RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit017x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit017x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 568 1 Ballochbuite DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 568 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 381 5657-319 1712 1978 - 568 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 9 568052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1921 1921 / 1956 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 568101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1756 1756 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 568102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 568111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 568112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1907 1920 / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 568012 1747 1862 116 0.715 0.073 -0.203 3.029 0.092 0.416 2 568021 1712 1978 267 0.774 0.094 0.021 2.586 0.098 0.496 3 568022 1737 1978 242 0.838 0.086 0.059 2.856 0.097 0.329 4 568031 1782 1978 197 0.719 0.068 0.023 2.746 0.081 0.428 5 568032 1740 1978 239 0.774 0.075 -0.253 2.614 0.093 0.331 6 568041 1728 1978 251 0.862 0.080 0.019 2.557 0.095 0.139 7 568042 1729 1978 250 0.830 0.085 -0.079 2.634 0.095 0.344 8 568051 1770 1978 209 0.808 0.082 -0.044 2.973 0.098 0.290 9 568052 1798 1978 181 0.773 0.085 0.071 2.539 0.097 0.353 10 568061 1762 1978 217 0.660 0.122 -0.017 2.346 0.127 0.630 11 568062 1724 1978 255 0.718 0.095 -0.053 2.437 0.104 0.528 12 568071 1729 1978 250 0.806 0.084 -0.095 3.130 0.118 0.062 13 568072 1740 1978 239 0.861 0.082 -0.605 3.306 0.090 0.272 14 568081 1855 1978 124 0.698 0.099 -0.216 2.707 0.112 0.539 15 568082 1720 1978 259 0.749 0.090 0.323 3.107 0.109 0.365 16 568091 1780 1948 169 0.810 0.131 0.092 2.128 0.102 0.710 17 568092 1761 1978 218 0.883 0.109 -0.626 2.596 0.089 0.582 18 568101 1732 1978 247 0.830 0.079 -0.074 3.193 0.097 0.164 19 568102 1780 1978 199 0.853 0.089 -0.322 3.281 0.086 0.415 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568111 1769 1978 210 0.763 0.066 0.310 3.425 0.089 0.146 21 568112 1762 1978 217 0.807 0.076 0.046 3.045 0.101 0.145 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1712 TO 1978 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.787 0.088 -0.077 2.821 0.099 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.061 0.016 0.238 0.350 0.011 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 218 0.806 0.085 -0.044 2.746 0.097 0.353 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 52 0.081 0.015 0.249 0.521 0.009 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.660 0.066 -0.626 2.128 0.081 0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.749 0.079 -0.203 2.586 0.092 0.272 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 250 0.830 0.094 0.046 3.107 0.102 0.496 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.883 0.131 0.323 3.425 0.127 0.710 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 209 0.384 0.165 0.011 -0.777 4.006 -0.246 0.758 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.246 SERIES 568062 AND 568091 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.758 SERIES 568021 AND 568022 242 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.52 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. 190. 171. RBAR 0.577 0.601 0.540 0.426 0.501 0.396 0.301 0.462 SDEV 0.130 0.110 0.185 0.232 0.132 0.182 0.225 0.157 SERR 0.019 0.010 0.014 0.018 0.010 0.013 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.953 0.966 0.959 0.937 0.953 0.929 0.896 0.944 NSS 14.8 18.8 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.0 20.0 19.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1978 267 0.790 0.062 -0.323 3.416 0.078 0.206 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.375 0.160 -0.037 72 195 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.26 1.00 1.06 1.32 5.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 218. 51. 116. 199. 250. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.206 0.236 0.089 0.135 0.146 0.264 0.184 0.145 0.024 0.105 PACF 0.206 0.203 0.009 0.078 0.102 0.202 0.076 0.014 -0.077 0.045 95% C.L. 0.122 0.127 0.134 0.135 0.137 0.139 0.146 0.150 0.152 0.152 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.088 0.165 0.214 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 568012 1 0.31606504 0.00331349 0.00000000 0.45338184 2 568021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037010 0.82337642 3 568022 1 0.08320865 0.01331605 0.00000000 0.81289637 4 568031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025806 0.69318295 5 568032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018835 0.79640907 6 568041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001645 0.85944098 7 568042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015528 0.84932721 8 568051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023781 0.78301990 9 568052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059991 0.82658821 10 568061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099575 0.76899773 11 568062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055623 0.64684236 12 568071 1 0.00269000 0.00459278 0.00000000 0.80480403 13 568072 1 0.08753309 0.00561028 0.00000000 0.81323415 14 568081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178763 0.80963022 15 568082 1 0.15791237 0.04815578 0.00000000 0.73694670 16 568091 1 0.57663733 0.00549186 0.00000000 0.43523932 17 568092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103688 0.99629009 18 568101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009557 0.81770992 19 568102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009361 0.86215198 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568111 1 0.08121912 0.01281886 0.00000000 0.73466015 21 568112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029080 0.77054775 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 568012 1747 1862 116 1.000 0.093 -0.193 3.238 0.091 0.309 2 568021 1712 1978 267 1.000 0.116 -0.146 2.790 0.098 0.432 3 568022 1737 1978 242 1.000 0.100 0.167 3.028 0.096 0.283 4 568031 1782 1978 197 1.000 0.093 0.004 2.857 0.080 0.397 5 568032 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.095 -0.209 2.683 0.092 0.309 6 568041 1728 1978 251 1.000 0.093 0.028 2.561 0.095 0.138 7 568042 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.102 -0.081 2.577 0.095 0.330 8 568051 1770 1978 209 1.000 0.100 0.082 3.027 0.098 0.270 9 568052 1798 1978 181 1.000 0.102 0.047 2.581 0.097 0.262 10 568061 1762 1978 217 0.999 0.158 0.190 2.530 0.126 0.511 11 568062 1724 1978 255 1.000 0.119 0.139 3.070 0.104 0.421 12 568071 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.105 -0.094 3.131 0.117 0.062 13 568072 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.093 -0.540 3.372 0.090 0.239 14 568081 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.109 0.269 3.136 0.111 0.230 15 568082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.114 0.030 2.795 0.109 0.272 16 568091 1780 1948 169 1.000 0.108 0.077 3.696 0.101 0.331 17 568092 1761 1978 218 1.000 0.101 -0.387 3.124 0.088 0.374 18 568101 1732 1978 247 1.000 0.095 -0.026 3.250 0.096 0.165 19 568102 1780 1978 199 1.000 0.104 -0.323 3.297 0.086 0.411 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568111 1769 1978 210 1.000 0.082 0.278 3.306 0.089 0.054 21 568112 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.094 0.027 2.959 0.100 0.138 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.104 -0.032 3.000 0.098 0.283 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.015 0.211 0.313 0.011 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 218 1.000 0.101 0.027 3.028 0.096 0.283 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.014 0.228 0.448 0.010 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.999 0.082 -0.540 2.530 0.080 0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.094 -0.146 2.790 0.091 0.230 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.108 0.082 3.238 0.101 0.374 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.158 0.278 3.696 0.126 0.511 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 568012 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 568021 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 568022 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 568031 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 568032 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 568041 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 568042 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 568051 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 568052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 568061 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 568062 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 568071 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 568072 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 568081 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 568082 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 568091 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 568092 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 568101 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 568102 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568111 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 568112 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 568012 1747 1862 116 1.000 0.090 -0.249 3.379 0.091 0.249 2 568021 1712 1978 267 0.999 0.099 -0.080 2.733 0.098 0.228 3 568022 1737 1978 242 1.000 0.092 0.072 3.122 0.096 0.164 4 568031 1782 1978 197 0.999 0.082 -0.006 3.049 0.080 0.228 5 568032 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.089 -0.206 2.958 0.092 0.212 6 568041 1728 1978 251 1.000 0.087 -0.059 2.625 0.095 0.045 7 568042 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.095 -0.127 2.633 0.095 0.241 8 568051 1770 1978 209 1.000 0.093 0.000 2.781 0.098 0.161 9 568052 1798 1978 181 1.000 0.094 0.054 2.839 0.097 0.138 10 568061 1762 1978 217 0.999 0.123 0.095 3.132 0.126 0.204 11 568062 1724 1978 255 1.000 0.112 0.182 3.369 0.104 0.355 12 568071 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.102 -0.143 3.203 0.117 0.007 13 568072 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.092 -0.548 3.362 0.090 0.222 14 568081 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.100 0.121 2.852 0.111 0.089 15 568082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.109 0.056 2.940 0.109 0.208 16 568091 1780 1948 169 1.000 0.102 0.067 4.030 0.101 0.264 17 568092 1761 1978 218 1.000 0.096 -0.283 3.551 0.088 0.306 18 568101 1732 1978 247 1.000 0.089 -0.233 3.262 0.096 0.060 19 568102 1780 1978 199 1.000 0.100 -0.222 3.584 0.086 0.362 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568111 1769 1978 210 1.000 0.081 0.277 3.313 0.089 0.049 21 568112 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.089 -0.105 3.073 0.100 0.060 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.096 -0.064 3.133 0.098 0.183 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.010 0.188 0.349 0.011 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 218 1.000 0.094 -0.059 3.122 0.096 0.208 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.011 0.273 0.510 0.010 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 116 0.999 0.081 -0.548 2.625 0.080 0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.089 -0.206 2.852 0.091 0.089 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.100 0.067 3.362 0.101 0.241 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.123 0.277 4.030 0.126 0.362 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 209 0.463 0.101 0.007 -0.065 2.772 0.217 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.217 SERIES 568031 AND 568102 197 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 568021 AND 568022 242 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.52 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. 190. 171. RBAR 0.597 0.618 0.563 0.453 0.500 0.401 0.340 0.473 SDEV 0.093 0.104 0.174 0.192 0.134 0.170 0.183 0.146 SERR 0.014 0.009 0.013 0.015 0.010 0.012 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.957 0.968 0.963 0.943 0.953 0.931 0.911 0.946 NSS 14.8 18.8 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.0 20.0 19.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1978 267 0.997 0.073 -0.110 2.954 0.081 0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.132 0.047 0.019 94 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.40 1.00 1.06 1.46 3.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.058 0.131 -0.058 0.017 0.035 0.164 0.088 0.062 -0.098 0.000 PACF 0.058 0.128 -0.073 0.007 0.052 0.156 0.063 0.019 -0.107 0.006 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.025 0.051 0.130 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.041 0.078 -0.151 0.002 0.005 0.155 0.089 0.041 -0.119 -0.011 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.041 2 -0.038 0.077 3 -0.027 0.071 -0.146 4 -0.029 0.072 -0.146 -0.013 5 -0.028 0.076 -0.148 -0.013 0.028 6 -0.032 0.078 -0.128 -0.023 0.032 0.138 7 -0.046 0.075 -0.125 -0.011 0.024 0.142 0.099 8 -0.049 0.070 -0.126 -0.010 0.028 0.139 0.100 0.033 9 -0.046 0.079 -0.113 -0.008 0.027 0.127 0.107 0.028 -0.095 10 -0.046 0.079 -0.113 -0.008 0.027 0.127 0.107 0.028 -0.095 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1592.59 1594.14 1594.57 1590.82 1592.78 1594.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1591.41 1590.80 1592.51 1592.09 1594.09 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.027 0.071 -0.146 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.95 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.027 0.072 -0.150 0.013 -0.021 0.023 -0.004 0.005 -0.004 0.0010 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 568012 3 0.092 0.240 0.130 -0.150 2 568021 3 0.092 0.178 0.134 0.107 3 568022 3 0.060 0.139 0.183 -0.023 4 568031 3 0.169 0.123 0.328 0.085 5 568032 3 0.077 0.185 0.128 0.002 6 568041 3 0.015 0.046 0.060 -0.062 7 568042 3 0.090 0.198 0.185 -0.007 8 568051 3 0.063 0.162 0.111 -0.172 9 568052 3 0.090 0.125 0.205 -0.066 10 568061 3 0.117 0.157 0.231 0.006 11 568062 3 0.184 0.255 0.238 0.047 12 568071 3 0.040 0.012 0.134 -0.043 13 568072 3 0.084 0.195 0.094 0.043 14 568081 3 0.071 0.102 0.194 -0.155 15 568082 3 0.047 0.199 0.038 0.024 16 568091 3 0.109 0.229 0.206 -0.081 17 568092 3 0.129 0.257 0.153 0.015 18 568101 3 0.028 0.066 0.096 -0.128 19 568102 3 0.216 0.234 0.284 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 568111 3 0.003 0.049 0.003 0.028 21 568112 3 0.039 0.044 0.182 0.029 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.086 0.152 0.158 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.055 0.076 0.079 0.081 MEDIAN 3 0.084 0.162 0.153 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.063 0.098 0.094 0.095 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.003 0.012 0.003 -0.172 LOWER HINGE 3 0.047 0.102 0.111 -0.066 UPPER HINGE 3 0.109 0.199 0.205 0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.216 0.257 0.328 0.107 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 568012 1747 1862 116 1.000 0.085 -0.135 3.506 0.100 -0.002 2 568021 1712 1978 267 1.000 0.094 -0.053 2.890 0.107 -0.011 3 568022 1737 1978 242 1.000 0.089 0.051 3.032 0.102 0.000 4 568031 1782 1978 197 1.000 0.075 0.015 3.222 0.083 -0.002 5 568032 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.086 -0.163 2.930 0.101 -0.001 6 568041 1728 1978 251 1.000 0.087 -0.079 2.617 0.098 -0.004 7 568042 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.091 -0.165 2.739 0.104 0.000 8 568051 1770 1978 209 1.000 0.091 -0.052 2.866 0.102 0.007 9 568052 1798 1978 181 1.000 0.091 0.091 2.745 0.101 0.014 10 568061 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.117 0.103 3.173 0.135 -0.002 11 568062 1724 1978 255 1.000 0.102 0.042 3.274 0.118 0.001 12 568071 1729 1978 250 1.000 0.101 -0.176 3.325 0.116 0.006 13 568072 1740 1978 239 1.000 0.089 -0.512 3.496 0.100 -0.007 14 568081 1855 1978 124 1.000 0.097 0.171 2.586 0.113 0.012 15 568082 1720 1978 259 1.000 0.107 0.148 3.116 0.120 -0.001 16 568091 1780 1948 169 1.000 0.097 -0.137 3.978 0.112 -0.004 17 568092 1761 1978 218 1.000 0.090 -0.513 3.535 0.101 -0.001 18 568101 1732 1978 247 1.000 0.088 -0.274 3.221 0.097 -0.001 19 568102 1780 1978 199 1.000 0.089 -0.458 4.334 0.096 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568111 1769 1978 210 1.000 0.081 0.238 3.314 0.091 0.000 21 568112 1762 1978 217 1.000 0.088 -0.077 3.185 0.101 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.000 0.092 -0.092 3.195 0.105 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 41 0.000 0.009 0.213 0.429 0.011 0.006 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 218 1.000 0.090 -0.077 3.185 0.101 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 51 0.000 0.009 0.216 0.435 0.013 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 116 1.000 0.075 -0.513 2.586 0.083 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 199 1.000 0.088 -0.165 2.890 0.100 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 250 1.000 0.097 0.051 3.325 0.112 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.117 0.238 4.334 0.135 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 209 0.505 0.082 0.006 0.160 2.652 0.329 0.720 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.329 SERIES 568032 AND 568081 124 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.720 SERIES 568071 AND 568072 239 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.52 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 71.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. 190. 171. RBAR 0.619 0.648 0.606 0.499 0.549 0.439 0.369 0.485 SDEV 0.077 0.082 0.120 0.156 0.121 0.141 0.144 0.119 SERR 0.011 0.007 0.009 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.960 0.972 0.968 0.953 0.961 0.940 0.921 0.949 NSS 14.8 18.8 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.0 20.0 19.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1978 267 0.999 0.071 -0.124 3.188 0.085 -0.089 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.096 0.034 0.028 76 191 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.41 1.01 1.06 1.46 7.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.089 -0.035 -0.086 -0.035 0.000 0.130 0.069 0.042 -0.133 -0.011 PACF -0.089 -0.043 -0.094 -0.055 -0.017 0.119 0.088 0.069 -0.097 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.090 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.003 0.008 -0.042 0.011 0.122 0.078 0.046 -0.110 -0.014 PACF -0.005 -0.003 0.008 -0.042 0.010 0.122 0.081 0.047 -0.113 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 -0.005 -0.003 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1712 1978 267 0.999 0.072 -0.117 3.129 0.084 -0.039 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.039 0.071 -0.159 -0.025 -0.017 0.158 0.066 0.056 -0.131 -0.011 PACF -0.039 0.069 -0.155 -0.041 0.002 0.142 0.069 0.039 -0.099 0.003 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES