RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit015w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit015w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 380 1 Inverey WIDTH_RING PISY - 380 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 500 5700-335 1706 1976 - 380 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 380021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 380022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1915 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 380041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 381091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 0.805 0.457 1.572 7.209 0.182 0.867 2 380012 1731 1976 246 0.866 0.424 1.146 4.210 0.188 0.872 3 380021 1706 1976 271 0.988 0.536 0.644 2.345 0.171 0.924 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.058 0.708 1.037 4.080 0.158 0.931 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.167 0.618 2.275 10.176 0.166 0.896 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.440 0.459 1.027 4.037 0.147 0.833 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.292 1.124 1.677 5.556 0.227 0.915 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.985 0.922 0.566 2.418 0.160 0.875 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.120 0.584 1.394 4.810 0.198 0.875 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.042 0.775 2.219 8.222 0.202 0.930 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.103 0.449 0.426 3.226 0.200 0.821 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.169 0.479 0.474 3.294 0.185 0.819 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.232 0.647 1.318 5.604 0.206 0.825 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.226 0.769 0.722 2.571 0.182 0.922 15 381081 1731 1975 245 0.911 0.528 1.038 3.899 0.220 0.806 16 381082 1721 1976 256 0.925 0.640 1.810 7.210 0.234 0.883 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.934 0.710 1.951 6.477 0.191 0.922 18 381092 1724 1976 253 0.975 0.733 1.764 5.919 0.196 0.936 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.964 0.637 1.262 4.472 0.205 0.900 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 0.974 0.650 1.788 6.358 0.213 0.895 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.608 0.648 0.770 3.554 0.183 0.818 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.149 0.460 1.501 7.135 0.201 0.772 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.190 0.532 0.532 2.855 0.215 0.841 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.318 0.717 0.746 2.896 0.202 0.848 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1706 TO 1976 271 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 220 1.143 0.634 1.236 4.939 0.193 0.872 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.260 0.164 0.562 2.061 0.022 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.111 0.639 1.204 4.341 0.197 0.875 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.260 0.210 0.987 3.158 0.024 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.805 0.424 0.426 2.345 0.147 0.772 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.969 0.504 0.734 3.260 0.182 0.829 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 246 1.229 0.714 1.720 6.418 0.205 0.918 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 1.985 1.124 2.275 10.176 0.234 0.936 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.550 0.210 0.013 -0.764 2.827 -0.055 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.055 SERIES 380022 AND 382121 193 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 381091 AND 381092 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.523 0.637 0.398 0.319 0.340 0.323 0.230 0.193 SDEV 0.188 0.200 0.239 0.293 0.253 0.296 0.266 0.303 SERR 0.028 0.018 0.016 0.018 0.016 0.019 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.944 0.973 0.939 0.918 0.923 0.916 0.873 0.846 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 1.185 0.572 0.919 3.017 0.130 0.938 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.639 0.233 0.184 118 153 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.03 1.00 1.09 2.12 3.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 225. 55. 111. 198. 253. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.934 0.887 0.861 0.827 0.799 0.795 0.798 0.791 0.789 0.774 PACF 0.934 0.115 0.156 -0.018 0.047 0.185 0.140 0.019 0.068 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.121 0.201 0.252 0.293 0.325 0.353 0.379 0.403 0.425 0.446 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.885 0.777 0.006 0.173 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 1 1.49129653 0.01171742 0.00000000 0.34120792 2 380012 1 1.44875312 0.02766494 0.00000000 0.65626919 3 380021 1 1.83215070 0.00807232 0.00000000 0.20199609 4 380022 1 2.41269851 0.01659566 0.00000000 0.46334907 5 380031 1 1.76754296 0.01149810 0.00000000 0.53463775 6 380032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00571542 1.97191250 7 380041 1 3.93510652 0.01919010 0.00000000 0.28914806 8 380042 1 3.43843460 0.01431075 0.00000000 0.27508295 9 380051 1 2.02215624 0.02015056 0.00000000 0.69715858 10 381052 1 3.14262199 0.03230578 0.00000000 0.65269196 11 381061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00594886 1.60535717 12 381062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00535839 1.77993178 13 381071 1 1.53140604 0.01597261 0.00000000 0.81780982 14 381072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00959472 2.20005178 15 381081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00539834 1.57530177 16 381082 1 2.98426771 0.06868758 0.00000000 0.76112771 17 381091 1 2.98579025 0.03229987 0.00000000 0.54710668 18 381092 1 2.94685602 0.02664020 0.00000000 0.54410708 19 382101 1 2.11261988 0.01296779 0.00000000 0.36516199 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 1 1.89084423 0.02531170 0.00000000 0.63111907 21 382111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00404043 1.98178363 22 382112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00162718 1.31869423 23 382121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020931 1.20994008 24 382122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00896076 2.19130325 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 0.996 0.302 0.285 2.629 0.181 0.711 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.331 0.136 2.275 0.188 0.745 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.006 0.366 0.854 4.163 0.166 0.826 4 380022 1720 1976 257 0.997 0.523 1.012 4.231 0.156 0.921 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.292 1.434 7.492 0.165 0.752 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.222 0.679 3.383 0.147 0.654 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.014 0.538 0.708 4.638 0.403 0.844 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.001 0.298 1.346 5.832 0.157 0.770 9 380051 1744 1976 233 0.999 0.286 0.729 3.305 0.196 0.614 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.002 0.374 0.558 3.232 0.201 0.768 11 381061 1809 1976 168 0.993 0.310 0.453 3.669 0.198 0.675 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.998 0.284 0.131 2.943 0.184 0.670 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.414 0.721 3.037 0.205 0.805 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.069 0.568 0.774 3.177 0.180 0.897 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.016 0.406 0.935 3.661 0.219 0.699 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.562 1.568 6.994 0.233 0.862 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.001 0.407 1.335 6.113 0.186 0.826 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.001 0.377 0.413 3.093 0.195 0.780 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.995 0.364 0.662 3.269 0.203 0.762 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 0.998 0.450 1.082 3.806 0.212 0.826 21 382111 1793 1976 184 0.998 0.370 0.546 2.885 0.182 0.792 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.384 1.334 6.524 0.200 0.761 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.447 0.534 2.880 0.214 0.837 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.004 0.396 0.847 3.587 0.201 0.776 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.004 0.386 0.795 4.034 0.199 0.774 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.015 0.092 0.400 1.462 0.048 0.077 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.375 0.725 3.485 0.196 0.773 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.003 0.125 0.507 1.370 0.023 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.993 0.222 0.131 2.275 0.147 0.614 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.998 0.306 0.540 3.065 0.181 0.728 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.002 0.430 1.047 4.435 0.204 0.826 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.069 0.568 1.568 7.492 0.403 0.921 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 380012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 380021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 380022 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 380031 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 380032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 380041 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 380042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 380051 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 381052 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 381061 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 381062 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 381071 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 381072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 381081 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 381082 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 381091 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 381092 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 382101 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 382111 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 382112 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 382121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 382122 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 0.996 0.255 0.203 2.848 0.181 0.605 2 380012 1731 1976 246 0.998 0.328 0.258 2.362 0.187 0.742 3 380021 1706 1976 271 0.994 0.314 0.483 2.756 0.166 0.775 4 380022 1720 1976 257 0.967 0.432 1.187 5.128 0.156 0.897 5 380031 1754 1976 223 0.999 0.286 1.450 7.796 0.165 0.744 6 380032 1792 1976 185 0.998 0.212 0.670 3.370 0.147 0.621 7 380041 1754 1976 223 0.982 0.479 0.394 4.028 0.395 0.822 8 380042 1738 1848 111 0.996 0.270 1.019 4.978 0.157 0.731 9 380051 1744 1976 233 0.998 0.247 0.499 3.191 0.196 0.488 10 381052 1731 1976 246 0.994 0.350 0.582 3.606 0.201 0.737 11 381061 1809 1976 168 0.996 0.287 0.799 4.616 0.198 0.610 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.997 0.273 0.206 3.208 0.184 0.640 13 381071 1754 1976 223 0.987 0.361 0.569 2.719 0.205 0.745 14 381072 1775 1976 202 0.974 0.354 0.460 3.246 0.180 0.819 15 381081 1731 1975 245 0.996 0.378 1.007 3.980 0.219 0.684 16 381082 1721 1976 256 0.998 0.411 1.108 5.113 0.234 0.688 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.995 0.362 0.941 4.563 0.186 0.787 18 381092 1724 1976 253 0.997 0.364 0.467 3.582 0.195 0.751 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.994 0.337 0.548 3.177 0.203 0.717 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 0.990 0.389 0.701 2.968 0.211 0.775 21 382111 1793 1976 184 0.997 0.339 0.499 2.867 0.182 0.740 22 382112 1769 1976 208 0.996 0.369 1.304 6.564 0.199 0.748 23 382121 1784 1976 193 0.995 0.428 0.570 2.888 0.214 0.822 24 382122 1783 1976 194 0.996 0.382 0.858 3.619 0.201 0.760 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 0.993 0.342 0.699 3.882 0.198 0.727 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.008 0.065 0.343 1.302 0.047 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 0.996 0.352 0.576 3.476 0.196 0.743 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.004 0.094 0.499 1.662 0.023 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.967 0.212 0.203 2.362 0.147 0.488 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.994 0.287 0.475 2.928 0.181 0.686 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 0.997 0.380 0.974 4.590 0.204 0.775 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.999 0.479 1.450 7.796 0.395 0.897 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.308 0.159 0.010 -0.088 3.199 -0.159 0.769 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.159 SERIES 380022 AND 381062 227 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.769 SERIES 380042 AND 382112 80 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.443 0.510 0.499 0.304 0.252 0.284 0.295 0.180 SDEV 0.145 0.216 0.237 0.295 0.257 0.266 0.252 0.255 SERR 0.022 0.020 0.016 0.019 0.016 0.017 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.924 0.955 0.959 0.912 0.887 0.901 0.906 0.835 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.983 0.192 0.321 3.568 0.122 0.702 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.378 0.197 0.063 83 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.55 1.00 1.07 1.62 7.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.700 0.472 0.348 0.261 0.206 0.203 0.187 0.163 0.173 0.163 PACF 0.700 -0.034 0.059 0.007 0.025 0.082 0.008 0.007 0.072 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.121 0.171 0.189 0.198 0.203 0.206 0.209 0.212 0.214 0.216 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.491 0.700 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.722 0.508 0.396 0.327 0.268 0.254 0.229 0.173 0.153 0.147 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.722 2 0.741 -0.027 3 0.743 -0.088 0.082 4 0.740 -0.084 0.053 0.039 5 0.740 -0.085 0.054 0.033 0.008 6 0.739 -0.087 0.049 0.040 -0.054 0.083 7 0.739 -0.088 0.049 0.040 -0.054 0.084 -0.001 8 0.739 -0.084 0.047 0.042 -0.052 0.080 0.033 -0.045 9 0.741 -0.085 0.043 0.044 -0.054 0.078 0.037 -0.082 0.049 10 0.740 -0.084 0.042 0.043 -0.053 0.077 0.036 -0.080 0.037 0.016 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2294.32 2097.08 2098.89 2099.05 2100.65 2102.63 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2102.74 2104.74 2106.18 2107.52 2109.45 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.722 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 52.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 208.59 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.722 0.521 0.376 0.271 0.196 0.141 0.102 0.073 0.053 0.0382 0.028 0.020 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0015 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 380011 1 0.377 0.611 2 380012 1 0.555 0.744 3 380021 1 0.603 0.776 4 380022 1 0.811 0.899 5 380031 1 0.562 0.745 6 380032 1 0.392 0.622 7 380041 1 0.677 0.822 8 380042 1 0.537 0.733 9 380051 1 0.241 0.489 10 381052 1 0.552 0.741 11 381061 1 0.396 0.613 12 381062 1 0.410 0.640 13 381071 1 0.580 0.761 14 381072 1 0.676 0.822 15 381081 1 0.472 0.687 16 381082 1 0.512 0.708 17 381091 1 0.629 0.790 18 381092 1 0.597 0.770 19 382101 1 0.519 0.719 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 382102 1 0.611 0.777 21 382111 1 0.567 0.753 22 382112 1 0.578 0.758 23 382121 1 0.684 0.824 24 382122 1 0.607 0.766 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.548 0.732 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.087 MEDIAN 1 0.564 0.749 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.117 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.241 0.489 LOWER HINGE 1 0.492 0.697 UPPER HINGE 1 0.609 0.776 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.811 0.899 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.202 0.170 2.784 0.240 -0.051 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.219 0.024 2.739 0.248 -0.047 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.198 0.038 5.013 0.221 -0.043 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.189 0.459 4.060 0.214 -0.113 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.191 0.577 4.596 0.200 0.097 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.166 0.470 3.807 0.195 -0.060 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.273 0.680 4.258 0.286 0.011 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.184 0.453 4.393 0.211 0.010 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.215 0.459 3.418 0.238 -0.023 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.234 0.264 3.333 0.265 -0.060 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.227 0.852 4.732 0.228 0.109 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.210 0.304 3.349 0.233 -0.029 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.232 0.195 3.109 0.262 0.029 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.202 0.349 3.327 0.227 -0.019 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.002 0.269 0.475 5.907 0.271 0.044 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.290 0.681 5.396 0.299 0.122 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.222 0.242 3.668 0.232 0.095 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.232 0.553 4.936 0.251 -0.052 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.234 0.635 4.036 0.259 -0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.245 0.251 3.663 0.292 -0.104 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.222 0.453 3.247 0.235 0.024 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.239 0.907 5.794 0.251 -0.071 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.242 0.879 4.977 0.254 0.096 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.245 0.431 4.425 0.262 0.161 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.224 0.450 4.124 0.245 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.029 0.244 0.908 0.027 0.076 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.224 0.456 4.048 0.244 -0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.039 0.348 1.493 0.035 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.166 0.024 2.739 0.195 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.202 0.258 3.341 0.227 -0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.241 0.606 4.834 0.262 0.069 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.002 0.290 0.907 5.907 0.299 0.161 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.339 0.091 0.005 0.267 3.164 0.080 0.643 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.080 SERIES 380021 AND 382111 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.643 SERIES 381091 AND 381092 253 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.420 0.467 0.413 0.342 0.318 0.341 0.310 0.255 SDEV 0.176 0.141 0.140 0.132 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.166 SERR 0.026 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.918 0.947 0.942 0.925 0.916 0.922 0.912 0.887 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.995 0.134 0.193 3.604 0.152 -0.017 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.231 0.104 0.060 94 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.46 1.00 1.11 1.57 18.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 -0.108 -0.011 0.009 -0.068 0.048 0.076 -0.034 0.007 -0.003 PACF -0.016 -0.108 -0.015 -0.003 -0.072 0.047 0.064 -0.024 0.024 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.108 -0.013 0.008 -0.067 0.048 0.076 -0.033 0.007 -0.003 PACF -0.002 -0.108 -0.013 -0.004 -0.071 0.049 0.062 -0.025 0.024 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.994 0.182 0.331 3.530 0.119 0.679 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.677 0.429 0.308 0.230 0.169 0.178 0.171 0.126 0.120 0.118 PACF 0.677 -0.054 0.072 0.009 0.004 0.102 0.006 -0.030 0.054 0.011 95% C.L. 0.121 0.168 0.184 0.191 0.195 0.197 0.200 0.202 0.203 0.204 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.460 0.677 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.35 MINUTES