 18.4 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.5 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.574 0.524 0.665 0.570 SDEV 0.148 0.179 0.124 0.160 SERR 0.009 0.011 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.969 0.962 0.979 0.968 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 1983 416 0.686 0.306 1.578 6.742 0.245 0.755 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.449 0.199 0.148 169 247 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 1.16 1.00 1.15 2.31 11.73 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 274. 126. 76. 242. 368. 416. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.754 0.652 0.532 0.469 0.397 0.368 0.338 0.372 0.408 0.447 PACF 0.754 0.195 -0.025 0.062 -0.004 0.065 0.036 0.157 0.135 0.099 95% C.L. 0.098 0.143 0.169 0.185 0.196 0.204 0.210 0.215 0.221 0.228 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.610 0.594 0.226 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 695011 1 1.05028939 0.01145496 0.00000000 0.28210372 2 695012 1 1.39655697 0.01180799 0.00000000 0.21996668 3 695021 1 1.41496193 0.04769038 0.00000000 0.95308721 4 695022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00849563 1.79407334 5 695031 1 1.26321876 0.01202744 0.00000000 0.38633460 6 695032 1 1.10024619 0.01315212 0.00000000 0.41225505 7 695041 1 0.93668658 0.01635873 0.00000000 0.50406194 8 695042 1 0.75174469 0.01247153 0.00000000 0.49140331 9 695051 1 1.00599027 0.01370703 0.00000000 0.44442403 10 695052 1 1.24476516 0.01540819 0.00000000 0.52520555 11 695061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00333917 0.66907370 12 695062 1 0.31463578 0.02015711 0.00000000 0.52448422 13 695071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445691 1.17391956 14 695072 1 1.02624536 0.01449111 0.00000000 0.59909284 15 695081 1 0.47369286 0.00447462 0.00000000 0.37278396 16 695082 1 1.34872043 0.05510553 0.00000000 0.48504582 17 695091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00328286 1.15759289 18 695092 1 0.70039111 0.01197234 0.00000000 0.46793735 19 695101 1 1.00053346 0.01560414 0.00000000 0.53538716 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 695102 1 1.02325118 0.00985581 0.00000000 0.48847520 21 695111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00132830 0.77236193 22 695112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159362 0.87331706 23 695121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112736 0.24176390 24 695122 1 0.61508363 0.05483666 0.00000000 0.44403487 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 695011 1587 1983 397 0.996 0.457 0.308 2.686 0.388 0.526 2 695012 1568 1983 416 0.996 0.438 0.591 3.632 0.399 0.432 3 695021 1831 1983 153 1.001 0.373 0.566 3.884 0.318 0.538 4 695022 1836 1983 148 0.999 0.298 -0.065 3.048 0.303 0.277 5 695031 1672 1983 312 1.001 0.346 -0.033 3.664 0.266 0.601 6 695032 1678 1983 306 1.000 0.340 -0.013 3.762 0.277 0.574 7 695041 1714 1983 270 0.999 0.492 0.518 3.261 0.316 0.723 8 695042 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.387 0.333 3.225 0.305 0.578 9 695051 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.385 0.786 5.109 0.367 0.356 10 695052 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.341 0.368 3.777 0.317 0.362 11 695061 1672 1747 76 1.000 0.303 0.191 2.558 0.240 0.436 12 695062 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.427 0.339 3.114 0.409 0.434 13 695071 1784 1983 200 1.002 0.373 0.166 3.201 0.362 0.399 14 695072 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.387 0.047 2.717 0.347 0.482 15 695081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.383 0.963 4.994 0.265 0.659 16 695082 1583 1983 401 1.001 0.435 0.405 2.886 0.298 0.716 17 695091 1705 1983 279 1.013 0.277 0.621 5.548 0.203 0.605 18 695092 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.273 -0.079 2.911 0.222 0.519 19 695101 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.329 -0.169 3.071 0.255 0.585 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 695102 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.350 0.031 2.775 0.245 0.639 21 695111 1612 1983 372 1.000 0.370 0.628 4.356 0.297 0.553 22 695112 1621 1983 363 0.997 0.349 0.188 3.351 0.298 0.543 23 695121 1585 1983 399 1.004 0.561 1.990 9.297 0.292 0.733 24 695122 1574 1983 410 0.999 0.452 0.577 3.426 0.263 0.730 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.380 0.386 3.761 0.302 0.542 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.003 0.069 0.454 1.418 0.055 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 274 1.000 0.373 0.336 3.306 0.298 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 126 0.001 0.090 0.545 0.851 0.069 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.996 0.273 -0.169 2.558 0.203 0.277 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 241 1.000 0.341 0.039 2.979 0.264 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.431 0.584 3.830 0.333 0.622 MAXIMUM VALUE 416 1.013 0.561 1.990 9.297 0.409 0.733 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 695011 -67 265 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 695012 -67 278 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 695021 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 695022 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 695031 -67 209 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 695032 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 695041 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 695042 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 695051 -67 177 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 695052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 695061 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 695062 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 695071 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 695072 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 695081 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 695082 -67 268 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 695091 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 695092 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 695101 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 695102 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 695111 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 695112 -67 243 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 695121 -67 267 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 695122 -67 274 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 695011 1587 1983 397 0.996 0.419 0.243 2.810 0.389 0.377 2 695012 1568 1983 416 0.998 0.434 0.635 3.832 0.399 0.412 3 695021 1831 1983 153 0.997 0.310 -0.165 3.272 0.318 0.348 4 695022 1836 1983 148 0.999 0.288 -0.202 3.099 0.303 0.238 5 695031 1672 1983 312 0.998 0.337 -0.174 3.475 0.266 0.584 6 695032 1678 1983 306 0.996 0.315 -0.436 3.444 0.277 0.500 7 695041 1714 1983 270 0.983 0.429 0.327 2.937 0.316 0.672 8 695042 1732 1983 252 0.995 0.356 0.064 2.762 0.305 0.510 9 695051 1719 1983 265 0.998 0.372 0.637 4.699 0.367 0.328 10 695052 1718 1983 266 0.999 0.335 0.286 3.629 0.318 0.342 11 695061 1672 1747 76 0.996 0.286 0.330 2.906 0.239 0.379 12 695062 1749 1983 235 0.998 0.422 0.321 3.050 0.409 0.419 13 695071 1784 1983 200 0.997 0.361 0.096 3.110 0.363 0.366 14 695072 1771 1983 213 0.998 0.375 -0.026 2.817 0.347 0.460 15 695081 1633 1983 351 0.996 0.352 0.523 3.666 0.264 0.615 16 695082 1583 1983 401 0.985 0.355 0.006 2.792 0.298 0.585 17 695091 1705 1983 279 0.999 0.252 0.079 3.678 0.203 0.533 18 695092 1736 1983 248 0.998 0.263 -0.152 2.983 0.222 0.482 19 695101 1714 1983 270 0.993 0.308 -0.107 3.145 0.255 0.533 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 695102 1700 1983 284 0.991 0.319 0.170 2.723 0.245 0.578 21 695111 1612 1983 372 0.995 0.340 0.431 3.892 0.297 0.483 22 695112 1621 1983 363 0.996 0.324 0.042 3.535 0.298 0.482 23 695121 1585 1983 399 0.986 0.479 1.290 5.836 0.292 0.678 24 695122 1574 1983 410 0.987 0.404 0.994 5.900 0.263 0.649 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 0.995 0.352 0.217 3.500 0.302 0.481 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.005 0.057 0.397 0.865 0.055 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 274 0.996 0.346 0.133 3.209 0.298 0.483 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 126 0.004 0.077 0.447 0.750 0.069 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 76 0.983 0.252 -0.436 2.723 0.203 0.238 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 241 0.994 0.312 -0.066 2.922 0.264 0.378 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 367 0.998 0.389 0.381 3.672 0.333 0.581 MAXIMUM VALUE 416 0.999 0.479 1.290 5.900 0.409 0.678 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 269 0.534 0.131 0.008 -0.673 4.231 -0.079 0.871 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.079 SERIES 695041 AND 695061 34 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.871 SERIES 695031 AND 695032 306 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 28. 28. 55. 120. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.577 0.626 0.577 0.552 0.456 0.401 0.501 0.561 0.653 0.652 SDEV 0.189 0.130 0.161 0.212 0.181 0.220 0.174 0.181 0.129 0.124 SERR 0.060 0.034 0.030 0.040 0.024 0.020 0.014 0.014 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.897 0.928 0.927 0.936 0.928 0.925 0.952 0.964 0.976 0.977 NSS 6.4 7.7 9.3 11.8 15.4 18.4 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.5 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.575 0.571 0.671 0.619 SDEV 0.142 0.161 0.124 0.129 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.969 0.968 0.979 0.974 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 1983 416 0.986 0.285 -0.064 3.108 0.250 0.489 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.402 0.131 0.104 113 303 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.46 1.00 1.08 1.55 14.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.488 0.303 0.132 0.056 -0.010 -0.046 -0.112 -0.111 -0.064 -0.022 PACF 0.488 0.086 -0.059 -0.012 -0.037 -0.033 -0.088 -0.018 0.038 0.021 95% C.L. 0.098 0.119 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.246 0.446 0.086 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.379 0.182 0.053 -0.021 -0.097 -0.111 -0.139 -0.106 -0.039 -0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.379 2 0.362 0.045 3 0.363 0.057 -0.035 4 0.362 0.060 -0.019 -0.044 5 0.358 0.058 -0.014 -0.014 -0.085 6 0.354 0.058 -0.015 -0.011 -0.068 -0.047 7 0.351 0.053 -0.015 -0.012 -0.063 -0.021 -0.075 8 0.349 0.052 -0.017 -0.012 -0.064 -0.020 -0.068 -0.021 9 0.350 0.054 -0.016 -0.011 -0.063 -0.019 -0.069 -0.030 0.026 10 0.350 0.054 -0.016 -0.011 -0.063 -0.019 -0.069 -0.030 0.026 0.000 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3808.10 3745.65 3746.82 3748.30 3749.49 3748.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3749.57 3749.22 3751.04 3752.76 3754.76 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.379 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.35 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.379 0.144 0.054 0.021 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 695011 1 0.144 0.377 2 695012 1 0.195 0.414 3 695021 1 0.169 0.351 4 695022 1 0.058 0.238 5 695031 1 0.361 0.588 6 695032 1 0.263 0.502 7 695041 1 0.456 0.672 8 695042 1 0.278 0.511 9 695051 1 0.125 0.329 10 695052 1 0.152 0.343 11 695061 1 0.200 0.379 12 695062 1 0.183 0.421 13 695071 1 0.142 0.367 14 695072 1 0.229 0.461 15 695081 1 0.388 0.619 16 695082 1 0.350 0.586 17 695091 1 0.286 0.535 18 695092 1 0.234 0.482 19 695101 1 0.292 0.538 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 695102 1 0.340 0.581 21 695111 1 0.237 0.485 22 695112 1 0.234 0.483 23 695121 1 0.474 0.680 24 695122 1 0.433 0.651 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.259 0.483 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.110 0.119 MEDIAN 1 0.235 0.484 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.169 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.058 0.238 LOWER HINGE 1 0.176 0.378 UPPER HINGE 1 0.345 0.584 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.474 0.680 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 695011 1587 1983 397 1.000 0.387 0.150 3.119 0.448 -0.015 2 695012 1568 1983 416 1.000 0.395 0.359 3.399 0.469 -0.068 3 695021 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.290 -0.268 3.037 0.368 -0.076 4 695022 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.280 -0.348 3.023 0.323 -0.009 5 695031 1672 1983 312 1.000 0.272 -0.439 3.876 0.323 -0.089 6 695032 1678 1983 306 1.000 0.272 -0.566 3.697 0.327 -0.059 7 695041 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.318 0.023 3.529 0.373 -0.063 8 695042 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.306 -0.165 3.187 0.368 -0.076 9 695051 1719 1983 265 1.000 0.352 0.278 3.589 0.417 -0.046 10 695052 1718 1983 266 1.000 0.314 0.166 3.532 0.360 -0.068 11 695061 1672 1747 76 1.000 0.265 0.390 3.338 0.285 -0.095 12 695062 1749 1983 235 1.000 0.382 0.107 2.671 0.463 -0.034 13 695071 1784 1983 200 1.000 0.336 -0.061 3.212 0.405 -0.034 14 695072 1771 1983 213 1.000 0.333 -0.159 2.868 0.402 -0.069 15 695081 1633 1983 351 1.000 0.276 0.183 4.022 0.326 -0.056 16 695082 1583 1983 401 1.000 0.288 -0.211 3.242 0.351 -0.060 17 695091 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.213 -0.180 3.500 0.242 -0.013 18 695092 1736 1983 248 1.000 0.230 -0.480 3.864 0.262 -0.021 19 695101 1714 1983 270 1.000 0.260 -0.220 3.616 0.301 0.035 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 695102 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.260 -0.015 3.725 0.301 -0.024 21 695111 1612 1983 372 1.000 0.298 -0.010 3.569 0.342 -0.024 22 695112 1621 1983 363 1.000 0.283 -0.344 3.715 0.341 0.011 23 695121 1585 1983 399 1.000 0.350 1.358 8.198 0.371 -0.089 24 695122 1574 1983 410 1.000 0.306 0.811 7.214 0.315 -0.084 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 287 1.000 0.303 0.015 3.781 0.354 -0.047 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.047 0.427 1.262 0.059 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 274 1.000 0.294 -0.038 3.530 0.346 -0.058 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 126 0.000 0.062 0.418 0.520 0.069 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 76 1.000 0.213 -0.566 2.671 0.242 -0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 241 1.000 0.272 -0.244 3.200 0.319 -0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 367 1.000 0.334 0.175 3.720 0.388 -0.022 MAXIMUM VALUE 416 1.000 0.395 1.358 8.198 0.469 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 269 0.614 0.098 0.006 -0.282 3.070 0.262 0.879 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.262 SERIES 695041 AND 695061 34 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.879 SERIES 695031 AND 695032 306 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 97.46 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 55.80 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 10. 15. 28. 28. 55. 120. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.592 0.593 0.552 0.542 0.557 0.515 0.551 0.634 0.627 0.660 SDEV 0.160 0.132 0.134 0.162 0.129 0.148 0.150 0.096 0.104 0.106 SERR 0.051 0.034 0.025 0.031 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.902 0.918 0.920 0.933 0.951 0.951 0.960 0.973 0.973 0.978 NSS 6.4 7.7 9.3 11.8 15.4 18.4 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.5 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.632 0.612 0.721 0.682 SDEV 0.128 0.140 0.096 0.114 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.975 0.973 0.983 0.980 NSS 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 1983 416 0.993 0.242 -0.358 3.450 0.285 -0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.324 0.104 0.076 124 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.54 1.00 1.07 1.61 12.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.053 0.079 0.002 0.003 -0.032 0.000 -0.104 -0.059 -0.017 0.029 PACF -0.053 0.077 0.010 -0.002 -0.033 -0.003 -0.100 -0.069 -0.009 0.039 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.077 0.006 0.001 -0.032 -0.007 -0.108 -0.065 -0.019 0.029 PACF 0.004 0.077 0.005 -0.004 -0.033 -0.007 -0.104 -0.064 -0.003 0.040 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.006 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1568 1983 416 0.993 0.264 -0.194 3.128 0.246 0.407 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.406 0.218 0.081 0.015 -0.040 -0.064 -0.137 -0.110 -0.050 0.000 PACF 0.406 0.063 -0.033 -0.023 -0.045 -0.035 -0.106 -0.013 0.032 0.029 95% C.L. 0.098 0.113 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.120 0.121 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.169 0.407 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES