RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit015n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit015n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 380 1 Inverey DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 380 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 500 5700-335 1706 1976 - 380 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 380011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 380021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 25 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1813 / 1880 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 380022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 2 GAPS / 1915 1926 / 1964 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 380031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1769 1773 / 1923 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 380041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 380051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1904 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 381061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 381071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1863 1867 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 381072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 381082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1892 1896 / 1948 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 381091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 382101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1792 1796 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 0.410 0.034 0.166 3.551 0.052 0.672 2 380012 1731 1976 246 0.403 0.027 0.463 3.057 0.057 0.347 3 380021 1706 1976 271 0.401 0.040 0.273 2.268 0.064 0.657 4 380022 1720 1976 257 0.388 0.029 -1.542 9.721 0.061 0.404 5 380031 1754 1976 223 0.350 0.023 0.092 3.277 0.049 0.549 6 380032 1792 1976 185 0.363 0.022 0.347 4.147 0.051 0.403 7 380041 1754 1976 223 0.391 0.031 0.139 2.955 0.059 0.516 8 380042 1738 1848 111 0.309 0.022 0.016 3.670 0.059 0.462 9 380051 1744 1976 233 0.437 0.034 0.706 3.666 0.049 0.624 10 381052 1731 1976 246 0.401 0.040 0.302 2.622 0.053 0.750 11 381061 1809 1976 168 0.335 0.021 0.327 3.581 0.056 0.358 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.348 0.028 0.548 3.188 0.054 0.603 13 381071 1754 1976 223 0.332 0.031 -0.021 2.731 0.055 0.702 14 381072 1775 1976 202 0.331 0.034 0.551 3.372 0.069 0.619 15 381081 1731 1975 245 0.395 0.038 0.167 3.106 0.058 0.642 16 381082 1721 1976 256 0.385 0.027 0.326 3.201 0.058 0.409 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.407 0.034 0.400 3.180 0.055 0.631 18 381092 1724 1976 253 0.428 0.036 0.190 2.611 0.055 0.646 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.371 0.041 -2.393 22.968 0.072 0.420 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 0.352 0.032 0.348 2.914 0.055 0.700 21 382111 1793 1976 184 0.318 0.038 1.193 5.189 0.052 0.825 22 382112 1769 1976 208 0.319 0.026 0.775 4.834 0.054 0.585 23 382121 1784 1976 193 0.331 0.035 -0.311 3.505 0.052 0.818 24 382122 1783 1976 194 0.329 0.029 0.547 3.843 0.052 0.712 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1706 TO 1976 271 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.368 0.031 0.150 4.465 0.056 0.586 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.038 0.006 0.728 4.199 0.006 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 222 0.367 0.031 0.314 3.324 0.055 0.621 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.070 0.008 0.390 0.750 0.007 0.245 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.309 0.021 -2.393 2.268 0.049 0.347 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 195 0.332 0.027 0.115 3.006 0.052 0.441 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 246 0.401 0.035 0.505 3.756 0.059 0.686 MAXIMUM VALUE 256 0.437 0.041 1.193 22.968 0.072 0.825 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.228 0.202 0.012 -0.044 2.441 -0.224 0.691 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.224 SERIES 381072 AND 382112 202 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.691 SERIES 382121 AND 382122 193 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.205 0.260 0.244 0.221 0.323 0.393 0.180 0.274 SDEV 0.195 0.194 0.235 0.218 0.218 0.275 0.224 0.210 SERR 0.029 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.017 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.798 0.877 0.882 0.871 0.917 0.937 0.835 0.897 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.372 0.017 0.298 3.921 0.037 0.442 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.222 0.184 -0.023 23 248 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.13 1.02 1.05 1.18 3.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 225. 55. 111. 198. 253. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.441 0.321 0.308 0.293 0.316 0.255 0.249 0.304 0.251 0.216 PACF 0.441 0.157 0.152 0.113 0.140 0.027 0.060 0.130 0.015 0.003 95% C.L. 0.121 0.143 0.153 0.162 0.170 0.178 0.184 0.189 0.196 0.200 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.258 0.315 0.073 0.100 0.067 0.140 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011937 0.39430323 2 380012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009466 0.41465738 3 380021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010671 0.38874453 4 380022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000902 0.38619095 5 380031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001270 0.34823573 6 380032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016781 0.34758285 7 380041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004294 0.38995525 8 380042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014207 0.31705487 9 380051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013868 0.41998541 10 381052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034147 0.35916975 11 381061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006911 0.32951736 12 381062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003069 0.34456357 13 381071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017394 0.31251988 14 381072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010712 0.34070694 15 381081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023091 0.36690399 16 381082 1 0.03773187 0.00277176 0.00000000 0.35693386 17 381091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011000 0.39117965 18 381092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012574 0.41173914 19 382101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006980 0.36219847 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011274 0.36426878 21 382111 1 0.19039729 0.14144738 0.00000000 0.31090707 22 382112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010944 0.30755436 23 382121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040341 0.37058130 24 382122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018107 0.34703594 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.078 0.363 3.419 0.052 0.645 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.064 0.379 3.119 0.057 0.296 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.093 0.128 2.389 0.063 0.634 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.075 -1.433 9.171 0.059 0.427 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.063 0.094 3.360 0.047 0.540 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.057 0.362 3.293 0.050 0.286 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.083 0.222 3.186 0.059 0.575 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.071 0.259 4.041 0.059 0.448 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.076 0.553 3.424 0.048 0.608 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.081 1.225 6.387 0.053 0.608 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.061 0.354 3.586 0.055 0.335 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.079 0.555 3.165 0.054 0.599 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.086 0.029 2.704 0.054 0.644 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.103 0.674 3.622 0.069 0.606 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.087 0.667 4.545 0.058 0.559 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.070 0.309 3.272 0.058 0.420 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.083 0.349 3.054 0.054 0.623 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.081 0.313 2.635 0.055 0.616 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.110 -2.355 22.994 0.072 0.402 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.088 0.494 2.944 0.055 0.683 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.093 0.383 2.623 0.052 0.744 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.080 0.893 6.069 0.054 0.556 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.081 0.152 3.690 0.052 0.687 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.082 0.806 4.081 0.052 0.668 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.080 0.241 4.616 0.056 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.013 0.725 4.188 0.006 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.081 0.358 3.389 0.055 0.603 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.014 0.366 0.974 0.006 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.057 -2.355 2.389 0.047 0.286 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.073 0.187 3.086 0.052 0.438 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.087 0.554 4.061 0.058 0.639 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.110 1.225 22.994 0.072 0.744 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 380012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 380021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 380022 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 380031 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 380032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 380041 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 380042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 380051 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 381052 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 381061 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 381062 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 381071 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 381072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 381081 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 381082 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 381091 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 381092 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 382101 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 382111 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 382112 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 382121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 382122 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.057 0.388 3.607 0.052 0.328 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.063 0.448 3.073 0.057 0.279 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.069 0.537 3.319 0.063 0.314 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.069 -1.060 8.846 0.059 0.335 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.058 -0.122 3.367 0.048 0.446 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.056 0.461 3.459 0.050 0.253 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.069 0.519 4.137 0.059 0.363 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.068 0.131 3.768 0.059 0.399 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.070 0.450 3.653 0.048 0.551 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.066 1.009 5.408 0.053 0.432 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.059 0.378 3.505 0.055 0.298 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.999 0.070 0.509 3.250 0.054 0.483 13 381071 1754 1976 223 0.999 0.068 0.301 3.677 0.054 0.426 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.083 0.576 4.959 0.069 0.408 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.081 1.118 7.071 0.058 0.483 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.065 0.412 3.255 0.058 0.332 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.999 0.067 0.644 3.727 0.054 0.411 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.066 0.242 3.517 0.055 0.417 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.999 0.094 -3.585 41.605 0.072 0.224 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.070 0.185 3.031 0.055 0.496 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.087 0.371 2.542 0.052 0.712 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.071 0.982 6.712 0.054 0.436 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.069 0.316 3.480 0.052 0.568 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.064 0.480 3.169 0.052 0.465 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.069 0.237 5.672 0.056 0.411 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.009 0.913 7.797 0.006 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.069 0.430 3.562 0.055 0.414 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.006 0.256 1.261 0.006 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.999 0.056 -3.585 2.542 0.048 0.224 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.065 0.272 3.287 0.052 0.330 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.070 0.528 4.548 0.058 0.474 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.094 1.118 41.605 0.072 0.712 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.278 0.123 0.007 -0.290 2.940 -0.064 0.600 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.064 SERIES 382111 AND 382122 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.600 SERIES 380031 AND 381092 223 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.188 0.257 0.265 0.229 0.325 0.418 0.239 0.284 SDEV 0.175 0.178 0.190 0.202 0.218 0.227 0.188 0.177 SERR 0.026 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.781 0.875 0.893 0.876 0.918 0.943 0.878 0.901 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.998 0.039 0.460 3.586 0.037 0.301 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.174 0.092 -0.037 85 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.46 1.00 1.08 1.54 11.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.300 0.150 0.146 0.186 0.216 0.173 0.130 0.157 0.160 0.126 PACF 0.300 0.067 0.093 0.125 0.131 0.063 0.030 0.072 0.052 0.012 95% C.L. 0.121 0.132 0.134 0.137 0.140 0.145 0.148 0.150 0.152 0.155 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.094 0.300 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.361 0.239 0.173 0.258 0.261 0.222 0.199 0.156 0.153 0.185 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.361 2 0.316 0.124 3 0.309 0.105 0.061 4 0.297 0.086 0.004 0.185 5 0.274 0.085 -0.006 0.148 0.124 6 0.267 0.076 -0.006 0.143 0.107 0.062 7 0.263 0.069 -0.014 0.143 0.102 0.045 0.061 8 0.263 0.069 -0.015 0.142 0.102 0.045 0.059 0.006 9 0.263 0.068 -0.016 0.140 0.100 0.045 0.058 0.002 0.018 10 0.261 0.068 -0.020 0.137 0.093 0.036 0.059 -0.003 0.001 0.065 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1388.69 1352.82 1350.59 1351.57 1344.18 1342.00 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1342.97 1343.97 1345.96 1347.87 1348.74 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.316 0.124 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 14.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.81 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.316 0.224 0.110 0.063 0.034 0.018 0.010 0.005 0.003 0.0016 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 380011 2 0.151 0.259 0.215 2 380012 2 0.094 0.259 0.082 3 380021 2 0.158 0.265 0.159 4 380022 2 0.152 0.323 0.106 5 380031 2 0.244 0.364 0.186 6 380032 2 0.097 0.213 0.174 7 380041 2 0.162 0.322 0.135 8 380042 2 0.167 0.375 0.070 9 380051 2 0.383 0.387 0.299 10 381052 2 0.198 0.408 0.056 11 381061 2 0.099 0.269 0.099 12 381062 2 0.264 0.395 0.188 13 381071 2 0.256 0.321 0.249 14 381072 2 0.202 0.342 0.162 15 381081 2 0.279 0.382 0.210 16 381082 2 0.141 0.291 0.132 17 381091 2 0.199 0.339 0.176 18 381092 2 0.200 0.348 0.170 19 382101 2 0.084 0.184 0.181 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 382102 2 0.317 0.346 0.303 21 382111 2 0.522 0.622 0.130 22 382112 2 0.257 0.336 0.231 23 382121 2 0.381 0.496 0.134 24 382122 2 0.237 0.394 0.152 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.218 0.343 0.167 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.105 0.090 0.064 MEDIAN 2 0.200 0.340 0.166 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.109 0.105 0.068 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.084 0.184 0.056 LOWER HINGE 2 0.152 0.280 0.131 UPPER HINGE 2 0.260 0.385 0.199 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.522 0.622 0.303 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.052 0.213 3.165 0.059 -0.005 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.060 0.405 3.230 0.065 -0.010 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.065 0.488 3.658 0.073 -0.031 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.064 -0.722 7.599 0.069 -0.037 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.051 -0.156 3.334 0.058 -0.028 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.053 0.513 3.616 0.057 -0.010 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.063 0.540 4.418 0.070 -0.021 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.062 0.088 3.535 0.070 -0.006 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.056 0.884 6.047 0.059 -0.048 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.060 0.984 6.565 0.064 -0.006 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.056 0.451 3.792 0.064 -0.004 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.060 0.467 3.427 0.067 -0.003 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.059 0.534 5.710 0.065 -0.044 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.075 0.683 5.777 0.082 -0.021 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.070 1.385 9.377 0.071 -0.026 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.061 0.186 3.213 0.069 -0.019 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.060 0.842 4.584 0.065 -0.013 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.059 0.355 3.848 0.065 -0.007 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.091 -4.763 57.789 0.079 -0.010 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.058 0.198 3.114 0.066 -0.016 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.060 0.206 3.022 0.067 -0.013 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.062 1.248 10.134 0.065 -0.040 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.056 0.118 3.054 0.066 -0.026 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.056 0.275 3.390 0.062 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.061 0.226 6.892 0.066 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.008 1.151 11.025 0.006 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.060 0.428 3.725 0.066 -0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.006 0.420 2.630 0.006 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.051 -4.763 3.022 0.057 -0.048 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.056 0.192 3.282 0.064 -0.027 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.063 0.612 5.912 0.069 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.091 1.385 57.789 0.082 -0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.308 0.103 0.006 -0.114 2.758 0.027 0.596 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.027 SERIES 381052 AND 382101 246 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.596 SERIES 381091 AND 381092 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.273 0.319 0.320 0.314 0.360 0.376 0.239 0.302 SDEV 0.185 0.155 0.151 0.147 0.132 0.157 0.137 0.148 SERR 0.028 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.852 0.905 0.916 0.916 0.929 0.933 0.879 0.909 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.999 0.037 0.362 3.648 0.044 -0.068 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.066 -0.019 98 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.43 1.00 1.07 1.49 17.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 -0.184 -0.027 0.062 0.103 0.029 0.003 0.041 0.075 0.039 PACF -0.067 -0.190 -0.057 0.020 0.099 0.065 0.055 0.072 0.095 0.067 95% C.L. 0.121 0.122 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.044 -0.080 -0.190 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 0.001 -0.035 0.044 0.116 0.063 0.046 0.066 0.089 0.068 PACF -0.011 0.000 -0.035 0.044 0.118 0.065 0.052 0.076 0.090 0.061 95% C.L. 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.011 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.999 0.040 0.384 3.639 0.036 0.360 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.359 0.254 0.139 0.167 0.207 0.177 0.165 0.171 0.175 0.145 PACF 0.359 0.144 0.011 0.100 0.128 0.046 0.049 0.073 0.060 0.013 95% C.L. 0.121 0.136 0.143 0.145 0.148 0.152 0.155 0.158 0.160 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.147 0.307 0.145 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES