RUN: brit FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: brit020n.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: brit020n.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 569 1 Glen Derry DENSITY_MINIMUM PISY - 569 2 Great Britain Scots pine, Scotch pine 457 5701-334 1773 1978 - 569 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 569011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 569012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1905 1909 / 1948 1952 / 1970 1970 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 569021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1812 1816 / 1821 1821 / 1852 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 569041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 569082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1904 1908 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 569092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 568102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1875 1879 / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 568111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1928 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 568112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 2 GAPS / 1907 1920 / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 568121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1883 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 568122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 572131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1915 1919 / 1923 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 0.347 0.023 0.775 4.311 0.054 0.461 2 569012 1773 1978 206 0.356 0.025 0.366 3.607 0.056 0.497 3 569021 1779 1978 200 0.371 0.025 0.325 2.566 0.046 0.593 4 569022 1809 1978 170 0.394 0.028 0.657 3.232 0.046 0.593 5 569031 1779 1978 200 0.381 0.040 -2.702 29.225 0.072 0.404 6 569032 1806 1978 173 0.391 0.028 0.279 2.749 0.055 0.555 7 569041 1823 1978 156 0.349 0.034 4.738 40.623 0.065 0.135 8 569042 1820 1978 159 0.335 0.024 0.297 3.145 0.045 0.692 9 569051 1811 1978 168 0.336 0.029 1.108 8.563 0.051 0.570 10 569052 1784 1978 195 0.313 0.027 0.706 3.386 0.053 0.720 11 569061 1838 1978 141 0.351 0.029 0.393 2.273 0.039 0.798 12 569062 1796 1978 183 0.396 0.030 0.646 3.114 0.053 0.626 13 569071 1817 1978 162 0.406 0.025 0.306 2.838 0.044 0.568 14 569072 1790 1978 189 0.401 0.033 0.515 4.048 0.052 0.680 15 569081 1864 1978 115 0.303 0.016 0.209 2.652 0.039 0.525 16 569082 1810 1978 169 0.312 0.022 0.058 3.748 0.051 0.543 17 569091 1833 1978 146 0.323 0.022 -0.091 2.772 0.045 0.652 18 569092 1833 1978 146 0.298 0.019 0.135 2.751 0.050 0.482 19 568101 1846 1978 133 0.333 0.022 0.032 3.254 0.056 0.435 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 0.342 0.023 -0.282 3.507 0.053 0.490 21 568111 1786 1978 193 0.368 0.026 0.351 3.659 0.054 0.500 22 568112 1773 1978 206 0.402 0.058 0.952 5.255 0.069 0.736 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.327 0.027 0.218 2.592 0.048 0.695 24 568122 1801 1978 178 0.329 0.029 0.207 2.941 0.060 0.644 25 572131 1878 1978 101 0.379 0.023 0.081 2.734 0.060 0.311 26 572132 1856 1978 123 0.387 0.023 -0.019 2.783 0.045 0.533 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1773 TO 1978 206 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 163 0.355 0.027 0.395 5.859 0.052 0.555 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.033 0.008 1.115 8.793 0.008 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 0.350 0.025 0.302 3.188 0.052 0.561 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.058 0.006 0.565 0.996 0.009 0.162 MINIMUM VALUE 91 0.298 0.016 -2.702 2.273 0.039 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.329 0.023 0.081 2.751 0.046 0.490 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.387 0.029 0.646 3.748 0.056 0.652 MAXIMUM VALUE 200 0.406 0.058 4.738 40.623 0.072 0.798 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.141 0.196 0.011 -0.318 2.664 -0.401 0.586 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.401 SERIES 569091 AND 568121 146 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.586 SERIES 569061 AND 569072 141 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.505 0.155 0.190 0.233 0.130 0.181 SDEV 0.000 0.262 0.240 0.294 0.250 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.018 0.018 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.901 0.776 0.845 0.885 0.796 0.852 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.355 0.014 -0.696 5.187 0.033 0.348 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.186 -0.025 63 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.39 1.01 1.07 1.46 15.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.31 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 169. 43. 101. 146. 189. 206. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.346 0.221 0.193 0.193 0.144 0.041 0.143 0.228 0.276 0.210 PACF 0.346 0.114 0.099 0.097 0.030 -0.067 0.118 0.157 0.165 0.048 95% C.L. 0.139 0.155 0.161 0.166 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.175 0.180 0.188 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.169 0.281 0.072 0.099 0.114 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 1 0.04834612 0.03544585 0.00000000 0.33876607 2 569012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008586 0.34765434 3 569021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023206 0.39558834 4 569022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001568 0.39277688 5 569031 1 0.05046263 0.00123159 0.00000000 0.33600372 6 569032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000515 0.39160371 7 569041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007802 0.34240443 8 569042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023570 0.31604967 9 569051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030620 0.30966210 10 569052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016739 0.29636478 11 569061 1 0.09246281 0.01404168 0.00000000 0.31073868 12 569062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027473 0.37024441 13 569071 1 0.06584480 0.00673300 0.00000000 0.36640984 14 569072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005405 0.39634639 15 569081 1 0.04345063 0.02194349 0.00000000 0.28764075 16 569082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007680 0.30525535 17 569091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002208 0.32118565 18 569092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010940 0.29058343 19 568101 1 0.02283750 0.03088282 0.00000000 0.32724714 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015724 0.32989639 21 568111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002682 0.37058109 22 568112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071625 0.33405316 23 568121 1 0.06072323 0.06942924 0.00000000 0.32091373 24 568122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007100 0.32238191 25 572131 1 0.03693901 0.05649672 0.00000000 0.37208703 26 572132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003154 0.38528055 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.058 0.144 3.181 0.053 0.290 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.069 0.429 3.671 0.056 0.447 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.056 0.121 2.865 0.046 0.430 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.071 0.637 3.177 0.046 0.590 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.104 -2.801 29.995 0.072 0.402 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.072 0.276 2.738 0.055 0.552 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.099 5.228 46.323 0.065 0.118 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.065 0.189 2.759 0.045 0.604 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.075 1.186 7.901 0.051 0.428 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.082 0.352 2.878 0.053 0.679 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.053 0.325 3.812 0.039 0.527 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.066 0.179 2.554 0.052 0.500 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.052 0.274 2.790 0.044 0.399 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.083 0.609 4.096 0.052 0.674 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.040 -0.112 2.892 0.039 0.155 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.068 0.077 3.459 0.053 0.485 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.068 -0.060 2.747 0.045 0.647 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.062 0.251 2.839 0.049 0.470 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.065 -0.063 3.213 0.056 0.387 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.065 0.011 3.239 0.052 0.460 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.070 0.408 3.697 0.053 0.495 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.096 0.749 5.985 0.069 0.516 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.077 0.306 2.498 0.047 0.666 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.087 0.122 2.638 0.060 0.627 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.055 0.096 2.694 0.056 0.228 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.058 0.005 2.733 0.045 0.527 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.070 0.344 6.053 0.052 0.473 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.015 1.198 9.799 0.008 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.068 0.220 3.034 0.052 0.490 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.019 0.331 0.950 0.010 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.040 -2.801 2.498 0.039 0.118 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.058 0.077 2.747 0.046 0.402 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.077 0.408 3.697 0.056 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.104 5.228 46.323 0.072 0.679 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 569011 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 569012 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 569021 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 569022 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 569031 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 569032 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 569041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 569042 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 569051 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 569052 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 569061 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 569062 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 569071 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 569072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 569081 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 569082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 569091 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 569092 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 568101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 568102 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 568111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 568112 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 568121 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 568122 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 572131 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 572132 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.056 0.103 3.309 0.053 0.268 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.065 0.343 3.210 0.056 0.370 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.052 0.267 2.844 0.046 0.335 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.065 0.654 3.312 0.046 0.523 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.100 -3.265 35.665 0.072 0.347 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.060 0.354 2.910 0.055 0.363 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.096 5.228 46.973 0.065 0.082 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.059 0.175 2.868 0.045 0.523 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.067 1.260 9.609 0.051 0.297 10 569052 1784 1978 195 0.999 0.065 0.414 3.055 0.053 0.501 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.050 0.499 4.215 0.039 0.474 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.058 0.274 2.606 0.052 0.366 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.045 0.393 3.043 0.044 0.202 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.066 0.432 4.128 0.052 0.470 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.038 -0.181 2.974 0.039 0.063 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.060 -0.265 4.322 0.053 0.342 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.053 0.108 2.885 0.045 0.416 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.055 0.280 3.318 0.049 0.335 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.058 -0.178 3.311 0.056 0.224 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.056 0.007 3.575 0.052 0.275 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.066 0.455 3.481 0.054 0.442 22 568112 1773 1978 206 0.999 0.077 1.128 8.035 0.069 0.270 23 568121 1810 1978 169 0.999 0.063 0.085 2.715 0.048 0.495 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.073 0.338 2.972 0.060 0.482 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.054 0.083 2.697 0.057 0.190 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.050 0.052 3.422 0.045 0.371 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.062 0.348 6.594 0.052 0.347 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.014 1.263 10.469 0.008 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.060 0.277 3.310 0.052 0.355 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.011 0.349 1.218 0.010 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.038 -3.265 2.606 0.039 0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.054 0.083 2.910 0.046 0.270 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.066 0.432 4.128 0.056 0.470 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.100 5.228 46.973 0.072 0.523 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.190 0.120 0.007 -0.191 2.915 -0.137 0.508 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 569091 AND 568121 146 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.508 SERIES 569021 AND 568121 169 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.393 0.171 0.230 0.246 0.151 0.192 SDEV 0.000 0.213 0.176 0.229 0.202 0.179 SERR 0.000 0.035 0.013 0.014 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.853 0.796 0.874 0.892 0.823 0.860 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.997 0.032 0.095 2.924 0.034 0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.188 0.080 -0.027 63 143 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.58 1.00 1.13 1.72 19.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.63 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.116 0.028 0.017 0.006 0.031 0.000 0.063 0.090 0.181 0.155 PACF 0.116 0.014 0.012 0.003 0.030 -0.008 0.064 0.076 0.164 0.120 95% C.L. 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 0.117 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.134 0.052 0.066 -0.098 0.116 0.061 0.088 0.114 0.161 0.169 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.134 2 0.129 0.035 3 0.128 0.028 0.056 4 0.134 0.031 0.071 -0.119 5 0.151 0.021 0.067 -0.138 0.145 6 0.147 0.025 0.065 -0.139 0.140 0.030 7 0.144 0.013 0.076 -0.144 0.138 0.018 0.085 8 0.139 0.012 0.068 -0.135 0.133 0.017 0.077 0.060 9 0.129 -0.001 0.065 -0.158 0.156 0.006 0.075 0.037 0.167 10 0.110 -0.005 0.057 -0.158 0.138 0.024 0.067 0.037 0.152 0.116 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 918.56 916.81 918.56 919.91 919.00 916.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 918.45 918.95 920.20 916.41 915.61 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.134 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.83 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.134 0.018 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 569011 1 0.080 0.270 2 569012 1 0.142 0.372 3 569021 1 0.148 0.336 4 569022 1 0.384 0.537 5 569031 1 0.148 0.362 6 569032 1 0.154 0.363 7 569041 1 0.008 0.083 8 569042 1 0.305 0.524 9 569051 1 0.117 0.298 10 569052 1 0.269 0.502 11 569061 1 0.257 0.475 12 569062 1 0.149 0.368 13 569071 1 0.048 0.203 14 569072 1 0.246 0.480 15 569081 1 0.008 0.063 16 569082 1 0.147 0.343 17 569091 1 0.179 0.419 18 569092 1 0.134 0.336 19 568101 1 0.073 0.227 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 568102 1 0.083 0.279 21 568111 1 0.228 0.450 22 568112 1 0.103 0.270 23 568121 1 0.277 0.501 24 568122 1 0.284 0.482 25 572131 1 0.038 0.192 26 572132 1 0.138 0.371 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.159 0.350 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.129 MEDIAN 1 0.148 0.363 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.163 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.008 0.063 LOWER HINGE 1 0.083 0.270 UPPER HINGE 1 0.246 0.475 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.384 0.537 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 569011 1814 1978 165 1.000 0.054 0.231 3.439 0.062 -0.023 2 569012 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.060 0.234 3.427 0.068 -0.027 3 569021 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.049 0.370 3.483 0.056 -0.066 4 569022 1809 1978 170 1.000 0.055 0.752 4.162 0.063 -0.183 5 569031 1779 1978 200 1.000 0.093 -4.018 43.885 0.084 -0.060 6 569032 1806 1978 173 1.000 0.056 0.306 2.900 0.066 -0.058 7 569041 1823 1978 156 1.000 0.096 5.404 48.990 0.067 -0.003 8 569042 1820 1978 159 1.000 0.050 0.171 3.195 0.060 -0.107 9 569051 1811 1978 168 1.000 0.064 1.264 11.240 0.060 -0.052 10 569052 1784 1978 195 1.000 0.056 0.262 2.883 0.067 -0.074 11 569061 1838 1978 141 1.000 0.044 0.512 4.763 0.051 -0.094 12 569062 1796 1978 183 1.000 0.054 0.172 2.633 0.063 -0.045 13 569071 1817 1978 162 1.000 0.044 0.449 3.189 0.049 -0.018 14 569072 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.058 0.308 3.524 0.066 -0.076 15 569081 1864 1978 115 1.000 0.038 -0.231 2.974 0.041 -0.004 16 569082 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.057 -0.229 4.723 0.064 -0.062 17 569091 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.048 0.301 3.193 0.056 -0.028 18 569092 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.052 0.520 3.491 0.058 -0.052 19 568101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.057 -0.309 3.494 0.064 -0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 568102 1808 1978 171 1.000 0.054 0.064 3.747 0.061 -0.017 21 568111 1786 1978 193 1.000 0.059 0.515 3.949 0.069 -0.076 22 568112 1773 1978 206 1.000 0.074 1.062 7.463 0.080 -0.048 23 568121 1810 1978 169 1.000 0.054 -0.008 3.891 0.062 -0.093 24 568122 1801 1978 178 1.000 0.064 0.139 2.786 0.077 -0.125 25 572131 1878 1978 101 1.000 0.053 0.004 2.760 0.062 0.005 26 572132 1856 1978 123 1.000 0.047 -0.206 3.363 0.053 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 166 1.000 0.057 0.309 7.213 0.063 -0.055 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.013 1.387 11.704 0.009 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 169 1.000 0.055 0.248 3.487 0.063 -0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.008 0.508 0.973 0.009 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.038 -4.018 2.633 0.041 -0.183 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.050 0.004 3.189 0.058 -0.076 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.059 0.512 4.162 0.067 -0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 206 1.000 0.096 5.404 48.990 0.084 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.237 0.093 0.005 -0.364 3.245 -0.090 0.466 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 569031 AND 568122 178 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.466 SERIES 569032 AND 572131 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 72.86 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1798. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 1. 36. 171. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.399 0.181 0.268 0.263 0.221 0.259 SDEV 0.000 0.220 0.133 0.162 0.152 0.147 SERR 0.000 0.037 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.856 0.806 0.895 0.901 0.881 0.901 NSS 9.0 18.8 23.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.998 0.033 0.264 3.195 0.041 -0.263 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.201 0.075 -0.028 69 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.60 1.00 1.08 1.68 25.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.48 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.261 0.004 0.003 0.004 0.015 -0.022 0.025 0.001 0.121 0.082 PACF -0.261 -0.068 -0.015 0.001 0.018 -0.013 0.018 0.012 0.136 0.167 95% C.L. 0.139 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.073 -0.262 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.018 -0.068 0.005 0.008 0.013 -0.014 0.024 0.043 0.161 0.127 PACF -0.018 -0.069 0.003 0.004 0.014 -0.012 0.025 0.042 0.168 0.146 95% C.L. 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.144 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.018 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1773 1978 206 0.998 0.032 0.152 2.964 0.033 0.108 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.107 -0.052 -0.001 0.010 0.014 -0.008 0.031 0.071 0.186 0.153 PACF 0.107 -0.065 0.013 0.005 0.013 -0.010 0.035 0.063 0.179 0.129 95% C.L. 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.147 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 0.108 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES