RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit015x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit015x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 380 1 Inverey DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 380 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 500 5700-335 1706 1976 - 380 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 380021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 20 IN 1 GAPS / 1880 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 380022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1915 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 380041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 1 GAPS / 1874 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 381091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 1 GAPS / 1881 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 0.906 0.106 -0.808 3.430 0.082 0.632 2 380012 1731 1976 246 0.927 0.099 -0.804 3.491 0.076 0.625 3 380021 1706 1976 271 0.872 0.080 -0.530 3.220 0.078 0.429 4 380022 1720 1976 257 0.838 0.086 -0.603 2.911 0.079 0.536 5 380031 1754 1976 223 0.742 0.059 -0.024 2.564 0.083 0.186 6 380032 1792 1976 185 0.733 0.056 0.328 3.343 0.065 0.420 7 380041 1754 1976 223 0.855 0.092 -0.239 2.904 0.083 0.565 8 380042 1738 1848 111 0.735 0.075 0.129 2.681 0.093 0.397 9 380051 1744 1976 233 0.847 0.086 -0.212 2.611 0.069 0.645 10 381052 1731 1976 246 0.800 0.068 -0.001 3.463 0.076 0.367 11 381061 1809 1976 168 0.784 0.071 0.129 2.616 0.096 0.173 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.772 0.086 -0.231 2.729 0.099 0.379 13 381071 1754 1976 223 0.654 0.077 0.198 2.961 0.108 0.334 14 381072 1775 1976 202 0.661 0.111 0.026 2.300 0.107 0.684 15 381081 1731 1975 245 0.804 0.090 0.164 3.039 0.092 0.466 16 381082 1721 1976 256 0.831 0.091 -0.278 2.851 0.091 0.461 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.858 0.101 -0.479 2.788 0.086 0.568 18 381092 1724 1976 253 0.937 0.090 -0.308 3.053 0.077 0.490 19 382101 1716 1976 261 0.738 0.083 0.045 2.913 0.099 0.431 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 0.749 0.068 0.223 3.061 0.079 0.350 21 382111 1793 1976 184 0.781 0.069 -0.159 2.550 0.084 0.345 22 382112 1769 1976 208 0.689 0.075 0.161 3.177 0.102 0.309 23 382121 1784 1976 193 0.755 0.087 -0.535 3.554 0.098 0.454 24 382122 1783 1976 194 0.766 0.095 -0.449 3.044 0.101 0.467 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1706 TO 1976 271 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 220 0.793 0.083 -0.177 2.969 0.088 0.446 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.077 0.014 0.333 0.335 0.012 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 0.782 0.086 -0.186 2.937 0.085 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 48 0.111 0.019 0.593 0.493 0.020 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.654 0.056 -0.808 2.300 0.065 0.173 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.740 0.073 -0.464 2.705 0.078 0.358 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 246 0.851 0.091 0.129 3.199 0.098 0.550 MAXIMUM VALUE 261 0.937 0.111 0.328 3.554 0.108 0.684 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.440 0.160 0.010 -0.873 4.625 -0.223 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.223 SERIES 380011 AND 380032 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 380051 AND 381072 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.483 0.592 0.589 0.536 0.548 0.492 0.381 0.397 SDEV 0.138 0.123 0.131 0.130 0.147 0.148 0.180 0.187 SERR 0.021 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.935 0.967 0.971 0.965 0.966 0.957 0.934 0.938 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 0.809 0.066 0.154 2.835 0.064 0.527 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.128 -0.048 0.138 30 241 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.06 0.14 1.01 1.02 1.16 1.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 225. 55. 111. 198. 253. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.525 0.482 0.407 0.472 0.461 0.485 0.429 0.394 0.312 0.328 PACF 0.525 0.285 0.115 0.237 0.155 0.161 0.055 0.010 -0.090 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.121 0.151 0.173 0.186 0.203 0.218 0.233 0.245 0.254 0.259 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.416 0.252 0.147 0.004 0.157 0.110 0.171 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089248 1.02235317 2 380012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059010 0.99995023 3 380021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00057421 0.94132179 4 380022 1 0.19333179 0.00461832 0.00000000 0.71946436 5 380031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025912 0.77068114 6 380032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053061 0.68384254 7 380041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001600 0.84933156 8 380042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097771 0.78961670 9 380051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084866 0.94620359 10 381052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025815 0.83208525 11 381061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018685 0.76825845 12 381062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004631 0.77712953 13 381071 1 0.08355419 0.05943491 0.00000000 0.64755863 14 381072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127717 0.79057336 15 381081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030268 0.84094381 16 381082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032616 0.87265348 17 381091 1 0.28957465 0.00341407 0.00000000 0.65651500 18 381092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036498 0.98358554 19 382101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046705 0.79953641 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011716 0.76180071 21 382111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002790 0.77812546 22 382112 1 0.09238555 0.02222817 0.00000000 0.66932845 23 382121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045407 0.79917425 24 382122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00084742 0.84839702 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.093 -0.363 3.319 0.081 0.386 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.099 -0.704 3.810 0.076 0.548 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.082 -0.282 3.046 0.076 0.303 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.097 -0.351 2.851 0.078 0.475 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.076 0.065 2.576 0.083 0.110 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.065 -0.092 3.058 0.065 0.230 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.106 -0.170 2.931 0.083 0.544 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.093 0.259 3.017 0.092 0.246 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.077 0.229 2.960 0.068 0.343 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.082 0.116 3.391 0.076 0.314 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.090 0.081 2.635 0.095 0.161 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.111 -0.227 2.734 0.099 0.376 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.116 0.284 3.149 0.108 0.311 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.123 0.128 2.700 0.106 0.379 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.109 0.144 3.002 0.092 0.426 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.105 -0.271 3.062 0.090 0.408 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.112 -0.265 2.743 0.086 0.507 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.092 -0.200 3.275 0.077 0.427 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.102 0.139 2.965 0.099 0.300 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.091 0.245 3.082 0.079 0.340 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.088 -0.152 2.559 0.083 0.343 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.103 0.101 3.122 0.101 0.233 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.111 -0.274 3.559 0.097 0.402 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.109 0.101 3.078 0.101 0.281 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.097 -0.061 3.026 0.087 0.350 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.014 0.253 0.303 0.012 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.098 -0.014 3.032 0.085 0.343 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.020 0.401 0.339 0.020 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.065 -0.704 2.559 0.065 0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.089 -0.268 2.797 0.078 0.290 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.109 0.133 3.136 0.098 0.417 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.123 0.284 3.810 0.108 0.548 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 380011 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 380012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 380021 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 380022 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 380031 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 380032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 380041 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 380042 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 380051 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 381052 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 381061 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 381062 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 381071 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 381072 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 381081 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 381082 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 381091 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 381092 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 382101 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 382102 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 382111 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 382112 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 382121 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 382122 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.081 -0.375 3.329 0.081 0.180 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.097 -0.626 3.654 0.076 0.533 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.078 -0.314 3.275 0.076 0.226 4 380022 1720 1976 257 0.999 0.088 -0.081 2.947 0.078 0.362 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.075 0.084 2.572 0.083 0.090 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.059 -0.164 2.996 0.065 0.089 7 380041 1754 1976 223 0.999 0.085 -0.056 2.781 0.083 0.283 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.084 0.232 3.213 0.092 0.084 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.073 0.248 3.405 0.068 0.265 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.076 -0.021 3.469 0.076 0.200 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.085 0.003 2.482 0.095 0.061 12 381062 1750 1976 227 0.999 0.100 -0.412 2.789 0.099 0.214 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.113 0.257 3.027 0.108 0.267 14 381072 1775 1976 202 0.999 0.109 0.074 2.937 0.106 0.190 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.094 -0.032 3.306 0.092 0.243 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.099 -0.108 2.823 0.091 0.337 17 381091 1724 1976 253 0.999 0.103 -0.329 2.973 0.086 0.422 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.083 -0.531 3.869 0.077 0.290 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.095 0.017 2.841 0.099 0.194 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.084 0.098 3.019 0.079 0.236 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.085 -0.136 2.620 0.083 0.290 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.101 0.051 2.925 0.101 0.207 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.104 -0.045 3.868 0.097 0.304 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.097 0.330 3.912 0.101 0.076 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.089 -0.076 3.126 0.087 0.235 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.013 0.250 0.409 0.012 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.087 -0.039 3.007 0.085 0.231 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.017 0.318 0.535 0.020 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.999 0.059 -0.626 2.482 0.065 0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.082 -0.239 2.832 0.078 0.185 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.099 0.079 3.367 0.098 0.290 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.113 0.330 3.912 0.108 0.533 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.480 0.101 0.006 0.260 3.189 0.179 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.179 SERIES 380032 AND 381082 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 381071 AND 381072 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.488 0.611 0.603 0.559 0.540 0.475 0.428 0.417 SDEV 0.134 0.103 0.128 0.121 0.130 0.142 0.163 0.170 SERR 0.020 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.936 0.969 0.972 0.968 0.965 0.954 0.945 0.943 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.063 -0.024 3.012 0.065 0.149 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.023 0.008 0.054 66 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.32 1.00 1.05 1.37 3.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.161 0.015 0.141 0.126 0.182 0.093 0.080 -0.063 -0.001 PACF 0.148 0.143 -0.028 0.125 0.100 0.124 0.034 0.018 -0.115 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.121 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.044 0.128 0.146 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.133 0.165 0.011 0.150 0.154 0.213 0.125 0.090 -0.043 0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.133 2 0.113 0.150 3 0.118 0.154 -0.029 4 0.121 0.133 -0.044 0.133 5 0.104 0.139 -0.062 0.117 0.131 6 0.084 0.121 -0.053 0.096 0.116 0.151 7 0.075 0.114 -0.059 0.099 0.108 0.145 0.062 8 0.074 0.112 -0.061 0.097 0.109 0.143 0.061 0.018 9 0.076 0.118 -0.045 0.109 0.120 0.137 0.073 0.026 -0.107 10 0.071 0.119 -0.042 0.114 0.124 0.141 0.071 0.031 -0.104 -0.039 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1669.34 1666.49 1662.30 1664.07 1661.26 1658.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1654.32 1655.27 1657.18 1656.06 1657.65 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.113 0.150 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.16 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.113 0.163 0.035 0.029 0.009 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 380011 2 0.048 0.158 0.123 2 380012 2 0.362 0.380 0.287 3 380021 2 0.135 0.172 0.242 4 380022 2 0.253 0.241 0.342 5 380031 2 0.019 0.082 0.098 6 380032 2 0.022 0.079 0.116 7 380041 2 0.130 0.224 0.218 8 380042 2 0.008 0.086 -0.030 9 380051 2 0.077 0.287 -0.054 10 381052 2 0.055 0.177 0.122 11 381061 2 0.004 0.062 0.000 12 381062 2 0.100 0.165 0.233 13 381071 2 0.111 0.212 0.206 14 381072 2 0.077 0.154 0.195 15 381081 2 0.085 0.203 0.165 16 381082 2 0.120 0.324 0.052 17 381091 2 0.190 0.374 0.116 18 381092 2 0.130 0.234 0.209 19 382101 2 0.044 0.178 0.083 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 382102 2 0.095 0.188 0.203 21 382111 2 0.114 0.241 0.174 22 382112 2 0.067 0.180 0.147 23 382121 2 0.146 0.259 0.178 24 382122 2 0.029 0.067 0.148 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.101 0.197 0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.081 0.088 0.095 MEDIAN 2 0.090 0.184 0.156 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.084 0.085 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.004 0.062 -0.054 LOWER HINGE 2 0.046 0.156 0.107 UPPER HINGE 2 0.130 0.241 0.208 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.362 0.380 0.342 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 380011 1717 1976 260 1.000 0.079 -0.304 3.787 0.088 -0.003 2 380012 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.079 -0.372 2.978 0.091 -0.049 3 380021 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.074 -0.252 3.529 0.083 -0.043 4 380022 1720 1976 257 1.000 0.077 0.172 3.228 0.088 -0.057 5 380031 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.074 0.084 2.640 0.086 -0.002 6 380032 1792 1976 185 1.000 0.059 -0.131 2.918 0.067 -0.001 7 380041 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.080 -0.022 2.946 0.091 -0.017 8 380042 1738 1848 111 1.000 0.084 0.158 3.097 0.096 0.000 9 380051 1744 1976 233 1.000 0.070 0.083 3.240 0.078 0.006 10 381052 1731 1976 246 1.000 0.074 -0.154 3.691 0.083 0.002 11 381061 1809 1976 168 1.000 0.084 0.003 2.500 0.098 0.000 12 381062 1750 1976 227 1.000 0.095 -0.344 3.473 0.107 -0.009 13 381071 1754 1976 223 1.000 0.106 0.335 3.082 0.119 -0.004 14 381072 1775 1976 202 1.000 0.104 0.160 3.128 0.113 0.013 15 381081 1731 1975 245 1.000 0.090 0.008 3.234 0.101 -0.003 16 381082 1721 1976 256 1.000 0.093 -0.034 2.574 0.104 -0.003 17 381091 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.093 -0.167 3.203 0.103 0.002 18 381092 1724 1976 253 1.000 0.078 -0.485 3.750 0.086 -0.007 19 382101 1716 1976 261 1.000 0.093 -0.095 2.767 0.108 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 382102 1763 1976 214 1.000 0.080 -0.139 3.207 0.087 0.004 21 382111 1793 1976 184 1.000 0.080 -0.174 2.918 0.093 -0.004 22 382112 1769 1976 208 1.000 0.098 0.084 2.873 0.108 0.010 23 382121 1784 1976 193 1.000 0.097 -0.076 3.453 0.111 -0.013 24 382122 1783 1976 194 1.000 0.096 0.264 3.790 0.104 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 222 1.000 0.085 -0.058 3.167 0.096 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 37 0.000 0.012 0.207 0.376 0.013 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 225 1.000 0.082 -0.055 3.166 0.094 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 55 0.000 0.017 0.254 0.545 0.019 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.059 -0.485 2.500 0.067 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 1.000 0.077 -0.171 2.918 0.087 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 253 1.000 0.094 0.084 3.463 0.106 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.106 0.335 3.790 0.119 0.013 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.510 0.099 0.006 0.168 2.926 0.244 0.772 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.244 SERIES 380032 AND 381082 185 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.772 SERIES 381071 AND 381072 202 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 45. 120. 210. 253. 253. 253. 253. 253. RBAR 0.535 0.622 0.605 0.576 0.583 0.525 0.454 0.446 SDEV 0.145 0.112 0.135 0.119 0.109 0.115 0.141 0.162 SERR 0.022 0.010 0.009 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.946 0.971 0.973 0.970 0.970 0.962 0.950 0.949 NSS 15.3 20.2 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 1.001 0.061 -0.008 3.132 0.071 -0.067 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.023 0.033 72 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.39 1.00 1.08 1.47 4.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.067 -0.049 -0.084 0.067 0.067 0.123 0.048 0.048 -0.100 -0.017 PACF -0.067 -0.054 -0.092 0.052 0.067 0.135 0.088 0.085 -0.072 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.004 -0.085 0.070 0.080 0.139 0.059 0.051 -0.094 -0.015 PACF -0.006 -0.004 -0.085 0.070 0.080 0.135 0.077 0.066 -0.082 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.128 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.007 -0.006 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1976 271 1.000 0.062 -0.008 3.028 0.065 0.115 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.114 0.165 -0.020 0.121 0.109 0.174 0.084 0.076 -0.063 -0.001 PACF 0.114 0.154 -0.056 0.108 0.103 0.123 0.038 0.023 -0.100 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.121 0.123 0.126 0.126 0.128 0.129 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.041 0.098 0.157 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES