RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit020e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit020e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 569 1 Glen Derry WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 569 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 457 5701-334 1773 1978 - 569 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 569012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 569021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1821 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 569041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 568102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 568111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 568112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1907 1920 / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.538 0.729 2.259 12.631 0.189 0.764 2 569012 1773 1978 206 0.665 0.387 1.214 4.081 0.220 0.883 3 569021 1779 1978 200 0.772 0.480 1.622 4.822 0.208 0.903 4 569022 1809 1978 170 0.612 0.286 0.962 3.878 0.241 0.804 5 569031 1779 1978 200 0.602 0.391 0.796 2.805 0.238 0.915 6 569032 1806 1978 173 0.528 0.350 0.654 2.535 0.269 0.885 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.125 0.595 1.059 3.686 0.200 0.874 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.073 0.554 1.351 4.784 0.186 0.864 9 569051 1811 1978 168 0.908 0.767 1.574 4.540 0.203 0.923 10 569052 1784 1978 195 0.921 0.387 1.091 4.351 0.172 0.822 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.151 0.474 1.325 5.052 0.217 0.783 12 569062 1796 1978 183 0.594 0.266 0.839 3.755 0.279 0.699 13 569071 1817 1978 162 0.578 0.275 1.664 6.960 0.283 0.628 14 569072 1790 1978 189 0.471 0.371 2.181 7.808 0.293 0.826 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.220 0.271 0.439 3.076 0.158 0.611 16 569082 1810 1978 169 0.994 0.418 0.539 2.843 0.176 0.869 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.361 0.456 0.084 2.332 0.159 0.837 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.343 0.355 0.188 2.338 0.137 0.809 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.014 0.404 1.953 8.636 0.168 0.796 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 0.827 0.544 1.533 4.743 0.190 0.908 21 568111 1786 1978 193 0.866 0.646 1.617 5.064 0.222 0.938 22 568112 1773 1978 206 0.703 0.725 1.876 5.799 0.284 0.953 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.424 0.605 0.350 2.726 0.180 0.834 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.914 0.412 0.185 3.024 0.210 0.829 25 568121 1810 1978 169 1.424 0.605 0.350 2.726 0.180 0.834 26 568122 1801 1978 178 0.914 0.412 0.185 3.024 0.210 0.829 27 572131 1878 1978 101 0.557 0.205 0.766 3.594 0.257 0.720 28 572132 1856 1978 123 1.281 0.458 0.899 3.512 0.212 0.729 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 28 FROM 1773 TO 1978 206 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 0.942 0.458 1.056 4.469 0.212 0.824 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.313 0.150 0.642 2.260 0.042 0.086 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 0.914 0.415 1.011 3.817 0.209 0.832 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.547 0.212 1.107 2.003 0.059 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.471 0.205 0.084 2.332 0.137 0.611 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 150 0.639 0.363 0.489 2.934 0.180 0.790 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 1.186 0.575 1.596 4.937 0.239 0.884 MAXIMUM VALUE 205 1.538 0.767 2.259 12.631 0.293 0.953 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.466 0.228 0.012 -0.380 2.697 -0.226 1.000 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.226 SERIES 569061 AND 568112 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 1.000 SERIES 568121 AND 568121 169 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 45. 210. 300. 378. 378. RBAR 0.371 0.437 0.225 0.113 0.307 0.186 SDEV 0.000 0.331 0.288 0.257 0.233 0.227 SERR 0.000 0.049 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.851 0.942 0.880 0.777 0.925 0.865 NSS 9.7 20.7 25.2 27.3 28.0 28.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 1.005 0.402 1.053 4.420 0.112 0.925 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.691 0.310 0.190 58 148 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.56 1.00 1.08 1.64 5.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.63 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 169. 35. 101. 151. 186. 206. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.921 0.872 0.819 0.781 0.757 0.742 0.723 0.706 0.677 0.656 PACF 0.921 0.163 -0.024 0.069 0.118 0.081 0.010 0.021 -0.052 0.030 95% C.L. 0.139 0.229 0.286 0.329 0.363 0.392 0.419 0.442 0.464 0.482 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.883 0.643 0.311 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183026 1.68942642 2 569012 1 1.23105562 0.02332324 0.00000000 0.41212383 3 569021 1 1.84866345 0.03111367 0.00000000 0.48036236 4 569022 1 0.97409922 0.01477353 0.00000000 0.25824356 5 569031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00564682 1.16915584 6 569032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00538543 0.99697202 7 569041 1 1.98159397 0.01894714 0.00000000 0.49482283 8 569042 1 1.90566075 0.02464897 0.00000000 0.60186195 9 569051 1 3.01247692 0.02913861 0.00000000 0.30623111 10 569052 1 1.07587647 0.01514290 0.00000000 0.57811266 11 569061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114003 1.23214793 12 569062 1 0.79062510 0.03877500 0.00000000 0.48502323 13 569071 1 0.84867829 0.03623151 0.00000000 0.43600988 14 569072 1 1.58574057 0.04487896 0.00000000 0.28794256 15 569081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00487138 1.50236619 16 569082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00719629 1.60576713 17 569091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00775961 1.93101656 18 569092 1 1.33619273 0.00813061 0.00000000 0.56357539 19 568101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00284964 1.20491111 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 1 1.95010769 0.03281120 0.00000000 0.48267516 21 568111 1 2.54366422 0.03087508 0.00000000 0.44318518 22 568112 1 2.98339009 0.02997156 0.00000000 0.18494508 23 568121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00890100 2.18013525 24 568122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00536774 1.39440107 25 568121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00890100 2.18013525 26 568122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00536774 1.39440107 27 572131 1 0.61768675 0.06184477 0.00000000 0.46175128 28 572132 1 1.42973781 0.01885678 0.00000000 0.73010367 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.478 2.346 12.524 0.188 0.763 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.415 1.580 6.568 0.218 0.740 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.002 0.304 0.387 2.912 0.205 0.629 4 569022 1809 1978 170 0.999 0.257 0.253 3.297 0.239 0.358 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.106 0.672 4.344 29.175 0.237 0.743 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.077 0.787 4.038 23.659 0.271 0.757 7 569041 1823 1978 156 0.999 0.289 0.642 3.576 0.202 0.634 8 569042 1820 1978 159 0.999 0.270 0.647 3.269 0.186 0.595 9 569051 1811 1978 168 0.995 0.316 0.822 4.275 0.201 0.663 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.293 0.305 2.559 0.171 0.748 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.410 1.340 5.053 0.215 0.773 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.371 0.685 3.836 0.278 0.526 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.321 0.400 3.354 0.281 0.395 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.002 0.393 1.005 4.166 0.290 0.467 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.176 0.401 3.219 0.156 0.384 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.009 0.246 0.181 2.796 0.174 0.617 17 569091 1833 1978 146 0.998 0.235 0.127 2.957 0.158 0.656 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.181 -0.150 3.721 0.136 0.568 19 568101 1846 1978 133 0.999 0.375 1.813 8.026 0.167 0.764 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.001 0.369 0.355 2.730 0.191 0.790 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.001 0.393 0.945 4.575 0.228 0.751 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.388 1.129 5.369 0.283 0.457 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.992 0.306 0.731 3.378 0.179 0.715 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.984 0.356 0.350 2.949 0.209 0.722 25 568121 1810 1978 169 0.992 0.306 0.731 3.378 0.179 0.715 26 568122 1801 1978 178 0.984 0.356 0.350 2.949 0.209 0.722 27 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.286 0.502 4.212 0.254 0.463 28 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.217 -0.060 2.599 0.210 0.328 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.005 0.349 0.936 5.753 0.211 0.623 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.025 0.131 1.077 6.230 0.042 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.319 0.645 3.477 0.207 0.660 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.002 0.112 0.716 1.861 0.059 0.250 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.984 0.176 -0.150 2.559 0.136 0.328 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.999 0.278 0.350 2.953 0.179 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 1.001 0.390 1.067 4.814 0.238 0.746 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.106 0.787 4.344 29.175 0.290 0.790 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 569012 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 569021 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 569022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 569031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 569032 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 569041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 569042 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 569051 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 569052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 569061 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 569062 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 569071 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 569072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 569081 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 569082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 569091 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 569092 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 568101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 568111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 568112 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 568121 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 568122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 568121 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 568122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 572131 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 572132 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 0.990 0.441 2.346 13.112 0.188 0.742 2 569012 1773 1978 206 0.996 0.390 1.541 6.830 0.218 0.718 3 569021 1779 1978 200 0.992 0.261 0.452 2.967 0.205 0.526 4 569022 1809 1978 170 0.998 0.246 0.288 3.311 0.239 0.292 5 569031 1779 1978 200 0.995 0.378 0.911 5.445 0.237 0.697 6 569032 1806 1978 173 0.979 0.450 0.855 4.048 0.270 0.725 7 569041 1823 1978 156 0.999 0.283 0.579 3.497 0.202 0.620 8 569042 1820 1978 159 0.998 0.229 0.367 2.879 0.185 0.477 9 569051 1811 1978 168 0.996 0.251 0.715 4.180 0.202 0.457 10 569052 1784 1978 195 0.992 0.247 0.128 2.592 0.171 0.659 11 569061 1838 1978 141 0.997 0.311 0.946 4.342 0.215 0.597 12 569062 1796 1978 183 0.999 0.359 0.730 4.143 0.277 0.477 13 569071 1817 1978 162 0.999 0.309 0.449 3.468 0.281 0.345 14 569072 1790 1978 189 0.998 0.381 0.961 4.084 0.290 0.440 15 569081 1864 1978 115 0.999 0.164 0.259 3.077 0.156 0.288 16 569082 1810 1978 169 0.998 0.223 0.159 2.942 0.174 0.550 17 569091 1833 1978 146 0.998 0.216 0.069 3.115 0.158 0.597 18 569092 1833 1978 146 0.999 0.175 0.180 4.146 0.136 0.539 19 568101 1846 1978 133 0.997 0.335 1.190 5.407 0.167 0.723 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 0.998 0.359 0.427 3.234 0.191 0.783 21 568111 1786 1978 193 0.995 0.373 1.008 5.300 0.228 0.726 22 568112 1773 1978 206 0.992 0.344 0.850 4.378 0.284 0.326 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.996 0.273 0.755 3.428 0.179 0.661 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.993 0.307 0.642 3.372 0.209 0.603 25 568121 1810 1978 169 0.996 0.273 0.755 3.428 0.179 0.661 26 568122 1801 1978 178 0.993 0.307 0.642 3.372 0.209 0.603 27 572131 1878 1978 101 0.999 0.278 0.440 4.157 0.254 0.429 28 572132 1856 1978 123 0.999 0.213 -0.073 2.620 0.210 0.299 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 0.996 0.299 0.663 4.174 0.211 0.556 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.004 0.075 0.494 2.003 0.042 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 0.997 0.295 0.642 3.483 0.207 0.597 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.004 0.113 0.555 1.086 0.060 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.979 0.164 -0.073 2.592 0.136 0.288 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 0.994 0.246 0.328 3.175 0.179 0.449 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 0.998 0.359 0.883 4.261 0.238 0.679 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 0.999 0.450 2.346 13.112 0.290 0.783 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.148 0.157 0.008 0.853 7.189 -0.321 1.000 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.321 SERIES 569012 AND 569051 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 1.000 SERIES 568121 AND 568121 169 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 45. 210. 300. 378. 378. RBAR -0.315 0.165 0.155 0.141 0.202 0.158 SDEV 0.000 0.242 0.248 0.241 0.217 0.211 SERR 0.000 0.036 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.011 EPS 1.763 0.804 0.822 0.818 0.876 0.841 NSS 9.7 20.7 25.2 27.3 28.0 28.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.980 0.122 -0.098 4.795 0.112 0.371 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.223 0.129 0.128 77 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.40 1.00 1.09 1.48 2.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.48 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.369 0.222 0.023 -0.009 -0.023 0.029 0.038 0.048 0.028 -0.004 PACF 0.369 0.100 -0.103 -0.010 0.003 0.049 0.018 0.016 -0.001 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.139 0.157 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.145 0.370 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.332 0.179 -0.016 -0.056 -0.046 0.004 0.012 0.027 0.057 0.053 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.332 2 0.307 0.077 3 0.315 0.111 -0.110 4 0.311 0.115 -0.097 -0.039 5 0.311 0.116 -0.098 -0.041 0.005 6 0.311 0.117 -0.095 -0.045 -0.005 0.033 7 0.311 0.117 -0.095 -0.044 -0.006 0.032 0.001 8 0.311 0.117 -0.094 -0.044 -0.004 0.031 -0.003 0.012 9 0.310 0.117 -0.096 -0.044 -0.002 0.036 -0.008 -0.003 0.048 10 0.309 0.117 -0.096 -0.045 -0.002 0.037 -0.006 -0.006 0.041 0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1559.10 1536.98 1537.74 1537.26 1538.94 1540.93 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1542.71 1544.71 1546.68 1548.21 1550.10 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.332 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.332 0.110 0.037 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 569011 1 0.554 0.743 2 569012 1 0.535 0.723 3 569021 1 0.326 0.528 4 569022 1 0.121 0.293 5 569031 1 0.547 0.734 6 569032 1 0.581 0.760 7 569041 1 0.387 0.621 8 569042 1 0.231 0.477 9 569051 1 0.224 0.474 10 569052 1 0.444 0.665 11 569061 1 0.386 0.621 12 569062 1 0.251 0.478 13 569071 1 0.120 0.345 14 569072 1 0.200 0.440 15 569081 1 0.095 0.291 16 569082 1 0.314 0.550 17 569091 1 0.367 0.605 18 569092 1 0.294 0.541 19 568101 1 0.534 0.727 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 568102 1 0.614 0.784 21 568111 1 0.529 0.727 22 568112 1 0.180 0.327 23 568121 1 0.439 0.662 24 568122 1 0.368 0.605 25 568121 1 0.439 0.662 26 568122 1 0.368 0.605 27 572131 1 0.205 0.436 28 572132 1 0.095 0.301 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.348 0.562 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.159 0.155 MEDIAN 1 0.368 0.605 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.272 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.095 0.291 LOWER HINGE 1 0.214 0.457 UPPER HINGE 1 0.487 0.694 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.614 0.784 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.295 3.381 25.244 0.257 0.050 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.269 1.323 6.995 0.287 -0.111 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.222 0.455 3.502 0.252 -0.132 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.235 0.344 2.885 0.273 -0.056 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.256 0.428 3.551 0.270 0.124 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.292 -0.102 3.198 0.337 -0.030 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.222 0.605 3.504 0.257 -0.034 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.201 0.323 2.702 0.222 0.032 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.221 0.522 4.593 0.237 0.021 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.184 0.001 3.414 0.216 -0.030 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.243 0.881 4.127 0.258 0.027 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.316 0.939 4.297 0.334 -0.083 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.290 0.565 3.639 0.319 -0.007 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.342 0.827 3.874 0.352 -0.039 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.157 0.187 3.010 0.177 -0.032 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.186 -0.113 2.691 0.217 -0.070 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.172 -0.030 2.982 0.197 -0.018 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.147 0.291 3.795 0.170 -0.029 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.229 0.034 5.893 0.242 -0.082 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.223 0.363 3.599 0.251 -0.002 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.256 0.664 5.238 0.284 -0.029 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.325 0.988 5.180 0.325 -0.093 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.205 0.595 3.283 0.224 0.032 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.245 0.695 4.152 0.262 0.040 25 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.205 0.595 3.283 0.224 0.032 26 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.245 0.695 4.152 0.262 0.040 27 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.250 0.279 3.416 0.282 0.057 28 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.203 -0.089 2.524 0.237 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.000 0.237 0.559 4.597 0.258 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 26 0.000 0.049 0.661 4.170 0.046 0.058 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.232 0.488 3.575 0.257 -0.026 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 35 0.000 0.059 0.462 0.984 0.060 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.147 -0.113 2.524 0.170 -0.132 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 151 1.000 0.204 0.233 3.240 0.224 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 186 1.000 0.263 0.695 4.224 0.283 0.032 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.342 3.381 25.244 0.352 0.124 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 378 0.222 0.117 0.006 1.606 12.556 -0.092 1.000 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.092 SERIES 569012 AND 569051 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 1.000 SERIES 568121 AND 568121 169 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 73.45 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 45. 210. 300. 378. 378. RBAR -0.074 0.229 0.215 0.229 0.265 0.230 SDEV 0.000 0.178 0.172 0.164 0.151 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.012 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS -2.015 0.860 0.873 0.890 0.910 0.893 NSS 9.7 20.7 25.2 27.3 28.0 28.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.990 0.114 0.056 3.386 0.144 -0.215 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.241 0.120 0.074 73 133 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.58 1.00 1.11 1.69 22.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.60 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.214 0.063 -0.117 -0.025 -0.048 -0.006 0.023 0.004 0.027 -0.047 PACF -0.214 0.019 -0.104 -0.076 -0.067 -0.043 0.003 -0.006 0.016 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.139 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.046 -0.215 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.004 -0.118 -0.066 -0.060 -0.012 0.024 0.015 0.021 -0.043 PACF 0.004 -0.004 -0.118 -0.066 -0.062 -0.028 0.007 -0.004 0.009 -0.047 95% C.L. 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.990 0.117 -0.110 4.557 0.114 0.322 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 0.059 -0.112 -0.115 -0.092 -0.032 0.015 0.020 0.014 -0.030 PACF 0.320 -0.048 -0.131 -0.041 -0.040 -0.002 0.013 -0.008 -0.003 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.139 0.153 0.153 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.105 0.321 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES