RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit019x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit019x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 375 1 Franchise Wood DENSITY_MAXIMUM PISY - 375 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 100 5057-141 1843 1976 - 375 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 375061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1868 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 376101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1884 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 375011 1849 1976 128 0.850 0.167 -0.941 3.193 0.088 0.842 2 375012 1843 1976 134 0.899 0.102 -0.902 4.001 0.076 0.638 3 375021 1859 1976 118 1.017 0.046 -0.244 3.087 0.042 0.255 4 375022 1846 1975 130 0.969 0.076 -0.212 2.586 0.051 0.681 5 375031 1852 1976 125 1.011 0.045 -0.612 3.383 0.048 0.159 6 375032 1849 1976 128 0.966 0.076 -0.371 2.479 0.053 0.597 7 375041 1848 1976 129 0.912 0.093 -1.144 3.857 0.076 0.499 8 375042 1864 1976 113 0.833 0.108 -1.002 4.053 0.105 0.486 9 375051 1844 1976 133 0.907 0.088 -0.694 3.508 0.075 0.534 10 375052 1854 1976 123 0.928 0.092 -0.807 3.913 0.061 0.732 11 375061 1844 1976 133 1.003 0.073 -0.684 3.888 0.055 0.572 12 375062 1864 1976 113 0.894 0.145 -0.237 2.193 0.068 0.869 13 376071 1864 1976 113 1.024 0.083 -1.546 6.405 0.051 0.667 14 376072 1861 1976 116 1.030 0.043 -1.635 10.399 0.039 0.178 15 376081 1862 1976 115 0.941 0.081 -0.271 2.581 0.061 0.640 16 376082 1853 1976 124 0.835 0.091 -0.548 3.197 0.103 0.328 17 376091 1846 1976 131 0.945 0.086 -1.449 5.046 0.059 0.639 18 376092 1849 1976 128 0.947 0.085 -2.736 13.021 0.062 0.584 19 376101 1857 1976 120 0.934 0.105 -0.298 2.183 0.059 0.814 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 376102 1848 1976 129 0.913 0.091 -0.632 3.858 0.068 0.611 21 376111 1866 1976 111 0.885 0.093 -0.756 3.525 0.075 0.596 22 376112 1853 1976 124 0.947 0.079 -1.242 5.142 0.061 0.490 23 376121 1848 1976 129 0.900 0.132 -1.198 3.758 0.081 0.742 24 376122 1854 1975 122 0.986 0.095 -1.271 4.250 0.058 0.734 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1843 TO 1976 134 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 124 0.936 0.091 -0.893 4.313 0.066 0.579 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.057 0.028 0.583 2.504 0.017 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 0.937 0.089 -0.782 3.808 0.061 0.604 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.078 0.021 0.760 1.012 0.022 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.833 0.043 -2.736 2.183 0.039 0.159 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 0.900 0.077 -1.220 3.140 0.054 0.494 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 0.977 0.099 -0.460 4.152 0.076 0.707 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.030 0.167 -0.212 13.021 0.105 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.383 0.235 0.014 -0.354 2.646 -0.270 0.833 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.270 SERIES 375011 AND 375032 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.833 SERIES 375061 AND 375062 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.312 0.367 0.346 SDEV 0.202 0.176 0.251 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.015 EPS 0.916 0.933 0.927 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1976 134 0.939 0.062 -0.437 2.344 0.042 0.680 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.704 -0.376 0.441 35 99 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.86 1.00 1.07 1.94 7.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 124. 12. 111. 117. 129. 134. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.675 0.690 0.647 0.680 0.656 0.578 0.555 0.535 0.507 0.501 PACF 0.675 0.430 0.205 0.253 0.149 -0.081 -0.058 -0.023 -0.047 0.045 95% C.L. 0.173 0.239 0.292 0.332 0.372 0.405 0.429 0.450 0.468 0.484 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.659 0.153 0.220 0.109 0.258 0.186 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 375011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00379340 1.09506524 2 375012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133568 0.98896420 3 375021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005909 1.02046502 4 375022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099922 1.03452587 5 375031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023631 1.02616775 6 375032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105756 0.89819390 7 375041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153136 1.01170909 8 375042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205819 0.94988304 9 375051 1 0.22959433 0.00797216 0.00000000 0.76564837 10 375052 1 0.29786205 0.01042161 0.00000000 0.76097625 11 375061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00091754 1.06507969 12 375062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00389214 1.11618841 13 376071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124318 1.09502053 14 376072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016407 1.03977060 15 376081 1 0.22705717 0.02046971 0.00000000 0.85429591 16 376082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094033 0.89336741 17 376091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056270 0.90736580 18 376092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052240 0.91318035 19 376101 1 0.59422922 0.00478282 0.00000000 0.48387909 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 376102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090452 0.97158432 21 376111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00190900 0.99149877 22 376112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097501 1.00827694 23 376121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00233587 1.05214143 24 376122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112712 1.05497360 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 375011 1849 1976 128 0.998 0.120 -0.480 3.378 0.088 0.526 2 375012 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.098 -0.861 3.492 0.076 0.525 3 375021 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.046 -0.232 3.027 0.041 0.252 4 375022 1846 1975 130 1.000 0.067 -0.504 3.113 0.051 0.552 5 375031 1852 1976 125 1.000 0.044 -0.702 3.467 0.048 0.125 6 375032 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.067 -0.199 2.830 0.053 0.474 7 375041 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.082 -1.100 4.573 0.075 0.176 8 375042 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.106 -0.816 4.433 0.105 0.162 9 375051 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.085 -1.017 3.722 0.075 0.363 10 375052 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.077 -1.127 5.072 0.061 0.518 11 375061 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.063 -0.705 3.572 0.055 0.414 12 375062 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.077 -0.193 2.941 0.068 0.407 13 376071 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.073 -1.137 6.793 0.051 0.555 14 376072 1861 1976 116 1.000 0.042 -1.544 9.985 0.039 0.159 15 376081 1862 1976 115 1.000 0.063 -0.588 3.370 0.060 0.295 16 376082 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.100 -0.757 3.466 0.102 0.218 17 376091 1846 1976 131 1.000 0.089 -1.305 4.381 0.059 0.615 18 376092 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.089 -2.366 11.578 0.062 0.573 19 376101 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.081 -0.197 2.741 0.059 0.575 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 376102 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.092 -1.108 5.327 0.068 0.534 21 376111 1866 1976 111 1.000 0.080 -0.872 3.728 0.074 0.296 22 376112 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.073 -1.923 9.556 0.060 0.347 23 376121 1848 1976 129 0.999 0.113 -0.967 3.977 0.081 0.503 24 376122 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.089 -0.952 3.433 0.058 0.659 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 124 1.000 0.080 -0.902 4.665 0.065 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.020 0.530 2.404 0.017 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.081 -0.867 3.647 0.061 0.444 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.023 0.571 1.448 0.021 0.269 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.998 0.042 -2.366 2.741 0.039 0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.067 -1.118 3.374 0.054 0.273 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.091 -0.546 4.822 0.075 0.543 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.120 -0.193 11.578 0.105 0.659 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 375011 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 375012 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 375021 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 375022 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 375031 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 375032 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 375041 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 375042 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 375051 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 375052 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 375061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 375062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 376071 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 376072 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 376081 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 376082 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 376091 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 376092 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 376101 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 376102 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 376111 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 376112 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 376121 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 376122 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 375011 1849 1976 128 0.999 0.094 -0.092 3.631 0.087 0.238 2 375012 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.073 -0.173 3.330 0.075 0.175 3 375021 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.042 -0.239 2.894 0.041 0.118 4 375022 1846 1975 130 1.000 0.050 -0.128 3.727 0.050 0.208 5 375031 1852 1976 125 1.000 0.043 -0.692 3.504 0.048 0.072 6 375032 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.055 -0.630 3.613 0.053 0.198 7 375041 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.077 -1.041 4.808 0.075 0.070 8 375042 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.102 -0.595 5.254 0.105 0.095 9 375051 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.077 -0.861 3.771 0.075 0.207 10 375052 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.070 -0.951 4.663 0.061 0.428 11 375061 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.050 -0.773 3.792 0.055 0.058 12 375062 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.071 -0.337 2.817 0.067 0.311 13 376071 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.062 -1.730 9.009 0.050 0.374 14 376072 1861 1976 116 1.000 0.040 -1.538 10.231 0.039 0.084 15 376081 1862 1976 115 1.000 0.061 -0.609 3.327 0.060 0.250 16 376082 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.093 -0.661 3.234 0.102 0.089 17 376091 1846 1976 131 1.000 0.071 -1.190 5.950 0.059 0.413 18 376092 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.079 -2.659 14.812 0.062 0.469 19 376101 1857 1976 120 0.999 0.061 -0.500 3.865 0.059 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 376102 1848 1976 129 0.999 0.079 -1.945 9.763 0.068 0.383 21 376111 1866 1976 111 1.000 0.073 -0.796 3.968 0.074 0.182 22 376112 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.061 -2.168 12.448 0.061 0.067 23 376121 1848 1976 129 0.999 0.081 -0.184 3.604 0.081 0.051 24 376122 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.059 0.129 5.935 0.057 0.099 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 124 1.000 0.068 -0.848 5.498 0.065 0.203 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.017 0.709 3.275 0.017 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.071 -0.676 3.829 0.061 0.190 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.021 0.828 2.389 0.021 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 111 0.999 0.040 -2.659 2.817 0.039 0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.057 -1.116 3.554 0.054 0.086 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.078 -0.288 5.943 0.075 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.102 0.129 14.812 0.105 0.469 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.242 0.123 0.007 0.356 3.226 -0.040 0.652 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 375052 AND 376071 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.652 SERIES 375051 AND 375052 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.276 0.304 0.273 SDEV 0.161 0.152 0.156 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.902 0.913 0.900 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1976 134 1.001 0.037 -0.483 3.104 0.042 0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.342 -0.170 0.222 65 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.73 1.00 1.12 1.85 7.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.028 0.116 0.057 0.182 0.102 -0.021 -0.053 0.002 -0.075 -0.007 PACF 0.028 0.115 0.051 0.169 0.088 -0.064 -0.094 -0.032 -0.096 0.008 95% C.L. 0.173 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.184 0.184 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.023 0.040 -0.008 0.135 0.040 -0.074 -0.154 -0.041 -0.044 0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.023 2 -0.022 0.039 3 -0.022 0.039 -0.007 4 -0.021 0.034 -0.004 0.133 5 -0.027 0.034 -0.005 0.134 0.047 6 -0.023 0.045 -0.006 0.137 0.045 -0.084 7 -0.037 0.053 0.017 0.136 0.053 -0.087 -0.164 8 -0.047 0.047 0.020 0.145 0.054 -0.084 -0.166 -0.065 9 -0.050 0.039 0.016 0.147 0.061 -0.083 -0.164 -0.067 -0.049 10 -0.049 0.041 0.020 0.150 0.059 -0.087 -0.164 -0.068 -0.047 0.027 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 598.98 600.91 602.70 604.69 604.30 606.00 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 607.06 605.41 606.85 608.53 610.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 375011 0 0.058 2 375012 0 0.032 3 375021 0 0.015 4 375022 0 0.043 5 375031 0 0.005 6 375032 0 0.041 7 375041 0 0.005 8 375042 0 0.009 9 375051 0 0.045 10 375052 0 0.184 11 375061 0 0.003 12 375062 0 0.100 13 376071 0 0.144 14 376072 0 0.007 15 376081 0 0.064 16 376082 0 0.008 17 376091 0 0.174 18 376092 0 0.239 19 376101 0 0.057 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 376102 0 0.150 21 376111 0 0.036 22 376112 0 0.005 23 376121 0 0.003 24 376122 0 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.060 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.068 MEDIAN 0 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.003 LOWER HINGE 0 0.008 UPPER HINGE 0 0.082 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.239 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 375011 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.094 -0.092 3.631 0.087 0.238 2 375012 1843 1976 134 1.000 0.073 -0.173 3.330 0.075 0.175 3 375021 1859 1976 118 1.000 0.042 -0.239 2.894 0.041 0.118 4 375022 1846 1975 130 1.000 0.050 -0.128 3.727 0.050 0.208 5 375031 1852 1976 125 1.000 0.043 -0.692 3.504 0.048 0.072 6 375032 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.055 -0.630 3.613 0.053 0.198 7 375041 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.077 -1.041 4.808 0.075 0.070 8 375042 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.102 -0.595 5.254 0.105 0.095 9 375051 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.077 -0.861 3.771 0.075 0.207 10 375052 1854 1976 123 1.000 0.070 -0.951 4.663 0.061 0.428 11 375061 1844 1976 133 1.000 0.050 -0.773 3.792 0.055 0.058 12 375062 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.071 -0.337 2.817 0.067 0.311 13 376071 1864 1976 113 1.000 0.062 -1.730 9.009 0.050 0.374 14 376072 1861 1976 116 1.000 0.040 -1.538 10.231 0.039 0.084 15 376081 1862 1976 115 1.000 0.061 -0.609 3.327 0.060 0.250 16 376082 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.093 -0.661 3.234 0.102 0.089 17 376091 1846 1976 131 1.000 0.071 -1.190 5.950 0.059 0.413 18 376092 1849 1976 128 1.000 0.079 -2.659 14.812 0.062 0.469 19 376101 1857 1976 120 1.000 0.061 -0.500 3.865 0.059 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 376102 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.079 -1.945 9.763 0.068 0.383 21 376111 1866 1976 111 1.000 0.073 -0.796 3.968 0.074 0.182 22 376112 1853 1976 124 1.000 0.061 -2.168 12.448 0.061 0.067 23 376121 1848 1976 129 1.000 0.081 -0.184 3.604 0.081 0.051 24 376122 1854 1975 122 1.000 0.059 0.129 5.935 0.057 0.099 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 124 1.000 0.068 -0.848 5.498 0.065 0.203 STANDARD DEVIATION 7 0.000 0.017 0.709 3.275 0.017 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 124 1.000 0.071 -0.676 3.829 0.061 0.190 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 12 0.000 0.021 0.828 2.389 0.021 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 111 1.000 0.040 -2.659 2.817 0.039 0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 117 1.000 0.057 -1.116 3.554 0.054 0.086 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.078 -0.288 5.943 0.075 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 134 1.000 0.102 0.129 14.812 0.105 0.469 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.242 0.123 0.007 0.356 3.226 -0.040 0.652 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.040 SERIES 375052 AND 376071 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.652 SERIES 375051 AND 375052 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 89.13 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 276. 276. 276. RBAR 0.276 0.304 0.273 SDEV 0.161 0.152 0.156 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.902 0.913 0.900 NSS 24.0 24.0 24.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1976 134 1.001 0.037 -0.483 3.106 0.042 0.028 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.340 -0.170 0.222 65 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.73 1.00 1.11 1.84 7.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.028 0.116 0.057 0.182 0.102 -0.021 -0.052 0.001 -0.075 -0.008 PACF 0.028 0.115 0.051 0.169 0.088 -0.064 -0.094 -0.032 -0.096 0.008 95% C.L. 0.173 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1843 1976 134 1.001 0.037 -0.483 3.106 0.042 0.028 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.028 0.116 0.057 0.182 0.102 -0.021 -0.052 0.001 -0.075 -0.008 PACF 0.028 0.115 0.051 0.169 0.088 -0.064 -0.094 -0.032 -0.096 0.008 95% C.L. 0.173 0.173 0.175 0.176 0.181 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES